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College Football DFS: Bowl Games Projections & CFB Picks | Saturday, 12/18/2021

Matt Gajewski

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College football action continues with bowl season and a Saturday five-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. This college football DFS breakdown will look at each team and provide information about each skill position player of note. Make sure to check out Awesemo’s projections, depth charts and datasheets for more information. With that said, let us dive into the CFB DFS picks, projections and predictions for Saturday’s bowl games.

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CFB DFS Picks: College Football Bowl Projections

Appalachian State vs Western Kentucky

Appalachian State (35.25 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 70.6 (61st)

Pass Rate – 42.74% (98th)

A showdown slate on DraftKings, this game has a 11 a.m. ET kick off. Runner up in the Sun Belt, Appalachian State plays around the league average pace, but prefers a run-based approach. The Mountaineers are quarterbacked by Clemson/Duke transfer Chase Brice ($15,600). Brice has played solid football overall this year with 117 cumulative rushing yards. He also averages 232.5 passing yards per game on 28.4 attempts per game. Brice has shown a limited ceiling in this offense with just two games above 300 yards passing. He has also struggled against some of the notable competition on App State’s schedule. Notably, Louisiana held him below 135 yards in each of their two meetings this year. Western Kentucky’s defense is not elite, but Brice still ranks behind some of the options on the Western Kentucky side.

At the running back position, Appalachian State typically utilizes a rotation. The two primary backs are Nate Noel ($9,600) and Camerun Peoples ($10,200). Daetrich Harrington ($1,500) only recently returned from injury, but he will also play a change of pace role. Overall, the timeshare between Noel and Peoples is split evenly. Noel averages 84.1 yards per game on 15.7 touches. Peoples averages 76.6 yards per game on 14.3 touches. Neither is particularly involved in the pass game. Noel and Peoples have eight and four targets, respectively. App State’s reluctance to throw to the running back position is certainly a concern here. Either way, Noel and Peoples are the top plays here and Noel looks more attractive from a price-adjusted perspective.

At receiver, App State lost their leading receivers in Corey Sutton ($3,600) to injury in the conference championship. This leaves Thomas Hennigan ($11,400) and Malik Williams ($7,500) as the top two options here. Hennigan has 776 receiving yards on 75 targets this year, while Williams has 775 receiving yards on 74 targets. With such a close split in production, Williams is a significantly better price adjusted play in this offense. The favorite to take over WR3 duties is Jalen Virgil ($2,700). Virgil has 141 yards on 25 targets this year. He participated in 57% of the team’s routes in the conference championship, but Christian Wells ($1,500) also participated in 45% of the team’s routes. Wells has 157 receiving yards on 14 targets this year. This role should be split, making both viable on Saturday’s showdown slate.

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Western Kentucky (32.25 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 77.3 (11th)

Pass Rate – 68.07% (2nd)

Unlike App State, Western Kentucky is one of the pass-heaviest and fastest offenses in the country. Their offensive coordinator Zach Kittley recently took a promotion to coordinate Texas Tech’s offense in 2022. However, he will retain his play-calling duties for Western Kentucky for this bowl. At quarterback, Houston Baptist transfer Bailey Zappe ($17,100) will lead the offense. Zappe is not mobile, with just 22 cumulative rushing yards this year. However, Zappe averages 424.5 passing yards per game on 49.5 attempts. Zappe only failed hit 300 yards in one of his contests this year. The veteran signal caller also threw for at least three touchdowns in every game this year. Overall, Zappe is the safest captain option on this slate.

With such a high pass rate, Western Kentucky seldom utilizes the running back position. Noah Wittington ($9,300) leads the backfield with 48.1 yards per game on 9.9 touches. However, Kyle Robichaux ($3,000) and Adam Cofield ($8,700) will also play sizeable roles. Robichaux and Cofield average 4.9 and 7.9 touches per game, respectively. Cofield is the team’s primary pass catching back, leading the group with 23 targets on the year. Overall, the rotation renders this group GPP-only plays.

