Matt Gajewski’s new CFB DFS Picks article comes out every Friday afternoon for your college football daily fantasy needs on DraftKings and more! And don’t forget to check out the College Football DFS and betting show every Saturday at 10 AM ET.
Main CFB DFS Slate: DraftKings Breakdown
Kansas vs West Virginia
CFB DFS Analysis: Kansas (14.5 Team Total)
Offense – Les Miles is Kansas’ head coach and Bren Dearmon is the offensive coordinator. So far this season, Kansas is running 76 plays per game, with a 46.9% pass rate. Last year, they passed 52.2% of the time (34th) and ran 76 plays per game (26th). They’re struggling with quarterback continuity and overall efficiency, but this Kansas offense is still playing fast. This puts some of the tertiary players in play as one-offs. The offensive line has been absolutely atrocious and ranks 75th, per PFF, despite returning three starters.
Miles Kendrick ($4,800) – Kendrick named the starter for Kansas this weekend. Kansas’ offensive line concerns, paired with Kendrick’s lack of mobility look like a major problem for Kansas. Kansas has rotated quarterbacks constantly, so the Kansas quarterback averages 30.7 pass attempts per game. However, they’ve only thrown for 440 total yards through three games.
in a frustrating time share with Velton Gardner ($4,600). Williams averages 14.3 touches per game to Gardner’s 12.7, but both are hovering at 60 rushing yards per game. Neither back is very involved in the pass game so far this year, but Williams has back-to-back seasons with 33 and 27 receptions. Williams is the superior target in a lackluster situation.
Takulve Williams ($3,800) – Williams plays the slot for Kansas and averages 8.0 targets per game. However, he only has 80 total receiving yards through three games. Most of the Kansas receivers are low upside options, given the state of their offense.
Andrew Parchment ($4,100) – Last year’s leading receiver with 65 catches for 831 yards, Parchment has just 20 targets and 75 total receiving yards through three games with Kansas.
Kwamie Lassiter ($4,500) – Lassiter’s 171 receiver yards equate to 39% of Kansas passing yardage as a whole. Lassiter plays primarily on the outside opposite Parchment, but he dabbles in the slot as well. All three of these receivers are averaging a route on at least 86% of Kansas’ drop backs.
Stephon Robinson ($3,500) – Stephon Robinson has gotten banged up in both of his games this year. He finished second on Kansas with 45 catches for 727 yards last year.
CFB DFS Analysis: West Virginia (37 Team Total)
Offense – West Virginia retains Neal Brown as head coach for his second season. They moved former offensive coordinator Matt Moore to assistant head coach, while bringing in former Penn State pass game coordinator Gerad Parker to coordinate the offense. Last year, West Virginia ran 67.4 plays per game (103rd) and passed 58.3% of the time (sixth). This year, they’ve run 83.5 plays per game with a 51.5% pass rate. West Virginia returns three of five starting offensive linemen. They’re replacing both tackle positions, but they have some continuity here. The Mountaineers predictably demolished Eastern Kentucky in their debut, but they ran 86 plays and passed 41% of the time in that game. In their next two games against Oklahoma State and Baylor, they ran 84 and 85 plays while passing 50% and 55% of the time.
Jarret Doege ($7,500) – A promising long-term starter at the quarterback position, Jarret Doege has averaged 35 pass attempts and 241.3 passing yards through three games. Doege offers nothing on the ground and currently sits at -28 rushing yards. Negative rushing totals remain a concern for Doege after taking seven sacks to open the year. Doege will have 300-yard passing games, but those generally come in competitive games. West Virginia prefers a to ride the run when playing with a comfortable lead.
Leddie Brown ($8,200) – After a throwaway ten carry game in the opener, Leddie Brown handled 26 and 27 carries in back-to-back games. Brown leads the slate with 23.3 touches per game and is involved in the pass game with seven total targets. Kansas currently allows 227.7 rushing yards per game to their opposition. Brown is a solid play up top.
Sam James ($5,900) – Sam James is the go-to receiver for West Virginia and he paces the team with 26 targets (23.6%). James is the starting Z-receiver in this offense and the top DFS target in the offense. James easily led the team in receiving las year with 69 catches for 677 yards. To start 2020, he ranks second with 160 receiving yards.
Winston Wright ($5,000) – Winston Wright plays the versatile H-receiver that often functions from the slot. He ranks second on the team with 21 targets (19.1%) and paces the team with 180 receiving yards.
Bryce Ford-Wheaton ($4,400) – Ford is the WR3 after running a route on 75% of Doege’s drop backs. Ford plays the x-receiver in this offense. He currently holds a 15.6% target share. He is one of the team’s top big-play threats.
TJ Simmons ($4,600) – TJ Simmons functions primarily in the slot for West Virginia. He missed Week 1 with a suspension but saw his route rate jump from 45% to 69% in West Virginia’s most recent game. Still, Simmons has just seven targets through two games. Last year, he ranked third on the team in receiving last year, with 455 yards.
Clemson vs Georgia Tech
CFB DFS Analysis: Clemson (46 Team Total)
Dabo Swinney is the head coach and Tony Elliott is the offensive coordinator. Clemson lives off efficiency, but they’ve run 74.5 plays per game, with a 43% pass rate to start the year. They ran 73.4 plays per game last year (40th) and passed 48.6% of the time (60th). Clemson just handled Miami, and now face a young/rebuilt Georgia Tech team. They will be tasked with containing elite pass rusher Jordan Domineck, who has 17 pressures through four game.
Trevor Lawrence ($9,000) – The most expensive player on the slate, Trevor Lawrence sits at $9,000. Cost prohibitive, Lawrence averages 30 pass attempts per game and 287.5 yards. Lawrence delivers with efficiency, completing 72.4% of his passes for 9.8 yards per attempt. Lawrence offers a little bit on the ground with 48 total rushing yards on the year. He already eclipsed 300 passing yards twice this year and has at least 292 passing yards in every game except Citadel. Lawrence is a stacking option.
Travis Etienne ($8,600) – Travis Etienne currently averages 19.5 opportunities per game after seeing a massive 13-target game in Clemson’s showdown against Miami. A complete back, Etienne’s 22 targets rank second on this Clemson team. He also averages 98.3 rushing yards per game. With Georgia Tech allowing 189.2 rushing yards per game, Etienne is a standout play.
Frank Ladson ($4,600) – With Joseph Ngata dealing with an abdominal strain, Frank Ladson stepped up to handle seven and five targets in Clemson’s last two games. He continues to play a full-time role in the offense, but Ngata’s potential return muddies these waters.
Cornell Powell ($3,500) – Cornell Powell remains a full-time player in Clemson’s offense, but he has just 12 total targets on the year. He saw five targets in his most recent contest, but that is his season high. Similar to Ladson, Ngata’s return could depress playing time moving forward.
Joseph Ngata ($4,000) – Dealing with an abdominal strain, Joseph Ngata reportedly practiced every day this week. Ngata entered the season as a clear starter for Clemson, but he hasn’t played a full complement of snaps since Clemson’s debut. It is difficult to project his role moving forward.
