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The Deep Dive: Week 11 College Football DFS Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel | Saturday

Matt Gajewski

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Matt Gajewski's expert college football deep dive for Week 11 CFB DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel Saturday, 11/13 | Oklahoma and LSU.

Week 11 action continues with a Saturday slate featuring a full slate of games, and DraftKings and FanDuel have great contests for this slate of games. This CFB DFS picks breakdown will look at each team and provide information about each skill position player of note within the game. Make sure to check out our projections, depth charts and datasheets for more information. With that said, let us dive into the first iteration of the college football DFS picks for Saturday’s matchup.

Table of Contents

College Football Deep Dive: Week 11 CFB DFS Picks

Iowa State vs. Texas Tech

Iowa State (34.75 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 67.5 (92nd)

Pass Rate – 49.44% (50th)

Brock Purdy ($6,800) finds himself in a solid game environment this week as 11-point favorites over Texas Tech. Purdy has solid mobility, with 239 yards rushing so far this year. Overall, he has been hurt by Iowa State’s low-volume offense at times. He only averages 232.7 yards passing per game on 28.3 attempts. Purdy has also thrown the ball more than 30 times just three times this year, despite his efficiency. With one 300-yard game this year, Purdy is still a solid floor, low ceiling option in most matchups. Iowa State’s implied team total keeps him in the tournament conversation.

Iowa State has one of the best backs in the country in Breece Hall ($9,500) Hall averages 123.4 yards rushing and 24.6 yards receiving per game on 25.3 touches. He has at least 21 touches in each of Iowa State’s last three games. Hall also has the third-most targets on the team, keeping him involved in all game scripts. He is cost prohibitive, but playable based on his elite upside.

Iowa State focuses on two pass catchers in Xavier Hutchinson ($7,400) and tight end Charlie Kolar ($4,500). Hutchinson averages eight target per game to Kolar’s 7.1. Hutchinson also holds the edge in terms of yardage at 76.2 yards per game to 54.8 for Kolar. Kolar is far cheaper, but both are playable. Iowa State runs a lot of two tight ends with Chase Allen ($3,500), preventing any of the other receivers from a full workload. Jaylin Noel ($3,100) technically plays the WR2 spot and saw six targets last week. However, he only averages 2.9 on the year. Stacks should focus on Hutchinson and Kolar here.

Texas Tech (23.75 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 67.1 (96th)

Pass Rate – 48.79% (59th)

Tyler Shough ($5,700) returned to practice this week after breaking his collarbone in September. Shough sported a non-contact jersey, suggesting Henry Colombi ($5,500) will once again start for the Red Raiders. Colombi leaves much to be desired as a quarterback. He averages just 183.6 yards per game. He has also been splitting time with Donovan Smith ($5,300) in recent weeks. Making this a situation to avoid. Smith has excellent mobility, and he did complete 77.3% of his passes for 192 yards, one touchdown and an interception in Texas Tech’s most recent game. If Smith were to draw the start, his mobility would make him an intriguing GPP play against Iowa State’s tough defense. If Shough can get right, he would also be in consideration at a cheap price.

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Texas Tech continues to employ a running back committee, featuring SaRodorick Thompson ($5,200), Xavier White ($3,900) and Tahj Brooks ($3,600) none of these players has seen more than 10 carries in a game over the last two weeks, making them purely GPP darts in a tough matchup. Brooks has been the most efficient.

At receiver Texas Tech finally stopped messing around and reasserted Erik Ezukanma ($6,500) as their alpha receiver. He averages 78.9 yards per game on 7.3 targets but jumped up to a 90% route rate and saw nine targets last week. With his increase Kaylon Geiger ($4,400) dropped back to his rotational role with Myles Price ($4,200), J.J. Sparkman ($3,600) and Travis Koontz ($3,200). None of these ancillary plays are primary considerations on this slate.

Michigan vs. Penn State

Michigan (23.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 71.7 (50th)

Pass Rate – 38.45% (118th)

Cade McNamara ($5,300) is Michigan’s game manager extraordinaire. McNamara is not mobile and averages just 23.3 attempts per game in a Michigan offense with a 38.5% pass rate. He has been efficient with a 62.5% completion percentage and 8 yards per attempt. However, he only has two games north of 30 attempts and one game above 300 yards. In competitive games, Michigan will increase their tempo and pass rate. He threw 38 times against Nebraska and 44 times against Michigan State. The spread is close against Penn State, but the overall 48-point total leaves much to be desired from this offense. McNamara is still just a GPP play.

Blake Corum ($6,600) sustained an injury after two touches in Michigan’s most recent game. Jim Harbaugh failed to update his status rendering him a question mark here. Corum and Hassan Haskins ($7,500) operate in a 50/50 timeshare when both are healthy. Without Corum, Haskins handled 27 carries and one target for Michigan. Already averages 92.1 yards rushing and 19 touches per game, Corum’s potential absence would make Haskins an excellent play against a middling Penn State run defense.

Tight end Erick All ($3,900) is also questionable for this game. Without him, Luke Schoonmaker ($3,300) became a full-time player and saw four targets. Either way, Cornelius Johnson ($5,300) is the top receiver here, averaging 7.8 targets per game over Michigan’s last three games. The other primary receiver is Mike Sainristil ($3,300). Roman Wilson ($3,200) and Andrel Anthony ($5,600) operate in a 50/50 timeshare as the WR3. Anthony had a random 10 target game two weeks ago, but none of these players receive significant opportunity.

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Penn State (24.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 74.0 (29th)

Pass Rate – 55.24% (17th)

Sean Clifford ($5,800) appears healthy after a mid-season shoulder injury against Iowa. On the year, Clifford averages 263.4 yards passing per game on 34.7 attempts. Penn State’s offense passes the ball 55.2% of the time, while playing with an above average pace. This gives Clifford a solid floor, which is aided by his 121 cumulative yards rushing this season. Clifford already has three games over 300 yards and another three above 230. This is a tougher matchup against a slow, defensively should Michigan. However, volume keeps Clifford in the GPP conversation here.

Penn State continued their nasty running back by committee, featuring Noah Cain ($4,300), Keyvone Lee ($3,700) and John Lovett ($3,200) in a direct timeshare. Cain led the group with 14 touches, to Lovett’s ten. Michigan plays elite run defense, making them all poor options here.

At receiver Jahan Dotson ($8,800) averages 103.6 yards per game on 11.9 targets. Over Penn State’s last four he averages 15.3 targets per game and has not seen fewer than 13 in any contest. Behind him, Parker Washington ($4,400) and KeAndre Lambert-Smith ($3,900) are the WR2 and WR3. Washington averages 55.3 yards per game on 6.6 targets, compared to 46.6 yard per game on 4.8 targets for Lambert-Smith. Theo Johnson ($3,200) and Brenton Strange ($3,700) will split time at tight end. All of the receivers are in play here based on Penn State’s up-tempo attack. He matchup makes them better for GPPs.

