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College Football DFS: Week 10 DraftKings & FanDuel CFB Picks | Friday, 11/5/2021

Matt Gajewski



CFB DFS Picks College Football DraftKings FanDuel today tonight WEek 10 Friday free expert rankings ownership optimal lineup optimizer strategy

Week 10 action continues with a Friday two-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. This college football DFS breakdown will look at both teams and provide information about each skill position player of note. Make sure to check out our projections, depth charts and datasheets for more information. With that said, let’s dive into the first iteration of the Week 10 CFB DFS picks for Friday’s matchup.

College Football DFS: Week 10 Friday CFB Picks

Virginia Tech vs. Boston College

Virginia Tech (25.25 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 70.1 (68th)

Pass Rate – 41.96% (99th)

Virginia Tech enters this game with a 4-4 record, with losses to West Virginia, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh and Syracuse. Their wins have occurred against North Carolina, Middle Tennessee State, Richmond and Georgia Tech. On offense, Virginia Tech is playing slightly faster, but they are still a run first team overall.

Virginia Tech will continue to trot out Oregon transfer Braxton Burmeister ($6,400) at quarterback. Burmeister is a solid dual threat, with 268 yards rushing on the year. However, he averages on 186.9 yards passing per game on 26 attempts. While the volume is low, Burmeister’s 54.3% completion percentage and 7.2 yards per attempt do not suggest he should be anything more than a game manager. He has only eclipsed 200 yards three times this year and has never passed for a 300-yard game. This is also a tough matchup for Burmeister against a Boston College defense that allows only 187 yards passing per game to opposing quarterbacks. Because the slate is only two games, Burmeister remains in play based on his mobility.

The Virginia Tech backfield has shifted drastically in recent weeks. Malachi Thomas ($6,600) leads the team with 47 carries over Virginia Tech’s last two games. Raheem Blackshear ($4,900) is still involved with 24 carries himself and functions as the primary pass catching back with ten targets in that span. Keshawn King ($3,000) and Jalen Holston ($3,200) have both been out recently, making this a fluid situation moving forward. Boston College allows 182.6 yards rushing per game, making Thomas and Blackshear viable pieces in this offense.

At receiver Tre Turner ($7,000) continues to lead the team with 75.3 yards per game on 8.1 targets. This has even increased in recent weeks after tight end James Mitchell ($3,000) went down earlier this year. Turner averages 9.3 targets per game over his last four contests. Behind him, Tayvion Robinson ($4,800) is also very involved, averaging 6.8 targets per game over Virginia Tech’s last four. He is used more as an underneath receiver with just 323 yards on the year, but he is heavily involved. Kaleb Smith ($3,400) acts as the WR3, averaging 3.3 targets per game and Nick Gallo ($3,200) averages 1.5 targets per game in that same span as the team’s primary receiving tight end.

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Boston College (21.75 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 69.3 (78th)

Pass Rate – 45.15% (77th)

After starting the year 4-0, Boston College has now lost four straight games against Clemson, North Carolina State, Louisville and Syracuse. Their only wins came against Colgate, UMass, Temple and Missouri. Overall Boston College plays right around the league average in terms of pace and pass rate. Last year, Boston College was slightly pass heavier, but they already lost their starting quarterback this year.

Boston College lost their starter Phil Jurkovec to injury early in the year. Since then, Dennis Grosel ($5,400) has struggled. Last week, Grosel remained the starter, but he split snaps with Emmett Morehead ($5,100). Grosel is somewhat mobile, with 61 yards on the ground this year, while Morehead checks in at negative-8. Positively for Grosel, Morehead played terribly in his first game action, completing 40% of his passes for 5.8 yards per attempt. Grosel has not been much better, completing 57.4% of his passes for 6.3 yards per attempt. With both playing poorly, Boston College looks likely to continue rotating snaps, making both pure GPP dart throws against a serviceable Virginia Tech defense.

At the running back position Boston College still uses three backs, highlighted by Pat Garwo ($5,300). Garwo averages 86.7 yards per game on 14.9 touches. However, Garwo has almost no pass game involvement with just two targets on the year. He will also split snaps to some degree with Alec Sinkfield ($3,200) and Travis Levy ($4,000). Levy is the teams preferred third down back with 17 targets on the year. He also averages 38.4 yards on 8.5 touches. Sinkfield averages 7.3 touches himself, but he has taken a backseat in recent weeks. Virginia Tech allows over 180 yards rushing per game, making Garwo a solid play, with Sinkfield and Levy coming in as tournament dart throws.

Boston College’s elite receiving tight end Trae Barry ($4,000) is questionable after Jeff Hafley called him day-to-day. Barry ranks second on the team in targets overall and averages 41.1 yards per game. He has also seen 5.7 targets per game over Boston College’s last four games. Outside of Barry, Zay Flowers ($5,900) is the true WR1 averaging 9.8 targets per game in Boston College’s last four games. On the year, he averages 63.9 yards per game on 7.6 targets. After beginning the year injured, Jaelen Gill ($3,800) has seen his role increase in recent weeks. He has participated in 89% and 79% of the snaps in back to back weeks. Gill also saw seven targets in back to back games for Boston College. This has coincided with a role reduction for C.J. Lewis ($3,200), who participated in just 40% of the routes last week. Jaden Williams ($3,400) has remained consistent averaging 61% of the routes over the last two weeks. If Barry misses this game, Spencer Witter ($3,000) stands to benefit the most. He saw four targets in Boston College’s last game.

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Utah vs. Stanford

Utah (29.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 68.9 (82nd)

Pass Rate – 49.59% (48th)

Utah enters this game with a 5-3 record with their losses coming to BYU, San Diego State and Oregon State. They also have wins over Washington State, USC, Arizona State and UCLA. Overall, Utah is balanced in terms of play volume and pass rate. They are very sensitive to game script but have seen a sharp increase in efficiency with the quarterback change.

