CFB Betting: The 2019 College Football season is underway. We have four Friday games to breakdown from both a betting and DFS perspective. This article is going to focus on the games themselves, including college football odds and a CFB DFS breakdown.
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5 Big Questions for the 2019 Season
College Football Week 2 – Friday Pick 3
One week is in the books and now the second week of College Football begins. We didn’t have any earth shattering upsets for the Top 25 teams, but like always we saw some wild finishes and a few big time programs lose to a big underdog (Looking at you Tennessee)
This article is going to be a hybrid and will touch upon the games in general, the upcoming Friday night DFS slate, and the betting markets for the teams in action. Each section will highlight a few names, teams, or games to keep an eye on for this four game Friday night slate in CFB.
Games on Slate
We have a four game slate to breakdown, but the first thing to note is that two of these games feature teams playing an FCS opponent so naturally they are blowout risks and tough to get a read on.
Wake Forest -19 at Rice , O/U 59
Not one of the two games with an FCS opponent, but Wake Forest comes in as almost a three touchdown favorite against the Rice Owls. In Week 1 Wake Forest was in a wild shootout where they edged Utah St 38-35 behind some big numbers from QB Jamie Newman. Rice on the other hand was in a grind it out low scoring affair against Army where they kept it close, but ultimately lost 14-7 to drop to 0-1 on the season. We know that Wake Forest wants to play fast and that they have no problem getting into a shootout and I think that playing Army may have Rice undervalued just based off how Army basically never throws and that can really shorten games and take teams out of their natural rhythm. Rice offense should have more opportunities in this one and as a double digit underdog they should be throwing early and often trying to stay with Wake’s offense.
Marshall at Boise St -12 , O/U 57
Probably the biggest matchup of the night, which no disrespect to Marshall and Boise St isn’t one many people have circled on the calendar showing the lack of big games on this slate. Marshall got their season started with a borderline exhibition game against VMI where they won 56-17 and weren’t tested which is no surprise. We didn’t get a real feel for this offense due to it being such a mismatch and we will have to try and infer how they will deal with a Boise State team that is obviously in another class talent wise and at home.
Boise St had a big matchup that was moved from a “neutral” Jacksonville, FL to Tallahassee due to the hurricane and that made it even tougher on them as Florida State got a home game due to the change. At half time it looked dire for Boise, but they shut out Florida State in the second half and left Tallahassee with a victory and another takedown of a big name program. This Florida State team obviously isn’t who we are used to seeing, but Boise St did show they have some talent and now get a home game on their blue turf against Marshall. Boise State’s offense was successful across the board with QB Hank Bachmeier throwing for 400 yards and RB Robert Mahone rushing for 142 and two scores.
William & Mary at Virginia -34.5
First of the extreme miss matches as Virginia takes on William and Mary in a game that figures to get out of hand almost immediately. Last week Virginia went into Pittsburgh and walked out with an impressive 30-14 win thanks to QB Bryce Perkins who has major dual threat ability. William and Mary also started 1-0 against Lafayette, but we are talking about FCS teams so there’s not much to take out of a game like that. Last year William and Mary finished the year 4-7 and lost to Virginia Tech by 45 which seems like a decent barometer for what we see tonight. Virginia has another ACC conference game on deck so they should breeze past W&M and have their big names watching in the late stages of this one.
Sacramento St at Arizona St -36 , O/U 63.5
Last game on the slate and another one that will be over early. Sacramento State went 2-8 last season although they did keep it respectable against FBS San Diego State losing 28-14. Still that’s not going to mean much tonight as Arizona State has superior talent across the board and RB Eno Benjamin will make quick work of the hornets. Arizona State has a huge matchup next week going to East Lansing to take on Michigan State so this is another situation where they should get up early and then have their big names watching from the sidelines once it’s out of hand.
DFS Plays
Jayden Daniels , Arizona St – 6.7k Draftkings
The true freshman was impressive even if it was against Kent State who was outmatched on both sides of the ball. Tougher tests lie ahead for Daniels, but not on Friday night as Sacramento State is actually a notch down from their opener so he should have no problem moving the offense. He has dual threat abilities and found the end zone on the ground as well as twice thru the air last week so the upside is there. The big question is how long will he and the rest of the starters play with a big game on deck, but at 6.7k he can put up a quality line even in a game where he sits the fourth quarter. Eno Benjamin is the best player on the slate but his price is almost 10k and that’s really difficult to pay off in a massive blowout so I’d rather get Sun Devil exposure throughthe QB in this one.
Robert Mahone , Boise State – 4.7k Draftkings
This feels like a clear misprice as Mahone torched Florida State for a pair of TDs and now gets a home matchup with Marshall who isn’t exactly a defensive juggernaut. The Boise State offense had a lot of production to fill after Rypien and Mattison moved on and it seems like Mahone is one of the guys who will be involved each week. Last week he has 24 carries and also caught a pass so for that type of volume he clearly is underpriced sub 5k. Add in the fact that Boise St is at home and a 12 point favorite it’s hard to find many negatives when breaking down this situation.
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Games against the Spread
Marshall at Boise State Over 57
It’s a four game slate and the closest spread is 12 points so this isn’t a can’t miss Friday and one where I see a lot of plays in the betting market. The only thing that did catch my eye was the Over in the Boise St game as their offense was impressive against FSU and they look to have filled the voids left by graduation nicely with some new play makers stepping in. Marshall returns eight starters on offense including a capable QB in Isaiah Green so I would expect them to be able to move the ball in this game despite being underdogs. Before Florida State unraveled they did hang 31 points in a half on Boise’s defense so it remains to be see how good that unit actually is. With Boise having a balanced attack and Marshall probably playing catch-up this game could creep into the 60’s when it is all done and I will take a little shot on the over for my only CFB play on Friday night.
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Good Luck everyone!
