Welcome to the Week 11 CFB DFS Picks and Game Breakdowns. This breakdown will detail all of the notable DFS players we’re eyeing for daily fantasy football lineups for Friday’s slate. And don’t forget to check out the College Football DFS and Betting show every Saturday at 10 a.m. EST.
[AUGUSTA]
Week 11 DraftKings CFB DFS Picks + Matchup Breakdown
CFB DFS Matchup: Iowa vs Minnesota
CFB DFS Analysis: Iowa (31 Team Total)
Offense – Iowa’s head coach is Kirk Ferentz, and his nepotistic coaching staff features his son Brian Ferentz at offensive coordinator. Iowa is currently running 74 plays per game and passing 55% of the time. They’ve been getting smashing so far this year, outside of a blowout win over Michigan State. Their offense has been extremely sensitive to game script, running when ahead and passing from behind. Last year, they ran 68.5 plays per game and passed 49.1% of the time.
Spencer Petras ($6,200) – Wildly underwhelming, Petras has completed 54.3% of his passes this year for 5.3 yards per attempt. He averages 216 yards per game on 39.7 attempts. The volume is solid and should keep Petras in play on short slates. Minnesota’s horrific defense also makes Petras an interesting contrarian stacking option.
Tyler Goodson ($7,200) – Sophomore sensation Goodson leads Iowa’s backfield with 43 carries and 11 targets in three games. Goodson averages 79 yards as a rusher and another 22.3 as a receiver. Mekhi Sargent ($4,800) plays a decent amount, but his increased volume came as a result of a blowout against Michigan State last week. Look for Goodson to handle a majority of the work as a true three-down back in this offense.
Ihmir Smith-Marsette ($5,800) – Serving a laughable one-game suspension for a DUI, Smith-Marsette will reportedly take the field against Minnesota. When healthy, Smith-Marsette is the top receiving option for this Hawkeyes’ team. Last year he racked up 722 yards on 44 receptions, adding 108 yards as a rusher. His route rate still hovers around 77% because of Iowa’s affinity for 12-personnel.
Brandon Smith ($5,100) – Smith is the No. 2 pass catcher in the offense. He currently has 19 targets, averaging 6.3 per game. However, his 89 total receiving yards leave much to be desired. He is a low-upside possession receiver in this offense.
Sam LaPorta ($3,900) – LaPorta is Iowa’s starting tight end. This team uses a lot of 12-personnel with Shaun Beyer. However, LaPorta is the primary receiver of the two. LaPorta actually leads the team with 23 targets (20.2% share), with Beyer failing to eclipse a 45% route rate in any game this season.
Nico Ragaini ($4,500) – Ragaini is Iowa’s slot receiver. He often leaves the field in 12-personnel and splits time with Tyrone Tracy ($3,800). Both players are part-time players, with Ragaini holding a slight edge in playing time.
CFB DFS Analysis: Minnesota (27.5 Team Total)
Offense – P.J. Fleck is the head coach of Minnesota. Following the departure of Kirk Ciarrocca, Mike Sanford and Matt Simon will function as co-offensive coordinators. Simon called the plays during Minnesota’s victory over Auburn, while Sanford comes from Utah State. Sanford is a pass-first guy. He coached Western Kentucky from 2017-2018 and was fired after two seasons. In their first year, they ranked seventh in pass yards per game. He then moved to Utah State, where he worked with Jordan Love during his horrific season. Despite his history, Minnesota has taken a run-first approach with a 36.7% pass rate. They’re running 72.7 plays per game.
Tanner Morgan ($6,400) – After a breakout 2019 season, Minnesota’s new offensive coaching staff turned Morgan into a pure game manager. Morgan offers no dual-threat ability, so his 24 pass attempts per game give him almost no upside. Morgan still averages 200 yards passing on the back of Rashod Bateman, making him a contrarian consideration in tournaments.
Mohamed Ibrahim ($10,500) – Playing college football’s most voluminous role, Ibrahim currently averages 34.7 touches per game. He has 98 carries through three games, with another six targets through the air. Ibrahim also averages an absurd 191 rushing yards per game, making him a near must-play on short slates.
Rashod Bateman ($7,700) – Despite Minnesota’s low-volume pass attack, 49.3% of the pass attempts have been funneled to Bateman. Bateman currently averaged 101 receiving yards on 11 targets per game. He offers immense leverage off of Ibrahim, considering both are difficult to play together at elevated salaries.