At receiver, Western Kentucky has one of the best receivers in the country in Jerrith Sterns ($16,200). Sterns averages 131.3 receiving yards per game on 13 targets. The Houston Baptist transfer totaled 1,707 receiving yards during the regular season for Western Kentucky. Behind him, Mitchell Tinsley ($14,100) hit the transfer portal, vacating 1,300 yards and 111 targets from the offense. Malachi Corley ($11,100) and Daewood Davis ($10,500) should play larger roles as a result. Corley averaged 52.5 receiving yards per game on 7.8 targets, while Davis checked in with 55.2 yards per game on 4.9 targets. Both figure to play every-down roles. The top candidate for the WR4 position looks like Josh Sterns ($1,500). Sterns only participated in 17% of the routes this year, but rotation receiver Craig Burt also transferred, narrowing the potential target distribution. While Sterns is the favorite, a few other candidates include Ben Ratzlaff ($1,500) and Dakota Thomas ($1,500). Sterns is the most likely to earn WR4 duties, but this could be a timeshare, making it an exploitable situation for GPPs.

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Fresno State vs UTEP

Fresno State (31.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 75.3 (25th)

Pass Rate – 56.16% (10th)

The game with the lowest total on the Saturday main slate, Fresno State still holds plenty of intrigue. Overall, Fresno State runs an uptempo and pass heavy offense. The Bulldogs also received seismic news when quarterback Jake Haener ($7,900) withdrew his name from the transfer portal. Haener is not mobile whatsoever, but he averaged 317.7 passing yards per game on 37.4 attempts in Fresno State’s offense this year. This included eight games north of 300 yards and another two above 275.

At the running back position, Ronnie Rivers ($6,100) appears recovered by a mid-season injury. The slightly undersized back averaged 71.4 rushing and 32.9 receiving yards per game on 18.6 touches. Rivers now has at least 19 touches in back-to-back games for Fresno State, with a clear role in the passing game. Behind him, Jordan Mims ($5,900) will play a change of pace role. Mims averages 45.6 rushing and 21.1 receiving yards himself on 10.3 touches per game. However, Mims has below those touch numbers in two of Fresno State’s last three games as he settles back into his change of pace role behind Rivers.

At receiver, Jalen Cropper ($7,000) has blossomed into a true alpha for Fresno State. Cropper battled injury at times this season, depressing his overall stats. However, he still averaged 69.4 yards per game on 9.0 targets. Cropper has not eclipsed nine targets in any of his last four games, but he is still a strong stacking option here. Behind Cropper, Josh Kelly ($5,300) has played consistent football as the WR2. He averages 63.7 yards per game on 6.3 targets. Keric Wheatfall ($4,400) enters this game as the WR3. He averages 48.5 receiving yards on 4.8 targets per game. However, Fresno State has increasingly relied on a rotation at receiver. This group includes Zane Pope ($3,500), Ty Jones ($3,000) and even Erik Brooks ($3,000) for a few snaps here and there. Pope is the most targeted of the group, averaging 2.8 on the year. Jones and Brooks come in at 2.4 and 2.0 targets per game. Behind Cropper, Kelly, and Wheatfall, this group is best left for GPPs.

UTEP (20 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 66.2 (110th)

Pass Rate – 45.33% (78th)

The betting underdog in his contest, UTEP runs a much slower, but balanced passing attack. Led by Gavin Hardison ($5,600), this team finished 7-5 in Conference USA this year. Hardison is not mobile whatsoever, with -52 rushing yards this year. However, he has been efficient as a passer, averaging 247.9 passing yards per game on 27.8 attempts. This includes a pair of games over 300 yards and another three above 250 yards.

The UTEP running back situation has been volatile in 2021. Ronald Awatt ($5,70)0 leads the team with 67 rushing and 9.3 receiving yards per game on 12.8 touches. However, Deion Hankins ($5,500) is not far behind with 44 total yards per game on 11.9 touches. Interestingly, Hankins took on an increased role in UTEP’s season finale, out-touching Awatt 18-7. UTEP has been known to take the hot hand approach, making this situation increasingly volatile. Not to mention, Quardraiz Wadley ($3,000) will siphon off a few touches here and there as well, while Reynaldo Flores ($3,000) leads the position group in targets.