Oklahoma vs. Baylor

Oklahoma (34.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 66.0 (105th)

Pass Rate – 51.33% (39th)

Oklahoma has yet to face a top 80 defense since Caleb Williams ($10,000) took over the quarterback position. Baylor ranks inside the top 20 giving him his toughest test to date. With that said, Williams has an elite dual-threat skillset, featuring 288 yards rushing in limited starts this year. As a passer, he benefits from Oklahoma’s 51.3% pass rate. Still, Oklahoma has only allowed him to hit 30 pass attempts once this year. Williams has still been extremely efficient with two games above 295 yards in four starts. Williams is extremely expensive and drawing his first tough opponent. He is still worth the risk in GPPs, but his cost makes him risky.

Kennedy Brooks ($7,700) continues to operate as Oklahoma’s preferred back. He has at least 21 touches in three straight games, excluding last week’s dismantling of Texas Tech. One the year, Brooks averages an efficient 91 yards per game on 14.9 touches. He should benefit from a projected close game with a high total. Tennessee transfer Eric Gray ($4,000) is nothing more than a change of pace back at this point.

At receiver Jason Haselwood ($6,000) still leads an annoying timeshare at the position. His 72% route rate leads the team. Sophomore standout, Marvin Mims ($6,400) fell back down to 49% of the routes with Mario Williams ($4,000) healthy. Williams ran 54% of the routes himself, while Drake Stoops ($3,600) mixed in for 43%. With Mike Woods ($4,100) expected to return and Theo Wease ($3,000) potentially making his debut, this team is a mess. Tight ends Austin Stogner ($3,300) and Brayden Willis ($3,500) will also factor in. This is not a strong receiving corps to target. Even Haselwood is too expensive for his projected role. Perhaps Woods or Williams could be worth a dart throw in tournaments.

Baylor (28.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 64.4 (115th)

Pass Rate – 40.78% (113th)

Baylor’s biggest advantage comes against a poor Oklahoma pass defense, allowing 291.6 yards per game. Unfortunately, Baylor is a run-heavy, low-volume offense under game manager Gerry Bohanon ($7,200). Bohanon is somewhat mobile, with 176 yards on the ground this year. However, he averages only 219.7 as a passer on 24.6 attempts per game. His only 300 yards passing game came against West Virginia and he only has one other game above 250 yards (Kansas). Bohanon has only reached the 30-attempt mark once this year, giving him a low floor. While Oklahoma could drive them into a pass-heavy script, Bohanon is too expensive for his median outcome here.

After letting Abram Smith ($7,100) handle extra work for a few weeks, he split time with Trestan Ebner ($4,000) again. Smith still out-touched Ebner 20-12, but Ebner prevents Smith from feature back touches. Smith still averages 116.9 rushing and 4.4 yards receiving per game. This is a tough matchup on the ground, but the total is solid. Smith and Ebner are both GPP viable.

Oklahoma may push Baylor to increase their pass rate, putting Tyquan Thornton ($6,800) and his 31% target share into play. Thornton averages 79.4 yards per game on 7.3 target, but he has averaged 8.8 targets per game over Baylor’s last four contests. Behind him, R.J. Sneed ($4,500) averages five targets and tight end Ben Sims ($4,000) averages 4.3 in Baylor’s last three. Drew Estrada ($3,200) is technically the WR3, but he is largely uninvolved.

Mississippi State vs. Auburn

Mississippi State (22.25 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 78.9 (9th)

Pass Rate – 72.54% (1st)

Playing in a poor scoring environment, Will Rogers ($7,400) benefits from the pass heaviest offense in the country. On top of that, Mississippi State runs 78.9 plays per game, giving Rogers immense volume. On the year, he averages 364.3 yards per game on 53.8 attempts. Even against a relatively strong Auburn defense, Rogers has a decent change of backdooring his way into a 300-yard bonus. His middling price deserves consideration here.

Mississippi State backs bring decent value on PPR platforms. Jo’Quavious Marks ($6,700) averages 16.9 touches per game with 7.8 coming as targets. His 76.4 yards per game leave a little to be desired, but the catches make up the difference. Even Dillon Johnson ($3,900) is a fine punt play in GPPs behind his 12.8 touches per game. Like Marks, 5.9 of those come as targets, giving him a floor.

At receiver Makai Polk ($7,600) leads Mississippi State with 80 yards and 10.6 targets per game. He is the clear pay up option, but Austin Williams ($3,700) continues to get more involved at a cheap price. Williams’ route rate jumped above 80% last week and he has three straight games with four targets. From there, Jaden Walley ($4,800) and Rara Thomas ($4,500) posted a 63% route rate, with Malik Heath ($3,300) coming in at 35%. Jamire Calvin ($3,000) has been completely phased out of the offense, with even Christian Ford ($3,600) playing ahead of him. Polk and Williams are the two top options here.

Auburn (27.75 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 73.0 (37th)

Pass Rate – 53.08% (30th)

Bo Nix ($6,100) has showed relative improvement this year, but he still averages 212.9 yards passing per game on 31.8 attempts. Nix is still completing a mediocre 60.3% of his passes for 6.8 yard per attempt. He has yet to pass for 300 yards in a game this year and only has two 300-yard games in his three-year career with Auburn. Nix does have some rushing ability with 161 cumulative yards rushing this year. However, he is still a low upside option in this poor game environment.

For the first time in a while, Tank Bigsby ($5,800) worked well ahead of Jarquez Hunter ($3,400), out-touching him 20-4 last week. Bigsby averages 82.2 rushing and 9.4 yards receiving per game on 17.8 touches. Hunter has been efficient in his own right, making the shift somewhat surprising. Shaun Shivers ($3,600) continues to be involved as a pass catching back, seeing another six targets last week. Bigsby warrants GPP consideration on an increased role.

At receiver there continues to be little differentiation between Shedrick Jackson ($3,600), Kobe Hudson ($4,100) and Demetris Robertson ($4,700). All three have seen between 45-48 targets this year. They all have between 312 and 383 yards as well. Even tight end John Samuel Shenker ($3,200) has been just as involved with 36 targets and 323 yards on the season. None of these players standout, so paying down if targeting Auburn makes sense here.

Northwestern vs. Wisconsin

Northwestern (8.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 71.0 (56th)

Pass Rate – 50.88% (42nd)

After getting banged up earlier this year, Andrew Marty ($4,800) has emerged as Northwestern’s starting quarterback. Marty is the most mobile of the group with 86 yards rushing on the year. Marty has been serviceable as Northwestern’s quarterback, but he only averages 6.8 yards per attempt, five touchdowns and three interceptions. He threw for 170 against Iowa but failed to best 151 yards in his other two starts. He is a low upside option against Wisconsin’s elite defense, despite his price tag.

Evan Hull ($5,400) leads Northwestern’s backfield averaging, 17.2 touches per game. This includes 87.9 rushing and 22.7 yards receiving per game. Hull has 14 targets over Northwestern’s last three games, keeping him viable in all game scripts. Andrew Clair ($3,100) is not really playing much anymore, but Hull still faces one of the country’s best run defenses in Wisconsin.

