CFB Season Preview: Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, & Heisman Trophy Odds 2019

CFB Season Preview: College Football is set to kickoff in late August and just like the NFL we have a ton of options for future bets before we get underway. There are plenty of ways for us to wager on teams we are high on, or to try and short some of the rosters that we think may be in for a rough 2019 season. In addition, we have the College Football odds for the Heisman Trophy out. Similar to the NFL MVP, the Heisman winner is a blend of being in the right situation and having the right skillset. Before we dive into who are the major contenders and a few longshot picks lets take a look at what we have seen in recent years about who is taking down this award.

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Historical Trends

Looking over the history of the Heisman Award we see that a quarterback has won it three straight years and eight out of the last ten so immediately we need to be drawn to the signal callers. With so many Quarterbacks being dual threat their ability to rack up insane stat lines makes it tough for running backs to stay viable. Similar to the NFL being on a team who is competitive is always a plus and lately it seems like the west coast is a death sentence for your Heisman chances. Since 2006 only Marcus Mariota at Oregon in 2014 has taken down the award from the west coast, the rest have been in more prominent time slots which may be a factor.

College Football Odds

Shopping around for the best odds is important, so you may see different values than what we have listed below. Here is a breakdown of the top odds for this year’s Heisman Trophy:

Trevor Lawrence QB Clemson +260         Tua Tagovailoa QB Alabama +260

Justin Fields QB Ohio State +900              Jalen Hurts QB Oklahoma +1000

Adrian Martinez QB Nebraska +1300      Jake Fromm QB Georgia +1400

Sam Ehlinger QB Texas +1500                   Justin Hebert QB Oregon +1600

Shea Patterson QB Michigan +2500          Jonathan Taylor RB Wisconsin +3000

D’Andre Swift RB Georgia +4000              D’Eriq King QB Houston +5000

As we work farther down the list we have some deep long shote. There are guys not listed who are even deeper in the 100/1 + range, but realistically this is where the overwhelming majority of win equity is for the Heisman this season.

The Two Favorites

Trevor Lawrence – QB, Clemson

Him and Tua are the heavy favorites as they lead the two best teams in the country and the teams who are coming off last years National Championship game. Last year Lawrence didn’t fully take the reins until midway thru the season, but after that he quickly showed why he was the answer and the future at Clemson. The True Freshman tossed 30 touchdowns, and in the two playoff games he posted six touchdowns and no picks against Notre Dame and then Bama. This year he returns for his Sophomore season and has an embarrassment of riches at WR so the numbers could be gigantic. There will be plenty of games where Clemson calls off the dogs early and Lawrence is watching the 4th quarter, but potentially leading an undefeated defending national championship is the perfect recipe for a Heisman trophy contender.

Tua Tagovailoa – QB, Alabama

Tua seemed like a lock to take down the Heisman last year, but Kylar Murray went ballistic and ended up getting the job done. Part of the problem for Tua was he and Bama were too dominant and he barely threw any passes in the 4th quarter in the majority of games. He still had a huge line of 43 touchdowns and only six picks despite being banged up in the second half of the season so we know how big the ceiling can be. Similar to Lawrence, he has an insane cast of weapons around him, with RB Najee Harris and WR Jerry Jeudy both able to generate some low-key Heisman talk for themselves this season. Tua and Alabama both should have revenge on their mind in 2019 and he is clearly also in a perfect situation to get over the hump and take down the award.

The Best of the Rest

After Trevor and Tua it is wide open for someone to have a big season and get into the mix for the Heisman. Justin Fields is a transfer from Georgia who takes over at Ohio State, but he has basically no experience and Urban Meyer isn’t there leading the program.

Alabama passed on Jalen Hurts for Tua, but Hurts now goes to Oklahoma where Lincoln Riley has produced the last two Heisman winners in Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray.

D’Andre Swift is the guy I would target if I had to take a non QB as he should really be in line for a huge year down at Georgia. The problem for him is A) He is a RB and B) He will be competing with Georgia’s QB Jake Fromm for the Heisman hype making it a really tough situation to stand out in.

Interested in learning about stacking in NFL DFS? Check out our latest Fantasy Crunch video with Awesemo and Chris Randone.

Final Thoughts

The Heisman trophy award is in some ways a popularity contest as it’s a cast of media voters from all across the country and also any of the former Heisman winners are eligible to cast a vote as well. This is part of the reason that the west coast players can be at a disadvantage and that being on a team with a lot of national championship hype is a huge positive. This year its clearly a two horse race with Clemson and Alabama’s QB leading the charge and unless someone can really stand out its hard to imagine anyone besides Tua or Trevor holding the Trophy come December.

Good Luck everyone!

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Author
*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].

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