At receiver, Jacob Cowing ($6,400) has been an alpha for the Miners in 2021. Cowing averages 111.4 receiving yards per game on 8.7 targets. While UTEP does not throw with the same frequency as Fresno State, Cowing still accounts for a 33.3% target share in the offense. From there, Justin Garrett ($4,700) also has a 27.9% target share in UTEP’s offense. He only averages 54.8 receiving yards per game on 7.3 targets, but he provides a reliable underneath option for Hardison here. With Walter Dawn going down earlier this year, Tyrin Smith ($3,600) emerged as the WR3 in this offense. Smith averages 42.4 receiving yards per game on 3.9 targets. Over UTEP’s last four games, Smith has a 5.0 target average. In negative game script, UTEP will not hesitate to use four receivers. When in this alignment, Trent Thompson ($3,500) will occupy that fourth receiver spot. He only has ten targets and 81 yards this year, making Smith a significantly better play.

BYU vs UAB

BYU (30.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 68.2 (87th)

Pass Rate – 45.73% (73rd)

Another game with a middling total, BYU remains a 6.5-point favorite after money poured in on UAB to open bowl season. BYU plays slower, run-heavy football overall. Overall, the Cougars are led by dual threat signal caller Jaren Hall ($7,300). Hall has 307 rushing yards on the year, but he missed some time due to injury. He has also shown improvement as a pure passer throughout the season. Hall averages 258.3 passing yards per game on 29.6 attempts. He finished the season with four games above 300 yards and another two above 275.

At running back, Tyler Allgeier ($8,600) played at an elite level this season. Allgeier averaged 118.1 rushing and 15.6 receiving yards per game on 23.3 touches. Allgeier is a likely draft pick in 2022, so his status must be monitored leading up to the bowl. If active, he is a strong play. Behind him, Lopini Katoa ($3,400) has provided a strong change of pace option. Katoa averages 40.2 yards per game on 6.1 touches. He would become one of the best values on the slate without Allgeier. Jackson McChesney ($3,000) would likely also play a role if Allgeier sits out.

BYU ended the regular season with multiple injuries to their starting pass catchers. Gunnar Romney ($6,000) averages 59.9 receiving yards on 4.9 targets per game when healthy, occupying the WR1 slot. However, Romney has suffered from an injury riddled season. He was slated to return for the season finale but tweaked something during warmups and missed the game. WR2 Neil Pau’u ($5,500) also missed the last two games of the year. Pau’u leads the team with 65 targets, but he plays more of an underneath role, averaging 52.6 receiving yards per game. He is tentatively expected to return for the bowl game, but his status must be monitored. With all of these injuries, Puka Nacua ($4,900) finished as the team’s leading receiver, averaging 72.4 receiving yards per game. Nacua also tallied 7.5 targets per game over BYU’s last four contests. He will be an option whether Romney and Pau’u play, or not. If Romney, Pau’u, or both miss this game, Samson Nacua ($3,000) would be the primary beneficiary. Nacua only averaged 26.2 receiving yards per game on 2.9 targets this year. However, his target numbers jumped to 4.8 over BYU’s last four game. If both miss, Keanu Hill ($4,000) would slide in as the WR3. He averaged 3.8 targets per game over BYU’s last four and averaged 28.1 receiving yards per game during the regular season. Even tight end Isaac Rex went down at the end of the season. Without Rex, BYU split tight end reps between Dallin Holker ($3,200) and fullback hybrid Masen Wake ($3,000). Neither are particularly strong options.

UAB (24 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 63.6 (123rd)

Pass Rate – 38.57% (119th)

Despite taking money early in the bowl process, UAB is still implied for just 24 points on this slate. Even more pronounced than BYU, UAB is one of the slowest and run-heaviest teams in the entire country. At quarterback, they will rely on Dylan Hopkins ($5,500) after Tyler Johnston hit the transfer portal. Hopkins is not the most mobile, with 24 rushing yards on the year. He also functions as a game manager, averaging 171.8 passing yards per game on 17.7 attempts. His only 300-yard game this year came against Rice. He only eclipsed 200 yards on four other occasions outside of that. Overall, he is a low upside tournament option only.

