Another Friday slate is upon us and we have four games to breakdown. The season is rolling along and we are in conference play across the CFB landscape. Looking at this four-game slate, we see a few ranked teams in play including Ohio State, who is a national title contender.
This article is going to be a hybrid and will touch upon the games in general, the upcoming Friday night DFS slate, and the betting markets for the teams in action. Each section will highlight a few names, teams or games to keep an eye on for this Friday night slate in CFB.
Games on Slate
We have a four-game slate to breakdown, and as I mentioned, these games are mostly expected to stay close. We have one ACC, one CUSA, one Mountain West, and one Big Ten matchup so we get a taste of several conferences across the country.
Marshall at Florida Atlantic -5.5, O/U 59.5
This is the highest over/under on the slate, but that isn’t saying much as it is still sub-60. Marshall sits at 3-3 on the season and relies on a quality rushing attack to get the job done. So far in 2019 they sit top 20 in rushing yards per attempt and clearly they want to try and get a lead and lean on this rushing attack. Their quarterback, Isaiah Green, is a dual threat which also adds to the rushing upside this team possesses.
On the FAU side, they sit at 4-2 on the year and Lane Kiffin has them playing quality football. Quarterback Chris Robison has looked good at times this year and comes into the game with 13 touchdowns to just two interceptions on the season. The Owls haven’t gotten much going on the ground this year which is why Robison will be relied on to carry this offense against a team like Marshall. It helps that Marshall is currently 116th in passing yards allowed per attempt, so FAU should have success through the air.
Pittsburgh -3.5 at Syracuse, O/U 51.5
We have an ACC game here between 4-2 Pitt and 3-3 Syracuse. Pittsburgh a few weeks back were the giant-slayer as they ended UCF’s regular season win streak in a dramatic finish. They are a tough out for any team. That said, they aren’t a prolific scoring team and certainly rely on their defense to get the job done. Currently, the Panthers defense is one of the better in the ACC against both the run and the pass so it is hard to find a way to exploit them.
Syracuse, on the other hand, hasn’t looked good against power-five teams so far this season. They are 0-2 in the ACC and really cannot find much rhythm on offense. That starts upfront where they have struggled to create lanes for their running backs and they are averaging less then three yards a carry on the season. The passing attack is the better option, but Pittsburgh should be more than equipped to handle it. Syracuse is home in the dome, which helps, but they are going to have to be sharper than we saw last week.
UNLV at Fresno St -16, O/U 53
As you can see by the spread, UNLV may have their hands full as they are a 16-point underdog against Fresno. The rebels are just 2-4 on the year and winless in conference play. They really struggling passing the ball even with a pocket passer in Kenyon Obland. Previous quarterback Armani Rogers was a dual threat and while Obland can throw it better, the offense has lost the quarterback rushing upside.
Fresno State is a quality Mountain West team, but started off conference played with a 43-24 loss at Air Force last week. They couldn’t stop Air Force’s triple option attack, but a home game with UNLV could be what they need to turn things around. UNLV is currently 129th out of 130 teams in the country against the run, so Fresno should be able to control this game on the ground. Add in that they have more stability in this offense and it is hard to see this game being anything besides a comfortable win for the Bulldogs at home.
Ohio State -28 at Northwestern, O/U 49.5
This is the marquee game on the slate despite it being by far the highest spread. Ohio State is a national title contender and they will look to avoid a major collapse when traveling to Evanston.
Justin Fields transferred in from Georgia and immediately is in the conversation for the Heisman. So far this season he has scored both passing and rushing in every game this season and has a ridiculous 26 touchdowns through the first six games. Northwestern isn’t a terrible defense, but still cannot slow him or this Ohio State offense.
Possibly even worse than facing Fields is the fact that this Ohio State defense is also fantastic and Northwestern will struggle to move the ball. The implied total for the Wildcats is just 11 points in this one, so they aren’t going to hold much relevance in the DFS slate.
DFS Plays
QB Justin Fields, Ohio State – 8.3k DraftKings, 11k FanDuel
Not a hot take here as Fields is the obvious choice and will be mega popular. On DraftKings specifically I don’t know how you pass up on $8,300 , while on Fanduel he is priced up at $11,000. Still, this is a guy who is almost a lock to score at least one on the ground in addition to being able to throw for plenty of production.
Fields and Ohio State are a four-touchdown favorite, but with just four games, it is hard to pass up on what is sure to be plenty of production from this offense. The backups may be in for the fourth quarter, but there is no reason to overthink what is clearly the best option on this (and almost any non-Oklahoma) slate in DFS.
RB Ronnie Rivers, Fresno St – 6.4k DraftKings, 8.4k FanDuel
Maybe the best matchup on the entire slate in terms of specific level of defense is this Fresno State rushing attack against the UNLV rush defense. Fresno isn’t a high powered rushing team, but UNLV cannot stop anyone on the ground. Add in that Fresno State is a double-digit favorite and the game script sets up perfectly for the backfield to have a huge night.
Ronnie Rivers is an experienced back and when given the opportunity, he can produce a monster stat line. He also has the ability to catch out of the backfield, which isn’t as common in CFB as it is in NFL. Priority-wise, I am focusing on Fields, but my second higher-end guy would be Rivers.
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Games against the Spread
My Pick : Florida Atlantic -5.5
I am not a Lane Kiffin fan, but he has done a great job making Florida Atlantic a relevant team. He seems to book some massively tough opponents early in the season each year and while those games end in beatdowns, we see some of the dividends as the year goes on. This year, they went to Ohio State in Week 1, but they showed fight against the Buckeyes after taking a knockout punch early in the game.
As I mentioned earlier, Marshall leans pretty heavily on the rushing attack and if they are unsuccessful establishing a ground game or fall behind, it’s a tough ask for this offense. Add in that we know Marshall is one of the worst teams in the country at defending the pass and FAU has an easy way to attack on offense. Robison has shown he is more than capable of carving up teams through the air this season and I expect FAU to exploit Marshall in route to a comfortable win.
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Good Luck everyone!
Played Knox after I read this article along with a couple others and won a couple bucks.