Now through four rounds of tournament action, the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament kicks off on Saturday with two marquee games. DraftKings and FanDuel continue to provide sizable contests for CBB DFS grinders. Examining the slate for the Final Four, a number of core CBB DFS picks stand out. Likewise, a number of core bets stand out against the market using the Awesemo OddsShopper tool.
For a more in-depth look at all the data, check out Matt Gajewski’s expert projections that will help take your CBB DFS lineups to the top of the DraftKings and FanDuel leaderboards.
Don’t miss our FREE CBB DFS picks cheat sheets for DraftKings and FanDuel Final Four lineups based on Matt’s expert projections and ownership.
CBB DFS Picks & Final Four Bets: DraftKings + FanDuel
Houston vs. Baylor
Entering the NCAA Tournament as a No. 2 seed, Houston faced arguably the easiest path to a Final Four in recent memory. After playing a subpar schedule in the AAC, the Cougars defeated Cleveland State, Rutgers, Syracuse and Oregon State. None of these teams were a single-digit seed. Meanwhile, Baylor ran through a far more challenging Big 12 schedule with just two losses. Similarly, Baylor faced the tougher competition in the tournament, knocking off Hartford, Wisconsin, Villanova and Arkansas en route to the Final Four. As it stands, Baylor is a 5-point favorite over Houston in a game totaled at 134.5 points.
Because these teams played such different schedules, handicapping this contest is difficult. Houston ranks fifth in offensive efficiency and third in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Baylor slots in as the second-ranked offense and the 22nd-ranked defense. Still, Houston has struggled at puzzling moments. Not only did Houston require a last-second comeback to overcome Rutgers in the Round of 32, but Houston dropped games to Wichita State, East Carolina and Tulsa in the regular season.
Many will also cite Houston’s rebounding advantage in this spot. Houston ranks sixth in rebounds per game (40.9) and first in offensive rebounds per game (14.3). However, it plays in one of the weakest rebounding conferences. Every one of their tournament opponents has also ranked 170th or worse in defensive rebounding. Baylor also isn’t known for its rebounding prowess, ranking 209th in the country. However, the strength of schedule looms large. Interestingly, Houston has these strong rebound numbers with its tallest starter standing 6-foot-7.
Baylor plays faster than Houston and forces a multitude of turnovers. It ranks sixth in turnovers forced, which creates another clash of styles against a Houston team that only commits 10.6 turnovers per game (332nd). Still, Baylor leads the country in 3-point shooting percentage at 41.4%. Jared Butler, MaCio Teague, Davion Mitchell, Adam Flagler and Matthew Mayer all shoot at least 40% from beyond the arc.
While bookmakers continue to respect Houston, Baylor has the superior team makeup and strength of schedule heading into this game.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”ncaab” date=”04/3/2021″ team=”Baylor”]
Best Bet: Baylor -5
Player Prop: Quentin Grimes Over 4.5 Rebounds on FanDuel
Grimes projects for 6.4 rebounds and faces a Baylor team playing at an above-average pace. Grimes stands 6-foot-5 and already averages 5.8 rebounds per game. Accounting for 14.4% of the rebounds in Houston’s last three, Grimes over 4.5 rebounds provides solid value.
Final Four CBB DFS Picks
Jared Butler ($7,000) — DraftKings implemented a soft pricing structure for the Final Four in advance of casuals dipping their toes in the DFS waters. Because of this, Butler is a supreme value. On the year he accounts for a 22.4% usage rate and shoots 40.4% from 3 alone. However, Butler has struggled shooting recently, causing his price to fall. Butler only managed to shoot 36.4% and 28.6% from the floor in Baylor’s last two game, making him a buy-low option. While he hasn’t hit a ceiling performance recently, his rates also are intact. Butler accounts for 20.5% of the shots, 11.5% of the rebounds and 24.4% of the assists in Baylor’s last three games.
Davion Mitchell ($6,400) — Also too cheap, Mitchell also looks like a buy-low CBB DFS pick after scoring just 12 points in Baylor’s most recent game. All of Baylor’s starters played somewhat limited minutes against Arkansas, as the Bears ran out to an early lead. Now projected to play in a competitive game environment, $6,400 is too cheap for Mitchell’s 17.9% usage rate. Mitchell also looks like a superior play to Teague ($6,500) despite the cheaper price. Mitchell has an 18.2% shot rate and a 39% assist rate, while Teague brings a 19.9% shot rate, 14.1% rebound rate and 9.8% assist rate. Even in a tough game environment, taking two of the Baylor studs still provides value on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Marcus Sasser ($6,000) — On the Houston side, the Cougars have the lowest implied team total on the board (64.75). Because of the low total, players like Quentin Grimes ($7,700) and DeJon Jarreau ($7,100) still have ceilings but likely realize them less often. Rather than pay a premium, taking someone like Sasser in a cheaper price range could make sense. Sasser has played 34 and 39 minutes in back-to-back games for Houston and has a 19.4% usage rate on the year. In Houston’s last three games, Sasser has displayed increased involvement with a 23.8% shot rate, 13.5% rebound rate and 14% assist rate.