CFB DFS Analysis: Georgia Tech (18.5 Team Total)
Offense – Geoff Collins is the head coach of Georgia Tech after transitioning away from the triple option last year. Dave Patenaude is back after arguably the toughest job in college football. He was tasked with taking a triple option roster and molding it into a traditional offense. George Tech showed major improvements last week in this regard. Last year, Georgia Tech threw the ball 40.3% of the time (102nd) and ran 63.0 plays per game (130th), which ranked dead last in football. So far this season, Georgia Tech is running 74.5 plays per game with a 43% pass rate. Their offensive line has held up and looks to be a strength moving forward. Their personnel consist of a Vanderbilt transfer at right tackle, who made 32 starts in his career in Devin Cochran. Right guard is a Tennessee transfer in Ryan Johnson, who started 19 games. Center Kenny Cooper got hurt last year, but he started 19 games in his career at Georgia Tech. Left guard is Jack DeFoor, who started nine games last year. Left tackle Zach Quinney started 21 games in his career. We should continue to see improvements from this Georgia Tech team this year.
Jeff Sims ($5,100) – A freshman revelation for Georgia Tech, Sims is too cheap after DraftKings despite a tough matchup. Sims currently averages 30 pass attempts per game for 236 yards. Gibbs is only completing 55% of his passes, but he still averages 7.9 yards per attempt. More importantly, Sims provides dual threat ability. Sims already has 251 yards through four games this season. While the matchup is tough, Sims looks semi-viable as a complete punt at the quarterback position.
Jahmyr Gibbs ($5,400) – The 5-11, 201-pound crown jewel of Georgia Tech’s recruiting class, Jahmyr Gibbs has excelled to begin his freshman season. He is a four-star prospect and the eighth-best running back in this class. With Jordan Mason injured, Gibbs has handled at least 17 touches in each of his last three appearances. Active as a pass catcher, Gibbs has 13 targets in three games potentially putting him in play as a massive underdog against the Tigers.
Jalen Camp ($3,600) – The three wide receiver set looks set for Georgia Tech, with Jalen Camp leading the way. Somehow the cheapest of the bunch, Camp leads Georgia Tech with 22 targets (19.5%). However, Camp still averages just 5.5 targets per game with 35.5 receiving yards. None of the Tech receivers look like strong plays against Clemson.
Malachi Carter ($4,400) – Splitting time with Adonicas Sanders to start the season, Malachi Carter has worked his way into a full-time role for Georgia Tech. Second on the team in targets (21), Carter leads the team with 209 receiving yards.
Ahmarean Brown ($3,700) – After a solid freshman breakout, Ahmarean Brown is lightly used through three games. Brown only has 14 targets, but he continues to run route on 70+% of drop backs for Georgia Tech. Brown is Georgia Tech’s primary slot receiver.
Auburn vs South Carolina
CFB DFS Analysis: Auburn (27.5 Team Total)
Offense – Gus Malzahn remains head coach of Auburn, but he named Chad Morris their new offensive coordinator. Morris coached Arkansas the last two season with limited success. Under Morris, Arkansas ran 65.7 plays per game (119th) and passed 53.9% of the time (24th). This inefficient play has continued with Auburn running 65.3 plays per game and passing 52.6% of the time. However, Auburn’s play volume jumped to 72 last week against Arkansas. This ream struggled with play volume against Kentucky and Georgia to start the season, but perhaps they can move a little faster in better matchups. Auburn essentially replaces their entire offensive line and returns just one player with any starting experience. With these replacements, the Tigers rank 56th in pass blocking to start the year per PFF.
Bo Nix ($6,200) – One of the lowest upside quarterbacks in the country, Bo Nix finds himself trapped in a slow Auburn offense. Despite the slow tempo, Auburn is fairly pass heavy. Nix averages 32 attempts per game, but just 199 passing yards. Inefficient as a passer, Nix at least offers some dual threat ability with 72 yards on the ground through three games. Bo Nix has just two career games above 300 passing yards and 11 below 200 yards. He has played in 16 career games.
Tank Bigsby ($6,200) – A four-star true freshman, Tank Bigsby entered 2020 as the No.4 overall back in the recruiting class. With DJ Williams and Shaun Shivers both landing injuries early in the year, Bigsby has already found significant playing time. Bigsby has at least 15 touches in each of Auburn’s last two games, including 24 against Arkansas last week. He racked up 146 rushing yards on just 20 carries and out-carried D.J. Williams ($4,000) 20-8. This will remain a committee with Williams and Shivers also factoring in, but Bigsby is the favorite to lead this backfield moving forward. He is a fine DFS target.
Seth Williams ($5,800) – Auburn’s top wide out, Williams has at least nine targets in every game this season. Williams also leads this team in receiving with 216 yards through three games. Last year, he led the Tigers with 59 catches and 830 yards on 101 targets. Williams stands 6-3, 211-pounds and ran a verified 4.53 40-yard dash coming out of high school. He is a future day two pick in the NFL Draft.
Anthony Schwartz ($5,500) – With Eli Stove missing the last two weeks, Anthony Schwartz stepped up for target counts of 14 and 13. Possessing Olympic-style speed, Schwartz ran a verified 4.34 40-yard dash coming out of high school. Schwartz runs as Auburn’s primary slot receiver, but Auburn rotates players and personnel a lot. With targets condensed between Williams and Schwartz, both make sense in DFS.
Eli Stove ($4,200) – Mentioned above, Eli Stove missed last week’s game with an injury. Stove was also described as “hopeful” last week and subsequently missed the game. Malzahn used the same language this week to describe Stove.
CFB DFS Analysis: South Carolina (24 Team Total)
Offense – Will Muschamp is head coach of South Carolina, and he named Mike Bobo his offensive coordinator this offseason. Bobo coached at Colorado State last year. Their offense ran 72.5 plays per game (52nd) and passed 55% of the time (20th). South Carolina has played competitive football to start the year. They narrowly lost to Tennessee (31-27) and kept it somewhat close against Florida (38-24), before demolishing Vanderbilt. Even losing a couple game, this team averages 76.7 plays per game with a 52.2% pass rate. This number climbs near 60% when South Carolina trails. This offensive line is brutal and ranks 65th out of 76 teams in pass blocking, per PFF.
Colin Hill ($6,500) – Semi-efficient to start he year, Colin Hill currently completes 62.7% of his passes for 6.3 yards per attempt. Playing behind a horrific offensive line, Hill averages 36.7 pass attempts per game and 232.7 passing yards. With this volume, Hill will occasionally hit the 300-yard passing bonus. However, some of his upside is reduced by negative rushing total. Sitting with -15 rushing yards on the season, Hill looks like an outside consideration in this tilt against Auburn.
Kevin Harris ($7,700) – Now with two games under his belt as South Carolina’s complete bell-cow back, Kevin has touch counts of 26 and 27 in back-to-back games. Game script projects to work against Harris here, but the 5-10, 225-pound true sophomore plays a crucial role in the pass game. With ten targets in his past two games, Harris is game script independent and playable on this slate.
Shi Smith ($7,100) – After recording a 42% target share through two weeks, Shi Smith saw only five targets in Week 3. Smith still holds a 37% target share on the season, while averaging 90.3 receiving yards per game. Smith primarily runs out of the slot and still deserves consideration as one of the most-targeted receivers on the slate.
Nick Muse ($3,700) – Tight end Nick Muse has been targeted second-most on this team (16). Muse has been relatively efficient, with 52 receiving yards per game on a fraction of Smith’s volume. Still, this offense runs entirely through Harris and Smith.
