🎓 CBB DFS Breakdown: March Madness Sweet 16 Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel | 3/27

The tournament is through the first two rounds, and the Sweet 16 is just a day away. DraftKings and FanDuel continue to provide sizable contests for CBB DFS grinders. Examining the slate for the Sweet 16 on DraftKings and FanDuel, a number of core plays stand out. In this piece I will locate top plays from each college basketball matchup and determining the top CBB DFS picks for your DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.

For a more in-depth look at all the data, check out Matt Gajewski’s expert projections that will help take your CBB DFS lineups to the top of the DraftKings and FanDuel leaderboards.

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CBB DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel | March Madness

Stud Tier

Max Abmas ($8,700) — While the Sweet 16 Saturday slate looks light on value, Oral Roberts runs nearly its entire offense through Abmas and Kevin Obanor ($8,900). Both Abmas and Obanor have played every single minute in two straight games. While Obanor has intrigue, Abmas saves a bit in salary while still providing elite usage. On the year Abmas has a 21.9% usage rate to Obanor’s 17.1%. In Oral Roberts’ last three games, Obanor has a 26.5% shot rate and 37.4% rebound rate. However, Abmas also has elite rates with a 29.1% shot rate and a 43.6% assist rate. While Oral Roberts is an 11-point underdog here, it still ranks in the top half of implied team totals on this slate. Abmas and Obanor are the only players to consistently play every minute with these usage numbers. Even without much value, finding a way to get to one of these studs could make some sense.

Moses Moody ($7,800) — Arkansas is an 11-point favorites over Oral Roberts in a game with a 159-point over/under, and their 85-point total leads the slate. Unlike the Oral Roberts studs, Arkansas’ top players have discounted prices. Moody in particular has played at least 35 minutes in three straight games. While Justin Smith ($7,800) also looks attractive after playing at least 39 minutes in three straight games, Moody exploits Oral Roberts’ greatest defensive weakness. Moody shoots 37% from 3-point range, and  Oral Roberts ranks 229th in 3-point defense. Moody also brings an 18.2% shot rate and 14.6% rebound rate in Arkansas’ last three games. Likewise, Smith has a 21.4% shot rate, 23.6% rebound rate and 13.5% assist rate. Similar to the Oral Roberts situation, looking at one of the studs in Moody and Smith looks like a strong strategy here.

Jared Butler ($7,400) — While the Oral Roberts – Arkansas game clearly stands out above the rest, Baylor still has the second-highest implied team total on the slate. The Bears are 7.5-point favorites over Villanova in a game with a 141.5-point total. After a series of disappointing performances, Butler stands out as one of the top price-adjusted plays on the entire slate. On the year Butler leads the team with a 22.3% usage rate and 20% shot rate. Even after battling foul trouble in two of Baylor’s last three games, Butler still has solid rates. In that span Butler accounts for a 20.5% shot rate and 28.6% assist rate. He is also now priced below Davion Mitchell ($7,500, so he stands out as the clear target for Baylor.

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Mid-Priced Tier

Dejon Jarreau ($6,500) — Jarreau comes at a significant discount due to injury. He was hurt in Houston’s initial game against Cleveland State, but he battled through aggravation in the second round to overcome Rutgers. In that contest Jarreau played 32 minutes, scoring 17 points and providing solid peripheral involvement. Jarreau had a 17.8% usage rate during the season and primarily contributed as a peripheral player. However, his minutes are secure outside of an injury setback. Syracuse’s zone defense also permits plenty of 3-point attempts, where Jarreau shoots 37%. For those looking at cheaper options, Marcus Sasser ($5,800) could also make sense after shooting 1-for-9 in Houston’s last game.

Justin Moore ($6,100) — On the other side of the Baylor game, Villanova has a 67-point implied team total as a 7.5-point underdog. They still looks viable in DFS due to Collin Gillespie‘s injury. Most of the usage in Villanova’s rotation flows through Jeremiah Robinson-Earl ($8,500), Jermaine Samuels ($7,100) and Moore. Moore was injured in the last tournament, but he has now played 34 and 37 minutes in back-to-back games. Even prior to Gillespie’s injury, Moore remained heavily involved with a 17.2% usage rate. In Villanova’s last three Moore has a 19.6% shot rate and 20.9% assist rate.

Davonte Davis ($5,900) — Expect Davis to have immense ownership given his egregious mispricing. He has started and played at least 32 minutes in each of Arkansas’ last three games, and he provides an elite mid-priced attachment to the Razorbacks’ 85-point implied total. Improving matters further, Davis been more involved in Arkansas’ last three games. In that span Davis accounts for a 17.2% shot rate, 18.2% rebound rate and 24.3% assist rate. Even with Moody and Smith functioning as the focal point of the offense, Davis can be played alongside either due to the elevated team total.

Value Tier

Carlos Jurgens ($5,100) — With multiple studs on the slate, passing on the elite Oral Roberts’ players could make some sense in certain circumstances. Fortunately, Oral Roberts plays with a narrow distribution of minutes and usage. Jurgens is a primary beneficiary of the tight rotation, having played at least 35 minutes in three straight games. While he has a mere 9.7% usage rate, his statistics have improved in the Golden Eagles’ tournament run. In just their last three games Jurgens accounted for a 12.2% shot rate, 18.1% rebound rate and 23.1% assist rate. While Jurgens’ involvement primarily occurs in the periphery, this makes him a solid option even in lineups that may already have Abmas or Obanor.

Jaylin Williams ($4,900) — For those looking at pure punt plays from Arkansas, Williams returned from injury just in time for the NCAA tournament. While Arkansas limited Williams to five minutes in his debut, they bumped him to 28 against Texas Tech in the second round. Williams started the game and secured 10 rebounds while shooting 0-for-4 from the field. He provides Arkansas with much-needed size as the tournament continues. While Williams has only reached double-digit points once this season, he has never played 30 minutes in a single game. With an increasing role and an elite team total, even Williams deserves consideration as a cheap price-adjusted play.

Tramon Mark ($4,800) — For those looking at cheaper options on Houston, a few players contribute significantly off the bench. In particular, Mark and Fabian White ($4,700) look usable in certain GPP formats. Houston is a 6-point favorite over Syracuse in a game with a 140-point total. Coming off the bench as Houston’s sixth man, Mark has played 24 and 26 minutes in back-to-back games. He has also displayed increased involvement down the stretch. Looking at Houston’s last three, Mark has a 17.7% shot rate, 12.6% rebound rate and 19.2% assist rate. Without many value plays on the DFS slate, taking a look at someone like Mark may pay off in GPPs on both DraftKings and FanDuel.


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Author
Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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