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College Football DFS: Week 7 DraftKings & FanDuel CFB Picks | Friday, 10/15/2021

Matt Gajewski

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Week 7 action continues with a Friday slate, and DraftKings and FanDuel have great contests for these games. This college football DFS breakdown will look at each team and provide information about each skill position player of note. Make sure to check out our projections, depth charts and datasheets for more information. With that said, let’s dive into the first iteration of the Week 7 CFB DFS picks for Friday’s matchup.

College Football DFS: Week 7 Friday CFB Picks

Marshall vs. North Texas

Marshall (38.75 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 73.8 (40th)

Pass Rate – 56.37% (18th)

Marshall enters this game with a 3-3 record on the season. They now have wins over Navy, North Carolina Central and Old Dominion, with losses to East Carolina, Appalachian State and Middle Tennessee. All three losses occurred by six points or less. An interesting change from last year, Marshall is 12% above their 2020 pass rate. Impressively, they are also much faster after running just 66.1 plays per game last year. This game already has the highest total on the slate at 66.5, putting both teams firmly in play for stacks.

At quarterback Grant Wells ($8,700) has been an excellent option this season. Wells does not have great mobility with just 30 yards rushing on the year. However, he has benefitted from Marshall’s increase in pace and pass rate. Wells currently averages 329.3 yards passing per game on 40.7 attempts. He also has excellent efficiency, completing 64.9% of his passes for 8.3 yards per attempt. Wells has reached at least 270 yards passing in every game this year, giving him an excellent floor/ceiling combination.

Rasheen Ali ($7,300) is the clear lead back for Marshall this year. He currently averages 21.5 touches per game with solid pass game involvement. Ali averages 93 yards per game on the ground and another 22.7 through the air. His 4.2 targets per game give him a rock-solid floor in all formats. Knowledge McDaniel ($3,700) was suspended, solidifying change of pace touches for Sheldon Evans ($4,100). He averages 8.5 touches per game himself.

At receiver Corey Gammage ($6,900) leads the team with 85.7 yards per game on 9.7 targets. Gammage’s 58 targets overall equate to a 23.1% target share. Behind him, Shadeed Ahmed ($6,100) and Willie Johnson ($4,500) have a similar level of opportunity. Both has 32 targets on the year, but Ahmed has out-gained Johnson 293 to 256. The routes slightly favor Johnson on the year, making him a worthwhile target. However, the best cheap option looks like athletic tight end Xavier Gaines ($3,900). Gaines is heavily involved and ranks fourth on the team with 31 targets. His 271 yards receiving also put him fourth. Gaines is so athletic that Marshall has used him as a ball carrier in the past. Jayden Harrison ($3,200) is worth mentioning as a dart with three targets in back-to-back games. However, Gaines is the best pure value play. Talik Keaton continues to nurse a broken hand and should miss this contest.

North Texas (27.75 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 86 (1st)

Pass Rate – 47.09% (73rd)

The Mean Green of North Texas have a 1-4 record on the season. After defeating Northwestern State in their debut, they have lost four straight to SMU, UAB, Louisiana Tech and Missouri. North Texas is currently the fastest offense in the country after playing with incredible pace last year. They also have a solid pass rate, keeping all constructions viable here.

Austin Aune ($6,800) started ahead of Jace Ruder ($6,300) in North Texas’ most recent game against Missouri. Aune played a solid game, completing 61.5% of his passes for 305 yards and 11.7 yards per attempt. Aune also has four touchdowns and two interceptions. He will need to clean up the interceptions to retain the starting role. Fortunately for DFS, Aune has excellent mobility. He rushed for 59 yards on 15 attempts against Missouri and now has 119 yards rushing on the year. Aune should draw the start again here, putting him firmly in play for GPPs. Just make sure to check the starting lineup before lock.

DeAndre Torrey ($6,700) continues to operate as North Texas’ lead back. Torrey has been incredibly efficient, averaging 114.2 yards rushing per game. More impressively, he is now handling 25 touches per game with solid pass game involvement. Unfortunately, Ikaika Ragsdale ($3,000) went down with an injury, pushing Isaiah Johnson ($4,500) into a change of pace role. Johnson averages 7.8 touches per game himself, but likely does not see much more than the nine touches he absorbed in North Texas’ most recent game. Torrey is still an excellent option here. Marshall currently allows 240.8 yards rushing per game.

