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College Football DFS: Week 10 DraftKings & FanDuel CFB Picks | Thursday, 11/4/2021

Matt Gajewski



CFB DFS Picks DraftKings FanDuel College Football NCAAF daily fantasy optimal lineup optimizer free expert projections rankings ownership today tonight this week Week 10 Levi Lewis Louisiana ULL

Week 10 action continues with a Thursday showdown slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. This college football DFS breakdown will look at both teams and provide information about each skill position player of note. Make sure to check out our projections, depth charts and datasheets for more information. With that said, let’s dive into the first iteration of the Week 10 CFB DFS picks for Thursday’s matchup.

College Football DFS: Week 10 Thursday CFB Picks

Georgia State vs. Louisiana Lafayette

Georgia State (20.25 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 71.4 (53rd)

Pass Rate – 38.18% (118th)

Georgia State enters this game with a 4-4 record overall but a 3-1 record in the Sun Belt. They played a difficult slate of non-conference games, which included losses to Army, North Carolina and Auburn. Inside the Sun Belt they lost to Appalachian State, but they have victories over Charlotte, Louisiana-Monroe, Texas State and Georgia Southern. Just like last year, Georgia State is extremely run heavy while playing at a decent pace. Their play volume has dropped from the 76.2 plays per game they ran last year. This has positively regressed in conference play, and Georgia State should continue to play with pace.

After losing his starting job to Darren Grainger ($15,900), Cornelious Brown ($9,000) entered the transfer portal. Now without any threat behind him, Grainger should continue his breakout season. Grainger is an excellent dual threat with 403 yards rushing already this year. As a passer he averages 131.3 yards on 17.7 attempts in a low-volume passing attack. Still only a freshman, Grainger is completing 60.2% of his passes for 7.5 yards per attempt. He has not shown much of a ceiling as a passer, with just two games at or above 200 yards. However, his elite mobility makes him a solid play on the Showdown slate.

At running back Destin Coates also hit the transfer portal after losing his starting job. Georgia State employs a committee featuring Tucker Gregg ($13,500) and Jamyest Williams ($10,800). Gregg averages 72.8 yards on 12 touches per game, and Williams averages 51.9 yards on eight touches per game. Coates vacates another 8.2 touches, so the opportunities for Gregg and Williams should climb in the coming weeks. Gregg has 21 and 16 carries in back to back games, while Williams handled eight and 12. Marcus Carroll ($1,800) occasionally handles change-of-pace touches, but Gregg and Williams are the two main backs here. Louisiana allows 153 yards rushing per game, creating a solid matchup for these two on the ground.

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Georgia State’s receivers have rotated at various points this year. Their recent stud has been Sam Pinckney ($5,700). Pinckney has participated in 84% and 91% of routes over the last two weeks, and no other receiver has eclipsed 63%. He also averages 4.8 targets per game over Georgia State’s last three games. With that said, Ja’Cyais Credle ($4,500) and Terrance Dixon ($7,800) are playing plenty for this Georgia State team. Both have route rates 60% or higher in Georgia State’s last two games. Credle averages 5.3 targets per game over Georgia State’s last three games, which leads the team. Dixon averages just 3.8, but he is extremely involved. Jamari Thrash ($8,400) has seen his opportunity fall; after starting the season as a focal point of the offense, he has eclipsed 50% of the teams’ routes in just one of their last four games. He still leads the team in targets and has at least five in three of their last four games. However, he has not been the alpha from the beginning of the year. One potential wrinkle could be the return of Cornelius McCoy ($7,500). McCoy has been sidelined by a hamstring for multiple weeks now. While a return is not expected, McCoy plays a large role for this team when healthy. At tight end Aubry Payne ($7,200) will split time with Roger Carter ($3,000). Carter has run slightly more routes of late, but Payne averages 3.3 targets per game over Georgia State’s last four, compared to 2.0 for Carter.

Louisiana Lafayette (33.25 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 70.6 (62nd)

Pass Rate – 43.12% (92nd)

Now 7-1, Louisiana’s only loss this year came to Texas in their opener. Outside of that, they have played a low level of competition, featuring wins over Ohio, Georgia Southern, South Alabama, App State, Arkansas State and Texas State. Four of their seven wins were by single digits. Like Georgia State, Louisiana typically plays run heavy football. However, unlike the Panthers, they play at a slightly slower pace. Combined, this game should be played around the league-average pace.

At quarterback Levi Lewis ($16,800) will operate as a game manager for Louisiana. He has 156 yards rushing this year and averages 207 as a passer on 28.4 attempts. Lewis is completing 62.6% of his passes for 7.3 yards per attempt. However, he does not have much of a ceiling, with just one 300-yard game, which came against Nicholls State. He has been over 200 yards in six of eight games, which gives him a reasonable floor but middling ceiling. As a rusher he has two games above 60 yards and six below 20.

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Louisiana uses a three-back committee led by Chris Smith ($3,000). Smith averages 83.1 yards per game on 13.6 touches. Behind him, Montrell Johnson ($11,700) is also involved. Johnson averages 70.4 yards per game on 12 touches. Emani Bailey ($3,900) missed last week’s game with an injury and will miss another contest here. Bailey accounts for 52 yards per game on 7.4 touches. Without Bailey, T.J. Wisham ($2,400) and Terrence Williams ($1,500) carried the ball six and five times, respectively. Williams out-snapped Wisham 19-7. Williams becomes a GPP dart throw here because it is possible Louisiana simply relies more on Smith and Johnson in competitive games. All six of Wisham’s carries came on the final drive, while Williams only had one carry in the first half.

At receiver Louisiana continues to whimsically rotate their pass catchers. Kyren Lacy ($8,700) is the only somewhat consistent option as the only receiver to participate in at least 50% of the routes over the team’s last three games. Peter LeBlanc ($5,400) technically operates as the WR2, but he has not eclipsed 44% of the routes in back-to-back games. He still leads the team in targets over that span. Last week John Stephens ($9,600) and Errol Rogers ($5,100) popped up for four targets apiece. They will rotate with Dontae Fleming ($6,600), Jalen Williams ($4,200) and Michael Jefferson ($8,100) as well. Even the right end position has become a rotation with Neal Johnson ($2,100), Johnny Lumpkin ($3,300) and Pearse Migl ($1,500). Lacy and LeBlanc look like two options worth prioritizing, but otherwise the cheaper the better in this nasty receiver rotation.

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Alex Baker, the No. 1 DFS player in the world, developed and maintains the CFB DFS ownership projections for DraftKings. Check out our industry-leading FanDuel CFB DFS projections. Looking for more college football DFS picks for FanDuel and FanDuel college football DFS picks?

Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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