At running back, Dewayne McBride ($4,800) handled a majority of the work for UAB this season. However, he sustained an undisclosed injury in the season finale that might limit him here. McBride averaged 100.3 total yards per game on 15.2 touches. Behind McBride, Jermaine Brown ($4,300) has also been involved with 11.4 touches per game. Brown’s volume immediately jumped to 18 touches when McBride went down in the season finale. UAB also lost Lucious Stanley to the transfer portal, potentially testing their depth. Larry Wooden ($3,000) and A.J. Gates ($3,000) are candidates to potentially handle change of pace touches if McBride misses time. UAB’s preference to run the ball and BYU’s 4.4 yards allowed per attempt make this a potential cheaper situation to look at for DFS.

Much of UAB’s receiving production flows through their two tight ends Gerrit Prince ($5,200) and Hayden Pittman ($3,100). Price is the superior receiver with 54.3 yards per game on 4.2 targets. His 651 total yards ranks just behind WR1 Trea Shropshire‘s ($4,600) 681. Ultimately, Shropshire has bigger play capabilities, averaging 56.8 yards per game on 4.0 targets. The TE2 and fourth leading receiver on UAB is Pittman, who notched 183 yards on 23 targets this year. He may be asked to play a larger role after WR2 Rajae Johnson hit the transfer portal, vacating a 14.6% target share and 379 yards in the offense. UAB does not have a clear WR3, to Johnson’s potential replacement is unpredictable. The frontrunner is A.J. Davis ($3,000), who participated in 37.5% of UAB’s routes in their season finale. However, Ryan Davis ($3,200), Semario Rudolph ($3,000), and Tejhaun Palmer ($3,000) have all played rotational snaps for UAB at one point or another Even with all these players near the stone minimum, they probably are not the best options in this run-heavy attack.

Eastern Michigan vs Liberty

Eastern Michigan (25 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 71.1 (58th)

Pass Rate – 54.22% (21st)

One of the better game totals on the board, Eastern Michigan takes on Liberty as a nine-point underdog coming out of the MAC. Eastern Michigan plays slightly above average in terms of pace, but the Eagles are extremely pass heavy. Cincinnati transfer Ben Bryant ($6,100) quarterbacks the offense. Bryant is not mobile whatsoever, with -26 rushing yards on the year. As a passer, he averages 243.6 yards per game on 31.3 attempts. These numbers are somewhat depressed after Bryant initially split time with Preston Hutchinson ($5,300) to open the year. Since taking over as the starter, Bryant has four games above 300 passing yards and another two above 285. Unfortunately, Bryant struggled against Western and Central Michigan to close the year. He did not eclipse 221 yards in either game, suggesting tougher matchups can give him trouble Bryant is a boom-bust option in GPPs based on Eastern Michigan’s offensive environment.

On top of the elevated pass rate, Eastern Michigan runs one of the nastiest running back rotations in the country. Darius Boone ($3,000), Jawon Hamilton ($4,600), Samson Evans ($5,300), and Bryson Moss ($3,000) are all involved on the ground. Hamilton averages 9.5 touches per game and has been the most efficient on the ground with 621 rushing yards. However, Evans has played the more consistent role down the stretch with 22 touches over Eastern Michigan’s last two games. These are the two most likely backs to succeed, but this looks like a timeshare regardless. Liberty also plays solid defense against opposing rushing attacks.

