CFB Betting: College Football is set to get underway in late August and there is a ton to breakdown with DFS and sportsbetting in the mix. Unlike the NFL we have 100+ teams in Division 1 NCAA Football, so there is plenty of edge if you dig in and find some undervalued and dark horse type teams and players that could pay dividends as the season begins. This article is going to breakdown whether I’m buying or selling on a handful of team’s college football odds.
Buy
Michigan Wolverines (Make Playoff +275)
Jim Harbaugh was brought in to beat Ohio State and four years in its been more of the same for the maize and blue as Ohio State enters 2019 having won seven straight against Michigan. The window is closing fast on this Harbaugh era and he really needs to A) beat Ohio State and B) Get Michigan into the playoff in the near future. This year Michigan returns QB Shea Patterson, and 8 starters on offense so they should have their best offensive number in recent years.
On the defensive side they did lose some big name players in Devin Bush and Winovich, but with DC Don Brown still there they simply reload on that side of the ball so I have no concerns about this defensive unit slipping much if at all.
Looking over the schedule we see that Michigan gets Notre Dame, Michigan State and Ohio State all at home so the majority of their big name opponents will be traveling to Ann Arbor this season. The daunting road games look to be at Penn St and at Wisconsin, but for a team with playoff aspirations you cannot ask for a much better setup this season.
I believe that Michigan has a very real shot to run the table which would obviously mean a win vs Ohio State and a playoff berth and that would take a ton of pressure off Harbaugh and this program.
Oregon Ducks (Over 8.5 -145)
I mentioned in my Five Big Questions article that the hype around Utah is sky high in the PAC-12 , but that there was another team in that conference I think can get to the playoff this season. Oregon is a team I’m definitely buying this year and once QB and potential top pick Justin Herbert decided to return for his Senior season they immediately vaulted into the conversation for dark horse playoff team. The offense returns 10 starters and gets a quality transfer in WR Juwan Johnson from Penn State so they have everything they need to be a high powered offensive unit. Furthermore this offensive line has 153 starts under their belt which is far and away the most in the nation and makes them arguably the best unit in the entire country.
Defense hasn’t been the calling card of Oregon, but they return seven starters this year and add in Kayvon Thibodeaux who was the #1 DL recruit in the country so he should contribute immediately. The secondary should be the strength of this defense with plenty of experience and talent returning so the stage is set for this to be a balanced team with no glaring weaknesses.
The schedule is another factor though and certainly one I’m a little worried about as Oregon goes to Dallas for a neutral site game against Auburn right out of the gate on August 31st. This is a borderline elimination game for the Ducks if they really want to reach the playoff so we will immediately know if this team is for real. If they can survive that the schedule opens up and we know how deadly this team has been in Eugene for years so it’s just a matter of taking care of business away from home.
Florida State (Over 7.5 -125)
Just to give you some context on how disappointing Florida State was last year : it was the first time they’ve had a losing season since 1976 and first year not reaching a bowl since 1982. Clearly Willie Taggart needs to rebound after his awful first year and if he is going to they need to fix the offensive line. Florida State returns eight starters on both offense and defense including RB Cam Akers who should be in line for a big Junior season pending he can get help up front.
We will get an immediate indicator if this team is legit right out of the gate as they get a dangerous Boise St team in Jacksonville to open the year and then a cupcake game before diving into the ACC schedule. The season got away from the Noles last year and with plenty of talent and more stability on the O-Line this should be a completely different team this season.
Expectations have certainly changed from what we normally see in Tallahassee as the O/U win total this year is 7.5 for the Noles, but I think they eclipse that number and bounce back after a season that was one of the ugliest in the programs history.
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Sell
Mississippi State (Under 8 wins +115)
Mississippi State isn’t getting a ton of buzz and they aren’t part of the National Title conversation, but there still is value in looking at teams like this before the season starts. They are coming off an eight win season in 2018, but the losses on both sides of the ball make me think they take a big step back this season.
Offense
On offense do everything QB Nick Fitzgerald departs and it looks like Penn St Grad Transfer Tommy Stevens will be in the mix to take over under center. Regardless who wins the job they won’t be able to replicate Fitzgerald’s production and that could limit this offensive as a whole. Add in that they have to go against SEC teams for the majority of this schedule and it further adds to the pressure on this offense to produce.
Defense
Defensively the losses are everywhere with only four starters returning and THREE 1st round NFL Draft picks all departing from the 2018 defense. That is going to be impossible to replace and the loss of those top end players will be felt as MSU doesn’t simply reload like some of the big name programs across the country.
Schedule wise Mississippi St has three winnable although not gimme non-conference games right out of the gate in Louisiana, Southern Miss and Kansas St, but then the SEC schedule begins and I don’t see many wins in conference. They do get a free W later in the year with Abilene Christian , but they still would need a winning SEC record to get to 9 wins and that’s assuming they run the table in their non-conference schedule. Overall the losses on both sides of the ball I think are too much to overcome and it would be shocking to see MSU fighting for a bowl berth late in this season.
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West Virginia (Under 5.5 Wins -140)
There will be a new look in Morgantown this year as Dana Holgorsen departs after eight seasons and now Neal Brown takes over and inherits a team riddled with questions marks. They lose eight starters on offense including their Heisman trophy contender in Will Grier so the drop off could be drastic. Add in that the top four pass catchers leave with him and its going to be a tough ask to match last year’s numbers for whoever wins this starting QB job.
Defensively its not much brighter as only six starters return and that was before two top end players in the secondary decided to move on so it leaves them even more vulnerable on the backend. This isn’t the ideal situation for the first year head coach and then we get a look at the schedule which to me is the final nail in the coffin.
West Virginia opens against an FCS team in James Madison which you think might be an auto win, but that’s far from the case as JMU is a quality team who made the FCS Playoff last year. They then travel to Missouri and get NC State before starting their BIG12 conference schedule. I don’t see many wins on this year’s schedule and even though Under 5.5 wins would mean one of the worst seasons in recent years for West Virginia it seems like the probable result given where this team stands.
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Good Luck everyone!Â
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