College Football National Championship Preview

College Football National Championship Preview

Only one game remains and it’s the big one : as the College Football National Championship is set to Kickoff Monday Night. This article is going to breakdown both teams and discuss what we are seeing from a betting perspective. If you haven’t gotten into sports betting, or are just looking to learn make sure to check out some of the Evergreen content articles and Videos on the Awesemo.com YouTube homepage.

Clemson Tigers vs Alabama Crimson Tide

Spread: Alabama -5.5  

Over/Under: 59

Moneyline: Clemson +170, Alabama -200

Quick Trends

The line opened at Alabama -7 and despite taking roughly 60% of the tickets the line actually has dropped slightly to Bama now -5.5. This is something to take note of as it may be a situation of reverse line movement, which we want to identify when we can. If you are unfamiliar with the term, check out this RLM Article that breaks down the concept and shows some examples of how we can apply RLM to our advantage. The O/U seems to be holding right around 59 after an opening of 60 at most places I saw, so not a huge move there.

Clemson dismantled Notre Dame in the semi’s and really just looked like they were on a different level than the Fighting Irish. The Tigers sit at 14-0 after blowing thru the ACC schedule, with Syracuse being the one game they looked most vulnerable against. Clemson is experienced in this format having been in the playoff in the past 3 years, all with games vs Alabama. They lost last year in the Semi’s to the Crimson Tide, won the National Championship with Deshaun Watson in 2016, and lost in the National Championship Back in 2015.

Alabama has been the favorite the entire year like Clemson and are looking to go 15-0 and wire to wire which would be quite a feat. Georgia was their lone tough game in the SEC Championship, but Jalen Hurts found a way to rescue the Tide when it seemed like it was all over. They are looking to win their 3rd National Championship in 4 years, so obviously they also have plenty of experience when it comes to appearances in the College Football Playoff.

Clemson outlook

As I mentioned just above Clemson steamrolled Notre Dame, and since Trevor Lawrence fully took over, they have gone to a different level. The Freshman QB rarely makes mistakes, never seems rattled, and leans on Etienne in the backfield to take the pressure off and establish that run game. Clemson sports the best defensive line in the country and maybe one of the best all time units, even without Dexter Lawrence who is suspended. They showed no signs of weakness upfront vs ND, and that is the key Monday night against Tua and the high-powered Alabama offense.

On the outside Tee Higgins and Ross are both big play weapons and Clemson will need to pick its spots and take some shots as running right at Alabama rarely if ever works. If there is a weakness on Clemson it would have to be the secondary, which if you have time can be exploited. The problem is most teams do not have time since the pass rush is insanely good and that again seems like the key to this one in determining a winner.

Alabama outlook

Alabama’s biggest test was which QB to go with and lead this juggernaut team. They decided on Tua and somehow still convinced Jalen Hurts to stay and that came up huge against Georgia and maybe saved the season. Tua’s ankle seems fine, and against Oklahoma they exploded for a 28-0 lead before sloppily letting Oklahoma claw back and make the game respectable on the scoreboard. Alabama didn’t look too sharp against the Sooners, but if they clean up the penalties and mistakes its going to be a tall task to beat this team. They have 3 RB’s all who are key contributors, a stable of WR’s, and obviously an Alabama like defense that is one of the tougher units in the country. The key to me is can they avoid turnovers, and force Trevor Lawrence to do more than just manage the game. We really haven’t seen Lawrence be pushed late in the 4th quarter and Bama I’m sure wants to make the young freshman have to carry the team.

My outlook

I cannot wait to see this one as it seems like it has been a Clemson vs Bama collision course throughout the entire year. Clemson really seemed to hit their stride late in the year and have show no signs of letting up, while Bama hasn’t looked as invincible as of late even though they have been facing some stiff competition. As previously noted I think Clemson winning the line of scrimmage is the x factor and I believe they will which will force Tua to have to be mobile and throw on the run. The second key is can they do enough around Lawrence to not make him press and that is going to come down to not turning the ball over, getting Etienne established and making no mistakes on special teams. With this spread having some RLM that makes me like Clemson even more and I will take the points as well as the Moneyline for the Tigers, as I think they win this game outright.

Clemson ML +170, Clemson +5.5

Good Luck, any questions find me in the Premium Awesemo Slack or on Twitter @JazzrazDFS.

Author
Josh is Contributor for Stokastic.com where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections for soccer. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Stokastic's Premium Chalkboard. You can contact Josh by emailing [email protected].

Stokastic +

Premium Data and Tools
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims MLB
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Top Stack %s
MLB Data Central
FREE DATA
SoRare MLB Rankings
DraftKings Night Owl
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
MLB Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
MLB Discord Server
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Ownership Projections
PREMIUM TOOLS
Fantasy Cruncher (ADD-ON)
NHL Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
NHL Discord Server
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims PGA
PREMIUM DATA
Ownership Projections
Top Golfers Tool
PGA Tournament Models
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
PGA Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
PGA Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Drivers Tool
NASCAR Discord Server
NASCAR Fantasy Cruncher
USFL Projections
USFL Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Fighters Tool
MMA Discord Server
MMA Fantasy Cruncher
NFL Betting Tools
Stokastic Discord Server
Best Ball
Best Ball Rankings
Best Ball Stat Projections
Stokastic Discord Server
Season Long Fantasy (Coming Soon)

DFS Winners from the Stokastic Community

Subscribe to the Stokastic newsletter

DFS advice, exciting promos, and the best bets straight to your inbox

Stokastic.com - Daily Fantasy Sports and Sports Betting Data, Tools, & Analytics

Please play responsibly. Only customers 21 and over are permitted to play. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.