At receiver, Eastern Michigan utilizes three players in Hassan Beydoun ($6,600), Dylan Drummond ($4,800), and Tanner Knue ($5,400). Beydoun has been the team’s leading receiver all year, averaging 75.4 receiving yards on 9.3 targets per game. However, this target average has increased to 12.0 per game in Eastern Michigan’s last three games. Behind him, Knue began the year injured. However, he has slid into the WR2 role, averaging 82 yards per game on 9.3 targets. This leaves Drummond to handle most of the underneath work. He averages 55.4 receiving yards on 7.8 targets per game himself, keeping him viable as a cheaper attachment to this offense. At tight end Bryson Cannon ($3,400) will split time with Thomas Odukoya ($3,100) and Gunnar Oakes ($3,000). Only the receivers are playable here.

Liberty (34 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 73.5 (36th)

Pass Rate – 46.53% (68th)

As for Liberty, the Flames play above average in terms of pace, but they are run heavy behind their dual threat signal caller Malik Willis ($8,700). Willis is expected to be one of the top quarterbacks drafted this year, but he has not announced whether he will skip the bowl game or not. Willis is one of the top dual threat signal callers in the country with 820 cumulative rushing yards this year. As a passer, Willis also averages 219 yards per game on 26.3 attempts. While the raw tools are there, Willis only has two games above 300 yards passing and another two above 100 yards rushing. Still, with his elite dual threat ability, the floor/ceiling combination is secure for Willis. Eastern Michigan also struggles on defense, allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt.

At the running back position, a timeshare at the position and Willis’ involvement typically makes this a situation to avoid. However, Eastern Michigan plays horrific run defense, allowing 5.1 yards per attempt to opposing backs. Joshua Mack ($4,400) is the lead back here with T.J. Green ($3,800) and Shedro Louis ($4,200) providing a change of pace. Mack averages just 41.1 rushing yards per game on 10.7 touches, making him a middling play at best. Louis did not touch the ball in Liberty’s season finale, but no injury has been reported. Either way, Louis and Green are not great options to begin with in a nasty timeshare. Only Mack should be looked at in large field tournaments.

Liberty’s receiving room has somewhat condensed in recent weeks, but this team still prefers to use a timeshare. The top option is Demario Douglas ($5,800) averaging 61.9 yards per game on 5.7 targets. C.J. Daniels ($5,000) is second with 49.2 receiving yards per game on 4.8 targets, while Kevin Shaa ($4,200) checks in third with 35.2 receiving yards per game on 3.7 targets. Interesting, Daniels and Shaa average 5.8 and 5.3 targets per game over Liberty’s last four, while Douglas checks in at 4.8. Daniels and Shaa look like the better price-adjusted values between the three. However, Liberty will also involve Noah Firth ($3,700) and D.J. Stubbs ($3,800). Both average 3.3 targets per game on the year. However, Firth averages 4.5 over Liberty’s last four, compared to 2.8 for Stubbs. Tight end Johnny Huntley ($3,300) also averages 2.5 targets per game over Liberty’s last four. Overall, Firth and Stubbs participated in 30% and 33% of Liberty’s routes in their season finale, while Huntley participated in 45%. Douglas, Daniels, and Shaa checked in at 63%, 70% and 75% respectively.

Oregon State vs Utah State

Oregon State (37.25 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 67.9 (89th)

Pass Rate – 40.29% (111th)

Easily the highest total on the board, Oregon State is implied for 37.25 points as a 7.5-point favorite over Utah State here. Interestingly, Oregon State plays very slow, run-heavy football. Their quarterback remains Chance Nolan ($7,000). Nolan is mobile, with 222 cumulative rushing yards this year. He only averages 200.9 passing yards per game on 24 attempts, but he also missed some time towards the beginning of the year. Nolan eclipsed 240 yards in four of his last five games in the regular season for Oregon State. This included a 308-yard performance against Oregon in the season finale. Oregon State’s offense does not provide the same upside as others on this slate, but their team total remains high enough to target here.

Somewhat surprisingly, Oregon State has possessed one of the more potent rushing attacks in the conference this year. B.J. Baylor ($6,700) leads this group, averaging 109.3 yards per game on 18.3 touches. Behind him, Deshaun Fenwick ($3,500) has been a strong change of pace back, averaging 7.6 touches per game himself. However, Fenwick missed Oregon State’s season finale and should be considered questionable here. If Fenwick cannot go, Trey Lowe ($3,200) could also handle an expanded workload. Lowe averages 6.5 touches per game himself and leads the group with 27 targets. Utah State plays middling run defense, allowing 4.5 yards per attempt, making this a solid situation to target for DFS.