Xavier Legette ($3,700) – Legette is the actual WR2 in this offense, with Josh Vann ($3,000) running as the WR3. Neither sees consistent target volume. Vann has run a route on at least 64% of South Carolina drop backs the last two weeks.
Pittsburgh vs. Miami
CFB DFS Analysis: Pittsburgh (17 Team Total)
Offense – Pat Narduzzi is the head coach of Pitt, with Mark Whipple entering his second season as offensive coordinator. Pitt still runs their up-tempo, pass-friendly offense. So far this year, they’ve averaged 82.8 plays per game, with a 51.4% pass rate. They now get almost all of their offensive line back, which could help the run game. This unit has played elite football to start the year, ranking 25th in pass blocking. However, Miami has some absolutely studs on the edge in Quincy Roche and Jaelen Phillips, who recorded 15 and 12 QB pressures so far this year.
Kenny Pickett ($6,600) – Kenny Pickett got banged up in last week’s loss, but should play in this game. One of the premier deep ball throwers in the country, Pickett currently completes 60% of his passes for 7.7 yards per attempt. He also averages 36.4 pass attempts per game, with 282 yards. A decent dual threat, Pickett’s rushing totals also sit at 119 yards this year. Miami’s defense is strong, but Pickett’s overall volume keeps him in consideration as a stacking option this week.
Vincent Davis ($4,900) – Pitt’s lead back to start the year, Vincent Davis has touch counts of 20, 19, 19, and 20. However, Davis averages 3.3 yards per carry and could find himself pushed for carries in the near future. Until then, he is an outside consideration based on volume alone. The matchup isn’t ideal against a strong Miami front seven.
AJ Davis ($3,100) and Daniel Carter ($3,000) continue to deal with injuries thinning the running back room.
Israel Abanikanda ($3,500) – Abanikanda is a talented freshman back, who likely plays a larger role moving forward. Pitt moved Abanikanda to RB2 on the depth chart over AJ Davis and Daniel Carter. Both of whom are injured. Narduzzi said he wanted to get Abanikanda about 20 snaps last week, but he only managed 13. For the sake of comparison, Davis played 77. Abanikanda is just a name to monitor with Davis’ struggles.
Jordan Addison ($5,500) – Pittsburgh’s top wide receiver, Jordan Addison has at least nine targets in every healthy game. Addison plays the slot and currently averages 58.6 receiving yards per game. The true freshman is locked in as Pickett’s top stacking option.
Taysir Mack ($5,300) – Missing Pitt’s first two games with an injury, Taysir Mack has now recorded back-to-back 10-target games. Mack eclipsed 100 targets last year and should play a voluminous role within the offense when healthy. He is a solid price-adjusted target here.
Shocky Jacques-Louis ($3,300) – While Jacques-Louis ranks fourth on this team in targets (19), he moved out of his time share with DJ Turner ($4,500). While Turner has out-targeted Jacques-Louis to start the season, Turner only ran a route on 35% of Pickett’s drop backs. Conversely, Jacques-Louis posted a 90% route rate. Jacques-Louis also out-targeted Turner 4-2 in Pitt’s most recent game.
DJ Turner ($4,500) – Now a part-time player, Turner’s 35% route rate will not provide sustainable fantasy value in Pitt’s offense.
CFB DFS Analysis: Miami (30.5 Team Total)
Offense – Manny Diaz turned to Rhett Lashlee to take over the Hurricanes’ offense. Last year, Lashlee coordinated an SMU offense that ran 80.9 plays per game (third) and passed 49.24% of the time (51st). This allowed them to rank fifth in points per game (41.8). However, Miami’s offense has played slower than expected to start 2020. They’re only averaging 71.2 plays per game, with a 49.5% pass rate. This play volume remains depressed after an inefficient outing against Clemson. Miami’s offensive line also looks improved after ranking 109th in run blocking and 110th in pass blocking last year, Miami now sits at 24th in pass blocking but 60th in run blocking. This team returned all five starters and also added Houston Cougars transfer Jarrid Williams, who started 19 games in his career at Houston. Florida Gators transfer Issiah Walker also joined the program.
D’Eriq King ($8,100) – To kick off his first full season of action as Miami’s signal caller, D’Eriq King has completed 61.2% of his passes for 7.1 yards per attempt. When we last saw D’Eriq King as a full-time starter in 2018, he passed for 2,982 yards, 36 touchdowns, and only six interceptions. He also posted back-to-back season, completing at least 63.5% of his passes in 2017 and 2018. This doesn’t even take into consideration Kings ridiculous rushing upside. King posted 674 rushing yards in 2018 and he posted another 312 in just four games last year. He absolutely deserves his ridiculous salary here.
Cam’Ron Harris ($7,400) – An under-utilized position in Miami’s offense, Cam’ron Harris averages just 14.3 opportunities per game. With D’Eriq King stealing rushing attempts, Harris saw only nine touches in Miami’s most recent game.
Impressive true freshman running backs Donald Chaney and Jaylan Knighton will push for work this year. Chaney is a four-star recruit and the number 11 running back in the nation in the 2020 recruiting class. He is listed at 5-10, 210-pounds.
Knighton is another incoming freshman, four-star prospect, and the number ten running back in the 2020 recruiting class. He is listed at 5-10, 190-pounds. These two freshmen are listed with an OR on the depth chart and should both see a bit of action.
Brevin Jordan ($5,000) – Brevin Jordan missed time late in Miami’s game against Clemson with a shoulder injury. He said he was fine, but this is a situation to monitor. Jordan has a 63% route rate and ranks second on the team with 23 targets (18.1%). The 6-3, 245-pound tight end finished as Miami’s second-leading receiver with 495 yards on 35 catches on 43 targets.
Dee Wiggins ($4,000) – Dee Wiggins continues to run more routes than any other Miami receiver. His 84% route rate paces the team, while his 18 total targets rank fourth. Wiggins stands 6-3, 195-pounds, but should have better games in the future. He led Miami with seven targets against Clemson.
Mike Harley ($5,000) – Mike Harley primarily plays the slot for Miami. After splitting time to start the year, Harley’s route rate rose to 80% last week. He currently paces the team with 26 targets, but his 31.8 receiving yards per game leave much to be desired. Last year, he finished as the team’s third-leading receiver with 485 yards on 38 catches. Harley stands 5-11, 180-pounds and is a low-upside option.
Will Mallory ($3,000) – Miami runs a decent amount of 12-personnel and Will Mallory is the additional tight end in those formations. Mallory has a 30% route rate this season and 4 targets. He finished as the Hurricanes’ sixth-leading receiver with 293 yards on 16 catches on 29 targets. Mallory stands 6-5, 245-pounds and is a name to monitor with rumors of a Brevin Jordan injury.
Kentucky vs Tennessee
CFB DFS Analysis: Kentucky (20.5 Team Total)
Offense – Mark Stoops is the head coach of Kentucky, with Eddie Gran in place as the offensive coordinator. Last year, Kentucky on threw 33.3% of the time, but they were using converted wide receiver Lynn Bowden at quarterback. They ran 65.8 plays per game (118th). So far this season, Kentucky is running 70.3 plays per game with a 39.3% pass rate. Kentucky is built for the run after returning four starting offensive linemen for a group that ranked second in the entire country in yards per carry. This team is built to run the ball, but they also rank 12th in pass blocking. In their first game they ran 80 plays and passed 50% of the time. This was influenced by negative game script, but it is an approach they will take at times. Tennessee is not that.