At receiver Northwestern continues to use Kansas transfer Stephon Robinson ($4,300) as the alpha. He averages 61.1 yards per game on 7.3 targets. Behind him, Malik Washington ($3,800) has taken on a larger role as the team’s secondary option. He averages 7.3 targets over Northwestern’s last three games compared to 5.2 on the year. Marshall Lang ($3,000) is the starting tight end and they use a rotation at WR3. However, none of the ancillary options are worth looking at because Washington is already cheap. This is a situation to avoid for the most part.

Wisconsin (32.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 71.3 (52nd)

Pass Rate – 33.96% (126th)

Graham Mertz ($6,200) is one of the worst quarterbacks in the country in a slower, run-heavy offense. He has negative-15 yards rushing this year and averages just 143.2 as a passer on 21.3 attempts. He has no upside, and the matchup is not particularly good here.

Chez Mellusi went down with an injury to a backfield that already lost Isaac Guerendo and Jalen Berger. This puts 17-year-old freshman Braelon Allen ($8,200) in the driver’s seat for additional opportunities against a Northwestern defense allowing over 250 yards rushing per game. Allen already has at least 15 carries in three of Wisconsin’s last three games. He is not very active as a pass catcher, but Wisconsin does not really use backs in the pass game or need to.

At receiver Wisconsin is mostly a situation to avoid as a low-volume passing attack. Danny Davis ($5,500) averages 41.3 yards per game on 4.7 targets, but he is flat out too expensive for this role. Kendric Pryor ($4,100) and Jake Ferguson ($3,300) average 4.3 and 4.1 targets respectively as the WR2 and tight end. Neither are particularly strong options here against Northwestern in a favorable game script for the run game.

Rutgers vs. Indiana

Rutgers (18.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 73.6 (33rd)

Pass Rate – 46.18% (72nd)

Noah Vedral ($5,300) continues to come in and out of games with injuries. He is questionable here. Vedral has solid mobility, with 226 yards on the ground this year. He leaves much to be desired as a passer with 164.8 yards on 26.2 attempts. Vedral only has two games over 200 yards passing this year. If Vedral misses this game, Rutgers could simply split snaps between Cole Snyder ($4,700) and Evan Simon ($4,600), making this a situation to avoid.

Rutgers continues to employ a running back by committee with Isaih Pacheco ($4,100), Kyle Monangai ($3,600) and Aaron Young ($3,000). These backs generally require positive game script to hit a ceiling and Rutgers is almost a touchdown underdog here. Pacheco would be the best option for those taking a stab on the group, but he only averages 56.5 total yards per game.

At receiver Rutgers lost Aron Cruickshank, but Bo Melton ($5,000) continues to play the WR1 role. He averages 60 yards per game on 8.5 targets and his target average has jumped to 10 without Cruickshank. Shameen Jones ($3,100) has also taken on a larger role, averaging 7.5 targets per game in his last four. He still only has 29 yards per game, but he plays enough to warrant consideration. Isaiah Washington ($3,200) is the seldom used WR3, averaging 2.1 targets per game.

Indiana (25 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 72.6 (42nd)

Pass Rate – 51.64% (37th)

Michael Penix ($4,700) has returned to practice and could potentially start this game. Penix is not mobile whatsoever, but he is easily Indiana’s top passer. Penix averages 187.8 yards per game on 32.6 attempts, but Indiana runs an up-tempo, pass-heavy scheme. Penix only has one 300-yard game this year and this game has a poor total. This makes him a GPP play at best. If Penix cannot go, Donaven McCulley ($4,900) looks likely to start again, providing a similar play in terms of DFS viability.

Stephen Carr ($5,300) looked to have sprained his ankle last week, but coach Tom Allen called him questionable for this week’s tilt against Indiana. When healthy, Carr typically handles a feature back workload, including 19 touches per game. In his absence, Chris Childers ($4,500) and Davion Ervin-Poindexter ($3,600) split the work. Overall, Childers out-touched Ervin-Poindexter 11-8, but Ervin-Poindexter handled the only two targets. Rutgers does allow 163.5 yards rushing per game, making one of these players a potential punt in the event that Carr misses the game.

At receiver Ty Fryfogle ($4,600) would greatly benefit from the return of Penix. On the year, Fryfogle is averaging just 49 yards per game on 8.4 targets. He is still the unquestioned top receiver, but Indiana’s inefficient offense hurts him. Behind him, tight end Peyton Hendershot ($4,600) ranks second on the team in targets. He averages 53.4 receiving yard per game on 5.6 targets. Miles Marshall ($3,200) is the WR2, with 24.6 yards per game on 3.7 targets. With D.J. Matthews injured, Indiana uses a rotation at the WR3 spot, while mixing in two tight end sets with A.J. Barner ($3,000). Outside of a flier on Fryfogle, this is not a great DFS situation.

West Virginia vs. Kansas State

West Virginia (20.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 68.2 (85th)

Pass Rate – 54.21% (22nd)

While Jarret Doege ($5,100) is still the starting quarterback of the West Virginia offense, the Mountaineers have begun deploying Garrett Greene ($5,000) as a situational dual threat. Green has 303 yards rushing this year, while Doege checks in with negative-100. Still, Doege is the primary passer, averaging 243.2 yards per game on 31.2 attempts. While West Virginia is a pass-heavy offense, they also play slow. With Kansas State on the other side, this game does not project for elevated play volume. Already a questionable play before the timeshare, Greene’s insertion into the offense renders Doege a GPP-only play.

Leddie Brown ($6,100) is coming off his worst performance of the season against Oklahoma State’s elite run defense. On the year, Brown averages 74 yards rushing and 18.3 yards receiving per game on 20.6 touches. Brown still looks like the team’s bell cow back, even though he ceded five carries to Tony Mathis ($3,000) last week. He is a volume-based contrarian option on tonight’s slate.

Isaish Esdale is expected to miss this game, narrowing opportunity in the West Virginia receiver room. Tight end Mike O’Laughlin is also out, leaving West Virginia to employ four wide receivers on most snaps. Winston Wright ($4,600) is the top option of the group, averaging 60.3 yards receiving per game on 6.7 targets. Bryce Ford-Wheaton ($4,700) is not far behind with 48.3 yards per game on 5.6 targets. Sam James ($3,800) and Sean Ryan ($3,300) are worse from a season-long perspective, but both worked into a full-time role without Esdale. The cheap receivers are dart throws worth considering, but this game still has a low total.

Kansas State (26.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 58.9 (126th)

Pass Rate – 45.44% (74th)

Kansas State continues to operate at a snail’s pace. However, they have increased their pass rate to 45.4% this year. Interestingly, Skylar Thompson ($6,100) is running much less than at other points in his career. Right now he has just 6 yards rushing on the year. While the added volume as a passer has helped Thompson, he still only averages 222.6 yards per game on 22.7 attempts. Thompson has one 300-yard game this year and another at 296. Still, Thompson has reached 240 yards on two other occasions. West Virginia allows 255.2 yards passing per game, making Thompson an outside consideration this week.

