College Basketball Breakdown + CBB DFS Picks | 11/25

The college basketball season is finally upon us. While most of us are immersed in the NFL season and Thanksgiving Day, the college basketball scene is quietly unfolding. For the opening of college hoops, this is an in-depth game breakdown for the slate, where I’ll be analyzing the game, salaries for players and locating the best CBB DFS picks for your DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.

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CBB DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Game Breakdowns

Liberty vs. Purdue (123.5 Total, PUR -11)

Liberty CBB DFS Picks (56.25 Total)

Liberty has the lowest implied team total on the board. They were also the slowest team in college basketball last season. Liberty lost three of their top five minute getters and return wind-sprinters Darius McGhee ($5,200) and Elijah Cuffee ($4,900), both of whom played over 80% of Liberty’s minutes last year. McGhee plays point guard for the Flames. Last year he had a poor usage rate of 15.3%, but he should take a step forward. Cuffee also played over 80% of the minutes, with a 14.7 usage rate at small forward. Outside of these two, no one else projects to play over 68% of the minutes. Forward Kyle Rode ($4,200) likely slots into the starting line after starting five games last year. His usage was poor last year. Chris Parker ($3,000) is a grad transfer from Henderson State, and Shiloh Robinson ($4,000) is another seldom-used forward. Parker is a guard who shot 42.7% from 3 last year, so there is some flier appeal from him at his price.

Purdue CBB DFS Picks (67.25 Total)

Purdue is also an incredibly slow team. Last year, they ranked 318th in possessions per game. They’ve had a strange offseason, losing Matt Haarms and Nojel Eastern to transfer. However, Trevion Williams ($9,200) is this team’s usage monster. Williams continues to rehab a hip pointer, which may reduce his minutes in the season opener, but his role this season seems secure. Outside of Williams, Purdue returns Eric Hunter ($7,400) and Sasha Stefanovic ($7,000) as their primary guards. However, Hunter will miss some time with a knee injury. Without Hunter, Purdue likely will turn to some combination of Jaden Ivey ($4,800) and Isaiah Thompson ($5,400). Ivey is an incoming freshman, but this situation is volatile. Brandon Newman, Mason Gillis, Ethan Morton and Zach Edey should all rotate into this lineup to varying degrees. Unfortunately, none of the major contributors are priced all the way down.

Morehead State vs. Kentucky (142 Total, UK -23)

Morehead State CBB DFS Picks (59.5 Total)

With a sub-60-point total, Morehead State ranked 174 with 71 possessions per game last year. They also lost their top two scorers from last year, meaning Tyzhaun Claude ($4,400) will be their top returner, and he averaged 9.5 points and 6.4 rebounds per game. The rebounds actually led the team. Their other top player is senior forward James Baker ($4,600). Baker is known more for his defense, but he averaged 9.1 points per game and 4.4 rebounds as well. Among the guards, Ta’lon Cooper looks like the top guard, with De’Von Cooper ($3,800) and K.J. Hunt ($3,200) playing decent roles within the offense. Hunt is a McNeese State transfer who sat out last year. He is a 6-foot-3 guard who averaged 6.9 points per game as a sophomore at his former school.

Kentucky CBB DFS Picks (82.5 Total)

Kentucky played with 70.6 possession per game (199th). In typical fashion, Kentucky lost eight of their top nine scorers and all five starters. Rotational player Keion Brooks decided to return, but he will miss Kentucky’s debut with a leg injury. However, Kentucky’s recruiting class features top-10 signees B.J. Boston ($7,200) and Terrence Clarke ($6,900). They also received stud Wake Forest transfer Olivier Sarr ($7,800), who likely now plays an elevated role without Brooks. Another freshman likely to play an elevated role without Brooks is Isaiah Jackson ($5,200). Devin Askew ($7,900) should provide most of the ball-handling duties, but his price doesn’t make sense with such clear value in Boston, Clarke, Sarr and even Jackson. All of the first four options are strong plays.

College of Charleston vs. North Carolina (143 Total, UNC -17)

College of Charleston CBB DFS Picks (63 Total)

While Charleston has a somewhat usable team total, they only averaged 67.8 possessions per game last year. That mark ranked 323rd in college basketball. They also lost their top three players and only have one 6-foot-9 player on the roster. This matches up horribly against Garrison Brooks in the paint. Still, they return 3-point shooter Brevin Galloway ($4,500) and earned a decent transfer from Minnesota in Payton Willis ($4,000). Those two should lead the scoring here.