Terry Wilson ($6,700) – Largely inefficient to start the year, Terry Wilson is completing just 61.3% of his passes for 6.2 yards per attempt. On top of his inefficiency, he is only averaging 25 attempts per game with 154 passing yards. Wilson does add a lot of rushing production with his legs and will hit the 100-yard bonus at times. He has 221 yards this year, but upside is a fraction of the other signal callers on this slate.
Chris Rodriguez ($5,100) – Chris Rodriguez handled extra work last week with Kavosiey Smokie missing the game due to a rib injury. In the game Asim Rose also got banged up, leading to additional opportunities for Rodriguez. This is a three-man committee when all are healthy, but the statuses of Smoke and Rose have yet to be updated. When they’re all healthy, none are much of a consideration.
Josh Ali ($5,100) – Josh Ali currently leads Kentucky with a 33.3% target share and 24 total targets. This is a low-volume passing attack, but Ali still averages 69.3 yards per game. He will man the slot for Kentucky.
Allen Dailey ($3,700) – Allen Dailey has just six targets this year. 60% route rate actually finished second on the team. None of them are primary considerations. Both Dailey and Harris were part time players to begin the year, but Kentucky’s wide receiver rotation has narrowed. Both ran a route on at least 72% of drop backs last week.
DeMarkus Harris ($3,000) – DeMarkus Harris ranks second on Kentucky with 13 total targets (18.1%).
Kentucky plays excellent defense. Last year, they ranked No.2 in pass defense and No.14 in pass defense. They return eight starters this year and add promising transfer Kelvin Joseph from LSU. Joseph sat out last year due to transfer regulations.
CFB DFS Analysis: Tennessee (25 Team Total)
Offense – Jeremy Pruitt is head coach of Tennessee and Jim Chaney returns for his second season as offensive coordinator. Last year, under Chaney, Tennessee ran 65.3 plays per game (123rd) and passed 46.2% of the time (78th). Tennessee is a tough team to analyze after playing South Carolina close in Week 1 (31-27), demolishing Missouri in Week 2, and losing by 23 to Georgia in Week 3. They’re currently running 70.3 plays per game, with a 47.4% pass rate. This pass rate jumped significantly after negative game script against Georgia. Tennessee looked to have one of the top offensive lines in the country, returning four full-time starters and earning a transfer from former 5-star prospect Cade Mays. However, Mays, Wanya Morris, and Darnell Wright have been absolutely brutal. None grade above a 46.3 on PFF and all have at least 4 pressures allowed.
Jarrett Guarantano ($6,100) – A career game-manager, Jarrett Guarantano is currently completing 62.2% of his passes for 7.4 yards per attempt. Already playing in Tennessee’s low volume attack, he averages just 29.7 pass attempts per game, with 221.3 passing yards. Also a negative cumulative rusher, Gaurantano isn’t an option in this poor game environment.
Ty Chandler ($4,200) and Eric Gray ($6,000) have received the exact same volume this season, but Gray enters the week significantly more expensive. Chandler currently holds a 40-36 edge in carries, while Gray holds a 10-6 edge in targets. While neither looks enticing against Kentucky’s elite defense, Chandler looks like the superior option if forced to pick.
A major target last week, Ty Chandler and Eric Gray ($6,000) look far less enticing this week and near-two touchdown underdogs to Georgia’s elite run defense. So far, the Bulldogs allow just 58 rushing yards per game. Chandler is the cheaper back and has best Gray 36-30 in opportunities. Still, neither looks like a strong play.
Josh Palmer ($6,500) – Josh Palmer currently leads Tennessee with 20 targets (24.1%). He also averages 75.7 receiving yards per game as Tennessee primary deep threat. Normally a consideration, price renders Palmer a contrarian dart throw in Tennessee’s inept passing attack.
Ramel Keyton ($3,600) – Still running the second-most routes for this Tennessee team, Ramel Keyton has been one of the most inefficient targets in the country. Keyton continues to run route on 71% of Guarantano drop backs (same as Palmer), but he’s caught just four of 11 targets to open the season. Both Keyton and Palmer play outside, with Brandon Johnson and Jalin Hyatt rotating in the slot.
Louisville vs Notre Dame
CFB DFS Analysis: Louisville (23 Team Total)
Offense – Scott Satterfield enters his second season as head coach, along with offensive coordinator Dwayne Ledford. So far this year, they’ve run 75.8 plays per game with a 45.4% pass rate. They are a bit pass heavy after throwing just 37.7% of the time last year and running 70.9 plays per game. This is influenced by their three-straight losses to ACC competition. Unfortunately, Notre Dame’s elite pass rush ranks 18th and currently possesses a solid 8.5% sack rate.
Micale Cunningham ($7,100) – Never the most efficient player, Malik Cunningham lives on efficiency. He has a career 60.7 completion percentage, but he averages 9.5 yards per pass attempt. Because Louisville has struggled, Cunningham’s pass attempts continue to rise. Currently, Cunningham averages 31.3 pass attempts per game and 246.5 passing yards. Cunningham also provides elite dual threat ability, rushing for 162 yards so far this year. However, Cunningham also struggles with pocket awareness, taking 16 sacks. These sacks reduce his cumulative rushing total to 84 yards on the year. The matchup against Notre Dame is tough, but Cunningham possesses the volume and tools for a contrarian big game.
Javian Hawkins ($6,200) – One of the few bell-cows in college football, Javian Hawkins has at least 14 touches in every game and three games with 18+ carries. Hawkins offers almost nothing in the pass game, with six total targets in four games. He also plays for a Louisville game projected to trail. However, Louisville lost their last three games and Hawkins still carried 65 times in that span.
Hawkins has absurd carry counts on 18 and 27 in his first two games, handling 59% of the carries for Louisville. Hawkins has yet to find any involvement in the pass game with just 1 target. Louisville played in negative game script too (47-34 Miami game).
Tutu Atwell ($6,700) – Atwell primarily plays the slot for Louisville, but he is locked in as the team’s top pass catcher. Through four game, Atwell has a 34.8% target share on 40 total targets. He also averages 70.3 receiving yards per game and will remain a strong stacking option whenever he takes the field.
Dez Fitzpatrick ($4,900) – Dez Fitzpatrick is the clear WR2 in Louisville’s offense. Fitzpatrick has 25 targets (21.7%) and 234 receiving yards. For the sake of comparison, Atwell has 281 receiving yards this season. Providing big play ability, Fitzpatrick is in play.
Justin Marshall ($3,200) – Listed as a starter, Justin Marshall continues to split time with Braden Smith ($3,800). For the first time all season, Smith actually participated in more routes than Marshall. These two is ignorable.
