College Football: Week 15 CFB DFS Picks & Game Breakdowns | 12/12

Week 15 of the College Football season is upon us. Each week, I’ll take a deep dive into the matchups and break down the games from a CFB DFS perspective. From the data, we can pinpoint the games that we see as being the top fantasy-point producers on the slate and who should be in line for the majority of the offensive output. Thus, leading us to finding the best CFB DFS picks for both DraftKings and FanDuel Week 15 daily fantasy lineups.

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Week 15 DraftKings + FanDuel CFB DFS Picks & Matchup Breakdown

Alabama CFB DFS Picks

Plays per Game: 69.3

Pass Rate: 46.2%

Mac Jones ($9,500) – A legitimate candidate for the Heisman trophy, Jones currently completes 75.7% of his passes for 12.2 yards per pass attempt. Jones has already eclipsed 300 passing yards in six of nine games this season. Averaging 345 passing yards per game on just 28.7 attempts, Jones’ stacks always play. However, stacking Jones with Devonta Smith presents legitimate opportunity cost concerns. His upside remains at the top of the slate.

Najee Harris ($9,200) – Entering the slate as 32.5-point favorites with an enormous 50.5 implied team total, Harris looks like a smash play against Arkansas. Harris already averages 22.3 touches per game and 115 yards on the ground alone. Hyper-active as a pass catcher, Harris also ranks third on the team in overall targets. Similar to Jones and Smith, the only concern remains price.

DeVonta Smith ($10,000) – Mentioned above, Smith continues to dominate the college football landscape for the second consecutive season. Smith averages an absurd 145 receiving yards per game and 11.3 targets per game in his last four contests. Smith holds the same concerns as Jones and Harris, but lineups should target some of these Alabama studs

John Metchie ($5,500) – A much cheaper stacking option with Jones, Metchie now has 16 targets combined in his last two games. Just behind Smith, Metchie also averages a strong 72 receiving yards per game. Metchie likely enters the week as a well-deserved popular option, given his salary on DraftKings.

Jaheel Billingsley ($4,800) – Without Jaylen Waddle, Alabama has turned to more 12-personnel instead of featuring Slade Bolden. This puts Billingsley on the field with Miller Forristall. Billingsley remains the receiving tight end and has at least two targets in each of his last three games. He is a contrarian play off Metchie.

Arkansas CFB DFS Picks

Plays per Game: 71.6

Pass Rate: 45.5%

Feleipe Franks ($6,100) – Franks popped up as a surprise inactive last week after apparently dealing with a rib injury. Franks practiced all week, but Sam Pittman continues to call him a game-time decision. Franks has played semi-efficient football with a 68% completion percentage. Still, he only has two games north of 300 passing yards. On the season, he averages 248 passing yards per game on 28.5 attempts. Positively, Franks offers some dual threat upside with 229 passing yards. If Franks cannot get the start, pocket passer KJ Jefferson would draw the start and slightly downgrade the skill position players.

Trelon Smith ($6,300) – Rakeem Boyd opted out of the remainder of the season in preparation for the NFL Draft. Without Boyd last week, Smith handled 26 carries and a pair of targets in the pass game. However, the week prior Smith showed the concerns in negative game script. He only carried 11 times while receiving five targets. Surely to be trailing from behind, Smith’s questions come from negative game script rather offensive role.

Treylon Burks ($6,000) – Arkansas’ alpha receiver, Burks holds a 25% target share within the offense. Burks averages 99.4 receiving yards per game, making him the preferred run back in Alabama stacks.

Mike Woods ($4,500) – Losing De’Vion Warren for the season, Woods stepped up into a clear WR2 role for Arkansas. Woods has at least five targets in each of his last two games, while ranking second on the team in receiving yards (569). Behind Woods, Trey Knox and Tyson Morris split snaps as the WR3.

