College basketball season is finally upon us, and DraftKings and FanDuel continue to provide sizeable contests for DFS grinders. Examining the slate for Jan. 18, a number of core plays stand out. In this piece I’ll be locating top plays from each college basketball matchup and determining the top CBB DFS picks for your DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.
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CBB DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Core Plays | Jan. 18
St John’s vs. Connecticut
St John’s (67.5 Team Total)
Our fastest team on the slate, St John’s provides a dream matchup for opponents. The Red Storm play at a breakneck pace with horrific defense, creating the optimal DFS environment. On the other side, Connecticut plays slow, but St John’s poor defensive play general keeps scoring high. Julian Champagnie ($9,500) ranks second the slate in usage (22.1%), but his team’s low implied team total creates risk here. Champagnie is the most expensive player on the slate, and he has shown immense upside with at least 18 points in three straight games. Champagnie also provides upside with his peripheral stats. Behind Champagnie, St John’s continues to shake up their starting five. Rasheem Dunn ($4,700) started his second consecutive game and played 30 minutes. However, he went just 1-for-6 from the floor, creating buy-low potential. Greg Williams ($4,900) popped up for a 31-minute game after playing just 16 the game prior. He took 13 shots and provides some upside here. With Williams playing well, Posh Alexander ($5,900) saw his minutes cut to 27. He looks intriguing in GPP’s, but Dunn and Williams provide similar upside at cheaper prices. Josh Roberts ($3,900) rounds out the starting five, but his minutes will be limited with Vince Cole ($4,100) and a few others rotating in off the bench.
Connecticut (77 Team Total)
UConn still looks like a team to target despite losing their top player, James Bouknight, for the next month. Bouknight hasn’t played in two games, providing a decent sample of UConn’s new starting five. Tyrese Martin ($7,500) leads the way with increased usage and at least 15 points in back-to-back games. R.J. Cole ($6,300) and Brendan Adams ($4,600) round out the starting guard positions. Cole plays slightly more, but both players push 30 minutes in a condensed rotation. Cole does most of his work through the periphery, with a team-leading 29% assist rate. Adams is hesitant on the court. His price keeps him in consideration as a punt, but the upside is limited. The starting forwards are Isaiah Whaley ($7,300) and Adama Sanogo ($3,400). Sanogo barely plays and actually cedes most of his minutes to Tyler Polley ($6,000). Whaley’s shot rate, rebound rate and assist rate have all jumped 4% without Bouknight, making him a solid piece. Polley basically stands in the corner and shoots 3’s, but that gives immense upside in certain matchups. Polley attempted eight 3’s in each of his last two games while barely providing any peripheral stats.
Florida State vs. Louisville
Florida State (69.25 Team Total)
Florida State overcame the loss of Scottie Barnes ($6,600) in their most recent contest and pulled off a 7-point victory. Barnes turned his ankle last week and participated in light stretching prior to this weekend’s contest. Without Barnes, Florida State narrowed their rotation and four players reached 30 minutes. M.J. Walker ($6,200) will lead this team, but his 16.2% usage rate leaves much to be desired. However, without Barnes, Walker has 19 and 21 points in back-to-back games. RayQuan Evans ($5,400) and Anthony Polite ($5,000) will start at the other two guard positions. After scoring 24 points in his first start, Evans came back down to Earth with just 10 points in 31 minutes last time out. Polite has the worst usage rate among the starting five and doesn’t provide enough salary relief to seriously consider. The starting forwards are Raiquan Gray ($5,700) and Balsa Koprivica ($5,200). Both played exactly 30 minutes last time out, with Gray scoring 19 points and Koprivica snagging nine rebounds. Both players have displayed increased usage and warrant GPP consideration.
Louisville (71.25 Team Total)
Louisville enters this contest as a slight favorite against a strong Florida State defense. Florida State’s strength comes in the post, which leaves Carlik Jones ($9,300) and David Johnson ($6,800) to operate in the normal roles from the perimeter. Jones has a 21.9% usage rate while taking 25% of the team’s shots. He has at least 17 points in three straight games and should again pace the Cardinals in shots. Johnson plays most of Louisville’s minutes, but his usage is falling. Positively, so has his price, creating a potential buy-low opportunity on Johnson. Jae’lyn Withers ($6,700), Samuell Williamson ($5,500), and Dre Davis ($5,300) round out the starting five. Davis plays the most consistent minutes but provides the least upside. Williamson provides most of his usage through a 19% rebounding rate in his last three games. However, most of that was bolstered by a 34-minute outing, where Withers fouled out in nine minutes. Williamson has provided little upside in most contests this season. Withers provides the true post presence to this Louisville team. His shot rate and rebound rate best Williamson over the course of the season and in Louisville’s last three games. This is reflected in price, making Withers a reasonable target but not a priority.
Kansas vs. Baylor
Kansas (66 Team Total)
Entering this contest with the lowest implied team total on the slate, Kansas faces an uphill battle against potential one-seed Baylor. Kansas recently lost rotational player Bryce Thompson, potentially narrowing the minute distribution here. David McCormack ($7,800) is Kansas’ top player of late. Despite only averaging 52% of the minutes this season, McCormack finally eclipsed 30 in his most recent outing. McCormack has at least 17 points in each of his last three games and eight rebounds in two of three. Kansas simply can’t keep him off the court if they want to have a shot at winning this game. Marcus Garrett ($5,600) returned from injury to play 30-plus minutes in back-to-back games. Garrett finally showed some of last year’s upside by taking 12 shots in Kansas’ most recent game. Ochai Agbaji ($7,100) leads the team with a 18.8% shot rate. His 17.5% usage rate ranks only behind McCormack. Christian Braun ($5,100) rounds out the starting five. He only saw 25 minutes last time out, but Thompson’s injury likely keeps Braun in a sizeable role here. He makes sense as a potential punt in a shallow Kansas rotation.
Baylor (75.5 Team Total)
Second on the slate in implied team total, Baylor enters this contest ranked fourth in offensive efficiency. Jared Butler ($8,800) leads the slate in usage rate (22.8%) and has taken double-digit shots in three straight games. Also providing peripheral upside, Butler warrants consideration across formats. MaCio Teague ($6,900) and Davion Mitchell ($6,500) also play almost every minute for Baylor. Teague and Mitchell both enter this spot with 17.3% usage rates and shot rates north of 18% in their last three games. Mitchell provides more with assists and Teague enters with the superior rebounding rate. Both deserve some play here. Mark Vital ($4,800) saw his minutes jump back up to 30 in Baylor’s most recent contest. However, his 10.9% usage rate leaves much to be desired. For the moment, Vital looks best left to GPPs.
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