Thursday is done and now we look to solidify the elite 8 with 4 more big matchups tonight. I’m very bitter as a I write this as Tennessee I thought caught an awful break late in that game with the foul on Edwards’ 3 pointer with a few seconds left. Other than that, it was an impressive showing from Gonzaga, TT, and Virginia who all found ways to survive and advance. Texas Tech really is dangerous as they held Michigan to just 44 points and them vs Gonzaga is going to be a cant miss game on Saturday.
The article is going to breakdown each Sweet 16 matchup from both a betting and DFS perspective. With only 4 games on the schedule we won’t have any many options to choose from and puts a premium on making sure we don’t overlook any of the value situations on this slate.
(3) LSU vs (2) Michigan St – Michigan St -6, O/U 148
First game tips off at 7:09 EST from Washington DC between LSU and Michigan St. LSU survived Yale and then had a wild back and forth game against Maryland in the 2nd round. A late layup by Waters moved them into the Sweet 16 and despite their coach being suspended they are here looking to continue the run. Michigan St was sluggish against Bradley, then woke up and dismantled Minnesota in the 2nd Round. Cassius Winston is their do it all PG and he is going to be on the court nonstop and has one of the higher floors out there with his consistent scoring and assist abilities. Matt McQuaid also is on the court 30+ minutes a game and although he isn’t a high usage guy those minutes are very valuable for a guy priced sub 5k.
On the LSU side they certainly have the athletics and physicality to match up with Michigan St, but the question will be execution. Tremont Waters to me is their most important player, but he is just priced a little too much considering we have a game in UNC/Auburn filled with DFS plays at similar price points. Naz Reid is a tough cover on the inside and if he stays out of foul trouble he will be a major factor in this game. From a DFS standpoint I still have this game firmly behind the UNC/Auburn, and think Michigan St does enough to sneak by LSU in this one.
(5) Auburn vs (1) UNC – UNC -5.5, O/U 165
The 2nd early game tips around 7:30 from Kansas City and as the over under shows this one could be played at a crazy tempo. UNC loves to push the ball and Auburn is another team that doesn’t mind getting into an up and down game so we could see fireworks in this one. Coby White is a freshman, but he doesn’t play like one and is great in transition and knowing when to take the scoring upon himself or distribute. He comes in at 7.4k and should be a popular play in this game for good reason with the opportunities he’s going to have to make plays. On the other side Jared Harper and Bryce Brown are both primed for big games with UNC wanting to push the pace and allow transition plays to be made. They are both going to see plenty of minutes and will have a green light to fire from 3 early and often so its hard to imagine this type of game style not suiting them.
I’m not as high on the frontcourt players as the transition and tempo seem to favor the ball handlers and the guys who are going to be launching from 3. Luke Maye is always a solid contributor, but the salary is an issue if you are trying to get a bunch of other quality players in the lineups and I’m not sure how big his ceiling is with a tag north of 8k. On the Auburn side they have bodies to attack on the inside, but with potential foul trouble and multiple options it will be difficult to peg that production.
Overall I think this game is won and lost by the guards and if Coby White is his usual self I think North Carolina hangs on here and sets up a great game against the Houston / Kentucky winner. Teams that try and attempt to keep up with UNC pace often are left in the dust as the game gets to the 2nd half and I think Auburn would be smarter to pick their spots rather than forcing the tempo at all times. With the number of threes Auburn shoots, they are always going to have a shot, but nobody is better at playing in transition then UNC and that might be the difference in this one tonight.
(4) Virginia Tech vs (1) Duke – Duke -7, O/U 143
This is the nightcap from Washington DC gives us an ACC matchup we have seen before with Virginia Tech and Duke set to square off. Duke should be out – it’s as simple as that – yet somehow, they survived and now the task to take them down seems even tougher. Virginia Tech beat Duke in Blacksburg, but that was without Zion and this Duke team is an entirely different team when he is healthy. Im pretty neutral on this game from both a betting and DFS perspective. I think the spread is pretty fair and don’t see Duke losing and on the DFS side there aren’t a ton of prices that stick out. Cam Reddish at 6.2k is a decent option he should be out there for plenty of minutes and does enough without having to be the focal point of the offense to return a nice line for this price tag.
On the Virginia Tech side, they are going to have to make a ton of threes to stay in this one, but that is the style they like to play and have a ton of guys who can step back and hit them. This makes pegging production difficult and I don’t know if we see Justin Robinson get additional minutes or if he will still hang around 28-30 since he still is only a few weeks back from that foot injury. If someone like Hill or Outlaw step up maybe they can hang in, but I expect Duke to win relatively easy tonight and move onto the Elite 8.
(3) Houston vs (2) Kentucky – Kentucky -2.5, O/U 134
Last game of the night from Kansas City and its going to be a good one with Houston taking on Kentucky with the Elite 8 on the line. Houston is a quality team with only a few losses on the entire year and they aren’t going to be even remotely intimidated by Kentucky. The big question in this one is what is the status of PJ Washington? He is going to be needed against this Houston squad and although he isn’t in play himself in DFS he would make the frontcourt that much harder to attack if he is active and available. This game has the lowest over under on the 4 game slate by almost 10 points and it doesn’t seem like this is the spot to attack. I expect Houston to actually win this game if PJ Washington is unavailable as Corey Davis Jr. is going to be a problem for UK and should be in line for a 35+ minutes and a ton of usage regardless of game script.
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