Georgia CFB DFS Picks

Plays per Game: 70.2

Pass Rate: 45.2%

JT Daniels ($8,200) – Now with two games under his belt, Daniels continues to play efficient football for Georgia. He currently completes 70.4% of his passes for 10 yards per attempt. However, Georgia’s offense limits Daniels in non-competitive games. Against Mississippi State, Daniels notched 401 passing yards on 38 attempts. However, in his subsequent game against South Carolina, Daniels completed just 10 of 16 passes for 139 passing yards. Daniels offers no dual threat ability and often finishes with negative rushing yards. At an elevated price, this makes him somewhat dependent on a 300-yard bonus.

Zamir White ($6,800) – Kendall Milton has been dealing with an injury and hopes to return this week. White already splits carries with James Cook, Kenny McIntosh and Daijun Edwards. Despite the projected positive game script, White’s role cannot be counted on at his price.

George Pickens ($6,400) – Last year’s top receiver, Pickens’ sophomore season has been a major disappointment. Pickens dealt with injury for a stretch of time and currently boasts a modest 252 yards receiving. With Georgia leaning on the run in positive game script, there’s no reason Pickens should carry a $6,400 price tag.

Jermaine Burton ($5,600) – Moving ahead of Kearis Jackson ($5,300) as Georgia’s WR2, Burton actually has more targets than Pickens in Georgia’s last two games (15-14). Burton carries the same risks as Pickens in a run-first offense, but his price remains more palatable. Ultimately, neither receiver looks like anything other than a dart throw.

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Missouri CFB DFS Picks

Plays per Game: 75.5

Pass Rate:  50.5%

Connor Bazelak ($5,700) – Improving as the season moves along, Bazelak eclipsed 300 passing yards in each of his last two games. However, those games occurred against Vanderbilt and Arkansas. He completes 69.5% of his passes for just 7.8 yards per attempt on the year. This pushes Bazelak’s passing average to 250 yards per game on 32.3 attempts. Against Georgia’s elite secondary, this ceiling outcome seems unlikely.

Larry Rountree ($7,100) – Missouri’s early down back, Rountree has handled an immense workload in recent weeks. Now averaging 23.3 touches per game, Rountree has at least 21 carries in Missouri’s last three games. However, Tyler Badie ($4,400) plays a clear role as Missouri’s preferred pass catching back. Badie has at least six targets in each of his last three games and holds an 11.5% target share on the year. With Missouri implied for 20.5 points, both backs remain a stretch.

Keke Chism ($4,700) – Emerging as Missouri’s top receiver, Chism averages 8.8 targets per game in his last four contests. Chism also leads the team with 369 receiving yards on the year, while growing into a larget role throughout. He is a solid option in this offense.

Damon Hazelton ($4,200) – The Virginia Tech transfer hasn’t had the successful transition he hoped for. Hazelton still ranks second on Missouri in targets, but he consistently finds himself falling behind Tauski Dove in targets. With Dove coming at a fraction of the price, taking a risk with Hazelton should be saved for large field tournaments unless Dove misses time.

Tauski Dove ($3,800) – Dove is questionable this week. This is notable because he appears to have overtaken Jalen Knox as a starting receiver on this team. Not to mention, he has out-targeted Hazelton in two straight games. Dove is the top price-adjusted play in the offense, but if he can’t go, Knox stands to benefit.

Houston CFB DFS Picks

Plays per Game: 72.8

Pass Rate:  49.7%

Clayton Tune ($7,800) – After eclipsing 300 passing yard in each of his first three games, Tune hasn’t eclipsed 263 yards in three straight games. Partially due to a multitude of Covid-19 absences among his pass catcher, Tune currently completes only 60.6% of his passes. Luckily, Tune still attempts 33.3 passes per game and draws a Memphis defense allowing 324 passing yards per game. Tune also provides solid dual threat upside with 233 cumulative yards on the year.

Mulbah Car ($4,200) – Kyle Porter will not return for Houston this week, but the Cougars are expected to return Mulbah Car. Car got banged up in Houston’s most recent game, but he typically functions as a change of pace back to Porter. While Kelan Walker and Chandler Smith will paly a role in this backfield, Car should handle a majority of the work.