Deuce Vaughn ($9,700) is the do-it-all back for Kansas State, but he is extremely expensive here. Vaughn averages 96.8 yards rushing per game and 46.8 yards receiving per game on 22.9 touches. Vaughn leads Kansas State in targets by a margin of 14. Vaughn has one of the safest floors in college football, but his price forces lineups to make concessions elsewhere.

In the receiving game, Malik Knowles ($4,900) and Phillip Brooks ($4,000) are the top two options. Brooks was not targeted last week after coming into the game banged up, but he averages 41.1 yards and 4.3 targets per game. Knowles averages 37.9 yards on 3.9 targets, making neither particularly strong options here.

Maryland vs. Michigan State

Maryland (24.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 73.2 (35th)

Pass Rate – 57.68% (11th)

Taulia Tagovailoa ($5,900) operates Maryland’s pass-heavy up-tempo offense. He is not mobile whatsoever, with negative-23 cumulative yards this year. However, he averages 304 yards passing per game on 37.7 attempts. Michigan State does allow 350.9 yards passing per game, making Tagovailoa interesting here. He already has five games over 300 yards, including his two most recent games against Indiana and Penn State. This game has a 62.5-point total, making Tagovailoa one of the better punt plays on this slate.

Maryland has devolved into a direct 50/50 timeshare between Tayon Fleet-Davis ($5,100) and Challen Faamatau ($4,900). Faamtatau touched the ball 13 times to Fleet-Davis’ 12 touches last week. Both are active in the pass game, but both require positive game script to reach a ceiling. Michigan State plays solid run defense and Maryland is a two-touchdown underdog. Neither are particularly strong options.

At receiver Maryland lost Dontay Demus and Jeshaun Jones earlier this year. Rakim Jarrett ($4,500) has failed miserably as the replacement WR1. Jarrett continues to play every snap, but his target average has dropped to five in Maryland’s last four games, compared to his 6.2 target average on the year. Tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo ($4,200) popped up for 15 targets last week, despite participating in 54% of routes. He only averages 4.4 targets per game on the year. Marcus Fleming ($4,000) and Carlos Carriere ($4,700) are the WR2 and WR3, with 71% and 65% route rates respectively in Maryland’s most recent game. Fleming out-targeted Carriere 7-5 and appears to hold a narrow advantage. Maryland throws the ball at an extremely high rate, so taking a stab on one of these cheap receivers makes sense in this strong game environment.

Michigan State (38 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 66.1 (104th)

Pass Rate – 44.99% (79th)

Michigan State’s Payton Thorne ($7,000) also looks intriguing here behind a $7,000 price tag. Thorne is somewhat mobile, with 133 yards rushing this year. As a passer, he averages 240.3 per game on 27.1 attempts. Thorne only has a pair of 300-yard games this year, but he has another three over 260. With that said, he has been below 200 in four others as Michigan State has shown a willingness to ride the run when playing from ahead. This game environment could drive Thorne to a ceiling performance, putting him into play inside the mid-tier of quarterbacks.

Kenneth Walker ($8,900) continues to impress for Michigan State, averaging 147.6 yards rushing per game on 23.1 touches. Importantly, Walker has added a receiving floor in recent weeks, seeing exactly three targets in Michigan State’s last two games. Maryland allows over 160 yards rushing per game to opponents. Walker is expensive here, but the upside is clear in this strong game environment.

Jalen Nailor ($6,300) reportedly has a broken hand and did not travel for last week’s game. This makes Jayden Reed ($6,100) the clear alpha receiver. Reed averages 79.4 yards per game on 6.8 targets, but his targets jumped to 8.5 per game in Michigan State’s most recent four games. Behind him, Montorie Foster ($3,700) emerged as the WR2, running a route on 94% of dropbacks. Tre Mosley ($4,600) remained in his WR3 role, running a route on 69% of dropbacks. The two were targeted four and three times, respectively. At right end Connor Heyward ($3,000) also saw four targets, but he is listed as a running back on DraftKings. Reed and Foster are excellent plays from this passing attack.

UCF vs. SMU

UCF (26 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 66.2 (102nd)

Pass Rate – 44.91% (80th)

Dillon Gabriel still does not look ready to play and Mikey Keene ($6,400) has been a significant downgrade in his place. Gus Malzahn’s takeover has also showed UCF to a snail’s pace, while embracing the run. Keene is not mobile, with negative-25 yards this year and he struggles as a passer. He is completing 65% of his passes for 6.8 yards per attempt without a single 300-yard game. In fact, he only has two games over 200 yards, largely taking him out of play here.

With UCF’s increased run rate, Isaiah Bowser ($6,300) is increasingly interesting. Bowser averages 19 touches per game, with most of the big games frontloaded to the beginning of the season. Bowser still has at least 15 touches in three straight games and could be viable in GPPs. He still cedes 9.7 touches per game to Johnny Richardson ($4,600), who has at least eight touches in back-to-back games for UCF. Richardson is not really viable himself, but he steals enough work to render Bowser a GPP-only play.

At receiver Jaylon Robinson ($5,900) continues to battle a knee injury. He allegedly practiced in full this week and could be nearing a return. Robinson has functioned as the WR1 when healthy, averaging 78 yards and 5.7 targets per game. However, Keene likely causes that to decrease. Ryan O’Keefe ($7,200) has been the WR1 in his place, averaging 66.3 yards on 8.6 targets. That number has jumped to 9.5 per game without Robinson. Brandon Johnson ($4,800) has been the WR2 without Robinson, but this has only led to 43.6 yards on 5.2 targets per game. His average has fallen to four in UCF’s four most recent games. Alec Holler ($3,300) will hold down the tight end spot, but he only sees 23 targets per game. Only O’Keefe and Johnson are worth targeting and both a touch too expensive.

SMU (33.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 73.9 (30th)

Pass Rate – 52.45% (33rd)

SMU runs an explosive up-tempo, pass-heavy offense. To this point, Oklahoma transfer Tanner Mordecai ($8,700) has led the offense. He is mobile, with 158 yards this year and he averages 320.6 as a passer on 36.4 attempts. Despite his success, the coaching staff said freshman Preston Stone ($4,500) would get some snaps this week. One of the program’s highest recruits in recent memory, SMU is likely trying to prevent a transfer. Either way, it muddies the situation for DFS. Mordecai is a GPP only play based on these rumors.

Ulysses Bentley ($3,700) has been banged up all season and again failed to log a carry. Bentley went through warmups, suggesting a short absence. However, his involvement is pure guesswork at this time. At worth Tre Siggers ($5,600) will form a 50/50 committee with Bentley and at best he will handle a majority of the workload. On the year, Siggers averages 63.3 yards rushing per game on 15.4 touches. While inefficient, Siggers only cedes a handful of carries to Tyler Lavine ($3,400) when Bentley misses time. Siggers is in play against a UCF run defense that allows over 170 yards per game.

