Now through three rounds of tournament action, the Elite Eight features a pair of games on both Monday and Tuesday. DraftKings and FanDuel continue to provide sizable contests for CBB DFS grinders. Examining the slate for the Elite Eight, a number of core CBB DFS picks stand out. Likewise, a number of core bets stand out against the market using the Awesemo OddsShopper tool.
For a more in-depth look at all the data, check out Matt Gajewski’s expert projections that will help take your CBB DFS lineups to the top of the DraftKings and FanDuel leaderboards.
CBB DFS Picks & Bets: DraftKings + FanDuel | March Madness
Oregon State originally needed to win the Pac-12 Tournament to even make the NCAA field, and now they are on a tear with wins over Tennessee, Oklahoma State and Loyola Chicago. On the other side, Houston battled through Cleveland State and Rutgers in the opening rounds before demolishing Syracuse in the Sweet 16. In this contest Houston is a 7.5-point favorite in a game with a 129-point total.
As for the betting markets, Houston continues to have significant advantages over Oregon State, ranking fifth in offensive efficiency and third in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Oregon State ranks 101st on offense and 232nd on defense. More importantly, Oregon State cedes a major mismatch inside. They rank 239th in interior defense, where Justin Gorham just demolished Syracuse. Gorham only played 28 minutes in the blowout win, but he secured 10 boards and scored 13 points in that contest.
Aside from overall efficiency, Houston also ranks sixth in rebounding and third in offensive rebounding. Oregon State ranks 218th in rebounding, creating another mismatch. With Houston also averaging just 10.8 turnovers per game (11th), too many advantages stack up in favor of the Cougars.
Best Bet — Houston -7.5
Elite Eight CBB DFS Picks
DeJon Jarreau ($6,200) — While Jarreau continues to aggravate his hip injury mid-game, it doesn’t seem to be affecting his minutes. Jarreau now has 34 and 32 minutes in back-to-back games for Houston. and has also shown incredible involvement during that span. In Houston’s game against Rutgers, Jarreau scored 17 points while grabbing five boards. Likewise, Jarreau recorded 9 points, eight rebounds and eight assists against Syracuse last time out. With an 18.5% usage rate, Jarreau continues to provide value assuming health.
Justin Gorham ($6,000) — Gorham dismantled Syracuse’s poor post presence with 13 points and 10 boards in just 28 minutes. In Houston’s two previous games, Gorham only saw 24 and 21 minutes due to foul trouble. He was routinely playing over 30 minutes prior to that, and Gorham still hasn’t reached his ceiling in the tournament. On the year he accounts for a 9.7% shot rate and 20.4% rebound rate, making him a value against Oregon State’s poor interior play.
Roman Silva ($4,800) — While Oregon State has struggled on the interior this season, they recently narrowed their rotation. Silva has now played 28 and 31 minutes in back-to-back games for Oregon State while displaying decent involvement. Silva accounts for 12% of the team’s shots and 16.8% of the rebounds in their last three games. This hasn’t led to many massive DFS performances, but the price on Silva is interesting. With few options capable of pushing 30 minutes below $5,000, Silva’s consistency deserves mention in this spot.
After falling behind in each of their first three tournament games, Arkansas found ways to get past Colgate, Texas Tech and Oral Roberts on their way to the Elite Eight. Meanwhile, Baylor demolished Hartford and Wisconsin before eventually pulling away from Villanova. As it stands, Baylor has an 8-point advantage in betting markets over Arkansas in a game totaled at 148 points.
In a projected up-tempo matchup, both teams have strengths and weaknesses here. Baylor ranks second in the country in offensive efficiency with their elite 3-point shooting. Pacing the country in 3-point percentage, Baylor can score with any team. Meanwhile, Arkansas has the 37th-ranked offense but played much of the season without multiple starters. Both defense rank in the top 25, pointing to a tight contest here.
As far as matchups go, both teams find advantages beyond the arc. Arkansas ranks 38th in interior defense but 149th from 3. Likewise, Baylor ranks 110th in interior defense and 162nd from 3. However, Arkansas has shown a tendency to play reckless at time. They commit 12.8 turnovers per game (204th), and Baylor forces the sixth-most turnovers on defense. With that said, Arkansas has an advantage on the glass, snagging 39.9 rebounds per game (13th). Baylor averages 36.3 rebounds per game (118th), but they’ve lost the rebounding battle in three straight tournament games. While both teams have advantages, taking the points with Arkansas looks like the top play. Arkansas historically starts slow as they have in all three games during March Madness. Hitting this team live is in play as well.
Best Bet — Arkansas +8
Elite Eight CBB DFS Picks
Justin Smith ($8,000) — For those looking at DFS plays, this game has significant advantages over the former. With a projected above-average pace and a 148 total, this game warrants extra attention for DFS. Smith is among the most expensive plays on the slate and warrants extra attention after playing at least 39 minutes in three straight games. Smith battled injury at points this season but now functions as Arkansas’ most involved player. Smith has a 20.6% shot rate, 29% rebound rate and 11.8% assist rate in Arkansas’ last three games. Priced just $200 above Moody, Smith stands out as the best forward play according to the Awesemo cheat sheet.
Davonte Davis ($5,700) — As for cheaper attachments to Arkansas, Davis has a laughable price. Davis has now played 34, 37 and 32 minutes in Arkansas’ last three games. In that span, Davis accounts for 19.1% of the shots, 17.5% of the rebounds and 17.7% of the assists. Davis also has at least 12 points in each of these contests, giving him a legitimate ceiling as well. Even as 8-point underdogs, Arkansas has the second-highest implied team total on the slate.
Jared Butler ($7,700) — Unlike Arkansas, Baylor’s value appears more volatile. With so much usage funneled through Butler, MaCio Teague ($6,700) and Davion Mitchell ($7,200), focusing on the studs makes more sense outside of major GPPs. Butler is still a buy-low despite playing one of the worst games of his career against Villanova. He typically shoots over 40% from 3, but Butler went 1-for-9 from beyond the arc. He still played 36 minutes, scored 9 points and provided solid peripherals. Even in his recent slump, Butler still provides a 21.7% shot rate, 10.6% rebound rate and 35% assist rate in Baylor’s last three games.
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