Marquez Stevenson ($7,500) – Houston dealt with a wicked Covid-19 outbreak, but not expects to return multiple starters including Stevenson. Houston’s top receiver, Stevenson only has 21 targets this year, but he still ranks second on the team in receiving yards (272). Coming in slightly underpriced, Stevenson is a strong target.

Keith Corbin ($5,900) – Houston’s interim alpha receiver, Corbin currently leads the team in targets (40) and receiving yards (333). Corbin likely takes a backseat to Stevenson, but his role remains locked in as a top pass catcher in the offense.

Tre’Von Bradley ($4,000) – Prior to the extended absence, Bradley ranked second on the team in targets. Sitting at 23 targets on the year, Bradley still averages 5.8 targets per game. If active, he looks like one of the top price-adjusted plays in the offense.

Nathaniel Dell ($4,300) – JUCO transfer, Dell took on a larger role without Stevenson and Bradley. He still played a decent number of snaps when all of Houston’s pass catchers were healthy. However, the return of Stevenson and Bradley bumps down his projection.

Memphis CFB DFS Picks

Plays per Game: 77.6

Pass Rate:  54.4%

Brady White ($8,600) – Despite losing his top pass catcher, Damonte Coxie, White continues to put up elite numbers. White averages 316 passing yards per game on 39.1 attempts. White offers little dual threat ability, but the Memphis offense passes 54.4% of the time, providing White enough upside for tournament consideration.

Rodrigues Clark ($5,700) – Clark has missed multiple games with injury not, but he logged limited practice earlier this week. Silverfield noted that this will still be a running back by committee approach whether Clark plays of not. Behind Clark, Asa Martin ($4,800) has returned to the rotation and stands to benefit the most if Clark misses time. Kylan Watkins has been moved to the bench.

Calvin Austin ($7,900) – Assuming Coxie’s role as Memphis’ top receiver, Austin averages 10.5 targets per game in his last four contests. On top of that, Austin also has 106 receiving yards per game and 951 total yards on the season, despite playing a complimentary role to start the year.

Tahj Washington ($5,100) – Also moving into a larger role without Coxie, Washington now averages 8.0 targets per game and 64.8 receiving yards. Washington also has at least six targets in each of his last four games, giving him a rock-solid floor at his price.

Sean Dykes ($5,700) – Athletic receiving tight end, Dykes has played a somewhat reduced role of late. He only saw two targets in his most recent game, but he still averages 6.3 targets over his last four contests. Likely to draw less ownership than Washington, Dykes is a strong contrarian play. Behind Dykes, Javon Ivory ($3,300) plays the actually third wide receiver role for this team. Ivory pops up for big games occasionally, but he remains a cheap attachment to a strong Memphis offense.


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Rutgers CFB DFS Picks

Plays per Game: 75.7

Pass Rate:  50.4%

Noah Vedral ($5,400) – Vedral started Rutger’s most recent game, despite ceding a pass attempt to Johnny Langan. Vedral’s top skill remains his dual threat ability. On the year, Vedral averages just 206 passing yards per game on 33.7 attempts. With one of the shortest leashes on the slate, Vedral looks like a contrarian GPP play only.

Isaih Pacheco ($4,500) – In the run game, Pacheco leads this backfield with 109 touches on the year. Pacheco still only averages 56.7 rushing yards and 13 receiving yards per game in a typically inefficient offense. Pacheco also cedes some work to Kay’Ron Adams in the run game and Aaron Young in the pass game. Price keeps Pacheco in play, but his role is tenuous.

Bo Melton ($7,000) – Melton remains the alpha receiver in this offense, with a 23.1% target share. Melton also presents big-play ability with 73.4 receiving yards per game. Shockingly, his price comes in at $7,000, making him virtually unplayable on the main slate.

Shameen Jones ($3,400) – While less expensive, Jones actually runs more routes than Aron Cruickshank ($3,700). Cruickshank holds a 43-41 target edge to date, but Jones ran a route on 90% of dropbacks compared to 52% for Cruickshank. The pivot here is easy.

Maryland CFB DFS Picks

Plays per Game: 61.5

Pass Rate:  54.9%

Taulia Tagovailoa ($7,100) – One of the most volatile quarterbacks in college football, Tagovailoa currently averages 252 passing yards per game on 30.5 attempts. He provides some dual threat ability with 49 rushing yards on the year.

