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College Football DFS: Week 7 DraftKings & FanDuel CFB Picks | Tuesday, 10/12/2021

Matt Gajewski

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College Football DFS Picks CFB Week 7 Tuesday night football Appalachian State Louisiana tonight free expert advice tips strategy best bets today this week Chase Brice optimal lineup optimizer

Week 7 action kicks off with a Tuesday showdown slate, and DraftKings and FanDuel have great contests for these games. This college football DFS breakdown will look at both teams and provide information about each skill position player of note. Make sure to check out our projections, depth charts and datasheets for more information. With that said, let’s dive into the first iteration of the Week 7 CFB DFS picks for Friday’s matchup.

College Football DFS: Week 7 Tuesday CFB Picks

Appalachian State vs. Louisiana

Appalachian State (31 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 76.2 (26th)

Pass Rate – 44.59% (82nd)

Appalachian State enters this game with a 4-1 record, and their only loss came to Miami, 25-23. Their wins include East Carolina, Elon, Marshall and Georgia State. Unlike previous years, Appalachian State has drastically increased their pace. They are still below average in terms of pass rate, but even that took a jump from 38.4% last year to 44.6% this year. Appalachian State is a 5-point favorite, giving them clear advantages here.

At quarterback Clemson transfer Chase Brice ($16,500) has some mobility, with 28 cumulative yards rushing this year. He has also been far more efficient than past seasons, averaging 272.4 yards passing per game on 30.8 attempts. This also pops up in his 68% completion percentage and 8.9 yards per attempt this year. He is an excellent Captain on tonight’s slate.

Appalachian State’s running backs continue to deal with injuries. Last week Camerun Peoples ($14,100) sat out after missing practice late. He was reported to be a game-time decision, so there is a decent chance he will play here and form a 50/50 timeshare with Nate Noel ($9,600). Noel has been the more efficient back, with 101.8 yards rushing per game, while Peoples checks in with 88 on nearly identical opportunity. With Peoples out, former linebacker Anderson Castle ($5,100) and Notre Dame transfer Jahmir Smith ($1,500) popped up for 12 and seven carries, respectively. It should also be noted that Daetrich Harrington ($3,300) is reportedly healthy and close to a return. The coaching staff noted that they almost gave Harrington a few carries last week, pointing to a return in the near future. All things considered, Noel is the safest play here. Noel missed the second half of last week’s game with a pinky toe sprain, but he should be healthy.

At receiver Corey Sutton ($15,300) has re-emerged as Appalachian State’s alpha after missing last year. He is averaging 94 yards per game on 9.8 targets. His 49 targets equate to a 30.4% target share. With Sutton’s increased role, Thomas Hennigan ($8,700) has become more of a role player. He is still averaging 65.2 yards per game and ranks second on the team in targets. However, this only equates to 5.8 per contest. The WR3 is clearly Malik Williams ($12,600), with Jalen Virgil ($2,400) playing just rotational snaps. Williams ranks third on the team in targets (26) and yards (296). His price is confusing, with Hennigan a bit cheaper on DraftKings. Appalachian State continues to rotate all other pass catchers to the point where none are usable. Dashaun Davis ($1,500) would be the top pure dart throw among this group.

Louisiana (26 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 69.5 (70th)

Pass Rate – 47.76% (75th)

Louisiana also has a 4-1 record. Their only loss came in their opener at the hands of Texas. From there, they have rattled off three straight wins against Nicholls State, Ohio, Georgia Southern and South Alabama. Like last year, Louisiana is about league average in terms of pace and pass rate.

Veteran quarterback Levi Lewis ($15,900) has solid mobility, with 122 yards on the ground already this year. He is more of a game manager, averaging just 219.4 yards passing per game on exactly 30 attempts. This is also reflected in his 62.7% completion and 7.3 yards per attempt. Brice is the better quarterback to Captain, but both are viable.

The Ragin Cajuns will utilize three running backs. Chris Smith ($10,200) leads with 60 touches his year, and he is averaging 46.2 yards per game and another eight targets and 36 yards in the pass game. He also leads with his 44.6% route rate. Montrell Johnson ($4,500) and Emani Bailey ($8,400) also have similar workloads, with 54 and 43 touches, respectively. Johnson has been the most efficient, with 46.6 yards per game and another 35 as a receiver. Bailey checks in at 36.2 yards per game and 48 total in the pass game on the year. All three backs are viable options, with Johnson looking like the top price-adjusted play of the group.

At receiver Dontae Fleming ($5,700) leads a nasty rotation in targets (19) and yards receiving (166). No receiver has a route share north of 46% on the year. Kyren Lacy ($6,900) paces the group, with 45% of routes. Behind Lacy and Fleming, tight end Neal Johnson ($1,,800) has the next-best route rate, at 41%. Jalen Williams ($2,700), Peter LeBlanc ($3,000), John Stephens ($10,800), Michael Johnson ($7,800) and Errol Rogers ($3,900) all run routes between 22% and 39% of the time. Stephens has the most egregious price tag after seeing 13 targets and 99 yards on the year. LeBlanc is the team’s former leading receiver and has an attractive price tag. Rogers also missed time due to injury earlier in the year, depressing his route rate. He recently jumped up to 57% of the routes in Louisiana’s most recent game. The cheaper options look like the players to target.

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Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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