North Carolina CBB DFS Picks (80 Total)

North Carolina enters the season with a rebuilt roster. The Tarheels play fast with 73 possessions per game last year (80th). They lost stud Cole Anthony, along with rotational players Jeremiah Francis and Brandon Huffman. However, they returned stud big man Garrison Brooks ($9,300). With a phenomenal matchup, Brooks deserves his elevated price in this spot. At the other forward position, returner Armando Bacot ($6,900) should slide into the starting lineup. Bacot is a former five-star recruit, but continued struggles could put him on the bench. Leaky Black ($6,300) likely will start at the three after an injury-riddled career. The two guard positions should be handled by five-star Caleb Love ($8,300) and four-star R.J. Davis ($6,400). North Carolina also recruited two other five-star forwards this offseason in Day’Ron Sharpe ($5,100) and Walker Kessler ($4,300). Unfortunately, they play a deep position for North Carolina, potentially depressing their minutes out of the gate. At first glance, Davis and Brooks look like the top values here, but Love could emerge as a Cole Anthony-type scorer in the right environment.

Eastern Michigan vs. Michigan State (137.5 Total, MSU -20)

Eastern Michigan CBB DFS Picks (58.75 Total)

Eastern Michigan ranked 262 in possessions per game (69.1). Eastern Michigan has a horrific team total, but they return 71% of their scoring from last year. Ty Groce ($4,500) started every game and led team in scoring. His matchup here is horrific. They also return Thomas Binelli ($3,500), who serves as a 3-point shooter despite his positional designation as a forward. Their other main contributors project to be Darion Spottsville ($3,200) and Yeikson Montero ($3,500). Neither of these players projects for much of a ceiling, but both provide cheap minutes in a game with a middling total.

Michigan State CBB DFS Picks (78.75 Total)

Michigan State ranked 164 in possessions per game (71.2). Michigan State lost two major contributors in Cassius Winston and Xavier Tillman this offseason. However, they also return a couple of interesting players combined with a strong recruiting class. Aaron Henry ($7,400) may be the top returner on this team after he flirted with the NBA Draft. Among returners, he leads the team in points, rebounds and assists. Most project Rocket Watts ($8,400) for a sizeable role as well after showing flashes behind Winston last year. Still, Joshua Langford ($7,500) possesses play-making ability at the guard position and A.J. Hoggard ($4,500) is an incoming four-star prospect. The other forward positions could come down to a battle between Marcus Bingham ($6,000) and Marquette transfer Joey Hauser ($6,600). Hauser is undoubtedly the superior option for DFS purposes, but his minute concerns render him an extremely volatile asset. Ultimately this is a deep Michigan State team despite their losses. Until minutes shake out, most of the player appear expensive.

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West Virginia vs. South Dakota State (151.5 Total, WVU -9)

West Virginia CBB DFS Picks (80.25 Total)

West Virginia ranked 178th in possessions per game (70.9). A late addition to this slate, West Virginia returns most of their production from 2019. However, head coach Bob Huggins notoriously runs one of the most frustrating rotations in all of college basketball. The Mountaineers’ production starts in the pain with Oscar Tshiebwe ($8,100) and Derek Culver ($7,700). Both forwards stand at least 6-foot-9 and averaged north of 10.4 points and 8.6 rebounds per game with a slight edge in Tshiebwe’s direction. Small forward Emmitt Matthews Jr. ($4,000) also looks underpriced in a likely starting role. However, West Virginia possesses more talent in the backcourt. Miles McBride ($6,800) projects to lead this group despite coming off the bench behind Jordan McCabe ($5,100). Behind the big four in this offense, McCabe, Taz Sherman ($3,800), Gabe Osabuohien ($4,300), Sean McNeil ($4,200), Jalen Bridges ($3,000 and Kedrian Johnson ($3,000) will all rotate in to varying degrees. The most intriguing name in this group is JUCO transfer Johnson, who could push McCabe in an underwhelming backcourt outside of McBride.

South Dakota State CBB DFS Picks (71.25 Total)

South Dakota State ranked 115th in possessions per game (72.1) and actually finished 35th in the nation in scoring last year. Positively, they return all five of their starters, including Summit League Player of the Year Douglas Wilson ($6,400). Wilson averaged an absurd 18.6 points and 6.4 rebounds per game last year. They also return Matt Dentlinger ($6,000) to complement Wilson in the post. Dentlinger also averaged 12.2 points and six rebounds per game. Among the guards, Noah Freidel ($4,800), Alex Arians ($4,500) and David Wingett should round out the starting five for this team. None possess ceilings higher than the forwards. Tray Buchanan ($3,500) should rotate in as the sixth man. Wilson remains the top value and is a bit underpriced.