Jake Funk ($6,900) – Missing Maryland’s most recent game with what is believed to be a Covid related absence, Funk should be back in action this week. Prior to the missed time, Funk played a feature-back role in the offense. However, in his most recent game, he ceded ten carries to Isaiah Jacobs and Penny Boone. Tayon Fleet-Davis also looks likely to make his return after satisfying a suspension, further muddying the waters.

Dontay Demus ($6,100) – Maryland’s top receiver, Demus leads the team with a 32.8% target share on thes season. Demus averages 85.8 receiving yards per game and has paced the team in targets every game so far this season. While Jarrett continues to emerge, Demus remains locked into his alpha receiving role on the offense.

Rakim Jarrett ($5,300) – Maryland dealt with numerous Covid-19 issues over the past month. Jarrett reappeared on the depth chart, suggesting he will return. Prior to his absence, the five-star freshman looked to be working his way into a full-time role. His targets and snaps rose every single week this year, suggesting and elevated role down the stretch.

Jeshaun Jones ($6,100) – In a similar situation to Jarrett, Jones also reappeared on the depth chart ahead of this week’s tilt against Rutgers. Brian Cobbs ($3,400) has actually run more routes than Jones and Darryl Jones ($3,000) consistently this season, making him a stronger price-adjusted play in the offense.

Wake Forest CFB DFS Picks

Plays per Game: 81.5

Pass Rate:  45.0%

Sam Hartman ($6,800) – A pure pocket passer, Hartman averages 240 passing yards per game. However, Wake Forest plays at one of fastest rates in the country. In competitive games, Hartman’s passing volume often approaches 40 attempts. This keeps his viable in stacks despite his negative rushing totals.

Christian Beal-Smith ($6,600) – Backfield counterpart Kenneth Walker opted out of the season. Walker vacated 119 carries, 2 targets and 82.7 rushing yards per game. Already very active in this offense, Beal-Smith averages 15.6 opportunities per game and 86 yards on the ground alone. Louisville allows 185 rushing yards per game, setting up Beal-Smith for a smash spot.

Jaquarii Roberson ($6,700) – After playing a part-time role to open the season, Roberson has emerged as Wake Forest’s alpha receiver. Roberson paced the team in targets (57) and averages 93.9 receiving yards per game. Also averaging ten targets per game in his last four contests, Roberson remains a strong play on this slate.

Donavon Greene ($5,600) – Wake Forest’s second-most targeted receiver, Greene functions primarily as a deep threat in this offense. The second-most targeted receiver on the team, Greene also ranks second in receiving yards (460). With 7.3 targets per game in his last four, he also looks like a sharp target.

Nolan Groulx ($3,000) – With AT Perry’s status in doubt, Groulx stepped into a full-time receiving role in Wake Forest’s offense. Groulx saw eight targets and ran a route on at least 84% of dropbacks in three straight games for Wake Forest. For those completely punting Groulx is a serviceable option.


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Louisville CFB DFS Picks

Plays per Game: 69.1

Pass Rate:  46.0%

Malik Cunningham ($8,900) – Now playing without Javian Hawkins and Tutu Atwell, Cunningham brings legitimate efficiency concerns. Still Cunningham averages 242 passing yards per game on just 28.3 attempts per game. Also viable as a dual threat, Cunningham has 571 cumulative rushing yards this year. While Atwell’s departure hurts, Cunningham stacks remain discounted as long as Louisville can retain their efficiency.

Jalen Mitchell ($6,200) – Without Hawkins, Louisville has resorted to a committee consisting of Hassan Hall ($4,100), Maurice Burkley ($4,000), and Mitchell. While Burkely missed last week’s game, Mitchell still split the backfield directly with Hall. Priced over $2k apart, this difference doesn’t make much sense. Still, Wake Forest allows 192 rushing yards per game.

Tutu Atwell ($6,200) – Already losing Javian Hawkins to NFL Draft prep, Atwell decided to follow suit.