SMU’s elite passing attacks keeps multiple options viable here. Danny Gray ($7,100) leads the team with 86.7 yards per game on 7.7 targets. Behind him, Rashee Rice ($5,700) averages 59.8 yards on 6.3 targets himself. Rice has a slight edge in SMU’s four most recent games, averaging eight to Gray’s 7.3. The WR3 is oft-injured Reggie Roberson ($4,800). Roberson averages 53.7 yards per game on 5.6 targets but has not seen more than seven targets in a game in four straight. His four-game average sits at 5.3, which comes in behind receiving tight end Grant Calcaterra ($4,300). Calcaterra does not have as much upside with a 42.3 yardage average, but his target volume has been on par, if not more consistent than Roberson in recent weeks.

Georgia vs. Tennessee

Georgia (37.75 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 62.7 (122nd)

Pass Rate – 39.18% (115th)

Stetson Bennett ($7,500) won the starting job over J.T. Daniels ($7,300) when Daniels went down with an injury. Now the two are healthy and splitting snaps in blowouts. Bennett is the superior rusher with 193 yards on the year to Daniels’ negative-15. However, both have been excellent as passers. Generally a low-volume, run-heavy offense, the potential for a timeshare sucks any value that this quarterback situation may have had. Until a clear starter appears, this is a situation to avoid.

With Kendall Milton out for the foreseeable future with a knee injury, Georgia’s backfield has been reduced to a three-man committee. Zamir White ($6,800) handles most of the work on the ground, averaging 12.1 touches per game, while James Cook ($5,900) takes the pass game work. Kenny McIntosh ($3,700) serves as a change of pace and occasionally Daijun Edwards ($3,200) receives a carry here and there. Georgia has a solid team total, but the rotation makes these backs exceedingly risky, especially at their elevated prices this week.

Georgia’s group of pass catchers is almost at full strength, meaning this is also a rotation. Brock Bowers ($5,800) is the leader, but he has not participated in more than 57% of routes in two straight games. Adonai Mitchell ($3,500) has operated as the WR1 and looks most likely to retain his role. However, the addition of Jermaine Burton ($5,200) and Kearis Jackson ($3,800) to a group already consisting of Ladd McConkey ($4,200), Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint ($3,000) and Darnell Washington ($3,300) renders the entire group unusable outside of the largest of GPPs. Mitchell is the best option for those taking this approach.

Tennessee (17.25 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 78.2 (12th)

Pass Rate – 41.53% (108th)

Virginia Tech transfer Hendon Hooker ($6,500) gets his toughest test of the year against Georgia’s buzz saw defense. Hooker has been solid in all facets of the game, averaging 210.8 yards passing per game on 20.9 attempts. He also has 457 cumulative yards rushing. While Hooker hit 300 yards against Kentucky and has not fallen below 200 since Tennessee Tech, a ceiling looks unlikely against Georgia. He is a risky GPP play at best in this matchup.

Tennessee’s backfield has devolved into a three-way committee, featuring Tiyon Evans ($4,400), Jabari Smalls ($4,800) and Jaylen Wright ($3,200). With Georgia on deck, none of them are strong plays.

At receiver Tennessee has found an WR1 in Cedric Tillman ($5,400). He only averages 58.3 yards per game, but his targets have jumped to 7.5 per game in Tennessee’s last four contest. USC transfer Velus Jones ($4,600) is still heavily involved, averaging 61.4 yards per game on 5.3 targets. He also averages 6.5 targets per game in Tennessee’s last four games. JaVonta Payton ($3,900) rounds out the group with 3.5 targets per game in Tennessee’s last three. Jacob Warren ($3,400) plays tight end, but none of these plays are worth getting to against Georgia on a 13-game slate.

Purdue vs. Ohio State

Purdue (20.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 79.1 (8th)

Pass Rate – 60.25% (7th)

An anomaly in the Big Ten West, Purdue ranks top 10 in pass rate and pace of play. Aidan O’Connell ($5,400) is not mobile whatsoever, with negative-105 yards rushing. However, he averages 260.5 yards passing on 33.8 attempts per game. With this volume, O’Connell has three 300-yard games in his last five starts, including a 536-yard performance against Michigan State last weekend. Even in his poor performances, O’Connell has reached 200 yards. While the passing numbers are great, O’Connell is reliant on the 300-yard bonus to overcome his negative rushing numbers. This game has an awesome total, but Purdue is a major underdog, limiting O’Connell to GPPs.

With Zander Horvath ($3,300) coming back from injury, Purdue is a two-man committee featuring Horvath and King Doerue ($4,700). Since the return, Doerue has 34 touches to Horvath’s 26. Neither has been particularly efficient and they face a strong Ohio State run defense as nearly three touchdown underdogs. Horvath is cheap enough for a flier in tournaments.

At receiver David Bell ($6,700) is a complete alpha. He averages 124.4 yards per game on 11.4 targets. This average has jumped to 13 in Purdue’s last four as well. Bell is cheap enough to consider behind Purdue’s high play volume and elevated pass rate. Their tight end Payne Durham went down with an injury, elevating Milton Wright ($4,000) and Jackson Anthrop ($4,200). Both exceeded 70% of the routes and saw six targets in Purdue’s most recent game. Garrett Miller ($3,300) replaced Durham with a 65% route rate and eight targets in Purdue’s last game. He is viable near the stone minimum. While T.J. Sheffield ($3,000) and Broc Thompson ($3,200) rotate onto the field occasionally, focusing on the top four options makes the most sense here.

Ohio State (40.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 69.4 (74th)

Pass Rate – 52.48% (32nd)

After a somewhat slow start to the year, C.J. Stroud ($9,400) has emerged as one of the country’s premier quarterbacks. Stroud only has 5 yards rushing this year, but he averages 334.4 yards passing per game on 34.3 attempts. This includes five games over 300 yards passing. Purdue plays solid defense overall, but Ohio State’s 40.5-point implied team total suggests that Stroud can overcome the matchup here. Stroud is an excellent pay up option.

At running back Ohio State has one of the top young backs in the country in TreVeyon Henderson ($8,500). Henderson now has at least 27 touches in back-to-back games as Miyan Williams ($3,600) and Master Teague ($3,000) have been completely phased out of the offense. Purdue plays middling run defense, but Henderson’s efficiency and volume are too strong to outright fade. He can be played across formats.

A surprise inactive last week, Garrett Wilson ($6,900) returned to practice for Ohio State. Wilson averages 85.9 yards per game on 8.3 targets per game, making him an excellent price-adjusted play here. Chris Olave ($6,600) has taken a backseat in recent weeks, but he still averages 69.2 yards on 7.8 targets per game himself. With Olave taking a step back, Jaxson Smith-Njigba ($7,800) has taken a major step forward, including his 18-target game last week without Wilson. Smith-Njigba now leads the team with 98.7 yards per game on 7.1 targets. While Olave likely is the WR1, Smith-Njigba is still live in tournaments.

