CFB Bets:Â The second College Football Saturday is upon us and no surprise we have some big spreads with gigantic mismatches and then some marquee matchups with Top-25 teams set to play and impact the national stage. There is a full DFS slate to breakdown so make sure to check out the DFS Week 2 College Football article where we will talk about some individual players that you may want to roster on Sunday. This article is going to focus on a few games from a CFB betting perspective and where I am leaning in the betting market.
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Texas A&M at Clemson 3:30 EST : Clemson -17.5 O/U 63
The premier game of the second week is in Death Valley as the Aggies travel to Clemson looking to get some revenge for the 28-26 loss last year in College Station. This game will tell us a lot about both teams as neither had tests in Week 1.
Texas A&M
Jimbo Fishers team has a lot of talent and if it wasn’t for the brutal schedule they would probably have more hype surrounding this season. Going to Clemson is a massive test for any team, but QB Kellen Mond has experience and is a dual threat which is going to put pressure on this Clemson defense. A&M has seven returning starters on offense and thru the first game didn’t seem to have much of a drop off at RB where Trayveon Williams took a lot of production with him when he graduated.
Defensively A&M only returns four starters and it remains to be seen if they have replacements for all the starters that were lost from 2018. In the opening game blowout against Texas St, they looked sharp, but I don’t draw much of a conclusion based off an opponent like that. If they are going to have a chance in this one Mond is going to need to have a big game both thru the air and on the ground and they cannot afford to turn the ball over.
Clemson
The defending national champs looked sluggish against Georgia Tech and they still rolled 52-14 just showing how talented this team is. QB Trevor Lawrence didn’t get his season off how we would have liked to with a pair of INT’s , but RB Travis Etienne certainly did as he rushed for 205 yards on just 17 carries. Texas A&M is going to test this offense more than GT did, but it’s also hard to imagine Lawrence and co aren’t a little sharper in this second week which is a scary thought for opponents.
Clemson’s defense is more of a mystery. They lost a ton of talent to the NFL, particularly at the defensive line. Three of Clemson DL’s went in the top 17 picks in the NFL Draft. That’s just insane and there is no way to replace that kind of talent even if they do reload with top end recruits stepping in to help fill the void. This defense as a whole isn’t going to be as strong as last year, but with the firepower on this offense they don’t need to be and that still makes the recipe for beating Clemson incredibly difficult.
I don’t think A&M wins this game, but Mond will be able to move the ball on Clemson’s defense and at least push Clemson’s offense to keep up and be efficient. A&M only came up 2 points short last year and even though going on the road is a different animal that experience will serve them well and I think they can keep this one closer than the spread indicates.
My Pick: Texas A&M +17.5
BYU at Tennessee 7 PM EST: Tennessee -4, O/U 52.5
We have seen crazy upsets in sports and App State going into Michigan still stands on its own for a lot of reasons, but seeing Georgia State go into Tennessee and win was truly stunning. Georgia State just physically outplayed them and the score actually wasn’t as close as the final indicates. It’s not like Tennessee had huge expectations coming into the season, but that was something nobody saw coming and it immediately put pressure on the entire football program to respond.
BYU
Last time we saw BYU they were at home against Utah and despite the rivalry game and big crowd they couldn’t get much going losing 30-12. Utah is a team that might be a playoff contender so there is no shame in losing. However, the offense looked pretty vanilla and QB Zach Wilson needs to be better than 21/33 for 208 and 2 INTs this week.
Defensively, BYU returns eight starters, but the loss of the top two tacklers from 2018 showed itself in the Utah game. They need to be better against the run. Last week BYU gave up 262 yards off 48 Ute carries and although Tennessee and Utah are different teams that is something to be concerned about.
Tennessee
This is a situation where I almost feel like you can throw the numbers and figures out the window, but it’s still something to at least look at when breaking this game down. Tennessee returns 10 offensive starters including their QB so there is no reason they can’t be a quality offensive unit in 2019. Against Georgia State QB Jarrett Guarantano had success thru the air (311 yards 2 TDs), but Tennessee not being able to rush for 100 yards against an opponent like that is a major red flag and something this offensive line needs to fix immediately.
On defense it is gut check time as Georgia State pushed them around and rushed for 213 yards on 53 carries, which is embarrassing against an SEC opponent. They have talent, especially at linebacker where they have a lot of production returning so it’s just a matter of getting more from the Defensive line where clearly they struggled last week. Again, this is a situation where it’s more about pride as they were embarrassed and listened to a week of how awful they are, so how they come out and respond early will tell us all we need to know.
Big range of outcomes in this one as Tennessee’s fans could be booing them off the field after the first drive, or with a fast start the 100k plus may be rallying the troops and giving them the fuel to get everything back on track. Even though he is under major pressure, I think HC Jeremy Pruitt finds a way to keep this team together and they come out angry, focused, and motivated to prove that last week’s team wasn’t the Tennessee Volunteer team that we will see for the rest of this season.
My Pick: Tennessee -4
UCF at Florida Atlantic 10:15 PM EST : UCF -10.5, O/U 67.5
Not a game people are really paying attention to, as UCF doesn’t have the full swagger they did a few years ago despite being on a streak where they haven’t lost a regular season game since the end of 2016. That’s impressive no matter who you are playing and the fact that there has been turnover with HC Scott Frost moving to Nebraska and QB Mackenzie Milton suffering a bad knee injury during the run shows that clearly they have a quality system in place.
UCF
As I just mentioned this UCF team built on an undefeated 2017 season by finishing the 2018 season undefeated before losing to LSU in the Fiesta bowl. They suffered some losses to graduation as all teams do, and right now they are having former Notre Dame QB Brandon Winbush under center and tasked with keeping this run going. Around him are a lot of playmakers not just at the WR position, but at running back where two All-AAC players return giving him a lot to work with in this offense. They looked sharp in their first game winning 62-0 against Florida A&M in a borderline exhibition matchup so it’s hard to really draw anything from that.
During this run the defense has done enough to step up when needed, but it’s not the calling card of this program. They return five starters off last year’s team including the top two tacklers so they once again should do their part to give UCF a chance to win each and every week. The secondary is probably the strength of the defense, so if they can get some pressure up front from the newcomers they could improve upon last year’s numbers and be that much more dangerous.
Florida Atlantic
Lane Kiffin’s teams are always hard to breakdown as they sometimes look like a team that’s ready to crash the party and become a top non-power 5 school. Other times they just look lost and you wonder if this guy even knows what he’s doing. Against Ohio State last week we saw both of those things as they were down 28-0 in the 1st quarter after Ohio State scored on each of their first four possessions. After that point Florida Atlantic outscored OSU 21-17 and the final 3 quarters were very competitive despite them never ever remotely threatening to get in the game. It’s that kind of Jekyll and Hyde performance that makes this team dangerous and frustrating at the same time.
Personnel wise they have talent and they won’t have to opponents like Ohio State every week so the numbers will improve for QB Chris Robison. Last year these two played at UCF with the Knight coming out on top 56-36 so clearly both teams were able to move the ball. This year Florida Atlantic is home where they have faired much better during Lane Kiffin’s tenure going 11-3 at home while just 5-7 on the road in the last two seasons.
Florida Atlantic showed something after that horrible start against Ohio State and now get an opponent closer to their skill level at home which makes a big difference. UCF is a wildcard since they haven’t played a competitive game this year and Florida Atlantic will test them especially on defense where upfront they could be vulnerable. Getting 10.5 points at home with a coach who, despite some antics, proves he can move the ball on offense and puts up points against anyone is a spot I’m willing to take a shot on.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic +10.5
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Good Luck everyone!
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