CFB DFS Analysis: Notre Dame (39.5 Team Total)
Offense – To start the year, Notre Dame has run 69.7 plays per game with a 38.3% pass rate. That will happen when facing Duke, USF, and Florida State. They returned all five offensive line starters and it shows so far. New offensive coordinator Tommy Rees plays faster than Notre Dame of old, but two cupcake opponents have allowed the Irish to slow down and pound the run. Rees has coached QB’s with Notre Dame since 2017 and he notably developed former 3* Ian Book in to the suitable starter he is today. Notre Dame ran 69.5 plays per game last year (78th) and passed 47.6% of the time. In competitive games, these number should rise. Notre Dame ranks 6th in pass blocking.
Ian Book ($7,900) – Book has a career completion percentage of 63.4% and he currently holds a 62.7% completion percentage this year. Book is also averaging 8.1 yards per attempt, which is slightly better than his career 7.8 mark.
Book is currently completing 62% of his passes for 8.1 yards per attempt. However, Notre Dame continues to lean on the run. He averages only 25 pass attempts per game. Book offers a little as a dual threat with 17.5 yards per game on the ground.
Kyren Williams ($7,200) – Kyren Williams is a 5-9, 195-pound sophomore revelation for Notre Dame. Williams has 61 opportunities through three games this year, including 24 in Notre Dame’s most recent game. These numbers likely come in higher if not for an absolute blow out of USF in Notre Dame’s second game. Williams averages 120.3 rushing yards and 38 receiving yards each game this year. With Louisville allowed over 150 rushing yards per game, Williams looks like one of the top options on this slate.
Javon McKinley ($5,500) – Javon McKinley has ten total targets through a pair of games played. However, McKinley’s route rate jumped from 50% to 93% in Notre Dame’s most recent affair with Florida State. When Notre Dame finds themselves in more competitive games, McKinley should be the primary beneficiary.
Braden Lenzy ($4,500) – Similar to McKinley, Braden Lenzy missed Notre Dame’s first game. From there, he saw his route rate jump from 35% to 79% in Notre Dame’s most recent game. Lenzy is one of Notre Dame’s more dynamic athletes. In addition to his 11 receptions for 254 yards last year, Lenzy also handled 13 carries for an additional 200 rushing yards. Both Lenzy and McKinley play primarily on the outside.
Tommy Tremble ($3,200) – Tight end Tommy Tremble leads Notre Dame in targets with 13 (17.8% target share). Like the receivers above, Tremble’s route rate jumped to 64% in Notre Dame’s most recent game.
Bennett Skowronek ($3,500) – Coach Kelly called Bennett Skowronek day-to-day ahead of the Florida State game and Skowronek ended up missing the game. Skowronek was expected to play a major role this year prior to the injury.
UCF vs Memphis
CFB DFS Analysis: UCF (38 Team Total)
Josh Heupel is the head coach of Central Florida. So, expect much of the same from this program. They ran 78.8 plays per game last year (6th) and passed 46.9% of the time (72nd). UCF is replacing some production on their offensive line, but they return four dudes who started at least one game in the past. They also added a solid grad transfer in Marcus Tatum to help here. Still, the season experienced an early hiccup with a 34-26 loss to Tulsa. UCF is currently running 89 plays per game, with a 53.2% pass rate. This game against Memphis will feature a multitude of scoring.
Dillon Gabriel ($8,500) – As efficient as they come, Dillon Gabriel averages 9.0 yards per attempt as a career passer. This year, Gabriel has averaged 46.3 pass attempts per game, with 385 passing yards. Gabriel provides some dual threat ability with 59 cumulative rushing yards. More importantly, his passing upside isn’t reduced through sacks. Gabriel has eclipsed 300 passing yards in all three games this year and 400 in two of three.
Otis Anderson ($6,400) – The Knight’s backfield employs a committee, but Otis Anderson benefitted from Greg McCraw and Bentavious Thompson suffering injuries in their last game. This allowed Anderson’s rush attempt total to climb to 17. Anderson currently leads this team with 49 opportunities through three games. Last year, Anderson rushed for 726 yards, while receiving an additional 41 targets in the pass game.
Greg McCrae ($4,500) – Greg McCrae suffered an injury in UCF’s last game, but he projects to return here. McCrae has just 31 carries through three games, but he finished with 529 yards on just 98 attempts last year. He is a decent price-adjusted play, if active.
Bentavious Thompson ($3,400) – Also banged up, Bentavious Thompson reportedly expects to play this weekend. In his first two games, Thompson notched 12 and 10 carries. He also finished with 604 yards on 92 carries in 2019. Thompson is a viable punt in normal circumstances. If McCrae misses the game, Thompson’s value would increase significantly.
Marlon Williams ($7,600) – With Tre Nixon banged up, Marlon Williams has assumed UCF’s WR1 role. Williams plays primarily in the slot and currently averages 15.7 targets per game. The focal point of UCF’s pass heavy offense, Williams has at least 14 targets in every game this season. Also averaging, 129.3 receiving yards per game, Williams is a strong target here.
Jaylon Robinson ($6,400) – An Oklahoma transfer, Robison has emerged as a strong secondary pass catcher for UCF. Robinson currently holds a 21% target share in UCF’s offense, while also averaging 122 receiving yards per game. He also looks like a strong target in this offense.
Jacob Harris ($4,300) – Jacob Harris has replaced Tre Nixon to this point in the season. Harris has back-to-back games with 10 and 6 targets. While inferior to Williams and Robinson as a DFS option, he is a cheap attachment to this high-powered offense in a likely shootout.
Tre Nixon ($4,800) – Expected to finish as Gabriel’s top receiver this season, Nixon reportedly could return for this game. Nixon should immediately usurp Harris and become one of the strongest price-adjusted plays on the Week 7 slate.
CFB DFS Analysis: Memphis (35.5 Team Total)
Offense – Ryan Silverfield is back for his second season as head coach of Memphis. They also have Kevin Johns in his second year as offensive coordinator of the Tigers. Looking at last year’s group, Memphis rushed for 187.5 yards per game (35th) and passed for 290.7 yards per game (19th). Overall, they passed 46.31% of the time (76th) and ran 72.9 plays per game (47th). Memphis returns three offensive line starters in Obinna Eze, Manuel Orona-Lopez, and Dylan Parham. Isaac Ellis also played over 300 snaps for this offense, giving them solid experience up front. So far this year, Memphis averages 82 plays per game with a 50.6% pass rate. Memphis ranks 7th in pass blocking.
Brady White ($8,000) – Generally considered a pocket passer, Brady White actually has 46 rushing yards so far this year. A voluminous passer, White has attempted 39 passes per game, averaging 291.5 yards. Last year, White bested 300-yards passing on six occasions, putting him squarely in play for stacks this week.
Rodrigues Clark ($5,600) – Unlike most college programs, Memphis often utilizes two running back formations. Rodrigues Clark functions as more of a prototypical tailback, similar to Patrick Taylor last year. Clark has touch counts of 20 and 19 in his first two games this year. Highly efficient as a rusher, Clark averages 97.5 rushing yards per game. UCF currently allows 212 rushing yards to opponents this year.
Kylan Watkins ($5,100) – Watkins routes dropped from 68 to 29%, but he still is the pass-catching back in this tandem. Watkins often lines up in the slot, running wide receiver routes. His role remains similar to Antonio Gibson from last year. So far, Watkins has touch counts of 17 and 12 in his first two games. Clark is the superior play of the two, but Watkins lead to a more contrarian build.
