Another Saturday CFB slate is here and we are fully into conference play. We have a handful of big time conference games across the country and as we saw last week with Georgia, you never know when a major upset can occur. We are starting to get far enough into the season where we can start to whittle down the playoff contenders list.
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There is a full DFS slate to breakdown so make sure to check out the DFS Week 8 College Football article where we will talk about some individual players that you may want to roster on Saturday. This article is going to focus on a few games from a betting perspective and where I am leaning in the betting market.
Army at Georgia State 7 PM EST : Army -4.5 O/U 56.5
Nobody is paying attention to this game, but we have two decent teams here as Army travels south to take on Georgia State.
Army
Army always plays hard, and defending their triple option attack is a challenge for any opponent. We saw them earlier in the year go into Michigan only to lose in overtime, so clearly they can hang with top-tier teams. Georgia State is certainly not that and Army will test this defense and force them to stop the run.
So far, that hasn’t been something Georgia State seems capable of doing as they currently are a 122nd out of 130 teams in the country in yards allowed per rush. I couldn’t think of a worse opponent than Army when you are struggling to stop a ground attack. So far this season, Army is rushing for 220 yards a game and I actually expect that to rise as the season goes on.
Georgia State
Georgia State’s season highlight was probably in Week 1 when they shocked everyone by going into Tennessee and emerging with a victory. They are a school that didn’t have football until somewhat recently and to beat a historic program like Tennessee is a crowning achievement. Since then, they’ve followed it up with a 3-2 record all against pretty low-end competition.
Georgia State’s strength is clearly on offense as they are a team that can put up points and move the ball through the air and on the ground. Their quarterback, Dan Ellington, has 13 touchdowns on the year and he joins a trio of running backs all who are impactful in the rushing attack. Army stopping the dual-threat abilities of Ellington has to be the top priority.
As dynamic as Georgia State’s offense is, they still have the Achilles heel of not being able to stop the run. When you struggle up front and a disciplined triple option attack comes in, it’s a dangerous situation and the game can get away quickly. I think we see the Black Knights rack up an insane number of rushing yards and really control the game on the ground in route to a comfortable victory.
My Pick: Army -4.5
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Oregon at Washington 3:30 PM EST : Oregon -2.5 O/U 49.5
If this is a gigantic trap then I’m about to fall right in it. Oregon travels to Washington to take on the Huskies in a critical game for both teams in the PAC-12. Specifically for Oregon, it’s a must-win if they want to have any hope of staying in the long shot playoff berth discussions.
Oregon
We last saw Oregon when they absolutely dismantled Colorado at home on a Friday in Week 7. The final score was 45-3 and clearly the number to focus on there is the three, as Oregon is always able to put up points. They now have a defense that is worthy of a top-tier team and that is a problem for anyone they face.
We know that Oregon runs through quarterback Justin Herbert,who will be a top pick in next year’s draft. He has an ungodly amount of skill position players around him and as I’ve mentioned dozens of times this year, Oregon has the best offensive line in the entire country. All of these things are why the Ducks have to be considered the favorites in the PAC-12 and why Washington will have its hands full on Saturday.
Washington
There wasn’t super high expectations for this Huskies team as they lost a ton of players from 2018, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Ironically, in the two games the Huskies have dropped, it has been the offense that has let them down as Cal and Stanford were both able to really shut down the production. Not to play the transitive property game, but Oregon already beat Cal and Stanford this year so it’s a reasonable question if the Huskies have the talent to compete.
Now clearly, it’s not that simple and at home Washington will be a tough out which is why we see this spread at less than a field goal. Former Georgia quarterback Jacob Eason is an effective starter and comes into the game with a 13-3 touchdown/interception ratio. He will be tested by this Oregon defense that has made significant progress from previous years. Washington will need to control time of possession and move the ball as getting into a shootout with Oregon isn’t the ideal situation.
I tried to write the preview objectively, but I’m sure my lean to Oregon seeped through just a bit. This Ducks team is starting to hit their stride and games like these are ones they should win going away if they are worthy of playoff consideration. There is no excuse as Oregon has everything you could want on both sides of the ball and this Washington team already has shown they are beatable by teams with a lot less talent then the Ducks.
My Pick: Oregon -2.5
Tennessee at Alabama 9 PM EST : Alabama -35, O/U 61
As the you can see from the spread, this isn’t exactly the marquee matchup in the SEC this week. But what do you expect when traveling to Tuscaloosa to take on Alabama?
Tennessee
Tennessee has been a massive disappointment and it remains to be seen how long Vols fans with put up with this current regime. They sit at 2-4 and one of those wins came against Chattanooga, so it’s dire times in Rocky Top. On the positive side, they did just win at home last week vs Mississippi State, which is a decent win, especially for a team that is struggling.
They made a switch at quarterback and true freshman Brian Maurer definitely helped to unlock some of the weapons this offense has on its side. He is currently a game-time decision, so we will have to wait and see if he is able to go in this one. Regardless, it’s a tall task anytime you are up against a team like this, even though it’s not a premier Alabama defense that we’ve seen in years past.
Alabama
As I just mentioned, Alabama doesn’t have the lock down defense that we have seen from them during this insane stretch. However, don’t cry for them just yet as they have the most explosive passing attack in the country and Tua Tagovailoa is working with an embarrassment of riches at the wide receiver position. So far this season, Tagovailoa has just the standard 27 touchdowns and one interception stat line and is clearly on the short list for the Heisman trophy. Tennessee probably cannot slow him or this passing attack down much and their only hope is to try and limit the damage as best they can.
As good as Alabama is (and they are very good), the defense can be scored upon, which makes the task of covering a five-touchdown spread difficult. In SEC play so far, they’ve given up 23 points to South Carolina, 31 to Ole Miss and 28 last week to Texas A&M. All of those teams are better than Tennessee, but they also aren’t top-end SEC teams, which proves Alabama’s defense can be exploited by average-at-best teams. Add in that Nick Saban is always quick to put the game on ice and you have a situation where Tennessee can hang on for this cover.
My Pick: Tennessee +35
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Good Luck everyone!