Minnesota vs. Iowa

Minnesota (15.25 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 67.0 (98th)

Pass Rate – 31.51% (127th)

Tanner Morgan ($5,200) plays in a low-volume, run-heavy offense and provides very little mobility behind his cumulative 30 yards rushing this year. As a passer, Morgan averages 150.7 yards per game on 19.1 attempts. He is not an option here.

After losing, Mohamed Ibrahim, Trey Potts, and Bryce Williams, Minnesota is on their fourth string running back in Ky Thomas ($6,900). Thomas out-touched four-star freshman Mar’Keise Irving ($5,000) 21-5 in Minnesota’s most recent game. While the matchup is tough and the total is low, Minnesota feeds their running backs at one of the highest rates in the country. Thomas is a solid price-adjusted play based on volume here.

With Minnesota running at such a high rate, most of the pass catchers are low floor plays. Chris Autman-Bell ($4,100) is the WR1, with Mike Brown-Stephen ($3,600) behind him as the WR2. Autman-Bell averages 4.9 targets per game to Brown-Stephens’ 2.9. With everyone healthy, Minnesota rotates Dylan Wright ($3,400) and Daniel Jackson ($3,300) as the WR3. None are particularly strong options in a low-volume passing attack and a tough matchup.

Iowa (21.75 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 69.1 (77th)

Pass Rate – 47.11% (68th)

Even worse than Morgan, Spencer Petras ($5,000) has negative-105 yards rushing this year, while averaging 158.1 yards passing on 24.6 attempts. Petras is banged up and still has not practiced this week. If he cannot go, Alex Padilla ($4,900) would get the start. It would be a surprise if he plays worse than Petras, but this situation should not be targeted either way.

One of the least efficient rushing attacks in the country, Iowa uses Tyler Goodson ($7,300) as their lead back. Goodson averages an inefficient 83.7 rushing and 22.9 yards receiving per game on 21.9 touches. With Ivory Kelly-Martin getting hurt, Gavin Williams ($3,000) has emerged as the change of pace back. He saw 10 carries in Iowa’s most recent game, but Goodson is the back to target. This is also a tough matchup, but Goodson’s volume warrants consideration in GPPs.

Like Minnesota, Iowa does not provide much upside in the pass game. Tight end, Sam LaPorta ($4,400) leads the team with 43.4 yards per game on 5.8 targets per game. However, Keagan Johnson ($3,900) has taken a major step forward with a 90+% route rate in back-to-back weeks. He also has 15 targets in that span, clearly working ahead of Nico Ragaini ($3,500), Tyrone Tracy ($3,200) and Charlie Jones ($3,000). With that group rotating snaps, finding the extra salary to get Johnson makes the most sense. None of these players offer upside, but Johnson is cheap enough to warrant consideration in GPPs.

Miami vs. Florida State

Miami (31.75 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 76.6 (18th)

Pass Rate – 54.16% (23rd)

Originally Miami’s third string quarterback, Tyler Van Dyke ($8,000) has become an efficient starter for the Hurricanes. Van Dyke is somewhat mobile, with 40 yards in limited starts this year. He also averages 266.3 yards per game on 27.9 attempts after a slow start. Since then, he has eclipsed 325 yards in three straight games against legitimate opponents. Miami plays pass-heavy, up-tempo football, giving Van Dyke an excellent floor/ceiling combination here.

Similar to quarterback, Miami also lost Cam’Ron Harris and Donald Chaney for the year at running back. After serving a four-game suspension, Jaylan Knighton ($7,900) has emerged as Miami’s feature back. Knighton now averages 90.8 rushing and 33.4 yards receiving per game on 23.6 touches. Knighton’s workload has rivaled some of the best backs in the country and now he faces a weaker Florida State defense in a solid game environment.

Oklahoma transfer Charleston Rambo ($8,000) operates as Miami’s lead receiver. He averages 94.8 yards per game on 9.2 targets. Rambo has not seen fewer than nine targets in any of Miami’s last four games. Behind him, Keyshawn Smith ($5,100) has worked ahead of Mike Harley ($4,200), who now rotates with Xavier Restrepo ($3,300). Smith averages 7.5 targets per game in Miami’s last four making him a nice secondary piece to the passing attack. For those punting, tight end Will Mallory ($3,400) plays a consistent role in the offense, averaging 3.5 targets per game in their last four. While expensive, the Miami stacks present clear upside this week.

Florida State (29.25 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 67.1 (96th)

Pass Rate – 44.69% (83rd)

Jordan Travis ($6,900) returned to practice after missing last week’s game. Travis is an excellent rusher with 340 yards this year. As a passer, he leaves much to be desired, averaging 117.7 yards per game on 15 attempts. With that said, Mckenzie Milton ($6,600) has not been any better starting in his place. Milton is not mobile whatsoever and he completed just 50% of his passes for 5.2 yards per attempt in Florida State’s most recent game. Miami does allow 282.4 yards passing per game, but Travis would be a much better option if he is healthy enough to start.

At running back Jashaun Corbin ($7,000) has increasing worked ahead of Treshaun Ward ($3,800). Last week, Corbin saw 18 touches to Ward’s six. While this will always be a timeshare to some degree, Corbin’s increased involvement bodes well against a middling Miami defense on the other side. Corbin is interesting for GPPs, but still a bit expensive for his role in the backfield.

At receiver Kansas transfer Andrew Parchment ($3,600) appears out of the doghouse, leading the team with seven targets. He still only participated in 57% of the routes, which ranked behind Ontaria Wilson ($3,900) and Keyshawn Helton ($4,300). Wilson has the highest route rate at 86%, but he only averages 3.3 targets per game over Florida State’s last four. Helton averages four himself, which leaves much to be desired. Malik McClain ($3,200) popped up for six targets last week, but he still is not playing a full-time role. The pass game is one to avoid for the most part and even more so if Travis starts.

Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss

Texas A&M (28.75 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 66.8 (99th)

Pass Rate – 47.75% (63rd)

Texas A&M continues to use Zach Calzada ($6,400) as a game manager in a slower, run heavier offense. Calzada does not have strong mobility, with 34 yards this year. He also averages on 172.9 as a passer on 26.4 attempts per game. Ole Miss does not have a great defense, but their strength comes against the pass. Calzada is a low upside option even at a cheap price.

In the run game, Isaiah Spiller ($8,300) worked ahead of Devon Achane ($6,700) again after the pair appeared to be trending towards a 50/50 timeshare. Spiller saw 22 touches to Achane’s 11. Both are extremely efficient backs and exploit an Ole Miss defense allowing over 200 yards per game to opposing backs. Spiller is an excellent play here, already averaging 97.6 rushing and 20.2 yards receiving on 19 touches per game. Achane is also playable in GPPs behind his 13.1 touches.

At receiver tight end Jalen Wydermyer ($6,100) currently leads the team with 45.1 yards per game on 6.2 targets. Ainias Smith ($6,700) is not far behind with 43.4 yards per game on 6.1 targets. Both are outside considerations here. The team’s WR2 is Jalen Preston ($5,000) with a 90% route rate last week. Demond Demas ($5,100) is technically the WR3 on a 62% route rate, but he splits time with a slew of secondary receivers like Caleb Chapman ($5,700). Wydermyer and Preston are cheap enough to avoid the other ancillary receivers.

