The college basketball slate for Saturday, April 2, kicks off the Final Four of the 2022 NCAA Tournament and provides some great CBB DFS picks. This article will go over the top CBB picks for DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy college basketball lineups as well as the best plays from each price range. Don’t forget to visit the CBB DFS projections and Awesemo College Basketball pages.
March Madness Final Four CBB DFS Picks
NCAAB Picks Villanova vs. Kansas
Villanova – 64.25 Implied Team Total
The lowest implied team total on the slate, Villanova enters the Final Four as a 4.5-point underdog to Kansas. Unfortunately, Villanova lost star player Justin Moore in the final minutes of their Elite Eight win over Houston. With Villanova mplied for just 64.25 points, only their tight distribution of minutes and affordable prices keep these players intriguing for DFS.
Known for shooting the 34th most 3’s in the country, losing Moore’s three point ability looms large. Moore took the second-most 3’s on the team this year and shot them at a 36% clip. Fortunately, Villanova still has Collin Gillespie ($6,500), who shoots them with over 40% accuracy. Already playing 36, 39 and 38 minutes in Villanova’s last three games, the veteran may never leave the court here. In that span, Gillespie contributed a 20.9% shot rate, 12.4% rebound rate and 28% assist rate or the Wildcats. With Moore vacating a 22% shot rate, 13.4% rebound rate and 18.5% assist rate, Gillespie’s rates could rise further. On top of Gillespie, Jermaine Samuels ($6,100) will be asked to handle more usage. Limited by injury for much of the year, Samuels has now played 33, 35 and 38 minutes over Villanova’s last three games. This coincides with a 19.6% shot rate and 25.8% rebound rate over the last three games. Both are solid plays for their prices based on the shortened bench. Samuels provides more double-double equity overall.
Behind the big two, Caleb Daniels ($5,700) will now be asked to start. Already incredibly active off the bench, Daniels has played 35, 35 and 34 minutes in Villanova’s last three game, contributing a 21.5% shot rate, 23.7% rebound rate and 24% assist rate. Eric Dixon ($4,900) and Brandon Slater ($4,000) will round out the starting five and likely play elevated minutes. Dixon has been more active on the year behind his 12.5% usage rate. This ranks well ahead of Slater’s 10% usage rate. Dixon also has a 12.3% shot rate, 24.7% rebound rate and 12% assist rate over the last three games, while Slater has a 6.1% shot rate, 6.2% rebound rate and 12% assist rate. With that said, Slater remains egregiously cheap and can help jam in multiple studs at the top of pricing. Either way, Dixon is the better price-adjusted play. With little additional depth, Chris Arcidiacono ($3,000) and Bryan Antoine ($3,000) may be forced into extra minutes. Unless something goes drastically wrong, neither should receive more than ten minutes maximum here.
Kansas – 68.75 Implied Team Total
The favorite in this game, Kansas’ 68.75-point implied team total still ranks third on this slate. The Jayhawks have now defeated Creighton, Providence, and Miami on their path to this point. For DFS, Kansas plays the widest rotation here, potentially giving their players the chance to come in under-owned.
All-American Ochai Agbaji ($7,500) leads the Jayhawks with an 18.7% usage rate. He doesn’t quite play as minutes as the other studs on this slate, but he has still reached 34, 36 and 34 over Kansas’ last three games. He also relies a little more on his shot volume than the other studs, notching an 18.9% shot rate, 14.1% rebound rate and 18% assist rate over the last three games. Right behind Agbaji in terms of pricing, Christian Braun ($7,000) also comes in a bit overpriced compared to some of the other studs. Braun has played 36, 36 and 38 minutes over Kansas’ last three games, contributing a 13.3% shot rate, 19.8% rebound rate and 25.6% assist rate for the Jayhawks. While the rates look solid overall, his lack of a ceiling also stands out.
In the frontcourt, Jalen Wilson ($6,700) has taken on a much larger role for Kansas down the stretch. He has played 31, 38 and 32 minutes over the last three games, contributing a 21.1% shot rate and 29.8% rebound rate for Kansas. Wilson also takes advantage of an awesome matchup in the frontcourt. Villanova ranks 164th in rebounding and 265th in effective height, giving Wilson edges down low. Overall, he is the best price-adjusted play on this team. Big David McCormack ($5,600) also exploits a weak Villanova front court. Far less consistent, McCormack has played 18, 23 and 25 minutes over Kansas’ last three games. Hyper-efficient when on the floor, McCormack brings a strong 18% rebounding rate this year.
As for value plays on Kansas, Remy Martin‘s ($6,200) return to the lineup squashes minutes for Dajuan Harris ($3,800). Martin battled injury for much of the year and has been slowly ramped back up. Over Kansas’ last three games, Martin has played 24, 27 and 29 minutes. However, when the games get competitive, Martin has a chance to push above 30 minutes, coming directly at the expense of Harris. On the year, Martin’s 17.5% usage rate trails only Agbaji. Even in his limited minutes, he has still contributed a 20% shot rate, 16.5% rebound rate and 23.1% assist rate in Kansas’ last three. For those looking at value in the frontcourt, Mitch Lightfoot ($3,600) has returned to play 17 and 16 minutes in Kansas’ last two games after nursing a knee injury in the first two rounds. Lightfoot benefits when either McCormack or Wilson get in foul trouble. Still playing around 15 minutes either way, Lightfoot is a dicey addition to stars and scrubs lineups.