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Texas-Rio Grande Valley vs. Texas (140.5 Total, UT -20)

Texas-Rio Grande Valley CBB DFS Picks (60.25 Total)

Rio Grande ranked 74th in possessions per game (73.1). Their top player, Javon Levi ($6,200), returns at a depressed price point. Levi averaged 11.5 points and 7.9 assists per game and earning Defensive Player of the Year honors in the WAC. At the forward position, Rio Grande also added Jeff Otchere ($3,800) as a transfer. He won Defensive Player of the Year at Stony Brook. Otchere is significantly underpriced, but Marek Nelson ($3,000) finds himself at the stone minimum. Widely regarded as a top-three player on the team, Nelson holds some intrigue as a pure punt option for the Vaqueros.

Texas CBB DFS Picks (80.25 Total)

Texas ranked 322 in possessions per game (67.9). One of the most experienced team’s in the country, Texas returns every scholarship athlete from their 2019 team while adding a top-10 prospect in five-star recruit Greg Brown. Matt Coleman ($9,100) returns as the team’s leading scorer but draws an absurd price considering the team’s spread production. The other starting guards include Courtney Ramey ($7,600) and Jase Febres ($5,800). Together the pair combined for more than 20 points per game last year. However, Febres has yet to be medically cleared, opening the door for increased playing time for Andrew Jones ($6,200). The forward position is likely manned by returning starter Jericho Sims ($8,900) and newcomer Greg Brown ($8,000). With Kai Jones, Donovan Williams, Gerald Liddell and Royce Hamm all factoring into the lineup to varying degrees, this Texas team is deep in real life but a mess for DFS outside of Coleman and Sims. However, even those two bring elevated price tags in a projected low-scoring affair on a slow Texas team.

Clemson vs. Mississippi State (135.5 Total, Clem -3.5)

Clemson CBB DFS Picks (69.5 Total)

Clemson ranked 286th in possessions per game (68.6). They should improve on their 16-15 record from 2019. They return most of their key player, including usage leader Aamir Simms ($9,000). Sims averaged north of 14 points per game last year but brings a hefty price tag. Clemson also returns guards John Newman ($6,300), Al-Amir Dawes ($4,900), and Clyde Trapp ($4,200). All should form a rotation with Chase Hunter ($3,600) also mixing in. This probably renders each of the guards unusable in a rotation on an already slow Tigers team. With Simms in the paint, Clemson recruited stud freshman P.J. Hall ($6,300), but he also projects to split time with Hunter Tyson ($3,800).

Mississippi State CBB DFS Picks (66 Total)

Mississippi State ranked 266th in possessions per game (69.1). They are in a slight rebuilding phase after returning only two players who played a majority of the team’s minutes last year. Those two players come in the form of Abdul Ado ($6,100) and D.J. Stewart ($5,900). Stewart projects fine with a decent role on the team, but he could be immediately pushed by four-star freshman Deivon Smith. Iverson Molinar ($4,600) should play the three, but the forward position remains a mess behind Ado. Grad transfer Jalen Johnson ($7,200) should play the four, but Tolu Smith ($3,500) and Quinten Post also likely play a role down low for this Mississippi State team. With a middling team total, all of these players present concerns. However, one could also emerge at lower ownership.

Georgia State vs. Georgia Tech (144.5 Total, GT -6)

Georgia State CBB DFS Picks (69.25 Total)

Georgia State ranked 21st in possessions per game (76). This looks like one of the top teams in the Sun Belt after returning all three of their top scorers. Between Kane Williams ($6,100), Justin Roberts ($5,100) and Corey Allen ($4,900), this team has a solid foundation of guards to play with. Williams projects as the top value of the bunch with the strongest peripheral stats, but all three of these players should play a majority of the minutes. The forward position looks like more of a time share between Jalen Thomas ($4,300), Joe Jones ($3,800) and Eliel Nsoseme ($3,000). Nsoseme is the most interesting of the bunch as a Cincinnati transfer who played in a rotational role over the last two seasons. He is 6-foot-9, 235 pounds and should work the glass. He has a chance for decent minutes if he stays out of foul trouble.

Georgia Tech CBB DFS picks (75.25 Total)

Georgia Tech ranked 88th in possessions per game (72.7). Playing with the better team total here, Georgia Tech returned four starters, including All-ACC players Jose Alvarado ($8,500) and Michael Devoe ($8,000). Moses Wright ($7,900) also returns for this team in the post. All three project well and have appropriate price tags. Behind the big three, Georgia Tech should rotate minutes between Bubba Parham ($4,500) and Jordan Usher ($5,900). Both look too expensive with multiple full-time starters available near the minimum price on this slate.

