Another Saturday CFB Betting slate is here and we are fully into conference play. More big matchups are on the schedule and each week we get that much closer to a clearer playoff picture. With some undefeated teams in difficult matchups, we will have to wait and see if anyone drops out of contention with their first loss of the season.
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There is a full DFS slate to breakdown so make sure to check out the DFS Week 9 College Football article where we will talk about some individual players that you may want to roster on Saturday. This article is going to focus on a few games from a betting perspective and where I am leaning in the betting market.
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Wisconsin at Ohio State St 12 PM EST : Ohio St -14 O/U 50
This game is one of the biggest on the slate, but it took a severe hit with the massive upset that took place last week. Wisconsin was around a 30-point favorite over a terrible Illinois team, but in a classic look-ahead situation, they were tripped up for their first loss of the season.
Wisconsin
It hasn’t been against the strongest competition, but at times this Wisconsin defense has looked as dominant as any in the country. They had an inexcusable loss last week and that certainly has impacted how this game is treated, even though it still carries massive importance for both teams.
We know that the hallmark of Wisconsin football is an offensive line that allows them to run the ball early and often. Jonathan Taylor is one of the best running backs in the country and for them to have any shot he needs to be able to carry the load offensively. If they fall behind, it is going to be a problem as the passing attack isn’t equipped to deal with a pass rush like Ohio State has.
Ohio State
Ohio State certainly has looked like the best team in the country, and now they have a chance to prove that against a quality opponent. The only knock anyone could give Ohio State through their first seven games was the level of competition, but when your closest game is 20-plus points, clearly you have done as much as you could to impress the committee.
As good as Ohio State’s defense is, we also have to mention Justin Fields, who is a Heisman contender, top DFS play anytime he is one the slate and one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the country. He has a ridiculous 30 total touchdowns with just three total turnovers and is in complete control of the offense. Ohio State is a balanced attacked with J.K. Dobbins in the backfield and a handful of weapons Fields can look to on the outside.
This is an interesting game, mostly due to Wisconsin inexplicably losing to Illinois last week. On one hand, I like that because it shows Wisconsin clearly isn’t that good. But on the other hand, the spread certainly was impacted after seeing the performance. This was a spot I was waiting for as I think Ohio State makes a statement at home and answers the questions about not having played anyone so far this season.
My Pick: Ohio State -14
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Appalachian State at South Alabama 12 PM EST : Appalachian St -27 O/U 52.5 CFB Betting
Not exactly the game of the year, but I do think there is a position to take on what should be a lopsided game out of the Sun Belt conference.
Appalachian State
Appalachian State is 6-0 on the season and certainly has a chance to finish the regular season unbeaten. They have a fantastic quarterback-running back combo in Zac Thomas and Darrynton Evans and Appalachian State comes into this game top-10 in scoring in the country at 43 points per game.
The Mountaineers haven’t played fantastic competition, but wins over North Carolina and Louisiana Lafayette are enough to show this team isn’t just all smoke and mirrors. With their offensive firepower, they would cause problems against most teams in the country and certainly everyone they see on their schedule.
South Alabama
The South Alabama Jaguars are having a rough season as they sit at 1-6 on the season, including 0-3 in conference play. Their lone win of the season was against Jackson State, who is not an FBS team and certainly not in the same stratosphere as a team like Appalachian State.
In theory, South Alabama wants to run the ball as their passing attack has accounted for just six touchdowns and nine interceptions so far this season. When they fall behind, it is difficult for them to play catch-up and in a game like this they are going to have trouble keeping it close. They are at home, which is a positive and are getting almost four touchdowns so they have a lot of wiggle room in terms of the spread.
South Alabama is 117th in the country in passing yards allowed per attempt and they already have two 30-plus-point losses through the first seven games. Appalachian State should be able to do whatever they want on offense and I expect 50-plus points scored in this one. The key for the spread will be if South Alabama can generate at least 20 points because without that, it is hard for me to see them covering. With the way Appalachian State has been rolling, I think the Jaguars struggle on both sides of the ball and I’m willing to lay the 27 points on the road in this spot.
My Pick: Appalachian State -27
UConn at Massachusetts 3:30 PM EST : UConn -10, O/U 62
I just broke down Appalachian State and South Alabama and somehow I’ve managed to sink to a game with even less relevance than that one as 1-6 UConn travels to Amherst to take on 1-6 UMass.
UConn
The Huskies opened up the 2019 campaign with a rare win, but it was a 24-21 battle against Wagner, who is not an FBS school. That set the slate for six straight losses as the competition increased and UConn once again just doesn’t have the talent to compete. They’ve managed to keep it close against both Illinois (eight-point loss) and last week against Houston (seven-point loss), but other than that it has been beatdowns for this Huskies team. CFB Betting
UConn has no offensive firepower and their three quarterbacks have combined for seven touchdowns and eight interceptions in 2019. It shouldn’t be a surprise that they are averaging just 15.5 points per game, which is good for 123rd out of the 130 teams in the country. On the defensive side, they aren’t much better as they rank 127th in yards allowed per play, so we have one of the worst defenses in the country to go along with this inept offensive attack.
UMass
I went to UMass so before I bury them, I just want to give a shout out to the alma mater. The Minutemen sit at 1-6 on the year with their lone win coming against an Akron team who is 0-7 and probably the worst team in the country. Despite beating Akron and grabbing an FBS win, they managed to get blown out by 25 points against Southern Illinois, who is an FCS team. Similar to UConn, they have been unable to compete against even remotely capable competition and it is tough times up in Amherst. CFB Betting
I mentioned that UConn was only ahead of a few schools on defense and when we take a look we see UMass holds the title of the actual worst defense in the country. They are 130th out of 130 teams in yards allowed per play at an unfathomable 7.6 yards. Similar to UConn, they have no quarterback play with three quarterbacks combining for eight touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Since they are always trailing, that is not a recipe for success. They do run the ball and if they could somehow manage to grab a lead, that could be the game script that is most favorable to them.
CFB Betting
After breaking down these two teams I’m sure you are wondering why I would want to back either of these teams. The spread here is somewhat sizable as UConn is a 10-point favorite on the road. So obviously, they are expected to grab another win and improve on last year’s lone win. Here are a few of the trends that UConn will have to break if they are to cover this spread:
Last win against FBS team: Oct. 21, 2017
Last double digit win: Oct. 8, 2016Â (11-point win)
While those trends are somewhat anecdotal, it still speaks to the step this UConn team will have to take to cover a double-digit spread. From what I have seen of both these teams, neither should be a double-digit favorite over anyone. I expect this to be a competitive game up in Amherst. If either team can limit the turnovers, they could be primed to grab another win and provide a fleeting positive moment in a brutal 2019 campaign. CFB Betting
My Pick: UMass +10
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Good Luck everyone!