Oregon State has not played with much consistency at the receiver position this year. Trevon Bradford ($5,600) is their top option, but he only averages 50.3 receiving yards per game on 4.9 targets. Behind him, Tre’Shaun Harrison ($3,800) and Tyjon Lindsey ($4,100) are the top two options. They average 3.3 and 3.2 targets per game with less than 30 receiving yards per contest. Harrison has also seen a sharp role reduction down the stretch. he has not eclipsed 40% of the routes in back-to-back weeks, while Zeriah Beason ($3,300) jumped up to a 50% route share in Oregon State’s season finale. Beason has nine combined targets over Oregon State’s last two games making him a potential punt here. At tight end, Luke Musgrave ($3,700) is the third-most targeted receiver on this team. Still, he only averages 21.7 receiving yards per game on 2.8 targets. Oregon State will also rotate in Champ Flemings ($3,600), Anthony Gould ($3,000), and Teagan Quitoriano ($3,700) for rotational snaps at receiver, complicating this situation further. While the implied team total is high, sticking with Bradford and Lindsey looks like the best option for the Oregon State passing attack.

Utah State (29.75 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 78.5 (9th)

Pass Rate – 49.15% (55th)

After falling short in the Mountain West Championship. Utah State is just a touchdown underdog to Oregon State here. The Aggies play extremely fast with a pass-heavy approach. Arkansas State transfer Logan Bonner ($7,700) leads this passing attack, while Andrew Peasley ($7,400) occasionally plays in gadget situations. Peasley has been battling an injury, so he may not even be available for this contest. However, Bonner is the primary signal caller anyway. Bonner averages 275.6 passing yards per game on 32.5 attempts. He is not the most mobile, with 66 cumulative rushing yards on the year. However, Utah State’s offense provides plenty of upside for Bonner. Bonner already has five games over 300 yards this year and another with 298 yards. This includes a 318-yard performance against one of the conference’s best defenses in San Diego State in the conference championship. Bonner is GPP viable here.

In the run game, Calvin Tyler ($4,900) functions as Utah State’s lead back with Elelyon Noa ($3,700) playing a change of pace role. Tyler averages 75 yards per game on 16.8 touches, while Noa checks in at 49.6 yards per game on 11.2 touches. Oregon State also allows 4.5 yards per rushing attempt, making this a viable situation to target for tournaments. Tyler is the better cost adjusted play between these two backs.

One of the more dynamic passing attacks in the Mountain West, Utah State’s receiving corps starts with Deven Thompkins ($7,500). Thompkins averaged an absurd 123.6 receiving yards per game on 11.5 targets in Utah State’s offense. Behind him, Derek Wright ($5,700) consistently played as the team’s WR2. Wright notched 58.2 receiving yards per game on 6.1 targets for Utah State. Arkansas State transfer Brandon Bowling ($6,100) has also made an impact. While his 60% route participation rate lacks behind the other three receivers, Bowling ranks second on the team in receiving yards. As a big play threat Bowling is still a solid cost-adjusted play here. Rounding out the receiver room, possession receiver Justin McGriff ($3,400) averages 31.5 receiving yards per game on 4.7 targets. McGriff plays almost every snap, but he spends a majority of his time running wind sprints. Still, he is a cheap attachment to an explosive passing attack here.

Louisiana vs Marshall

Louisiana (30.25 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 70.3 (65th)

Pass Rate – 42.89% (97th)

Another game with a middling total, Louisiana enters this game with a team total north of 30 points. Overall, Louisiana plays around the league average in terms of pace, but Louisiana typically favors the run. Louisiana lost their head coach Billy Napier to Florida, along with multiple assistants. Napier, in particular, will not coach Louisiana in their bowl. At quarterback, veteran signal caller Levi Lewis ($7,100) will lead the team. Lewis is mobile, with 269 rushing yards this year. However, Louisiana often uses him as a game manager. As a passer, he averages just 203.8 passing yards per game on 27.7 attempts. Lewis only reached 300 passing yards once this year and that occurred against Nicholls State.