Dez Fitzpatrick ($5,800) – Now the top wide receiver without Atwell, Fitzpatrick enters Week 15 mispriced. Last Atwell absence, Fitzpatrick received eight targets. Already holding a 23.6% target share, Fitzpatrick figures to draw ownership this week.

Braden Smith ($3,500) – Similarly, Smith should also walk into a larger role. Already averaging 4.5 targets per game in his last four contests, Smith saw five targets in Atwell’s recent absence. He will function as a cheap WR2 in this offense.

Marshon Ford ($3,400) – Receiving tight end Ford only runs routes on about 50% of dropbacks in Louisville’s offense. With Smith available for $100 more, Ford doesn’t make much sense.

Navy CFB DFS Picks

Plays per Game: 65.1

Pass Rate:  23.7%

Xavier Arline ($5,200) – Navy has played multiple quarterbacks this season, but the program announced that Arline will draw the start. However, Navy has routinely rotated quarterbacks this season, giving little confidence to Arline in this spot. A 5-foot-9 true freshman, Arline carried 27 times for 60 yards in Navy’s most recent game. Still, Navy has played multiple quarterbacks in almost every game this year, giving little confidence to Arline here.

Nelson Smith ($5,000) – After losing his job to Jamale Carothers ($4,200), Smith has regained it. Smith has at least ten carries in each of his last four games and averages 69 rushing yards per game. Still, playing as underdogs here, Smith may struggle with efficiency against a strong Army defense.

Jamale Carothers ($4,200) – At this point, Carothers is a change of pace fullback.

Chance Warren ($3,100) – One of Army’s slot backs, Warren averages 4.6 touches per game, but has seen at least five in each of his most recent games. These touches have only amounted to 13 rushing yards per game.

Myles Fells ($3,000) – Fells left last week’s game with a head injury. This puts his status in doubt this weekend. Even at the minimum price, Navy backs don’t enter the conversation as playable assets.

Army CFB DFS Picks

Plays per Game: 68.7

Pass Rate:  12.6%

Tyhier Tyler ($5,800) – Tyler earned his first career start last game and turned in an absurd 36 carries and 100+ yards rushing. Army hasn’t committed to a quarterback all year, with Christian Anderson ($5,700) and Maurice Bellan ($4,500) both appearing in Army’s last three games. However, Army stuck with Tyler despite a pair of early fumbles last week. With more job security, Tyler looks like the safer of the two armed forces quarterbacks.

Jakobi Buchanan ($5,000) – Playing the fullback position for Army, Buchanan averages 9.8 touches per game and 43.1 rushing yards. The value from this position comes from touchdown scoring. Even as the favorite, touchdown upside is limited from this offense given the slow triple option offenses on both sides.

Sandon McCoy ($6,000) – McCoy averages 8.4 touches per game and 28.3 yards. Buchanan is simple a better value at his price.

Tyrell Robinson ($3,900) – Another slotback, Robinson averages 6.4 touches per game and 42 yards. Fairly efficient, Robinson’s usage would need to increase to become an option in DFS. Overall, this game doesn’t present much intrigue outside of the signal callers.

Coastal Carolina CFB DFS Picks

Plays per Game: 72.2

Pass Rate:  35.1%

Grayson McCall ($8,300) – One of the most efficient true freshman quarterbacks in the country, McCall averages 204 passing yards per game on just 21 attempts. Likewise, McCall already has 433 cumulative rushing yards, while absorbing just nine sacks.

CJ Marable ($8,400) – Highly utilized in competitive game scripts, CJ Marable often sees his workload reduced in blowouts. Still averaging 17.4 touches per game, Marable has racked up 72.8 yards per contest. Importantly, Marable also presents receiving upside with 33 targets this year. Troy allows 178 rushing yards per game, setting up Marable for another strong performance.

Reese White ($3,900) – A big change of pace back, White often enters the fold in short yardage situations. He still averages 7.6 touches per game, with many of them coming at the goal line.

