Another Saturday CFB betting slate is here and we are basically fully into conference play. In addition, this is a fantastic Saturday slate of games with plenty of big time matchup and ranked opponents facing off across the country. There is a full DFS slate to breakdown so make sure to check out the DFS Week 7 College Football article where we will talk about some individual players that you may want to roster on Saturday. This article is going to focus on a few games from a betting perspective and where I am leaning in the betting market.
BYU at South Florida 3:30 PM EST : BYU -5 O/U 50.5
I just mentioned all the marquee games on the slate and sadly, this isn’t one of them. BYU has played a brutal schedule so far and sits at 2-3 while South Florida is just bad at 2-3.
There are no cupcakes on this schedule as BYU has played only Power-Five opponents and Toledo, who is a talented MAC team, to start the season. At times, they’ve looked like a quality team, but they seem to be wearing down a bit and now the big news is that quarterback Zach Wilson is out for a while with an injured thumb. That is a gigantic loss for a team already struggling on the offensive side of the ball and I don’t know who will be replacing him. One positive is BYU is coming off a bye so they had some time to install new wrinkles, but the loss at quarterback cannot be ignored.
South Florida is such a bad team and yet here we are once again. Charlie Strong is a guy I constantly think makes some head-scratching decisions and this season has been a major disappointment. Their quarterback, Blake Barnett, is also out with injury, but the torch was being passed anyway as freshman quarterback Jordan McCloud has taken over. Last week, he showed off his dual-threat ability against UConn, which doesn’t mean much as the Huskies are one of the worst teams in the country. Still, this team has talent and speed if they can just avoid turnovers and not beat themselves.
I don’t know if South Florida can salvage their season, but maybe a changing of the guard at quarterback can jump start this offense. McCloud can make plays with his legs and has plenty of talent around him if he can just find ways to get them the ball. BYU is a decent team, but without an identity now due to the loss of their leader in Wilson. Without him, I think they may take a step back starting this week.
My Pick: South Florida +5
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Louisville at Wake Forest 7:30 PM EST : Wake Forest -6.5 O/U 65.5
This is getting better, but still not a marquee matchup as these two ACC squads face off in Winston-Salem. Wake Forest is still unbeaten and is sitting in the top 20 of the national rankings. The Cardinals are 3-2 and isn’t really in the conversation to make any noise this season.
Louisville is a team really searching for an identity and it didn’t help that their Juwon Pass went down to injury early in the season. The positive is that backup Malik Cunningham is a dual threat with massive ability and he has done his best to keep this team afloat.
The problem with Louisville is the defense, as they are currently 90th in yards allowed per play. They have faced some tough opponents, but they need to do more in order to generate turnovers and allow this offense to not have to put 35-plus points on the board every week to win. Against a dynamic Wake Forest attack, this doesn’t seem like the spot where they will be able to slow down the opponent. That will put tremendous pressure on whoever is under center for the Cardinals.
There were some expectations heading into this season for Wake Forest, but I’m not sure many people thought they’d be climbing the rankings like this. Granted, the schedule hasn’t thrown them any big contenders, but they’ve managed to survive and move to 5-0 on the season. Quarterback Jamie Newman is the reason for the success as he is a dual threat who leads this high-octane offense. Wake Forest plays fast and their play-making quarterback holds the entire thing together. It doesn’t hurt that he has a number of big-time weapons around him and this Wake offense can put up points on anyone.
Wake Forest is similar to Louisville in that their defense isn’t the strongest unit out there, and they have a tough task with how fast this offense plays. So far this seaso, they rank 80th in yards allowed per play and seem to struggle stopping both the run and the pass. With how dynamic their offense is, they aren’t asked to pitch shutouts and that gives them some room to get the job done.
Both these teams have dual-threat quarterbacks and some explosive options on the outside. At home, I think Wake Forest does enough to continue the unbeaten streak and move to 6-0. Newman isn’t getting enough recognition across the country for how good he is and Louisville will be unable to slow him and this Wake Forest offense. On the flip side, I expect Louisville to move the ball as well and that has me leaning to the over in this spot.
My Pick: Over 65.5
Wyoming at San Diego St 12 PM EST : SDSU -3, O/U 38
As much as I would love to write up these big games, to me the value is in some of these under-the-radar matchups between two teams off the national stage. That is what we have here as Wyoming travels to San Diego State to take on the Aztecs.
The Cowboys are a methodical offense and since Josh Allen is leading the Bills these days, they really don’t have a vertical passing attack. Instead, they rely on a stout defense and establishing the run which is why we see this total sub 40. In college, that’s really rare to see, but its hard to visualize many explosive plays coming out of this offense. On the year, Wyoming sits at 4-1 with their lone loss coming in a close game at Tulsa a few weeks back. They also are much tougher in Laramie where they are at elevation, but this is a road game where they travel to San Diego.
San Diego State
San Diego State also sits at 4-1 on the season with their lone loss coming against Utah State. Like Wyoming, they are not an explosive offense and rely on a quality quarterback and a trio of running backs to get the job done. Quarterback Ryan Agnew comes into the game with seven touchdowns on the year and a pair of interceptions. That really is the formula the Aztecs want to roll with.
More importantly is the defensive side of the ball, which is a quality unit that will cause problems for opposing Mountain West offenses. San Diego State ranks second in the entire country in yards allowed per rush and it is going to be difficult for Wyoming to get anything going on the ground. Wyoming is no slouch either, ranking fourth against the run, so it will be up to Agnew to keep them honest with some vertical shots.
Clearly, both teams have issues on offense and with each sporting a top-end rushing defense, this should come down to quarterbacks. San Diego State has more of a traditional pocket passers while the Wyoming quarterback is a dual threat who only has three passing touchdowns the entire season. For that reason, I think San Diego State at home is able to be more balanced on offense and will find ways to generate enough points to win this key Mountain West matchup.
My Pick: San Diego St -3
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Good Luck everyone!