Damonte Coxie ($6,100) – Probably the most underpriced player on the entire slate, Damonte Coxie’s $6,100 price tag is laughable. Coxie has back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in Memphis offense. To start 2020, he has 25 targets through two games. Averaging 93.5 receiving yards per game Coxie is one of the strongest plays on the slate.
Sean Dykes ($7,300) – Technically the WR2, tight end Sean Dykes continues to function as a big play threat for Brady White. Dykes currently averages nine targets per game and 108 receiving yards per game. Despite the solid role, Dykes projects for lower ownership with Coxie’s egregious price. He is a solid contrarian pivot.
Calvin Austin ($4,800) – After playing part-time role in Week 1, Calvin Austin’s routes jumped from 50% to 97% at the expense of Watkins. More importantly, Austin’s targets also jumped from five to ten. Another undervalued player in this offense, Austin also looks like a solid target from this pass game.
Tahj Washington ($3,300) – Unlike Austin, Tahj Washington was a part-time player with Memphis employing a variety of personnel packages. Washington has still participated in 60% of White’s drop backs to start the year. Another egregious price tag, Washington will blow up for an occasional big game this year.
Duke vs NC State
CFB DFS Analysis: Duke (27.5 Team Total)
Offense – David Cutcliffe is the head coach of Duke and he will take over play calling again. Cutcliffe hasn’t called plays since the 2007 season, when he coached at Tennessee. Through three weeks, Duke has run 82.6 plays per game, with a 52.3% pass rate. Duke returns four starters along the offensive line and they also receive Stanford transfer Devery Hamilton. Hamilton started six games for Stanford in 2018, but suffered an injury last year. Despite the returning production, they’ve allowed Chase Brice to get sacked 17 times. This group ranks 61st in pass blocking.
Chase Brice ($5,500) – Inefficient to start 2020, Chase Brice currently averages 6.6 yards per attempt with a 53.6 completions percentage. The Clemson transfer currently averages 38.6 pass attempts per game, giving him a chance to post big games. Brice also provides decent rushing upside with 104 yards on the year. However, Brice has displayed little pocket awareness, taking 17 sacks already this season. Because of the sacks, his cumulative rushing total sits at -3 yards. Raw volume puts Brice in the contrarian stacking category, but his efficiency raises major concerns.
Deon Jackson ($5,800) – Playing for the 1-4 Blue Devils, Deon Jackson finally found some positive game script last week. After averaging 15 carries per game through his first four contest, Jackson popped off for 30 carries against Syracuse last week. Interestingly Mateo Durant also carried 23 times last week. This backfield is more of a timeshare than initially thought at the beginning of the season.
Noah Gray ($3,800) – Duke’s tight end and most targeted player, Noah Gray continues to play a part time role in this offense. Despite his team-leading target share (15%), he only has a 57% route rate.
Jake Bobo ($4,100) – Conversely, Jake Bobo has the most routes run in three straight weeks for Duke. Jake Bobo was a consistent, but low-volume receiver in Duke’s offense. He saw seven targets last week, but he still has a mere 13.8% target share on the year.
CFB DFS Analysis: North Carolina State (32 Team Total)
Offense – Dave Doeren is the long-time coach of NC State, with Tim Beck joining the program at offensive coordinator after a disastrous 2019. Beck coached quarterbacks at Texas in 2019 after getting demoted from offensive coordinator. Beck’s 2018 Texas team ran 76.4 plays per game (26th) and passed 47% of the time (62nd). Through three games, this NC State team has run 74.8 plays per game, with a 45.5% pass rate. NC State played conservative football through their first two games, until committing to Devin Leary as the starting quarterback. Since then, they’ve varied their approach going extremely pass heavy against Pittsburgh and extremely run-heavy against Virginia. The offensive line is a major question here and particularly so at the tackle positions. They rank 72nd in pass blocking.
Devin Leary ($6,300) – Devin Leary had previously been listed as a co-starter on NC State’s depth chart with Bailey Hockman. However, NC State fully committed to Leary and he has averaged 8.1 yards per attempt with a 60% completion percentage. The NC State quarterback currently averages 31.5 pass attempts per game, which is lower than average after the Wolfpack pounded Virginia last week. Leary possesses stacking appeal.
Ricky Person ($4,500) – Continuing to trim the fat, NC State narrowed their backfield rotation to a two-man committee between Ricky Person and Zonovan Knight. This is a near 50:50 timeshare, making Person the better price-adjusted play within the offense.
Zonovan Knight ($5,800) – While Person provides cheaper access to volume for NC State, it is possible that Zonovan Knight plays his way into a feature back role. In the ground alone, Knight has out-gained Person 321-258 on four fewer carries. Knight also is the superior pass catcher with nine targets to Person’s four. Knight is the preferred play here.
Emeka Emezie ($4,900) – After running an egregious time share at the wide receiver position to start the year, NC State finally narrowed their target distribution. Emeka Emezie led NC State in routes run in each of the past two games. He also led the team in targets in each of those games, posting 17 total targets. He is the top stacking option with Leary this week.
Devin Carter ($4,000) – Behind Emezie, Carter looks like the clear WR2 after running the second-most routes in back-to-back weeks. People may be inclined to play someone like Porter Rooks based on target volume, but Carter is the secondary pass catcher of choice.
Thayer Thomas ($3,600) – Technically the WR3, Thayer Thomas logged a mere 52% route rate over the last two games. He has ten targets in his last two games and should find himself in this range on most occasions.
Mississippi vs Arkansas
CFB DFS Analysis: Mississippi (38.5 Team Total)
Offense – Lane Kiffin heads over to Ole Miss after coaching at FAU. At FAU, Kiffin’s offense ran 77.5 plays per game (11th) and passed 48.8% of the time (57th). Kiffin also hired Jeff Lebby as his offensive coordinator, who comes over from UCF. They run a similar offense in pace and pass rate. Ole Miss was set to return four of five starters on the offensive line, but center Eli Johnson opted out. Still Nick Broeker was a freshman all-American and new center Ben Brown didn’t allow a single QB pressure last year. So far this year, Ole Miss averages 79.3 plays per game and a 41.2% pass rate, but their offense ranks 73rd in pass blocking. Luckily, Arkansas’ pass rash is basically non-existent.
Matt Corral ($8,800) – Playing in arguably college football’s top offense, Matt Corral has played at an elite level to start 2020. He currently averages 12.3 yards per attempt with a 76.1% completion percentage. On 29.3 attempts per game, Corral also averages 358.3 passing yards. Capable as a rusher, Corral’s 141 cumulative yards only add to his intrigue this week. He looks like one of the top quarterbacks on this week’s slate. Funny enough, he had never eclipsed 300 yards passing in a game till this season.
Jerrion Ealy ($6,700) and Snoop Conner ($5,500) -Both Jerrion Ealy and Snoop Conner will split carries in Ole Miss’ offense. Currently, Ealy has out-touched Conner 52-40, but that shifted in the Rebel’s most recent game. Conner racked up 22 touches to Ealy’s 21 in Ole Miss’ tilt against Alabama. With Conner coming in as the cheaper back, he probably deserves more attention. Both backs warrant consideration here.