Chris Autman-Bell ($4,200) – Minnesota’s No. 2 receiver, Autman-Bell has just nine total targets this season. Somehow he racked up an efficient 162 receiving yards on this volume, but his role makes him a pure dart throw. No other receiver has more than six targets this year.
CFB DFS Matchup: Florida Atlantic vs Florida International
Florida Atlantic CFB DFS Picks (25 Team Total)
Offense – Florida Atlantic hired retread head coach Willie Taggart after his failed tenure at Florida State. Taggart actually promoted from within the FAU staff and made Clint Trickett the co-offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach with Drew Mehringer. Mehringer coached wide receivers for Texas last year, while coordinating the pass game. So far this year, FAU is running 66.2 plays per game with a 37.7% pass rate. The offense has struggled mightily, but the team is still 3-0.
Javion Posey ($5,000) – Posey took over for starter Nick Tronti ($5,700) late in last week’s game. These players are polar opposites. Posey is a dual threat who went 0-for-1 passing in last week’s game. However, he turned in 60 total rushing yards on nine carries with a score. Tronti was benched after throwing 163 yards on 39 pass attempts. He only completed 19 attempts for a 48.7 completion percentage. Tronti only has 490 passing yards in four games. Posey is expected to draw the start here.
Malcolm Davidson ($5,900) – This backfield had been a four-man rotation, but McCammon went down for the year with an injury. Willie Taggart said he expects Davidson to return this week. He led the backfield in Week 3 when B.J. Emmons was out. He is still the teams leading rusher despite only handling 26 attempts.
B.J. Emmons ($4,000) – Emmons will likely function as the 1B running back for Florida Atlantic. He led the backfield in carries last week with 14. When Davidson and Emmons were both active in Week 1, they both received four carries.
James Charles ($3,300) –  Charles will also play a role in this backfield. He led in touches in Week 1 but was out-snapped by Emmons 44-20 last week. Emmons is tentatively the best price-adjusted play in an extremely volatile situation.
T.J. Chase ($4,800) – Chase leads this team with 22 targets (26.2% share). He has at least five targets in three straight games but still only averages 41.8 receiving yards per game.
LaJohntay Wester ($3,200) – The wide receivers are also extremely volatile for this team. Wester technically has the second-most targets, but he only ran a route on 45% of dropbacks last week.
Brandon Robinson ($3,100) – Robinson might actually be the top receiver punt play here. He saw three targets last week and ran a route on 72% of dropbacks. Willie Wright ($3,300) and Jordan Merrell ($3,900) both fell below a 50% route rate.
Florida International CFB DFS Picks (15.5 Team Total)
Offense – Butch Davis coaches Florida International and has done so since 2017. Rich Skrosky has coordinated the offensive line for that same length of time. Last year FIU ran 67.6 plays per game (99th) and passed 40.5% of the time (95th). Not much has changed for FIU. They’re running 63 plays per game with a 40.5% pass rate this year.
Stone Norton ($4,900) – Norton split time with Max Bortenschlager in Florida International’s most recent game. Norton is atop the depth chart, but his least is as short as they come. Last game, he completed five of 14 passes for 66 total yards. Bortenschlager hasn’t been much better, completing of 33.3% of his passes to date. Making matters worse, Norton already has -46 rushing yards this year. None of the quarterbacks deserve consideration
D’Vonte Price ($6,300) – Price leads FIU’s backfield with 38 opportunities. He previously split the backfield with Shaun Peterson. However, Peterson went down for the year with a torn ACL. On the ground, Price actually averages 101 rushing yards per game. However, this situation remains volatile after he totaled just 43 yards against Jacksonville State. Without Peterson, Lexington Joseph ($3,700) may seize more work, but he is still second on the depth chart behind Price.
JJ Holloman ($3,400) – Leading receiver Holloman missed last week’s game, but reappeared on the team’s depth chart ahead of Week 11. Holloman still leads the team with 12 targets (24%), but he only has 25 total receiving yards.
Bryce Singleton ($4,600) – Singleton is the other receiver seeing significant volume. He has 11 total targets this year (3.7 per game) and only 90 total receiving yards.
Nate Jefferson ($3,700) – Jefferson operates as the WR3 but still runs a route on 86% of dropbacks. He received six targets without Holloman, but he only had two total targets in the two previous games with Holloman active.
Find The Best Betting Odds All In One Place
Odds shopping is the best way to make sure you’re getting bang for your betting dollars. Please enjoy our new FREE website that shows you what each sports betting odds are in real time. You can sign up, track your bets, get notifications when a line moves and see how much money you’re making over time. Check it out right HERE.