Jyaire Shorter ($3,700) is expected to miss more time this season, putting Roderic Burns ($5,700) into the WR1 role. Burns averages 73 yards per game but has seen 10.3 targets per game in North Texas’ last three. Deonte Simpson ($4,100) will also miss this game after North Texas released him from their football program. Simpson’s route rate eclipsed 86% in each of North Texas’ last two games, opening more opportunity in the pass game. Tight end Jason Pirtle ($3,700) ranks second on the team in targets, but he only has a 58% route share on the year. Pirtle still averages just 4.2 targets per game. Bryson Jackson ($3,000) is likely the next man up at receiver. His route rate sits at 53%. He also did not play in last week’s game, making him someone to monitor. Jake Roberts ($3,000) and Damon Ward ($4,800) split time in his stead. They are also candidates for extra playing time, given the suddenly depleted wide receiver corps.

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Clemson vs. Syracuse

Clemson (29.25 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 63 (123rd)

Pass Rate – 50.00% (57th)

Uncharacteristically, Clemson is 3-2 to start the year. Aside from losing to Georgia in the opener, the Tigers also dropped a game to North Carolina State. Their victories include South Carolina State, Georgia Tech and Boston College. The latter two wins both occurred by six points. Clemson continues to operate a pass heavy offense, but their efficiency has dropped off a cliff. The Tigers have only managed 63 plays per game after averaging 78.2 last year. This number has increased in recent weeks, but this Clemson offense is still brutal compared to 2020.

D.J. Uiagalelei ($7,100) has been a major disappointment as Clemson’s quarterback this year. He only averages 158.6 yards passing per game on 28 attempts. His efficiency has also been horrific. Uiagalelei completes just 54.3% of his passes for 5.7 yards per attempt. Fortunately, Uiagalelei is mobile, with 160 yards rushing on the year. He has shown upside in the past, including 300-yard games in both of his starts last year. Clemson has a solid enough team total to consider Uiagalelei in tournaments.

Coming out of their bye week, Clemson is still expected to be without Will Shipley ($6,000) here. With Lyn-J Dixon also hitting the transfer portal, Clemson is thin at running back. In their most recent game, Kobe Pace ($5,600) emerged as the team’s lead back with 20 touches. Freshman Phil Mafah ($3,900) also touched the ball nine times as Clemson barely overcame Boston College. Fortunately, both back showed solid efficiency with Pace and Mafah each rushing for 6.6 and 8.3 yards per carry, respectively. Pace in particular is a solid value given his new role.

Clemson’s top two receivers are Justyn Ross ($6,200) and Joseph Ngata ($5,200). Ross leads the team with 36 targets, but he only averages 46.2 yards receiving per game. Ross only saw two targets in Clemson’s most recent game after suffering a concussion. Fortunately, he cleared protocol and will be ready for this contest. Ngata has 31 targets on year, but he has been far more efficient with 66.6 yards per game. Overall, Ross averages 7.2 targets per game to Ngata’s 6.2. Behind them, no other pass catcher has more than 11 targets. Both Frank Ladson ($3,500) and E.J. Williams ($3,300) have been banged up this year. Williams continues to deal with knee soreness and Ladson is a reportedly a game time decision. This means tight end Braden Galloway ($3,400) could receiver more looks. The same goes for Beaux Collins ($3,000), who filled in last game with Ladson and Williams banged up. This is a middling situation to target outside of GPPs.

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Syracuse (15.75 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 69.8 (70th)

Pass Rate – 35.82% (75th)

An improved team from a season ago, Syracuse is 3-3 with wins over Ohio, Albany and Liberty. Their losses game to Rutgers, Florida State and Wake Forest. The latter two occurred by only three points each. After passing the ball 53.9% of the time last year, Syracuse is throwing the ball at one of the lowest rates in the country. Also changing quarterbacks to dual threat Garrett Shrader, the Orange are running at an even higher rate than earlier this year. Fortunately, they are still just slightly below average in terms of pace.

Moving on from Tommy DeVito ($6,500), Mississippi State transfer Shrader ($7,500) has provided a spark to the offense. Shrader is known primarily for his mobility. He already has 412 yards rushing on the year, while only starting two games. Shrader will quarterback a low volume passing attack, causing him to average 14.8 yards passing per game. On this low volume, he completes 57% of his passes for 7.2 yards per attempt. While he has not eclipsed 190 yards as a passer in an individual game this year, Shrader has at least 137 yards rushing in back-to-back contests. This puts him in play for tournaments, despite a low team total.

At running back Syracuse has one of the more underrated feature backs in the country in Sean Tucker ($9,000). Tucker is averaging 133.8 yards rushing per game and another 33.2 through the air. Impressively, he has accounted for 24.7 touches per game in the Syracuse offense. With Abdul Adams out, Syracuse has given their backup running backs just two carries over the last two weeks. Tucker has an immense price tag and a tough matchup, but his volume is secure.