Ole Miss (26.75 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 78.8 (10th)

Pass Rate – 42.22% (102nd)

Banged up through much of the year, Matt Corral ($9,500) continues to lead Ole Miss without his top two pass catchers. Corral is an excellent dual threat, with 528 yards this year. He also averages 281.2 as a passer on 30.9 attempts in Ole Miss’ up-tempo offense. Texas A&M plays elite defense overall, depressing the total here. However, Corral is involved enough in all facets of the game to deserve consideration here.

At running back Ole Miss uses a three-way timeshare consisting of Jerrion Ealy ($6,500), Snoop Conner ($6,100) and Henry Parrish ($5,800). The backfield ebbs and flows, depending on who has the hot hand. This is a tough matchup, making them all risky GPP plays.

At receiver Ole Miss already lost Jonathan Mingo and Dontario Drummond. Even their next man up, Braylon Sanders ($6,000) only participated in 39% of routes as he works his way back from an injury. That thrust John Rhys Plumlee ($5,500), Dannis Jackson ($6,100) and Jahcour Pearson ($5,500) into three wide sets. It appears Pearson may have lost favor with the offense and could lose additional snaps to Sanders. Jackson led the group with nine targets, but Rhys Plumlee saw seven and an additional two carries on the ground. Casey Kelly ($5,200) continues to play every snap without Chase Rogers, but he failed to see a target after a nine-target game two weeks ago. All of the main four Ole miss pass catchers are playable at cheap prices.

North Carolina State vs. Wake Forest

North Carolina State (32 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 71.2 (55th)

Pass Rate – 53.86% (25th)

Devin Leary ($10,00) will quarterback North Carolina State in one of their better matchups of the year against Wake Forest. Leary is not mobile whatsoever, with negative-42 yards rushing on the year. As a passer, he benefits from a pass-heavy scheme. He currently averages 275.4 yards per game on 35.2 attempts. Leary is expensive for his lack of a role in the run game, but he has been above 300 yards four times this year, with no games below 232.

At running back Zonovan Knight ($6,000) is locked into a 50/50 timeshare with Ricky Person ($6,600). Both backs have exactly 132 touches this year, but Knight continues to dwarf Person in terms of efficiency. Last week, Knight out-touched Person 19-12, potential pointing to a shift in the backfield. Wake Forest allows 229.5 yards rushing per game, making his increased involvement worth gambling on.

North Carolina State has devolved into a nasty receiver rotation outside of Emeka Emezie ($6,800) who retained an 83% route rate. Devin Carter ($6,400), Thayer Thomas ($7,100) and Porter Rooks ($5,600) all participated between 44% and 64% of the routes last week, removing any semblance of consistency from the offense. rooks led the team in targets last week with six. However, Emezie is the best bet here behind his 61.1 yards on 6.9 targets per game this year. The rest are purely GPP dart throws.

Wake Forest (34.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 78.0 (14th)

Pass Rate – 47.28% (67th)

Sam Hartman ($11,000 has taken a major step forward this year at quarterback for Wake Forest. Hartman has displayed increased mobility, with 286 yards rushing. He also averages 319.6 as a passer on 33.4 attempts in Wake Forest’s up-tempo, pass-heavy scheme. North Carolina State plays solid defense, but Hartman has notched over 300 yards in five straight games. He has not fallen below 240 since Week 1. Even at an elevated price, he deserves consideration in a strong game environment.

At running back Wake Forest utilizes a three-man rotation consisting of Christian Beal-Smith ($6,500), Justice Ellison ($6,200) and Christian Turner ($5,600). Beal-Smith leads the group with 59.2 yards per game on 12.7 touches, but none of them provide consistency. Beal-Smith did leave last week’s game with an injury and looks questionable here. Ellison could become playable if Beal-Smith misses time. However, all three are extremely risky plays, given full health.

At receiver Jaquarii Roberson ($9,000) continues to operate as a straight alpha alongside fellow stud A.T. Perry ($9,200). Both receivers have exactly 848 yards hit year, but Roberson holds a 75-66 target edge. While Perry has been more explosive, Roberson is a slightly better play here based on volume. Taylor Morin ($6,500) plays the WR3 and has eclipsed 70% of the routes in two of Wake Forest’s last three games. Donald Stewart ($5,000) and Ke’Shawn Williams ($5,400) only participated in 42% and 22% of the routes respectively last week. Morin only averages 3.8 targets per game, but he is the clear WR3 and a potential leverage spot for GPPs.

Notre Dame vs. Virginia

Notre Dame (34.25 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 72.2 (46th)

Pass Rate – 50.15% (47th)

Notre Dame uses a two-quarterback system with Jack Coan ($7,500) handling all of the passing and Tyler Buchner ($5,400) siphoning off a handful of snaps for gadget plays. Buchner already has 203 yards rushing to Coan’s negative-74. Coan is the pure pocket passer, but he only has 208.7 yards per game on 26.8 attempts. Even against Virginia’s porous defense, it is hard to target a Notre Dame quarterback playing reduced snaps.

At running back Kyren Williams ($9,700) continues to operate as a bell-cow. He averages 87.8 yards rushing per game and 32.6 yards receiving per game on 21.8 touches. He has reached at least 24 touches in four straight games, including an absurd pass game role. Williams averages five targets per game in Notre Dame’s last four. Logan Diggs ($5,200) is the change of pace with Chris Tyree ($4,800) banged up. Williams is a solid play here.

Avery Davis is out for the year. Michael Mayer ($6,300) should continue to operate as the team’s leading receiver. He averages 61.6 yards per game on 7.9 targets. However, his target average sits at 5.7 over Notre Dame’s last three games. Kevin Austin ($7,600) and Braden Lenzy ($5,300) will now take on larger roles without Davis. Austin averages 6.2 targets per game to Lenzy’s 3.8. It looks like some combination of Lorenzo Styles ($4,900) and Deion Colzie ($4,500) will replace Davis. Mayer is the best price-adjusted option here and viable in DFS here.

Virginia (29.75 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 80.1 (6th)

Pass Rate – 64.12% (5th)

Last week’s BYU game was a blood bath for Virginia. Brennan Armstrong (10,800) went down with an injury and is a game-time decision here. Armstrong is an excellent dual-threat quarterback with 271 yards rushing already this year. He also benefits from a top 10 team in terms of pass rate and tempo this year. Armstrong averages 393.2 yards passing per game on 45.2 attempts. If he misses time, Jay Woolfolk ($4,000) would start and become a stone lock, operating this offense. Unfortunately, this game is a late kick, throwing a wrench into this potential play.

At running back Wayne Taulapapa ($5,600) also left Virginia’s game against BYU. With Mike Hollins ($5,000) already out, Devin Darrington ($5,200) handled some extra work. There is a scenario where Darrington is the only healthy back and could be worth a look. Otherwise, this backfield is a weekly fade.