Louisiana typically uses a running back by committee and 2021 was no different. Chris Smith ($4,700) led the group with 71.3 yards per game on 13.2 touches. However, Smith has already been ruled out of this game. Montrell Johnson ($4,000) averaged 64.2 rushing yards on 11.8 touches and Emani Bailey ($5,200) checked in with 67.4 yards on 9.8 touches per game. Rightfully so, Bailey handled an expanded workload down the stretch for Louisiana. He led the team in touches in each of their last three games, reaching at least 14 touches in each of those games. Marshall plays middling run defense, allowing 4.3 yards per rush attempt, but Bailey is the best bet at exploiting this. Without Smith, both, Bailey and Johnson should see elevated opportunity. Louisiana may also take a look at T.J. Wisham ($3,000) as a depth piece. Wisham only has ten carries on the year, so focusing on Bailey and Johnson looks like the best idea here.

Unfortunately for DFS, Louisiana plays with upwards of eight pass catchers on a weekly basis. Peter LeBlanc ($3,800) leads the team with 420 receiving yards on 49 targets, but he has not eclipsed 30% of the team’s routes in back-to-back weeks after getting benched. Jalen Williams ($3,000) has run the most routes at 64% and 69% in back-to-back weeks. Errol Rogers ($3,300) is the second most involved receiver with a 51% route share over that span of time. However, Rogers has ten targets over Louisiana’s last two games, compared to three for Williams. Kyren Lacy ($4,500), Dontae Fleming ($3,400), John Stephens ($3,600), Neal Johnson ($3,500), and Michael Jefferson ($4,300) also play consistent but unexciting roles. The overall timeshare makes this a situation to avoid, but the top two plays are Williams and Rogers at cheaper prices.

Marshall (25.25 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 72.6 (41st)

Pass Rate – 52.82% (32nd)

A slight underdog here, Marshall plays above average in terms of pace and pass rate. Quarterback Grant Wells ($8,300) has played excellent football for Marshall throughout the year. Wells is not the most mobile quarterback with just 62 cumulative rushing yards this year. However, he averages 284.6 passing yards per game on 35 attempts. Marshall’s defense leaves much to be desired, often forcing Wells into shootout situations. On the year, he eclipsed 300 passing yards on six occasions, giving him the requisite upside to target in tournaments.

Looking at Marshall’s run game, the Herd flow through Rasheen Ali ($7,500). One of the underappreciated feature backs in the country, Ali averaged 102.4 rushing and 28.3 receiving yards per game on 23.7 touches. Ali is also extremely involved as a pass catcher, averaging six targets per game over Marshall’s last four games. Sheldon Evans ($3,900) is a solid change of pace, but a vast majority of the touches will go to Ali. Louisiana plays solid run defense in a weak conference, making Ali a volume-based play on this DFS slate.

Marshall’s offense has scored points in bunches at times this year. This has included the receiver position and particularly Corey Gammage ($6,800). Gammage averages 69 yards per game on 8.7 targets as the team’s leading receiver. Behind him, tight end Xavier Gaines ($3,900) has been the second most targeted pass catcher, but Willie Johnson ($3,900) is the team’s second leading receiver. Johnson currently has 617 receiving yards on the year to Gaines’ 467. Since returning from injury, Talik Keaton ($3,600) has also reclaimed his role as the WR3 a 60% route share over the last two weeks. He may have even worked himself ahead of Johnson. Keaton has out targeted Johnson 11-4 over Marshall’s last two games. From there, Shadeed Ahmed ($5,900) and Jayden Harrison ($3,000) have both fallen back into a rotational role. Ahmed is simply too expensive for his role and Harrison is risky himself. Gammage is the most secure option in the offense, but Gaines, Keaton, and Johnson hold varying levels of intrigue here.


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Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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