Taj Harris transferred out of the program, leaving Anthony Queeley ($4,700) and Courtney Jackson ($4,400) as Syracuse’s top two receivers. Queeley averages 25.2 yards per game to Jacksons 27.8. Both average exactly five targets per game over Syracuse’s last four contests. Behind them, Sharod Johnson ($3,000), Devaughn Cooper ($3,100) and Damien Alford ($3,000) all produced a route rate between 50% and 58% last week as Syracuse increasingly rotated receivers. Alford has been the most efficient with 124 yards on the year, but Cooper has seen the most targets over the last four games (3.3). This situation is largely one to avoid in DFS.

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California vs. Oregon

California (20.25 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 68.2 (86th)

Pass Rate – 54.21% (29th)

Justin Wilcox is firmly on the hot seat after a 1-4 start to the season. Cal’s only victory came over Sacramento State, with losses to Nevada, TCU, Washington and Washington State. Similar to last year, Cal continues to implement a pass first approach. However, their plays per game have dropped from 75.2 to 68.2 due to inefficient play.

Chase Garbers ($6,200) continues to operate Cal’s offense. Garbers has solid mobility with 191 yards rushing on the year. He also averages 249 yards passing per game on solid volume. With Cal’s elevated pass rate, Garbers throws 34.2 times per game. His 62.9% completion percentage and 7.3 yards per attempt leave a little to be desired, but his floor is solid enough to target at his price. Garbers has shown upside in the past with three games at or above 288 yards passing this year. He also has at least 43 yards rushing in three of five games this year.

On the year, Cal has utilized Damien Moore ($5,000) as their lead back with 14.2 touches per game. However, Cal showed a willingness to utilize four backs in their rotation in their last game. Moore only saw four touches while Christopher Brooks ($4,300) and Chris Street ($3,500) popped up for nine and ten touches, respectively. Moore did lose a fumble at the goal line the week prior against Washington, potentially causing his reduced role. Even pass-catching back Marcel Dancy ($3,000) recorded four touches. Brooks dominated the backfield with 30 snaps to Street’s 16 and Moore’s 12, while Dancy checked in with eight. This backfield likely to implement a timeshare moving forward.

At receiver Cal will also utilize a bit of a rotation. Nikko Remigio ($4,100) leads the team with 27 targets, but he continues to lose time due to poor efficiency. He only averages 20 yards per game. Trevon Clark ($5,100) and Kekoa Crawford ($4,600) have been playing much more of late, showing increased involvement. Clark leads the team in yards receiving, averaging 64.4 per game. Crawford has missed some time this year, but he is right behind Clark with 64 yards per game. Crawford has also been the most targeted receiver of late with target counts of ten and six in Cal’s two most recent games. Jake Tonges ($3,400) will operate as the primary tight end and Jeremiah Hunter ($3,800) will rotate into the game at receiver. Neither saw a target in Cal’s last game after Hunter had back-to-back seven target games and Tonges averaged 3.7 targets over his three prior games. None of these options are particularly strong, but Crawford looks like the top dog.

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Oregon (33.75 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 72 (51st)

Pass Rate – 40.28% (102nd)

After a 4-0 start with wins over Fresno State, Ohio State, Stony Brook and Arizona, Oregon shot themselves in the foot with an inexcusable loss to Stanford. This likely crushes their hopes of making the College Football Playoff. After last year’s abbreviated season, Oregon has picked up their pace but increased their run rate. This makes sense with a dual-threat quarterback and the positive game script they have enjoyed through most of the year. Oregon is still a two-score favorite hear, pointing to much of the same.

Boston College transfer, Anthony Brown ($8,300) operates as a game manager in Oregon’s offense. Brown has solid mobility with 198 yards rushing on the year. However, he lacks efficiency and volume as a passer. Brown currently averages 187 yards passing per game on 24.6 attempts. This coincides with his 56.5% completion percentage and 7.7 yards per attempt. Brown has yet to eclipse 236 yards passing in a game this year and has only passed 300 yards once in his five-year career.

Oregon lost a huge piece of their rushing attack when C.J. Verdell went down with a season-ending injury last week. Verdell averaged 17.4 touches per game and opens the door for Travis Dye ($6,500) to see an increased workload. Dye already averaged 14 touches per game himself, with 76.4 yards rushing and 16 yards receiving per game. Behind Dye, Oregon listed Trey Benson ($3,400), Byron Cardwell ($3,800) and Seven McGee ($3,000) in a three-way timeshare for the backup job. Cardwell’s 22 touches narrowly edge McGee’s 15 and Benson’s 11 this year.