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NCAAB Picks North Carolina vs. Duke
North Carolina – 73.25 Implied Team Total
North Carolina has been red hot this post-season, knocking off Marquette, Baylor, UCLA and Saint Peter’s. The Tar Heels enter a surprise rivalry game against Duke as a 4-point underdog in a game with an enormous 150.5-point total. This gives North Carolina a better team total than either team in the previous game. Already facing each other twice, this contest will serve as the rubber match between the two this year.
For DFS purposes, North Carolina plays one of the tightest rotations in the country at an up-tempo pace. Highlighting the Tar Heels, Armando Bacot ($8,900) averages a double-double per game this year. Absurdly, Bacot snagged 22 boards in 35 minutes in the Elite Eight against Saint Peter’s. However, Bacot should face more resistance here after grabbing 12 combined boards in North Carolina’s first two meetings with Duke. Still, Bacot scored 23 points in that second game, showing the ability to overcome a stiff Duke interior. Bacot has now played 35, 31 and 39 minutes in three straight games with a 19% shot rate, 42.4% rebound rate and 14.6% assist rate. This undeniable upside warrants consideration in tournaments.
Behind Bacot, Caleb Love ($6,400) is the top price-adjusted play here. Underpriced after a slow start to the tournament, Love has now played 39, 40 and 32 minutes in three straight games. Love leads the team with a 19.5% usage rate and provided a 25.5% shot rate and 25% assist rate over the last three games. Alongside Love, R.J. Davis ($6,600) has also played 39, 37 and 45 minutes over the last three games. Davis erupted against Baylor, with Love fouling out. However, Davis’ 16.6% usage rate falls below Love’s. Davis provided a 21.2% shot rate, 12.8% rebound rate and 25% assist rate over North Carolina’s last three games, so he brings plenty of upside as well. Slightly more expensive, Brady Manek ($7,300) rounds out the big four for North Carolina. Like the three above, Manek has played 39, 38 and 28 minutes in North Carolina’s last three. His 28-minute game came due to a premature ejection against Baylor. Manek offers more double-double equity than the guards behind his 20.1% shot rate and 16.8% rebound rate over the last three. However, any of these players can be used across formats, including multiple in the same lineup.
As for value, Leaky Black ($5,000) fits the bill. Black has played 33, 39 and 40 minutes over the last three games. However, Black plays primarily for his defense. Black is uninvolved on offense, and his 22.9% assist rate highlights his otherwise lackluster role. Outside of that, only Puff Johnson ($3,100) can be considered in the largest of GPPs. He has played 11, 10 and six minutes over the last three games but remains the most likely to see minutes if anyone fouls. Justin McKoy ($3,000) occupies a similar but even less involved role in the front court.
Duke – 77.25 Implied Team Total
Bringing the highest implied team total on the slate, Duke also plays a tight distribution of minutes. Battle tested against Michigan State, Texas Tech and Arkansas, the Blue Devils are 4-point favorites here in a game with a 150.5-point overall total.
Leading Duke, future top-three NBA Draft pick Paolo Banchero ($8,000) has played 38, 37 and 38 minutes over the last three games. He already leads the team with a 19.7% usage rate, and Banchero’s extra minutes have only maximized this usage. Over the last three games, Banchero has contributed a 20.1% shot rate, 14.4% rebound rate and 16.7% assist rate for Duke. Even at $8,000, he is one of the best price-adjusted plays on the entire slate. Mark Williams ($7,400) has also taken on a larger role. After averaging 23.8 minutes per game in the regular season, Williams has played 35, 30 and 30 over Duke’s last three games. This coincides with a 13% shot rate and 22.4% rebound rate for the Blue Devils. Both Banchero and Williams bring plenty of double-double upside here.
Finally falling below $7,000, Wendell Moore ($6,800) logged 36, 34 and 36 minutes over Duke’s last three games. With his usage front-loaded this season, Moore has only contributed a 12.5% shot rate and 16.7% assist rate over Duke’s last three games. Instead of playing Moore, paying down from Jeremy Roach ($5,300) or A.J. Griffin ($5,400) makes more sense. Taking over for Trevor Keels ($4,700) at the start of the NCAA Tournament, Roach has now played 35, 35 and 37 minutes over Duke’s last three games, contributing a 15.8% shot rate and 20.8% assist rate for the Blue Devils. The fifth starter, Griffin has played 26, 37 and 23 minutes over Duke’s last three games, while nursing an injury. He has a solid 14.5% usage rate and offers an elite GPP pivot off of Roach at a similar price. Keels has played the most volatile role of the entire group. Now coming off the bench, Keels has played 25, 14 and 25 minutes over Duke’s last three games. If Keels reaches 25 minutes again, he will be one of the best GPP plays on the slate. However, that role cannot be guaranteed. Theo John ($3,400) is the last player to mention, receiving 5, 10 and 10 minutes over Duke’s last three games. He likely needs both Williams and Banchero to get into foul trouble to receive more than ten or so minutes.
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