Since taking over for Charlie Brewer, Cameron Rising ($8,000) has contributed to a spike in efficiency for Utah. Rising has excellent mobility, with 300 cumulative yards on the ground already this year. He also completes 64.1% of his passes for 7.3 yards per attempt. Rising has one 300-yard game this year and two more above 240. He also has 30-plus yards rushing in five of six games where he played a majority of the snaps. Stanford’s primary weakness on defense comes against opposing rushing attacks, but Rising is involved enough in both phases of the game to deserve strong consideration here.

At running back Tavion Thomas ($8,200) has emerged as Utah’s feature back. He is not active in the pass game whatsoever, but he has at least 19 carries in three straight games for Utah. Oklahoma transfer T.J. Pledger ($4,400) provides a change of pace with his 6.3 touches per game. Micah Bernard ($3,700) operates as a change of pace third-down back, but even Pledger has begun to see more work in the pass game of late. Either way, Stanford allows over 200 yards rushing per game, setting up Thomas a strong play here.

At receiver Utah’s main option is veteran Britain Covey ($4,400). Covey is more of an underneath slot receiver, averaging 29.6 yards per game on 6.1 targets. He has also seen a reduced snap rate of late. He has not eclipsed 60% of the routes since Week 3. Utah also has an elite tight end in Brant Kuithe ($6,500). Kuithe’s snaps fluctuate depending on the matchup, but he averages 38 yards per game on 5.5 targets. With Covey playing less, Devaughn Vele ($5,200) is a player who stepped into an expanded. After averaging 3.5 targets per game on the year, he now averages 5.5 targets per game over his last four. Utah uses two-tight end sets as their base personnel package. This put Dalton Kincaid ($4,600) on the field for a 68%-plus route rate over the last two games. Even Cole Fotheringham ($3,200) plays significant snaps with his 32%-plus route rate over Utah’s last five games. Kincaid leads the team with 312 yards receiving, which ranks narrowly ahead of Kuithe. Even Fotheringham averages 2.8 targets per game over Utah’s last four. When Utah does use three receivers, Solomon Enis ($3,400) will hit the field. He has a 48% route rate on the year and averages 3.3 targets per game. Behind the top three options in Covey, Kuithe and Vele, Kincaid and Fotheringham are viable punts.

Stanford (22.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 62.5 (128th)

Pass Rate – 56.20% (15th)

Stanford is 3-5 overall and 2-4 inside the Pac-12. They have wins against USC, Vanderbilt and Oregon. Despite a few solid wins, they also have losses to Kansas State, UCLA, Arizona State, Washington State and Washington. However, two of these losses came by single digits. On offense, Stanford passes at one of the highest rates in the college football, but they also play at one of the slowest paces. This has positively regressed a little of late after Stanford ran 71.5 plays per game last year. Either way, they are not getting off as many plays this year.

Beating out Jack West ($6,200) earlier this year, Tanner McKee ($6,700) starts at quarterback for Stanford. McKee is somewhat mobile, with 32 yards rushing on the year. He also averages 240 yards passing per game on 30.9 attempts behind Stanford’s pass heavy offense. McKee currently completes 64.8% of his passes for 7.8 yards per attempt, but he has shown a ceiling on multiple occasions during his career. McKee has three games over 270 yards passing this year and another three above 200. He provides a solid floor, but somewhat questionable ceiling without a 300-yard bonus here. McKee is listed as questionable ahead of this game, so his status must be monitored. If McKee cannot go, West would be a downgrade in his place. The team also hinted that Isaiah Sanders ($4,500) could receive snaps at quarterback, making this a tough situation to evaluate without McKee.

After using a two-back committee for most of the year, Austin Jones ($6,100) worked ahead of Nathaniel Peat ($3,500) last week. Jones out-touched Peat 19-4. This is interesting considering Jones’ lack of efficiency this year. He has 247 yards rushing on 68 carries, while Peat checks in with 341 yards on 62 carries. Stanford will occasionally use E.J. Smith ($3,900) as a pass catcher, but Jones looks like the tentative play here. Utah has been giving on the ground at times this year. They allow 163.4 yards rushing per game to opponents.

Stanford has battled numerous injuries to pass catchers this year. Brycen Tremayne ($6,300) should remain out, while a few others could make their return. Michael Wilson ($3,700) has yet to play this year, but he ranked third on the team in receiving in 2020. He may be limited if active. From there, Stanford’s top two starters in Elijah Higgins ($5,600) and John Humphreys ($4,100) are both questionable for this game. Higgins averages nine targets per game over Stanford’s last four contests, making his loss impactful. Stanford has played without Humphries over the last two games, but also plays a large role in the offense with 15 targets in his two games prior to the injury. One consistent option here is athletic tight end Benjamin Yurosek ($6,800). Yurosek averages 62.1 yards per game and has seen his targets spike to 6.3 per game with some of these injuries. If any combination of Wilson, Higgins, or Humphreys miss this game, Silas Starr ($3,000) stands to benefit. He has an 85%-plus route rate over their last two games, which has only led to five combined targets. If more than one miss, Bryce Farrell ($3,100) should also play plenty. He has six combined targets over their two games. They may also choose to employ multiple tight ends in this situation with Bradley Archer ($3,000), who is also expected to make his return from injury in this contest.

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Alex Baker, the No. 1 DFS player in the world, developed and maintains the FanDuel DFS college football ownership projections for today. Check out our industry-leading DraftKings college football DFS projections. Looking for more DFS CFB FanDuel picks and CFB DFS picks?

Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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