Week 12 action continues with a Thursday showdown slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. This college football DFS breakdown will look at both teams and provide information about each skill position player of note. Make sure to check out Awesemo’s projections, depth charts and datasheets for more information. With that said, let’s dive into this week’s iteration of the Week 12 CFB DFS picks for Thursday’s matchup.
College Football DFS: Week 12 Thursday CFB Picks
Louisville vs. Duke
Louisville (40.25 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 70.8 (63rd)
Pass Rate – 43.33% (91st)
Louisville’s quarterback, Malik Cunningham ($18,000) is easily the highest-projected scorer on the slate. Cunningham is extremely active as a rusher, with 709 yards on the ground this year. He has received a beating at times, but Cunningham continues to play through injury. He throws for 229.4 yards per game on 27.5 attempts. Duke plays horrific defense across the board, giving Cunningham a chance to succeed on the ground or through the air. Cunningham only has one 300-yard game this year, but he has four others above 260 yards. He also has two 100-yard rushing games and another at 99. Cunningham has a safe floor/ceiling combination.
At running back Jalen Mitchell ($11,400) re-emerged as Louisville’s top back after previously ceding work to Trevion Cooley ($7,200) and Hassan Hall ($1,500). Hall has now entered the transfer portal, but Cooley should still play a role with his 7.9 touches per game. Mitchell averages 81 yards rushing and 8 receiving on 14.4 touches himself. Last week Louisville also involved Maurice Burkley ($1,500) and Jawhar Jordan ($2,400) in a change-of-pace role. As three-touchdown favorites, both could see work in garbage time. Mitchell is still the best option.
After losing Braden Smith early in the year, Louisville narrowed their receiver rotation. Tight end Marshon Ford ($10,200) leads the team with 50 targets, but he only has 400 yards to show for it. Jordan Watkins ($9,900) has 496 yards on 47 targets and has been more involved than Ford of late. Over Louisville’s last three games, Watkins has averaged 4.8 targets to Ford’s 3.8. Justin Marshall ($4,500) should continue to function as the WR2 despite going without a target last week. He has 315 yards on 30 targets this year. WR3 Ahmari Huggins-Bruce ($10,800) checks in with 315 yards on 29 targets, but he runs fewer routes. Both Tyler Harrell ($8,700) and former Georgia Southern quarterback Shai Werts ($1,500) will rotate, with Huggins-Bruce as the WR3. With Marshall and Werts coming in so cheap, they should be the preferred punt plays.
Duke (19.75 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 81.6 (3rd)
Pass Rate – 42.92% (94th)
Gunnar Holmberg ($15,900) missed Duke’s last game with an injury. He reportedly returned to practice, but he split reps with Riley Leonard ($9,000) and Jordan Moore ($9,000). When healthy Holmberg has been decent. He is somewhat mobile, with 169 yards on the ground this year. He also averages 225.4 yards passing per game, benefiting from Duke’s uptempo scheme. The issues with Holmberg are job security and health. Leonard drew the start without Holmberg last week, but Moore also played. Neither played well, but both are fairly mobile. If Holmberg misses this game, Leonard likely will start and be in play for tournaments. However, this likely remains a timeshare to some degree, making it a difficult situation to trust.
Duke’s top player is running back Mateo Durant ($15,300). Durant averages 109.7 yards rushing and 22.5 receiving per game. Durant only handled 10 carries last week with Duke getting blown out. That will always be a risk with the Blue Devils, but more often than not he succeeds. Holmberg’s return would be positive for Durant, but he is a strong play regardless.
At receiver Jake Bobo ($12,300) is the team’s WR1. Bobo has 660 yards receiving on 8.5 targets per game. Jalon Calhoun ($14,400) has been more efficient with 624 yards on 5.8 targets. However, the price difference makes Bobo the superior play. Behind them Eli Pancol ($7,800) is the true WR3, but he will split time. He has a 50% route share over the last two weeks, while Jarett Garner ($2,100), Darrell Harding ($3,300) and Jontavis Robertson ($1,500) have 40%, 32% and 21% route shares over the last two games. At tight end Jake Marwede ($3,900) splits time with Nicky Dalmolin ($1,800). Of this group, Garner looks like the top price-adjusted play.
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