Week 12 action continues with a Wednesday two-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. This college football DFS breakdown will look at both teams and provide information about each skill position player of note. Make sure to check out Awesemo’s projections, depth charts and datasheets for more information. With that said, let’s dive into this week’s iteration of the Week 12 CFB DFS picks for Wednesday’s matchup.
College Football DFS: Week 12 Wednesday CFB Picks
Northern Illinois vs Buffalo
Northern Illinois (31.5 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 74 (35th)
Pass Rate – 37.99% (121st)
Michigan State transfer Rocky Lombardi ($7,500) leads Northern Illinois’ passing attack. He benefits from an elevated play rate and a dual-threat skillset. Lombardi has 376 yards rushing already this year, which takes advantage of a Buffalo defense allowing over 200 yards rushing per game. As a passer, Lombardi averages 211.1 yards per game on 26.8 attempts. However, he has been over 260 in each of his last three games, including over 300 in two of those. With his involvement in every facet of the game, Lombardi is an excellent option at the quarterback position.
Harrison Waylee ($6,000) continues to miss time without an update to his status. Jevyon Ducker ($5,700) has been the lead back in his place, with at least 20 touches in three straight games. Behind him, Clint Ratkovich ($4,300), Antario Brown ($3,000) and Mason Blakemore ($3,000) will all receive a handful of touches. This makes Ducker’s workload slightly more volatile than some other backs, but he is still firmly in play against a Buffalo defense allowing over 200 yards to their opponents.
At receiver NIU lost Tyrice Richie, which thrust Trayvon Rudolph ($7,300) into an elevated role. Rudolph has 35 targets over NIU’s last two games. Behind him, Cole Tucker ($5,100) continues to acclimate after a multi-game absence to start the year. He also has 21 targets over NIU’s last two. The Huskies basically do not use anyone else. WR3 and tight end are both nasty rotations worth ignoring. Both receivers are stackable with Lombardi.
Buffalo (30 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 76.6 (15th)
Pass Rate – 43.40% (89th)
Veteran quarterback Kyle Vantrease ($5,000) continues to lead Buffalo’s increasing up-tempo offense. The Bulls still prefer to run the ball, but tempo helps Vantrease. Unlike previous seasons, Vantrease has shown some mobility with 115 cumulative yards rushing this year. As a passer he averages 187.6 yards per game on 26.2 attempts. Vantrease did not finish either of Buffalo’s last two games, but he was above 200 in his three prior. While he does not have a 300-yard game this year, the price is attractive. Still, Vantrease has been banged up of late and runs the risk of splitting time with Matt Myers ($4,800) to some degree. He is a risky GPP option on the two-game slate.
Kevin Marks ($4,000) returned from injury, but still played a change of pace role to Dylan McDuffie ($6,700). McDuffie averages 17 touches per game but has at least 20 touches in four straight. McDuffie is not the most active in the pass game, but NIU allows over 215 yards rushing per game. Marks will occupy a change-of-pace role with Ron Cook ($3,100).
According to the Awesemo CFB DFS lineup optimizer, McDuffie was showing through as one of the best options on the slate tonight when running optimals. For more free CFB DFS picks, check out our free DraftKings CFB cheat sheet and FanDuel CFB cheat sheet.
Bowling Green transfer Quian Williams ($5,900) leads Buffalo with 80.2 yards per game on 8.9 targets. Behind him, Dominic Johnson ($3,800) and Jamari Gassett ($3,400) are the WR2 and WR3. They average 5.2 and 2.6 targets, respectively. Tyler Stephens ($3,500) is the most active tight end, but Buffalo will rotate this position. Williams and Johnson are the two best options for Buffalo stackers.
Central Michigan vs. Ball State
Central Michigan (28.5 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 76.6 (15th)
Pass Rate – 52.54% (32nd)
Daniel Richardson ($7,200) has beaten out Jacob Sirmon for Central Michigan’s starting quarterback job. Richardson is not mobile, with negative-34 yards rushing this year. However, he benefits from an up-tempo and pass-heavy attack. Richardson only has one 300-yard passing game this year, but he has eclipsed 250 yards on four other occasions. This is even more impressive considering he did not start the first three games of the year. While Richardson requires a strong passing performance to overcome his negative rushing numbers, this game environment still gives him a strong ceiling.
Lew Nichols ($9,000) is the best running back play on the slate. He averages 129.4 rushing and 22.6 yards receiving on 27.5 touches per game. He had 43 carries last week. Even at an elevated price, he is a priority.
Kalil Pimpleton ($6,500) and JaCorey Sullivan ($4,900) are the top two receivers for Central Michigan, averaging 8.4 and 7.1 targets per game, respectively. Sullivan’s numbers are somewhat depressed after a midseason injury, but he averages 63.5 yards per game, compared to 77.9 for Pimpleton. Dallas Dixon ($5,300) is the WR3 and Joel Wilson ($4,200) is the tight end. They are both GPP viable, averaging 6.3 and four targets per game, respectively.
Ball State (31 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 68 (91st)
Pass Rate – 50.98% (41st)
Ball State has decreased their pace this year while remaining pass heavy. This has lowered the floor of Drew Plitt ($6,200), who largely functions as a game manager. Plitt only has 128 cumulative yards rushing this year, while averaging 190 yards passing per game on 29.6 attempts. Plitt only has one 300-yard game this year and six games below 200 yards. With a lower floor, Plitt is better served in GPPs. For reference, he did not fall below 200 yards in any game last year.
At running back, Ball State has increasingly relied on Carson Steele ($5,500) as their lead back. He out-carried Will Jones ($3,300) 21-3 in Ball State’s most recent game. With that said, Jones continues to handle all of the pass game work. While Steele has 20-plus carries in two straight, he is slightly riskier than the other backs on this slate due to his pass game role.
Justin Hall ($7,100) is the top receiver on this slate. He averages 59.9 yards on 7.8 targets, but he also plays a key role in the run game. Hall has at least four carries in each of his last four games, giving him an excellent floor. Behind him, Yo’Heinz Tyler ($4,100) and Jayshon Jackson ($4,400) are the complementary pieces. Tyler is the underneath receiver with 369 yards on 6.9 targets pregame. Jackson is the field stretcher with 519 yards on 6.4 targets per game. Both are viable.
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