Week 14 is finally upon us and this is the final week for many teams. The dust is clearing and the playoff picture will soon be in focus as we head to conference championship weekend which is rapidly approaching. Since this is Thanksgiving week, we have a different schedule with games throughout the day on Friday and Saturday. This article is going to focus on a few games against the spread that caught my eye. Make sure to check out the Week 14 DFS article that breaks down the slates from a DFS perspective and highlights a few players to keep an eye on. Let’s get into some college football picks.
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College Football Picks: Week 14 CFB Bets
Ohio State at Michigan 12 PM EST : Ohio State -9, O/U 50
Ohio State
It’s a pretty easy argument to make that Ohio State is the best team in the country as they haven’t been challenged and at times looked unbeatable. They have it all with Chase Young being the best defensive player in the country and Justin Fields being a Heisman-caliber quarterback. This, however, is certainly their biggest test of the season and it’s a road game, which Ohio State hasn’t been too familiar with. They’ve had four road games this season and they were against the following teams: Indiana, Nebraska, Northwestern and Rutgers. That’s the opposite of Murderers Row and it is one thing we haven’t seen this Ohio State team do, so it is worth considering how they’ll deal with real adversity away from home.
Michigan
The Wolverines have hit their stride and they’ve been on this collision course with their bitter rival for a while now. Michigan has dismantled four straight teams since that hard-fought loss at Penn State and both sides of the ball look to be in sync.
Michigan isn’t the most dynamic offense, but they still average 33 points per game and are over 42 points per game in their last three. Shea Patterson has looked the best he has all season and when he plays well, it transforms this entire offense. On defense, Michigan is fantastic across the board and teams will struggle both though the air and on the ground. We all know that Jim Harbaugh has struggled immensely against Ohio State and this game could be a season saver for a Michigan side in desperate need of a win against their bitter rival. I don’t know if Michigan can get the job done fully, but nine points is too many with how well the Wolverines are playing.
College Football Pick #1: Michigan +9
Alabama at Auburn 3:30 PM EST : Alabama -3.5 O/U 49.5
Alabama
Alabama’s playoff chances are on life support, but Lloyd Christmas knows that there’s always a chance. The need some helpand if Georgia beats LSU in the conference championship, then it is lights out for the powerhouse that is Alabama. First things first, they need to take care of business in the Iron Bowl against their archrival Auburn.
Tua Tagovailoa is out for the year as we all know and now they turn to Mac Jones to keep them alive. So far, he has looked fantastic with seven touchdowns and one interception, but it hasn’t been against anything even remotely similar to Auburn in terms of talent. He has a fantastic group of receivers with multiple NFL caliber players, but he will also be tested by a pass rush that is one of the tops in the country.
Auburn
They started the year with a huge win over Oregon, but Auburn was unable to complete the gauntlet in the SEC and has three losses in conference play. All of them are respectable as Florida, LSU and Georgia are top teams in the country, but Auburn was unable to capitalize on most of the marquee matchups. Similar to Michigan, this could be a season-saving win as Auburn doesn’t have much else to play for besides ending Alabama’s playoff hopes.
Quarterback Bo Nix has had an up-and-down year, but that isn’t a huge surprise considering he was a true freshman and the offense isn’t exactly high octane. He has reliable backs behind him and enough weapons to test what we all recognize isn’t the normal Alabama defense in terms of strength. Alabama losing Dylan Moses before the season began and string of other contributors has taken its toll and Auburn will move the ball here. This game comes down to Mac Jones and how effective he will be against Auburn’s front, but I think the Tigers have the advantage here and they end their season on a high note against their rival.
College Football Pick #2: Auburn +3.5
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Oregon State at Oregon 4 PM EST : Oregon -19.5 O/U 65.5
We have a PAC-12 game here and another huge rivalry between the Ducks and the Beavers set to take place in Eugene. Unfortunately, Arizona State just crushed Oregon’s playoff hopes with the massive upset last week, but there is still a spot I like in this game.
Oregon State
Besides Oregon, I think Oregon State has been one of my favorite teams to back all season. They have a fantastic senior quarterback in Jake Luton and have been consistently disrespected as they weren’t expected to win more than a few games on the season. Sitting at 5-6 on the season, a win here would cap off a fantastic 2019 campaign and probably secure a bowl bid for the Beavers. They struggle on defense and that has held them back all season, so slowing down the Ducks will be a challenge. The Beavers are 109th in points allowed per game and that immediately puts a ton of pressure on Luton and this offense to keep pace.
Oregon
I have no idea where Oregon will be at after letting all their playoff hopes slip away last week. Arizona State played well, but Oregon gave that game away with mistake after mistake and crucial turnovers on the road. They couldn’t get the stop when they needed to and obviously, they aren’t worthy of being in the playoff with a result like that. Still, this offense has a ton of talent with Justin Herbert under center and now they come home where they are incredibly difficult to play against. Add in that Oregon State’s defense is a mess and it is hard to imagine Oregon not putting up a bunch of points.
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The spread sits at 19.5, which is too rich for my blood and I also have no interest in backing the Beavers in this spot either. However, the over/under of 65.5 is a spot I am willing to attack as I feel confident in each team’s ability to move the ball. Oregon should do the heavy lifting and I wouldn’t be shocked for them to hang 50-plus on the Beavers in this spot. Luton should do enough to keep Oregon State afloat for a bit and with garbage time coming into play I think this shoots over the total.
College Football Pick #3: Over 65.5
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Good Luck everyone!
