Week 11 action continues with a Friday two-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. This college football DFS breakdown will look at each team and provide information about each skill position player of note. Make sure to check out our projections, depth charts and datasheets for more information. With that said, let’s dive into the first iteration of the Week 11 CFB DFS picks for Friday’s matchup.
College Football DFS: Week 11 Friday CFB Picks
Cincinnati vs. South Florida
Cincinnati (41 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 63 (120th)
Pass Rate – 47.62% (65th)
Desmond Ridder ($8,500) has taken a stark step back into a game manager role after a breakout 2020 season. Cincinnati on run 63 plays per game, significantly depressing Ridder’s upside. The veteran only has 214 rushing yards this year after reaching at least 583 each of the last three years. He does not have any games above 50 rushing yards this year. As a passer, he averages just 235.2 yards per game on 27.6 attempts. This has contributed to a limited ceiling without a single game above 300 passing yards. However, he does have four games above 250 yards. This gives Ridder a solid floor, but lower ceiling. It is possible Cincinnati lets Ridder loose against a poor South Florida defense behind a 41-point implied team total. On a two game slate, he must be considered.
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In the run game, Jerome Ford ($8,300) enters this game questionable after suffering an undisclosed injury last week. Ford has been extremely efficient with 97.2 rushing and 18.8 receiving yards per game on 17.4 touches. South Florida allows 223.8 rushing yards per game. If Ford cannot go, Ryan Montgomery ($3,000) and Charles McClelland ($3,000) project to form a committee. Montgomery out-touched McClelland 7-5 and saw the only target between the two last week. Montgomery has been more efficient for what it is worth.
Cincinnati’s low-volume offense generally means the receivers are overpriced. However, on a two game slate Alec Pierce ($6,500) deserves more consideration as the team’s alpha. He averages 65.8 yards per game on 5.9 targets. Behind him, Cincinnati uses a timeshare led by Michael Young ($3,900). Youngs route rate is 66% and has dropped in three straight games. He only averages 2.8 targets per game over Cincinnati’s last four games. Tight ends Leonard Taylor ($3,000) and Josh Whyle ($5,000) have become increasingly involved with 3.3 and 3.8 targets per game in Cincinnati’s last four. Behind them, Tyler Scott ($3,700), Tre Tucker ($3,400) and Jadon Thompson ($3,000) will all mix onto the field. None average more than three targets per game and remain pure GPP plays.
South Florida (17.5 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 70 (68th)
Pass Rate – 43.04% (93rd)
Timmy McClain ($5,700) has finally returned from injury. The freshman is an excellent dual threat with 263 yards on the ground this year. Most of that came on limited snaps. As a passer, he only averages 161.1 yards per game on 22 attempts, but South Florida plays with decent pace. These averages should climb to close out the year. Last week, McClain had a breakout performance against a strong Houston defense, throwing for 289 yards and rushing for another 46. McClain draws a tough matchup here against Cincinnati, but his legs keep him live for tournaments.
Cincinnati’s run defense has begun to show cracks. The Bearcats currently allow 165 rushing yards per game. Unfortunately, South Florida uses three running backs. Jaren Mangham ($6,500) is the team’s leading rusher, averaging 56.4 yard per game on 13.3 touches. Kelley Joiner ($4,300) will operate as the team’s primary pass catching back. He only averages 6.9 touches per game but has shown upside in the right environments. He has six targets last week. Brian Battie ($3,800) also mixes in for 5.7 touches per game. Ultimately, this is not a great spot to target with three backs involved. Mangham is an expensive GPP play.
At receiver, South Florida narrowed their target distribution in recent weeks. Xavier Weaver ($5,400) is the team’s clear alpha. He averages 72 yards per game on 8.5 targets. He has 22 combined targets in South Florida’s last two games. Jimmy Horn ($4,100) and Omarion Dollison ($3,600) have seen their routes jump above 70% in recent weeks. Horn averages 4.5 targets per game over South Florida’s last four contests, compared to three for Dollison. Demarcus Gregory ($3,500) and tight end Mitchell Brinkman ($3,300) will mix onto the field, but their routes are less secure than Horn and Dollison. This entire team is best left for GPPs with their miniscule team total.