Fabian White ($4,500) — With only two games on the slate, finding ways to get contrarian is important in tournaments. While White doesn’t start or play a full game, he still may be usable as a contrarian value option in GPPs. White stands 6-foot-8 and gives Houston some legitimate size on the court. White tore his ACL last spring and subsequently plays roughly 20 minutes per game for Houston. However, he has a 15.2% usage rate and could receive extra run in a competitive game. Houston lacks size overall as a team, and Justin Gorham ($5,700) occasionally deals with foul issues. In this circumstance White could be a direct beneficiary.
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UCLA vs. Gonzaga
From play-in game to Final Four, UCLA knocked off Michigan State, BYU, Abilene Christian, Alabama and Michigan along the way. Outside of its contest against Abilene Christian, UCLA actually had a worse shooting percentage than each of its other four opponents. Meanwhile, Gonzaga has now won 29 of its 30 games by double-digit points, including their tournament wins over Norfolk State, Oklahoma, Creighton and USC. Currently, Gonzaga has a 14-point advantage over UCLA in a game with a 145-point total.
Call it solid defense or call it variance, both Alabama and Michigan shot at historically poor rates against UCLA. Alabama typically shoots 35.2% from 3-point range and 70.8% from the free-throw line, but they only managed 25% from 3-point territory and 44% from the stripe against UCLA. Similarly, Michigan typically shoots 48.2% from the field but only managed 39.2% against UCLA. Making matters worse, UCLA just as easily could have lost these games. The contest against Alabama required overtime, and the Michigan game came down to the final shot.
On the other side, Gonzaga is an entirely different challenge for UCLA. Despite the recent wins, UCLA ranks 149th in overall defensive efficiency. Gonzaga plays well everywhere, with Drew Timme dominating the paint, Corey Kispert shooting 46.2% from 3-point range and Jalen Suggs doing a bit of everything. Gonzaga also plays much faster than UCLA. The Bulldogs average 76.2 possessions per game, while UCLA plays with 68.5. Gonzaga also has a distinct rebounding advantage. The Bulldogs average 38 rebounds per game (57th), while UCLA averages 35 (190th).
Mentioned above, UCLA has beaten solid opponents on its way to the Final Four. However, this team displayed their volatility just before the tournament, losing four straight games. Gonzaga has already played some of the best competition in the country and beaten every team except West Virginia by double digits.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”ncaab” date=”04/3/2021″ team=”Gonzaga”]
Best Bet: Gonzaga -14
Player Prop: Joel Ayayi Over 6.5 Rebounds on FanDuel
Ayayi projects for eight rebounds and already averages 7.1 per game for Gonzaga. Ayayi played limited minutes after taking a shot to the face in the team’s most recent game. Still finishing with six boards and now providing a 21.4% rebound rate in Gonzaga’s last three, Ayayi’s rebound prop makes sense here.
Final Four CBB DFS Picks
Corey Kispert ($6,800) — After shooting 6 of 19 from the field, Kispert saw his salary fall below the $7,000 mark on DraftKings. Kispert is one of the big three on Gonzaga playable in all circumstances also including Suggs ($7,500) and Timme ($8,100). However, the price gives extra value to Kispert here. On the year Kispert has a 18.6% usage rate. He has played 37 and 34 minutes in back-to-back games while providing a 21.1% shot rate and 17.5% rebound rate in Gonzaga’s last three. Also shooting 46% from 3-point territory on the year, Kispert brings an elite ceiling for tournaments as well. Isolating at least one or two Gonzaga studs is a strong approach to the Final Four slate.
Johnny Juzang ($6,300) — After scoring 28 points and shooting 11-for-19 from the field, Juzang actually saw his price fall on DraftKings. With UCLA playing a condensed rotation, Juzang has at least 38 minutes in two of the last three games. In the other contest he fouled out in 30 minutes. Juzang paces the team with an 18.6% usage rate. However, he plays a boom-bust style as the team’s primary shooter. Juzang has a 30.8% shot rate but only accounts for 8.7% of the rebounds and 2.8% of the team’s assists in their last three games. Expect Juzang to carry some ownership after last week’s 28-point performance.
Jules Bernard ($5,800) — A contrarian pivot off of Juzang, Bernard has played at least 39 minutes in three straight games for UCLA. Bernard was a rotational player to begin the year, but he has displayed increased involvement for UCLA in the tournament. In his last three games he accounted for a 19.2% shot rate, 20.1% rebound rate and 16.7% assist rate. He is involved across statistical categories and may even provide a more secure floor than Juzang. With Tyger Campbell ($4,900) also sitting in the value range, taking the cheaper players on UCLA could make sense here.
Andrew Nembhard ($5,000) — One of the top value plays on the entire slate, Nembhard continues to provide an affordable attachment to Gonzaga’s elite offense. While less involved, Nembhard has played at least 36 minutes in three straight games for the Bulldogs. Nembhard’s primary contribution is his 25% assist rate in Gonzaga’s last three games. However, Gonzaga averages 76.2 possessions per game, often leading to additional scoring opportunities for the ancillary pieces.
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