CFB DFS Matchup: East Carolina vs Cincinnati
East Carolina CFB DFS Picks (13.5 Team Total)
Offense – Mike Houston enters his second season as East Carolina’s head coach. Donnie Kirkpatrick is his offensive coordinator. Last year, East Carolina threw the ball 50.5% of the time (41st) while running 74.6 plays per game (23rd). So far this year, East Carolina is still running an exciting offense, just with less efficiency. They’re running 77.2 plays per game with a 50.5% pass rate. They also draw their toughest opponent to date in Cincinnati.
Holton Ahlers ($6,700) – Ahlers currently averages 39.6 pass attempts per game for 271 passing yards. Ahlers possesses plenty of dual-threat upside despite his cumulative 56 rushing yards to this point in the season. Last year Ahlers finished with 359 rushing yards. Cincinnati has already held some of the top quarterback in the conference in check (Clayton Tune and Shane Buechele). Brady White did manage over 300 passing yards.
Rahjai Harris ($6,900) – Harris continues to lead East Carolina in rushing with 78.8 yards per game. He also has five targets as a receiver but cedes some of that work to Keaton Mitchell ($3,400) in negative game scripts. Darius Pinnix has also battled injuries all season, elevating opportunities for Harris. Pinnix is questionable to play, muddling this situation.
Tyler Snead ($7,100) – Snead narrowly leads East Carolina in targets with 53 (25.7%). He has back-to-back games with 15 and 10 targets, making him the top pass catcher on East Carolina. However, his price is prohibitive in this spot, potentially making him contrarian. Snead plays primarily in the slot.
Blake Proehl ($4,100) – Wide receiver Proehl has 51 targets this year and more receiving yards than Snead (390-to-348). Proehl comes at a significant discount here despite also seeing 14 targets in East Carolina’s most recent game.
CJ Johnson ($4,400) – This receiver Johnson started out 2020 slowly, but he has seen 7 and 10 target in back-to-back games. Johnson averages 6.8 targets in his last four game, but he still is more expensive that Proehl. East Carolina’s receiver prices are still a bit curious.
Audie Omotosho ($3,500) – Fourth receiver Omotosho runs a route on 62% of dropbacks this year. Omotosho brings more volatility than his counterparts, but he still averages 4.3 targets per game over his last four contests.
Cincinnati CFB DFS Picks (41 Team Total)
Offense – Luke Fickell is still the head coach for Cincinnati, with Mike Denbrock as his offensive coordinator. Cincinnati returns four starters on the offensive line on a team that ranked among the run-heaviest last year. Cincinnati dealt with injuries last year, so a couple of these guys started out of necessity. They also added Michigan transfer James Hudson, who sat out last year. He will play left tackle and should help. Cincinnati’s best matchup comes against an atrocious East Carolina run defense. Cincinnati currently runs 67.2 plays per game with a 42% pass rate.
Desmond Ridder ($9,700) – Living off pure efficiency, Ridder currently averages 193 passing yards per game on 25.3 pass attempts. That hasn’t really mattered much with Ridder soaking up immense rushing production. Ridder already has 394 rushing yards and eight rushing scores after rushing for only five all last year. These touchdowns have hurt Gerrid Doaks and elevated Ridder. Still, this slate lacks viable quarterbacks, making Ridder the clear top option.
Gerrid Doaks ($7,900) – Despite losing touchdowns to Ridder, Doaks continues to function as Cincinnati’s primary ball carries with 17.8 opportunities per game. Doaks also averages 85.2 rushing yards, while seeing two targets per game through the air. He sits only behind Ibrahim on the running back pecking order on this slate.
Alec Pierce ($6,100) – The oft-injured Pierce expects to suit up for this game, but his involvement is to be decided. Fickell hinted at a potential snap count for Pierce, potentially limiting value in an already low-volume pass attack. When healthy, Pierce is the clear top receiver in the offense.
Michael Young ($5,300) – Without Pierce for large stretches of the season, Notre Dame transfer Young has emerged as Cincinnati’s top receiver. He currently leads the team with 29 targets, but that has only led to 31.8 receiving yards per game. Jayshon Jackson ($4,000) plays a similar role behind him with four targets per game and 35.3 receiving yards. All of these Cincinnati receivers will have big games, but predicting when they occur is difficult in this run-focused offense.
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Looking for more CFB DFS picks content? We have loads of CFB DFS Picks articles, data, cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo CFB home page. Just click HERE.