Wyoming vs. Boise State
Wyoming (16.75 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 68.1 (87th)
Pass Rate – 39.08% (116th)
Wyoming has a quarterback controversy on their hands. Last week, Levi Williams ($6,200) drew the start and played questionably, committing a pair of turnovers. Williams has solid mobility, with 181 yards already this year. He did rush for 116 yards in Wyoming’s most recent game against Colorado State, giving him upside. However, he leaves much to be desired as a passer with a 49% career completion percentage. Sean Chambers ($6,000) has not been much better throwing six touchdowns and seven interceptions. Chambers is also mobile, with 183 yards on the ground. Like Williams, Chambers only completes 50.6% of his passes. Either way, Wyoming is a low-volume passing attack behind their 39% pass rate. Whoever starts will be GPP viable, but there is a chance that both quarterbacks get snaps here.
At running back Titus Swen ($4,900) experienced a breakout game against Colorado State. He out-carries Xazavian Valladay ($7,000) and rushed for 166 yards on 21 attempts. Valladay carried 18 times himself, but there is a strong chance this remains a timeshare moving forward. Valladay averages 19 touches per game, equating to 84 rushing and 23.7 receiving yards per game. While the efficiency has been lacking, it appears Valladay will hold onto his passing game role. He averages four targets per game over Wyoming’s last four games. Boise State allows 174.4 rushing yards per game, giving Swen and Valladay viability in this spot.
Wyoming lost one of their staring receivers Ayden Eberhardt to a season-ending injury. Isaiah Neyor ($6,000) already led the team in targets, but he should see a more consistent role moving forward. Neyor averages 51.3 yards per game on 6.6 targets. Behind him, tight end Treyton Welch ($3,800) should see an increased role. He has been disappointing this year, averaging 13.9 yards per game three targets. The next man up at receiver is Joshua Cobbs ($3,200). Cobbs has not been very involved this year, but he averages three targets per game over Wyoming’s last three games. Ultimately, this is a low-volume passing attack with a sub-17-point implied team total here. Cobbs is a viable punt, but this passing attack does not bring much upside.
Boise State (30.75 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 74.6 (24th)
Pass Rate – 49.33% (52nd)
The other clear safe quarterback outside of Ridder, Hank Bachmeier ($6,800) operates a balanced, up-tempo Boise State offense. Bachmeier is not mobile whatsoever, with -15 cumulative rushing yards this year. However, he benefits from Boise State’s elevated play volume, throwing for 275.1 yards per game on 34.4 attempts. Bachmeier has shown upside on a few occasions with two games above 300 yards. He also has another six games above 240 yards, giving him a solid floor on this two game slate.
Finally getting healthier, George Holani ($4,500) appears to have finally regained the lead in Boise State’s backfield. Last week, he out-touched Cyrus Habibi-Likio ($4,800) 22-13. This is excellent news considering Habibi-Likio is among the least efficient backs in football. He averages 35 yards per game to 44.2 for Holani on more attempts. The backfield should continue to swing Holani’s way, assuming rational coaching. Andrew Van Buren ($3,300) has rightfully become an afterthought in the offense after displaying worse efficiency than Habibi-Likio. Holani is an excellent price-adjusted play here behind Boise State’s solid implied team total. Wyoming also allows 175.6 rushing yards per game this year.
In the receiving game, Khalil Shakir ($7,400) has been dominant in recent weeks. He averages 93.8 yards per game on 9.1 targets. Shakir has at least 11 targets in back to back games and gets involved in the run game. Behind him, Octavius Evans ($4,600) has usurped Stefan Cobbs ($6,200) as the WR2. Evans averages 6.8 targets per game over Boise State’s last four games, compared to 3.5 targets for Cobbs. Cobbs has been banged up at times this season, potentially explaining the reduced role. However, Davis Koetter ($3,700) has been playing ahead of him. Koetter participated in 53% of the routes to 27% for Cobbs. Even Tyneil Hopper ($3,400) participated in more routes at 33%. Shakir and Evans are the two safest plays here.
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