Making matters worse, Billy Kemp ($7,300) also went down with an injury. Kemp averages 60.8 yards per game on 9.2 targets and will enter this week as a game-time decision. Dontayvion Wicks ($8,500) will likely be asked to take on a larger role. Wicks already averages 108 yards per game on 7.4 targets, but more volume could be in store. Keytaon Thompson ($7,700) is also an excellent play. He averages 73.7 yards per game on 8.4 targets, while receiving 32 carries as a rusher this year. Ra’Shaun Henry ($5,600) is typically the WR4 for Virginia, but this is an important position. He averages 53.9 yards per game on 5.7 targets. Jelani Woods ($6,200) will hold down tight end, averaging 55.8 yards per game on 5.8 targets himself. If Kemp misses, Grant Misch ($4,200) could be the biggest beneficiary. He ran a route on over 60% of dropbacks and saw four targets. Virginia will use both tight ends as pure receivers, so the position designation does not mean as much here. Virginia has plenty of late new, but most of the skill position players are viable for DFS here.

Arkansas vs. LSU

Arkansas (30.25 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 72.8 (39th)

Pass Rate – 36.28% (125th)

K.J. Jefferson ($9,400) is an excellent dual-threat quarterback for Arkansas with 433 cumulative yards rushing this year. Jefferson only throws for 204.9 yards per game on 22.3 attempts in an extremely run-heavy scheme. Jefferson only has a pair of 300-yard games this year, while falling below 200 yards in five others. His mobility gives him a solid floor, but the upside is questionable even against a poor LSU defense.

At running back for Arkansas, Dominique Johnson ($6,100) popped up for an 18-touch game last week after Trelon Smith ($6,000) and Raheim Sanders ($5,800) previously split the backfield. None of these backs average over 11 touches per game, but Johnson’s recent explosion could be a sign of additional work to come. This has the potential to be a small sample trap, but LSU allows over 160 rushing yard per game. In a solid matchup, Johnson can be used in GPPs.

Arkansas has one of the best receivers in the country in Treylon Burks ($8,800). Burks only averages 88.3 yards per game on 7.4 targets in Arkansas’ low-volume passing attack. However, competitive games or even a single big play can drive him to an elite score. Behind him, there is very little to like. Tyson Morris ($5,600) is the WR2, but he only averages 2.6 targets per game. This is a Burks or bust situation in the Arkansas passing attack.

LSU (28.75 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 70.6 (60th)

Pass Rate – 54.69% (19th)

Max Johnson ($8,000) is the starter in a pass-heavy LSU offense. Johnson’s mobility has been reduced to negative-18 yards and he tries to play hero ball in negative game script. Johnson averages an inefficient 240.3 yards passing per game on 33 attempts. Johnson does have a pair of 300-yard passing games this year, but he has struggled mightily of late. He has not eclipsed 200 yards in three straight games. There is some upside, but Johnson is an increasing risk of an in-game benching.

After struggling to find volume to begin the year, Tyrion Davis-Price ($7,200) has operated as a true feature back for LSU over the last four games. He does not have any semblance of a pass game role, but Davis-Price has at least 20 carries in three of LSU’s last four games. Arkansas has been giving on the ground, allowing 161.6 yards rushing per game. Davis-Price is a GPP play to consider, behind a sneaky implied team total.

LSU lost Kayshon Boutte for the year, but their new receiving corps is starting to take form. Jack Bech ($5,400) is a tight end receiver hybrid. He plays alongside Jaray Jenkins ($6,300) and Brian Thomas ($5,600), with Malik Nabers ($5,300) on the field for a 65% route rate last week as the WR3. Bech led the team with eight targets last week and averages 5.9 per game. He is still the safest play here. Jenkins averages 4.8 targets per game over LSU’s last four games and saw seven last week. Thomas has been banged up, but he also averages four targets per game in LSU’s last four. Bech is the best play here.

TCU vs. Oklahoma State

TCU (20.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 68.5 (82nd)

Pass Rate – 43.07% (91st)

Chandler Morris ($9,000) earned the starting quarterback job over Max Duggan ($7,000) last week and led TCU to an upset victory over Baylor. Morris has excellent mobility, with 108 yards on the ground this year and 70 of that coming against Baylor. He also completed 71% of his passes for 461 yards and a pair of scores, showing upside Duggan has never displayed in his career. Morris gets another tough matchup here, but there is a chance he is simply a great quarterback. He is viable in GPPs.

TCU will again be without Zach Evans against Oklahoma State. Exacerbating issues, Kendre Miller ($6,300) also went down in TCU’s last game. He enters Week 11 with the questionable tag. With Miller going down, Emari Demercado ($5,700) jumped up for 19 carries and four targets in TCU’s offensive explosion against Baylor. If Miller misses time, Demercado would be a strong price-adjusted play, despite a tough matchup.

TCU still uses Quentin Johnson ($8,400) as the teams lead receiver. He averages 75.9 yards per game on seven targets. This number has jumped to eight per game in TCU’s last four contests. From there, the Horned Frogs have somewhat narrowed their receiver rotation. Derius Davis ($6,400), Taye Barber ($6,100) and Quincy Brown ($4,900) participated in 79%, 68% and 68% of routes, respectively. Their target counts were seven, eight and six, putting all in play with a potential quarterback upgrade in a game with a decent total.

Oklahoma State (34 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 73.8 (32nd)

Pass Rate – 38.64% (117th)

Spencer Sanders ($8,800) is a pure game manager for Oklahoma State. He has solid mobility, with 316 yards rushing. However, he only averages 190.4 as a passer on 25.3 attempts per game. Sanders only has a single 300-yard game this year and two games above 200 yards. He provides a floor with his legs, but the ceiling simply is not there outside of an outlier performance.

At running back Jaylen Warren ($8,400) continues to operate as Oklahoma State’s lead back. He only has 25 combined carries over the last two weeks as Oklahoma State demolished Kansas and West Virginia. On the year, Warren averages 102.9 rushing and 17.7 yards receiving per game on 23.3 touches. Warren faces a TCU defense allowing 219.2 yards rushing per game. At his egregious price, Warren is a strong consideration in all formats.

Tay Martin ($8,500) is Oklahoma State’s top receiver, followed by Brennan Presley ($6,600). Martin averages 7.8 targets over Oklahoma State’s last four, compared to six for Presley. Martin is more dynamic with 592 yards to Presley’s 356 as well. Oklahoma State rotated Bryson Green ($5,500), Jaden Bray ($5,400) and Blaine Green ($5,200) as their WR3 last week. TCU plays poor defense across the board, but focusing on Martin and Presley looks like the most profitable strategy for those stacking Oklahoma State’s passing attack.


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Alex Baker, the No. 1 DFS player in the world, developed and maintains the DFS CFB ownership projections for DraftKings. Check out our industry-leading CFB DFS projections for FanDuel. Looking for more college football DFS and the best college football DFS advice?

Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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