Jaivon Heiligh ($6,000) – Technically the alpha receiver in this offense, Heiligh averages 68 receiving yards per game, but his targets have fallen to 4.5 per game in his four most recent games. Still accounting for 28.8% of the team’s targets, Heiligh likely need negative game script to pay off this salary.

Isaiah Likely ($4,500) – Playing through a foot injury that will require surgery at seasons end, Likely averages four targets per game in Coastal’s last four contests. Just as active as Heiligh in the pass game, paying down for the athletic receiving tight end makes sense. Kameron Brown is the other full-time receiver in the offense, but he only averages 3.3 targets per game in his last four games.

Troy CFB DFS Picks

Plays per Game: 72.2

Pass Rate:  58.8%

Gunnar Watson ($5,600) – A pure pocket passer, Watson already has -61 rushing yards this year on 15 sacks. Facing a strong Coastal Carolina defensive line, pressure could cause Watson problems here. However, Watson still presents upside as a passer. Watson averages 235 passing yards per game on 33 attempts.

Kimani Vidal ($5,200) – Making his return to the lineup in Troy’s most recent game, Vidal handled 22 carries and 7 targets out of the backfield. Based on touches alone, this looks like a situation to target. However, Vidal typically splits time with BJ Smith and Jamontez Woods. This feature back workload could be a small sample trap.

Keylon Geiger ($4,900) – Troy’s top receiver, Geiger averages 64.9 receiving yards per game on a 19.8% target share. Troy’s 58.8% pass rate makes most of their pass catchers values this week as long as Coastal doesn’t soak up time of possession. For that reason, they are best left to GPPs.

Reggie Todd ($3,700) – Emerging as a full-time player in this offense, Todd ran the same amount of routes as Khalil McClain ($5,200) last game. Similarly, Todd averages 5.3 targets per game in his last four contests. That number mirrors McClain over that span.

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North Carolina CFB DFS Picks

Plays per Game: 74.4

Pass Rate:  45.5%

Sam Howell ($8,800) – One of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country, Howell averages 310 passing yards per game, despite throwing the ball just 29.7 times per game. Howell also provides a floor as a rusher with 116 cumulative rushing yards.

Javonte Williams ($7,000) – Playing in a blowout last week, Williams only handled six touches. However, his workload remains immense with 16.1 touches per game. He also plays highly efficient football, with 93.2 rushing yards per game and 27 total targets in the offense.

Michael Carter ($7,300) – Similarly, Carter saw nine touches last week, but averages 16.0 over the course of the season. Also efficient, Carter averages 93.7 rushing yards per game and has 28 total targets. Both players are strong considerations on a weekly basis.

Dyami Brown ($6,600) – North Carolina’s top receiver, Brown plays the boundary and functions as a big play receiver within the offense. Brown paces the team in targets (77) and receiving yards (932), making his a solid option in a tough matchup against Miami.

Dazz Newsome ($6,300) – Finally waking up after a slow start, Newsome averages 8.0 targets per game in his last four contests. Playing the slot, Newsome only has 601 receiving yards this year. However, his locked in role creates value in one of the ACC’s top offenses.

Beau Corrales ($3,000) – UNC decided to shut down Corrales due to linger injuries. Emery Simmons and Khafre Brown will split WR3 duties in this offense.

Miami CFB DFS Picks

Plays per Game: 76.8

Pass Rate:  47.2%

D’Eriq King ($9,300) – One of the country’s premier dual threat signal callers, King averages 259 passing yards per game, while turning in 467 total rushing yards. Miami’s offense also runs 76.8 plays per game, allowing King to throw the ball 32 times per game.

Cam’Ron Harris ($6,700) – Functioning at the primary ball carrier in a time share, Harris averages 14.2 opportunities per game. A low upside option, Harris only notches 64 rushing yards per game. Increasingly, Donald Chaney and Jaylan Knight siphon off carries in this backfield. Knighton may also miss this week after dealing with injury, but this still looks like a situation to avoid.

Mike Harley ($7,200) – Slot specialist, Harley enters this contest with an egregious price tag. Harley averages just 72.6 yards per game and 6.6 targets. With Jordan back in the picture, Harley’s target volume remains questionable.