Elijah Moore ($8,000) – Easily Ole Miss’ top receiver, Moore will play the slot for the Rebels. After leading the team in receiving last year (67 catches, 850 yards), Moore saw 34 targets though three games this season. Also averaging an absurd 152.3 receiving yards per contest, Moore looks like one of college football’s top overall receivers. He is still a strong play despite his hefty price tag.
Jonathan Mingo ($5,600) – Running the second-most routes on Ole Miss, Jonathan Mingo ranks third on the team in targets (12). While his target share sits at 13.8%, Mingo already proved capable of enormous performances. In Ole Miss’ second game, Mingo turned nine targets into eight catches for 128 yards and a pair of scores.
Dontario Drummond ($4,900) – The distant third receiver for the Rebels, Dontario Drummond has only run a route on 60% of Matt Corral drop backs. He looks more like a dart throw than Ole Miss’ other pass catchers.
Kenny Yeboah ($6,300) – The 6-4, 240-pounds Temple transfer, Kenny Yeboah remains key asset in Ole Miss offense. Yeboah already has 15 targets this season, averaging 118.3 receiving yards per game. Yeboah also has a 79% route rate, making him a solid play this weekend.
CFB DFS Analysis: Arkansas (37 Team Total)
Offense – Arkansas hired Sam Pittman as their new head coach and he brought in Kendal Briles as offensive coordinator. Briles most recently coordinated a Florida State offense that ran 74.9 plays per game (21st) and passed 56.7% of the time. So far this year, they’re averaging 70.7 plays per game, with a 49.5% pass rate. However, this number jumped to 77 plays against Auburn. Georgia and a sloppy game against Mississippi State likely depressed the overall play volume for the Razorbacks to start the year. The offense also returned a ton of play-makers, including four starting offensive linemen, who accumulated 61 career starts.
Feleipe Franks ($7,200) – Game manager Feleipe Franks finds himself in his top matchup for the season against Ole Miss. Franks currently completes 64.9% of his passes for 7.8 yards per attempt. However, he also averages 32.7 pass attempts per game for 237 yards. While this number may not seem high, Arkansas already faced off against Georgia, Mississippi State, and Auburn. Volume should not be a problem for Franks in this spot.
Rakeem Boyd ($5,700) – Boyd suffered a foot injury in Arkansas’ second game and subsequently missed last week. Boyd reportedly practiced all week and projects to form a committee with Trelon Smith. In their only full game of healthy action this year, Boyd out-touched Smith 17-9.
Trelon Smith ($6,100) – If Boyd cannot go, Trelon Smith looks like one of the top backs on the slate. In Boyd’s absence, Smith handled 21 and 27 touches. Last week alone, Smith notched 81 rushing yards and 78 receiving yards, potentially separating himself from Boyd. My guess is we see a timeshare here.
Treylon Burks ($4,700) – Treylon Burks also suffered an injury in Arkansas’ second game and missed their third. Unlike Boyd, Burks actually dressed last week, but did not take the field. Burks led Arkansas with ten targets in Week 1 and looked locked in as WR1 for Arkansas entering the year. Burks primarily plays slot receiver for Arkansas. He is a 6-3, 232-pound receiver with immense athletic ability. Last year, he handled 10 carries out of the backfield and led the team with 59 targets
Mike Woods ($5,100) – Woods is the WE2 here after running a route on 88% of Arkansas’ drop backs, while handling a 21% target share. Burks remains the superior play if healthy, but both remain amazing price-adjusted plays in one of the best game environments on the slate.
Tyson Morris ($3,000) – While only seeing a pair of targets last week, Tyson Morris’ route rate jumped to 82.6% last week. Burks return likely renders Morris unusable, but he is a name to monitor.
Trey Knox ($3,200) – After a solid 2019 season, Knox looks to have fallen out of favor. His route share dropped to 35% last week.
De’Vion Warren ($6,000) – Seeing 11 targets between Arkansas’ last two games, De’Vion Warren has route rates on 79% and 65%. For some reason, he is more expensive than Woods or Burks and both are clearly ahead of him in the target pecking order.
Texas A&M vs Mississippi State
CFB DFS Analysis: Texas A&M (29.5 Team Total)
Offense – Jimbo Fisher returns as A&M’s head coach, along with Darrell Dickey as offensive coordinator. Last year, this team passed 53.3% of the time (31st) and ran 69.3 plays per game (79th). Texas A&M has slowly trended in the right direction to open the year. After a brutal 17-12 win over Vanderbilt and an expected loss to Alabama, A&M upset Florida 41-38 last week. Particularly hit hard by opt outs and injuries, a slow start made sense for this team. Positively, they did return five offensive linemen, who each have at least 13 career starts under their belt. Their play volume has also normalized after a brutal 56-play outing in Week 1. Since then, they ran 79 and 76 plays in their two most recent games (penalties included). On the year, they’re running 69 plays per game, with a 54.1% pass rate.
Kellen Mond ($7,300) – Slowly improving through Texas A&M’s first couple games, Kellen Mond currently averages 7.8 yards per attempt with a 62.6% completion percentage. Mond’s 36 passing attempts and 281.7 passing yards per game keep him in play on a weekly basis. Positively, Mond also began utilizing his skills as a rusher. Mond currently sits at 45 yards for the season, but his rushing usage remains elite, if used correctly.
Ainias Smith ($5,200) – With Caleb Chapman suffering a season-ending injury in the middle of last week’s game, Ainias Smith converted to Texas A&M’s slot receiver role. A former receiver, Smith transition led to an 86% route rate and fiver targets in the pass game. Already targeted 14 times when playing running back, Smith doesn’t deserve much consideration at this price if he plays in the slot full time.
Isaiah Spiller ($6,300) – With Ainias Smith moving into the slot, Isaiah Spiller assumed backfield duties for Texas A&M. Spiller also ran a route on 64% of A&M drop backs, while out-carrying Smith 27-6. Spiller now averages 105.3 rushing yards per game after his monstrous Week 6 outing. He looks like a potential bell-cow against Mississippi State this weekend.
Caleb Chapman – Mentioned above, Texas A&M’s top receiver Caleb Chapman suffered a season-ending injury after his career 12-target day.
Chase Lane ($5,700) – Chase Lane actually leads this team with 22 targets on the year after receiving 12 in Week 2 and another six in Week 3. He has now run a route on 100% of A&M drop backs each of the past two weeks. He is the top receiving option within this offense.
Jalen Wydermyer ($4,500) – Tight end Jalen Wydermyer also projects to play an increased role for A&M. Wydermyer has a 90% route rate and 21 total targets this season. He is a solid price-adjusted play.
Jalen Preston ($4,000) – Jalen Preston back-to-back seven and six target games before playing seven snaps last week.
Hezekiah Jones ($3,000) – Texas A&M listed Hezekiah Jones as day-to-day, but his availability remains questionable. Jones is the only receiver on this roster with much experience. He posted 15 receptions for 134 yards last season.
CFB DFS Analysis: Mississippi State (25 Team Total)
Perhaps undergoing more drastic changes than any other program in the country, Mississippi State moves over to Mike Leach’s air raid system. This team is replacing three full-time starters on the offensive line and just lost Alabama transfer Scott Lashley to a season-ending injury. The replacements include former five-star Charles Cross and a few transfers. However, this team has struggled mightily after upsetting a down LSU team in Week 1. So far this year, they’re averaging 84 plays per game and a 78.6% pass rate. They rank 67th in pass blocking, while A&M has the 52nd ranked pass rush.
