With only a few days left in February, we are set for the Madness to begin. College basketball wraps up its regular season over the next week or so and then conference tournaments will be begin. The bubble is getting clearer by the day and every slate has several teams that are in must-win mode. For Thursday’s slate, there are a handful of games to analyze from both CBB DFS and betting perspective.
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This article is going to cover a lot of different aspects of the upcoming slate of games. It will highlight a CBB DFS play that stands out and a potential game I like for the upcoming night of action.
Biggest game on the slate
Wisconsin at Michigan -6.5 , O/U 133
There are a handful of ranked teams on this Thursday slate, but no matchups where any of them face off against each other. In addition to Wisconsin-Michigan, there are teams in the Pac-12 squaring off, and those always present key games on a national stage. Here, I am focusing on the Big Ten matchup.
Michigan has been all over the map at various points of this season. When they started out, they were the hottest team in the country and on the short list for top-tier squads coming off the Atlantis Tournament. Regression and injuries set in and Michigan lost five of six. With the dust settling now, they find themselves in the middle of the Big Ten pack. Still, at 18-9 and 9-7 within the conference, they have a quality resume and the talent to compete.
When healthy, Isaiah Livers and Zavier Simpson lead the Michigan offense and will determine how far they can go. Livers has been injured for stretches but seems to be getting healthy for the stretch run, which is all that matters. The Wolverines come into this game on fire having won five straight, including three on the road. This game is in Ann Arbor which is why we see Michigan as a 6.5-point favorite.
Wisconsin is also a middle-of-the-road Big Ten team, sitting at 17-10 on the season and 10-6 in conference play. Like always, they rely on a top-25-ranked defense and one of the slower paces in the country to control tempo. The team seemed to come together when Kobe King decided to leave the program and now Wisconsin relies on a bunch of contributors on offense. They never offer glamorous stat lines, but the pace keeps them in games and if they get hot from 3, they are extremely dangerous. Similar to Michigan, they come into this game on a four-game winning streak, so both teams will look to continue their hot play to close out the Big Ten season.
DFS Target
C.J. Walker – Ohio State – $5500 DraftKings
On the DFS side, there is an eight-game slate to break down featuring several Big Ten and Pac-12 matchups. Ohio State travels to Lincoln to take on Nebraska in a game that should be a win for the Buckeyes, as they are a 9.5-point favorite. Nebraska was in full rebuilding mode this year after getting rid of head coach Tim Miles and bringing in Fred Hoiberg. Ohio State sits at 18-9 on the season while Nebraska is just 7-20 and 2-14 in Big Ten play.
Ohio State gets a major tempo boost as Nebraska plays at one of the faster paces in the entire country. They want to get up and down, and at home, that should really be the priority for the Cornhuskers. This sets up for some Ohio State players to be appealing in the DFS market, and C.J. Walker at $5,500 is on that list. Walker isn’t the go-to scorer, but he contributes in every area and has now played at least 30 minutes in nine straight games. Kaleb Wesson on the inside also has a great matchup, but he is $8,200.
Walker is a 3-point threat and with the minutes secure, he should have plenty of opportunities for increased volume, which can be an issue for him. He has taken double-digit shots just once over this stretch of big minutes, but this is the type of game where we can expect him to hit that mark again. Ohio State is a little thin in the backcourt with D.J. Carton still not with the team and there is no reason to think Walker won’t be heavily involved tonight. This game on the road should stay close enough to not worry about any blowout issues, so you can spend up elsewhere while adding in a mid-priced guy in Walker.
Also considering: Trayce-Jackson Davis
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CBB Game Against the Spread
Hofstra -7.5 vs Towson
Last Thursday, I picked Hofstra as my bet and they got the job done with a 81-74 win over Drexel. The Pride have been one of the best teams against the spread this season and are the favorite to represent the CAA in the tournament. On the season as a whole, Hofstra sits at 22-7 and winners of eight straight coming into this game against Towson.
Hofstra relies on a potent offense and specifically a dynamic duo in the backcourt. Both Desure Buie and Eli Pemberton come in averaging north of 15 points per game and they are two of the best free throws shooters in the country. That may seem unimportant, but the amount of games Hofstra has closed down due to fantastic free throw shooting down the stretch is significant. In the first meeting at Towson, Hofstra came away with an eight-point victory, but that game was much earlier in the season.
Towson is a middle-of-the-road CAA team, sitting at 17-12 on the season. They also rely on offense to get the job done, but aren’t nearly as effective as Hofstra at scoring. Towson comes into the game winners of four of the last five, but most of the wins were against average-at-best CAA teams. Hofstra is as good as you will find in the conference and now Towson is on the road, which is always a bump down to a team.
The books seems to be continuously undervaluing Hofstra, and their ability to make shots cannot be overlooked. They are playing their best basketball of the season and are back at home where they are difficult to deal with. The spread is 7.5, which is sizeable, but with Buie and Pemberton in the backcourt, I think Hofstra will win going away and I will back them once again.
My Pick: Hofstra -7.5
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