Dee Wiggins ($4,600) – Miami’s WR2 this season, Wiggins holds a 17% target share within the offense. Over the last four weeks, Wiggins averages 7.3 targets per game. Wiggins will provide usable weeks in competitive game scripts, potentially providing viability in this spot.

Brevin Jordan ($5,000) – First dealing with injury and then a subsequent Covid-19 absence, Jordan finally appears healthy. Last week, he tied for a team-leading six targets and should function as a larger piece of this pass game moving forward.

Michigan State CFB DFS Picks

Plays per Game: 70.5

Pass Rate:  50.8%

Rocky Lombardi ($5,000) – Lombardi remains banged up, but coach Mel Tucker noted that he is doing better. He still has a chance to start this week, but it is believed that Lombardi suffered a concussion. Lombardi has had a rocky start to the season and currently averages just 181 passing yards per game. Since eclipsing 300 yards in his first two games, Lombardi hasn’t finished with more than 227 in any subsequent contest. If Lombardi can’t go, Payton Thorne likely draws the start. Shockingly, Thorne has been even worse than Lombardi to start the year.

Connor Heyward ($4,500) – Typically a three-man committee, Jordan Simmon’s injury reduced Michgan State’s backfield to two. Still largely unusable, Heyward and Elijah Collins each has eight carries last week. Often trailing in games and projected to trail again here, Michigan State backs seldom provide a ceiling. Simmons potential return further muddies these waters.

Jalen Nailor ($4,300) – The top receiver for the Spartans, Nailor leads the team with 46 targets and 415 receiving yards. Averaging 6.3 targets per game over his last four contest, Nailor remains a decent price-adjusted option in this offense.

Jayden Reed ($4,600) – Similar to Nailor, Western Michigan transfer Reed also averages 6.3 target per game in his last four contests. Reed has 42 targets this year and racked up 331 yards on this volume. He is more expensive than Nailor for some reason, but both receivers deserve consideration.

Tre Mosley ($4,500) – With Ricky White nursing an injury, Mosley stepped into the WR3 role for Michigan State. Mosley has ten combined targets in two games and remains a distant third in this passing attack. White’s return would render him unusable.

Penn State CFB DFS Picks

Plays per Game: 83.1

Pass Rate:  46.9%

Sean Clifford ($6,400) – Clifford was the only quarterback to throw a pass last week, but Will Levis ($5,600) still played a significant number of snaps. Levis handled 17 rushing attempts for Penn State. Platooning their signal callers, neither presents enough upside to target on a 12-games slate.

Keyvone Lee ($5,100) – Lee was banged up in last week’s game after handling 18 carries. If Lee can’t go, Penn State likely uses some combination of Devyn Ford ($4,900) and Caziah Holmes ($3,600). Lee has back-to-back games with 22 and 18 carries respectively.

Jahan Dotson ($6,500) – Penn State’s top wide receiver, Dotson has oddly suffered from positive game script in recent weeks. Often employing a running back at signal caller (Levis), Dotson’s floor has been reduced without Clifford’s raw passing volume from a season ago. Still, he averages 83.9 receiving yards per game, with most of that production concentrated in a few blowout losses at the beginning of the year.

Parker Washington ($4,400) – Without Pat Freiermuth, Washington has seen elevated target volume. He averages 7.5 targets per game in Penn State’s last four contest. Dotson averages just 7.8 per game in the same span, making Washington a far superior price-adjusted play.

Duke CFB DFS Picks

Plays per Game: 78.7

Pass Rate:  50.8%

Chase Brice ($5,500) – A transfer from Clemson this offseason, Brice has played relatively inefficient football. On the year, he averages 209 passing yards per game on 33.5 attempts per game. Brice actually brings decent dual threat ability, but most of that upside is mitigated through sacks. On the year, Brice has absorbed 33 sacks, leading to just 63 cumulative yards.

Mateo Durant ($6,400) – Formerly Deon Jackson’s backfield, Duke has employed a time-share in recent weeks. Interestingly, Durant has functioned as the 1A in this time share. However, looking deeper this makes complete sense. Durant already has 50 more rushing yards than Jackson despite seeing 41 fewer carries. He should continue handling most carries moving forward.