At receiver Oregon’s leading receiver Johnny Johnson ($4,300) averages just 3.8 targets and 32.4 yards receiving per game. However, Oregon implements a nasty receiver rotation. Kris Hutson ($3,000) and Mycah Pittman ($3,900) lead the team with a 72% and 62% route participation. However, neither has shown any consistency. Jaylon Redd ($4,000) has seen his route shoot up to 62% and 78% over Oregon’s last two games. He leads Oregon with 4.3 targets per game over their last four games. Even Terrance Ferguson ($3,400) and Devon Williams ($3,300) have been involved for a significant number of snaps. Redd and Johnson are the two most consistent options, but that is not saying much for this team.

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San Diego State vs. San Jose State

San Diego State (25.25 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 67.2 (94th)

Pass Rate – 31.23% (126th)

Undefeated to start the year, San Diego State holds wins over New Mexico State, Arizona, Utah, Towson and New Mexico. While the level of competition has not been great, the Aztecs are eight-point favorites over San Jose State. Similar to last year, this team still plays very slow and run heavy. However, they have been even slower and run heavier, while playing mostly from ahead this season.

Jordan Brookshire ($6,400) returned from injury to quarterback San Diego State. Brookshire is fairly mobile, with 67 yards rushing this year. He only averages 129.7 yards passing per game on 19 attempts, but this makes sense given San Diego State’s preferred style of play. Brookshire has not shown much efficiency, completing just 48.3% of his passes for 7.4 yards per attempt. He has never thrown for more than 230 yards in any game in his career. Brookshire would need an anomaly game on the ground to hit value here.

After getting banged up three weeks ago, Greg Bell ($7,700) came out of the bye and resumed his normal role in San Diego State’s offense. Bell has essentially no volume in the pass game, but he still averages 19.4 touches per game and 104 yards on the ground alone. Kaegun Williams ($3,600), Chance Bell ($4,200) and Jaylon Armstead ($3,100) will operate as change of pace backs, but this job is Bell’s.

At receiver no pass catcher has more than 14 targets or 163 yards this year. Jesse Matthews ($3,200) leads the team with 14 target, but he only has 40 yards receiving to show for it. Tight end Daniel Bellinger ($3,800) leads the team with 163 yards receiving on 13 targets. Transfer Tyrell Shavers ($3,500) has seen his role increase in recent weeks, averaging 4.3 targets over San Diego State’s last three game. he has also eclipsed a 70% route rate in each of those games. No other players are involved enough to even consider in this game.

San Jose State (15.75 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 63.2 (121st)

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Pass Rate – 55.70% (21st)

After winning the Mountain West Conference last year, San Jose State has started 2021 3-3. They have now lost to USC, Western Michigan and Colorado State, while beating Southern Utah, Hawaii and New Mexico State. Similar to last year, San Jose State is playing very pass heavy, but at one of the slowest paces in the entire country.

With Nick Starkel ($6,000) injured, San Jose State moved Nick Nash ($5,800) into their starting quarterback role. Starkel’s status has not been updated in recent weeks, making this a situation to monitor. Nash is known primarily for his mobility with 78 yards rushing already this year. On a limited sample, he is completing 63.4% of his passes for 8.5 yards per attempt. However, he has yet to eclipse 193 yards passing in a game this year in San Jose State’s slower offense. His rushing upside keeps him viable, but this 17.5-point team total leaves much to be desired.

In the run game, San Jose State has increasingly relied on Tyler Nevens ($5,300) over Kairee Robinson ($4,000). After a near 50/50 timeshare to start the year, Nevens has out-carried 47-11 over San Jose State’s last three games. Robinson is still the preferred pass-catching back of the two, but even Shamar Garrett ($3,300) has become more involved as a receiver. Overall, Nevens still leads the team with 15.6 touches, 83.4 yards rushing and 7.2 yards receiving per game.

At receiver San Jose State’s top two options are Isaiah Hamilton ($5,900) and tight end Derrick Deese ($5,400). Hamilton leads the team with 32 targets, but only averages 51 yards per game. Deese averages 54 yards per game and has out targeted Hamilton in two-straight games. Deese now averages 5.5 targets per game in his last four contests. With Nash forced back into the quarterback spot, Charles Ross ($3,400) and Jermaine Braddock ($4,200) have become full time players . Both participated in at least 77% of the team’s routes last week. Ross is third on the team with 24 targets, while Braddock checks in fourth with 19. Both are pure GPP options with a slight preference towards Ross.

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Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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