Villanova vs. Boston College (141.5 Total, VU -14)

Villanova CBB DFS Picks (77.75 Total)

Villanova ranked 247th in possessions per game (69.6). While Villanova lost their leading scorer Saddiq Bey to the NBA, they return almost every other player on their roster. At the guard position, Collin Gillespie ($8,700) returns for a presumed strong role in the offense. Last year he led the team in assists while averaging 15.1 points per game. Justin Moore ($6,100) should see an increased role as well after he averaged 11 points per game as a freshman last year. He should function as this team’s primary shooter. Similar to last year, Villanova also likely starts three forwards. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl ($8,600) and Jermaine Samuels ($7,000) both return to the starting lineup. The 6-foot-9 Robinson-Earl nearly left for the NBA but opted to return. The final starter looks like Cole Swider ($5,300). With so much production coming through the other starters, Swider doesn’t look like a primary target here. The sixth man is likely Caleb Daniels ($5,700). Daniels is a 6-foot-4 transfer from Tulane. Last year Villanova’s starters all averaged north of 30 minutes per game. With more depth, it will be interesting to see if they decide to rotate more bench players.

Boston College CBB DFS Picks (63.75 Total)

Boston College ranked 162nd in possessions per game (71.2). They lost four of their top six scorers from last year but return guard Jay Heath ($6,000) and forward Steffon Mitchell ($7,500). Heath led the team in scoring as a freshman, but his role is muddled with the return of Wynston Tabbs ($7,800). Tabbs averaged 15.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.1 steals before getting hurt. He subsequently missed all of last season. Mitchell should provide this team’s primary presence in the post, with Lehigh transfer James Karnik ($4,700) splitting time with C.J. Felder ($4,300) and Frederick Scott ($3,700). Heath remains the most intriguing option, but this team total leaves a lot to be desired.

UCLA vs. San Diego State (134 Total, UCLA -3.5)

UCLA CBB DFS Picks (68.75 Total)

UCLA ranked 306th in possessions per game (68.2). They are a slight favorite after returning all of their starting five and earning a solid transfer from Kentucky’s Johnny Juzang ($4,700). Guard Chris Smith ($7,300) likely will function as the go-to scorer, but Tyger Campbell ($6,800) and Jaime Jaquez Jr. ($5,500) both contribute enough to depress the projection of all three players. Now add shooter Juzang into the fold, and the rotation may be worse than expected. Jalen Hill ($5,800) and Cody Riley ($4,500) likely will rotate in the paint. Hill looks like the better option for DFS, with Riley mainly functioning as a rebounder. In a such a poor game environment with rotation concerns, it is interesting to see UCLA on the slate with elevated prices.

San Diego State CBB DFS Picks (65.25)

San Diego State ranked 329th in possessions per game (67.5) last year. After a phenomenal 30-2 season, San Diego State now replaces three key starters in Malachi Flynn, K.J. Feagin and Yanni Wetzell. Positively, the Aztecs return All-Conference forward Matt Mitchell ($7,300) and sharpshooter Jordan Schakel ($5,600). They also return forward Nathan Mensah ($6,000), who missed most of last season with a medical condition. As for the new starters, Terrell Gomez ($6,000) and Trey Pulliam ($5,500) project to round out the starting five, with Adam Seiko ($3,300) coming off the bench. Pulliam played a bit last year with poor rates, while Gomez enters the fold as a transfer. He stands 5-foot-8 but is known as a scorer. Overall, this is one of the slowest games on the slate with a depressed total.

Rhode Island vs. Arizona State (150.5 Total, ASU -8) – FanDuel Only

Rhode Island CBB DFS Picks (71.25 Team Total)

Last year Rhode Island played quickly, ranking 58th in possessions per game (73.7). Rhode Island lost a lot of production, including transfers Tyrese Martin and Jacob Toppin. The group will be led by Fatts Russell ($7,900) at the guard position. Russell remains the do-it-all player for this offense and should dominate usage. Behind him, Maryland transfers Makhi Mitchell ($4,300) and Makhel Mitchell ($3,000) provide reinforcements, along with Charlotte transfer Malik Martin ($5,600). Martin seems poised for a sizeable role, but the rotation remains dicey behind Russell. Jermaine Harris ($4,200) and Jeremy Sheppard ($3,400) should also play a role here.

Arizona State CBB DFS Picks (79.25 Team Total)

Arizona State also played quickly last year, ranking 31st in possessions per game (75.3). Arizona State returns immense production in the form of Remy Martin ($8,000) and Alonzo Verge Jr. ($6,300). Martin played a massive role for this team last year, averaging 19.1 points per game. Verge should step into a larger role after functioning as the sixth man for most of 2019. Arizona State then went out and had a massive 2020 recruiting effort. The program signed five-star wing Josh Christopher ($5,200), who projects to play immediately for this squad. Additionally, they drew Portland State transfer Holland Woods, who racked up 17.7 points per game last year. Rounding out the starting five is another top-30 incoming freshman in Marcus Bagley ($4,800). Standing 6-foot-8, 215 pounds, Bagley should slide right into the Sun Devils starting lineup. For a team with so much pre-season hype, FanDuel’s pricing makes almost this entire team valuable on the opening slate.

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Author
Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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