KJ Costello ($6,800) – KJ Costello comes over as a transfer from Stanford. Costello’s leash appears to be shortening after a pair of dreadful performances after the LSU upset. On the year, Costello averages just 6.7 yards per attempt with a 66.1% completion percentage. He also has an absurd nine interceptions in three games. Freshman Will Rogers ($6,500) could see time in this game if Costello’s errors continue. With that said, Costello averages 59 pass attempts and 389.3 passing yards per game. He has -38 rushing yards on the year, but this volume warrants stacking consideration on a weekly basis.
Kylin Hill ($6,800) – Kylin Hill remains the starting running back in the most interesting role in football. Hill missed most of Mississippi State’s second game, but he carried seven times in each of his full games this season. More active as a receiver, Hill absurdly handled ten and 17 targets through Mississippi State’s first two games.
Javonta Payton ($5,400) – Among the actual wide receivers, Javonta Payton leads the group with 24 targets. Payton was listed as the starter in the slot on the other side opposite Austin Williams. Payton reeled in nine catches for 147 yards last year and stands 6-1, 180-pound receiver. His 76% route rate leads this Mississippi State team.
Austin Williams ($4,400) – Originally listed as the starting slot receiver for Mississippi State, Williams handled nine targets on a 92% route rate in Week 1. In Week 2, Williams only played one snap. In Week 3, Williams rebounded for six targets on an 86% route rate. I can’t find anything regarding an injury, so I’m going to assume Williams is a top two receiver in this offense.
Malik Heath ($3,800) – Originally listed as a co-starter with Cameron Gardner at the X-receiver position, Malik Heath saw his targets climb jump from 2, 5, 8 in three weeks with the team. Heath’s route rate has remained constant at 50% in this span. On the other side of this time share, Gardner averages a 47% route rate in this offense.
Tyrell Shavers ($4,000) – Shavers was listed at the started at the Z-receiver position. Shavers enters the Mississippi State program as an Alabama transfer. Shavers is a former four-star prospect and the No.12 receiver from the 2017 class. He is 6-6, 200-pounds, but his routes continue to jump around. Shavers went from 45% in Week 1 to 63% in Week 2 to 47% in Week 3.
Osirus Mitchell ($6,000) – Mississippi State listed Mitchell as a backup receiver at X behind Tyrell Shavers. This remains the most interesting depth chart move after Mitchell led Mississippi State with 430 receiving yards last year. Mitchell also has the exact same 47% route rate as Cameron Gardner this year. Still, he remains third on the team with 21 targets in three games.
Virginia vs Wake Forest
CFB DFS Analysis: Virginia (30.5 Team Total)
Offense – Bronco Mendenhall remains head coach of Virginia. Robert Anae remains the offensive coordinator. Last year, Virginia passed 56.3% of the time (14th), while running 71.6 plays per game (61st). So far this year, Virginia has run 88.3 plays per game and passed 60.8% of the time. Their play volume has been consistent too, with 83, 85, and 99 plays in their first three games (penalties included). Virginia also returns all five starting offensive linemen and even a couple more with starting experience. They rank 20th in pass blocking, further highlight Brennan Armstrong’s incompetence last week.
Brennan Armstrong ($7,000) – The biggest bust of last week’s slate, Armstrong turned a negative fantasy score before exiting with a concussion. He remains in protocol and Mendenhall said the team is preparing to start Lindell Stone this weekend. Armstrong started the year efficiently, averaging 270 passing yards per game on 44 attempts heading into last week’s game. He also averaged 80.5 yards per game rushing. Whoever starts this game has stacking appeal in an absurdly voluminous offense.
Lindell Stone ($6,800) – In relief for Armstrong, Stone threw the ball 54 times for 240 yards and 3 scores. Extremely inefficient and non-existent as a rusher, Armstrong still gives this team the best chance of winning games. With that said, stacking whoever starts for this Virginia team makes sense.
Wayne Taulapapa ($4,900) –The lead ball carrier for Virginia, Wayne Taulapapa has out-touched Shane Simpson 54-23 to start the season. Taulapapa benefits from Stone, because Armstrong siphons off additional rushing attempts. Another concern is the return of Ronnie Walker. The Indiana transfer received clearance from the NCAA and should make his debut here. The touch distribution remains up for debate.
Billy Kemp ($6,500) – The versatile Billy Kemp currently leads Virginia with 42 targets and a 27.8% target share. Moved around the formation, Kemp will spend some of this time in the slot. Unbeknownst to DraftKings, he doesn’t play running back. Despite his 5-9, 170-pound stature and incorrect pricing, Kemps’ usage warrants strong consideration in Armstrong stacks.
Terrell Jana ($5,300) – Last year’s third-leading receiver with 73 catches and 878 yards on 99 targets, Terrell Jana currently ranks second on the team with 37 targets. Steady as they come, Jana has logged target counts of 8, 8, and 21. Jana stands 6-0, 200-pounds and surprisingly leads Virginia in slot routes to start the season. Jana also holds a team-best 86% route rate.
Lavel Davis ($4,900) – Freshman sensation Lavel Davis has posted target counts of 8, 7, and 5. Importantly, Davis’ route rate jumped to 90% in Virginia’s most recent game.
Tavares Kelly ($3,100) – Tavares Kelly is expected to return to action this weekend, but I doubt it influences the receiver rotation.
Tony Poljan ($3,900) – An athletic Central Michigan transfer and former quarterback, Tony Poljan stands 6-7, 265-pounds. He caught 33 passes for 496 yards and four scores last year. He has target counts of 6, 6, and 11, while running a route on 83% of drop backs in Virginia’s most recent game. Everyone mentioned above except Tavares Kelly is a strong play.
CFB DFS Analysis: Wake Forest (28 Team Total)
Offense – Dave Clawson remains Wake Forest’s head coach and Warren Ruggiero remains his offensive coordinator. On par with their totals a season ago, Wake Forest currently averages 84.5 plays per game and a 50.9% pass rate.
Sam Hartman ($5,800) – Playing in a voluminous Wake Forest passing attack, Hartman currently comples 63% of his passes for 8.0 yards per attempt. Hartman only averages 24.3 pass attempts per game for 195 yards to this point in the season, but the Wake Forest offense provides the raw tools for big games. Unfortunately, he a -33 cumulative rushing total on the year.
Kenneth Walker ($6,600) – Kenneth Walker and Christian Beal-Smith ($5,000) split carries for Wake Forest. Both runners have exactly 44 opportunities this season. Wake Forest rides the hot hand, with Kenneth Walker out-carrying Beal-Smith 27-12 in their second game. However, that flipped to Beal-Smith out-carrying Walker 20-11 in Wake Forest’s most recent contest against Campbell. Both are decent options, but Beal-Smith remains cheaper.
Donovan Green ($4,000) – Wake Forest runs a horrific wide receiver rotation, but Donovan Green currently ranks second on the team with a 65% route rate. He also has just 14 targets this year.
AT Perry ($4,500) – Wake Forest’s target leader (21) and route leader (65%), AT Perry looks like the top wide receiver to target in this offense. While all of the Wake Forest wide receivers remain difficult to trust, Perry looks like the most reliable option.
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