Jalon Calhoun ($3,800) – Injuries forced Duke to narrow their wide receiver rotation and Calhoun sits at the top of the group. His 60 targets equate to a 17.5% target share, but he now averages 7.0 targets per game in his last four contests. This makes him the top target of the group.

Jake Bobo ($3,500) – Second on the team in targets (49), Bobo only averages four targets per game in his most recent contests. With Eli Pancol ($3,900) also averaging four target per game, both receivers look like pure dart throw options this weekend.

Florida State CFB DFS Picks

Plays per Game: 74.9

Pass Rate:  51.1%

Jordan Travis ($7,000) – Chubba Purdy had season-ending surgery, meaning Florida State needs to turn back to Travis. Travis’ upside comes primarily through rushing. Travis has 472 total rushing yards this year, while averaging just 123 through the air.

Jashaun Corbin ($5,500) – Corbin will handle most of the backfield work after La’Damian Webb opted out of the rest of the season. Already averaging 10.6 touches per game, Corbin should now handle a majority of Webb’s vacated 11.4 touches per game. Duke allows over 200 rushing yards per game.

Ontaria Wilson ($5,500) – With Tamorrion Terry opting out, Wilson has emerged as Florida State’s top receiver. He now has 5.5 targets per game in his last four contests, but saw eight targets without Terry. Travis struggles as a passer, so Wilson’s ceiling likely remains in check here.

Keyshawn Helton ($3,300) – Helton remains a mere GPP dart throw in Florida State’s disappointing offense. He runs a route on a majority of dropbacks, but only has 25 targets this year.

Wisconsin CFB DFS Picks

Plays per Game: 77.0

Pass Rate:  41.6%

Graham Mertz ($6,000 – Game managing his way to a mediocre season, Mertz’s upside remains in check within a neutered Wisconsin offense. Mertz averages 202 passing yards on 29.8 attempts per game. Without any dual threat ability, Mertz satisfies one of the tried-and-true rules in College Football DFS. Ignore the Wisconsin Badger’s signal caller.

Jalen Berger ($5,400) – After missing Week 1, Berger has exactly 15 carries in each of his three appearances this year. He also averages a healthy 89 rushing yards per game, making a serviceable target this week.

Garrett Groshek ($4,000) – Part-time fullback, third-down back, and goal-line back, Groshek provides one of the most unique skillsets in all of college football. Still, his interesting usage seldom leads to DFS production. He averages 12.3 touches per game, with most of that production coming as dump offs out of the backfield.

Jake Ferguson ($5,400) – Wisconsin’s athletic tight end continues to battle a shoulder injury. However, Ferguson still has target counts of nine and ten in back-to-back games. Averaging 58.8 receiving yards per game, he remains a touchdown dependent dart throw.

Kendric Pryor ($3,400) – Pryor suffered an upper body injury and did not return last week. With Danny Davis already rules out, this could put Chimere Dike ($4,100) back into Wisconsin’s top wide receiver slot. Targeting wide receiver for Wisconsin is arguably the riskiest strategy on the entire slate.

Iowa CFB DFS Picks

Plays per Game: 70.9

Pass Rate: 46.8%

Spencer Petras ($5,200) – Player with perhaps even less upside than Mertz, Petras truly remains one of the worst quarterbacks in college football. Failing to provide any upside with his legs, Petras averages just 194 passing yards per game on 31.6 pass attempts.

Tyler Goodson ($7,500) – Ceding more work to Mekhi Sargent than most will admit, Goodson still averages 21.6 opportunities per game. Also averaging 94.1 rushing yards per contest, Goodson could struggle in this spot against fierce Wisconsin run defense.

Ihmir Smith-Marsette ($4,700) – After serving a laughable one-game suspension for a DUI, Smith-Marsette has fallen victim to Petras inefficiencies. No receiver on Iowa averages more than 37 receiving yards per game. This renders Smith-Marsette, Brandon Smith ($4,000) and Sam LaPorta ($4,200) all volatile dart throws.


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Author
Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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