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College Football DFS: Week 11 DraftKings & FanDuel CFB Picks | Tuesday, 11/9/2021

Matt Gajewski



CFB DFS Picks DraftKings FanDuel College Football NCAAF daily fantasy optimal lineup optimizer free expert projections rankings ownership today tonight this week Week 11 Eastern Michigan Hassan Beydoun

Week 11 action kicks off with a Tuesday three-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. This college football DFS breakdown will look at both teams and provide information about each skill position player of note. Make sure to check out our projections, depth charts and datasheets for more information. With that said, let’s dive into the first iteration of the Week 11 CFB DFS picks for Tuesday’s matchup.

College Football DFS: Week 11 Tuesday CFB Picks

Buffalo vs. Miami Ohio

Buffalo (25 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 77.1 (15th)

Pass Rate – 42.95% (94th)

At quarterback, Kyle Vantrease ($6,000) enters this game with the questionable tag. Vantrease failed to practice towards the end of last week, but Buffalo is coming off a bye. The Bulls still listed him as their starter on the depth chart. Vantrease has shown more mobility than usual this year with 112 total yards rushing. Buffalo is still plays run heavy football, but they are running 77.1 plays per game. With that said, Vantrease still averages just 191.7 yards passing per game on 26.9 attempts. With no 300-yard games this year and only two in his career, Vantrease looks like a low upside option on a slate with multiple high scoring quarterbacks. If Vantrease cannot go, Matt Myers ($5,800) does not offer much in relief.

Buffalo continues to deal with injuries to their backfield. Kevin Marks ($6,000) has not played in Buffalo’s last three games. His status has not been updated, but most outlets consider Marks doubtful for this game. Dylan McDuffie ($6,900) has emerged as Buffalo’s lead runner in his place. McDuffie has at least 22 carries in three straight games. He now averages 84.3 rushing and 5.3 yards receiving per game on 16.6 touches. Ron Cook ($3,600) will play a change of pace role, but he averages 10.9 touches per game himself. Miami Ohio plays stout run defense by MAC standards, only allowing 150.1 yards per game.

Bowling Green transfer Quian Williams ($6,300) leads Buffalo in most major receiving categories. He averages 77.6 yards receiving per game on 8.6 targets. However, the target average has spiked to 9.8 over Buffalo’s last three games. Behind him, Dominic Johnson ($4,600) has emerged as the WR2, with Jovany Ruiz getting injured. Johnson averages 5.5 targets per game over Buffalo’s last four, which ranks ahead of WR3 Jamari Gassett’s (3,500) four targets per game. Tight end Tyler Stephens ($3,200) is also involved, but his route rate has not exceeded 70% in any game this year. he still averages 3.8 targets per game over Buffalo’s last four. Williams is a solid price adjusted play here.

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Miami Ohio (32 Implied Total>

Plays/Game – 68.1 (87th)

Pass Rate – 51.93% (35th)

On the other side of this game, Brett Gabbert ($7,700) should continue to start at quarterback. Gabbert has some mobility, with 116 yards this year. He only averages 238.8 yards per game on 28.5 attempts, but he split time with A.J. Mayer ($7,300) to start the year. Overall, Miami Ohio has a 51.9% pass rate, giving their quarterbacks plenty of volume. Miami Ohio also has a 32-point implied team total, which ranks third highest on this slate. Gabbert only has one game above 300 yards, but that came in his most recent game against Ohio. He threw the ball 55 times for 492 yards and five scores, displaying his upside. However, he had not thrown for more than 207 yards in any other game this year. Either way, he is one of the stronger quarterback plays on the slate.

Miami Ohio uses a four-man committee at running back. Tyre Shelton ($3,800) leads the group with 9.5 touches per game to 9.1 for Keyon Mozee ($4,000). Shelton has out-touched Mozee in three of Miami Ohio’s last four. With that said, Kevin Davis ($3,500) and Kenny Tracy ($3,200) are also involved and they primarily function as pass catching backs. The four way rotation makes this difficult to decipher, but Buffalo does allow 220.8 yards rushing per game.

Jack Sorenson ($9,000) is fresh off catching 14 of 20 targets for 283 yards and a pair of scores. Sorenson now has four straight 100-yard games as one of the MAC’s premier receivers. He averages 106.2 yards per game on his 29% targets share. The WR2 here is Mac Hippenhammer ($4,900), who averages 63.3 yards per game on 7.1 targets. With Miami Ohio throwing more, this number has jumped to 8.3 in their last four. Jalen Walker ($3,300) is the WR3 here. He is a distant third with just 189 yards on 4.1 targets per game. The same goes for Andrew Homer ($4,200) at tight end. Sorenson and Hippenhammer are excellent plays here, with Walker functioning as a punt.

Akron vs. Western Michigan

Akron (18 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 71.9 (48th)

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Pass Rate – 48.87% (57th)

In a surprising turn of events, Akron benched D.J. Irons ($5,400) in favor of Zach Gibson ($5,000) last week. Akron lost 31-25, but Gibson played well, making him the likely starter moving forward. Gibson completed 77.4% of his 31 passes for 331 yards and two scores without any interceptions. Gibson offers very little on the ground, while Irons already has 305 cumulative yards rushing. It is possible Irons comes in for gadget plays on the ground, but Gibson likely continues to handle most of the snaps. This team has rotated quarterbacks on multiple occasions this season, making Gibson risky. However, with a full complement of snaps, he is a solid price-adjusted GPP play.

Jonzell Norrils ($5,700) has emerged as Akron’s lead rusher. He handled 19 touches in last week’s game and should only cede change of pace work to Anthony Williams ($3,400) moving forward. Norrils only averages 53.6 yards per game on 11.9 touches, but he has seen a role change. Norrils has at least 88 yards and a touchdown in back to back games. This is a tough matchup and Akron’s team total is low, but he is one of the few backs on the slate with a consistent workload.

George Qualls continues to miss time and his status has not been updated. Without him, Konata Mumpfield ($5,900) and Michael Mathison ($5,600) are the top two receivers. Mumpfield averages 7.6 targets per game to Mathison’s 7.1. The yardage is very close between the two with Mumpfield leading Mathison 562-560. Behind them, tight end Tristian Brank ($4,100) popped up for six targets last week, but he averages just 2.8 per game on the year. Andre Williams ($3,200) has been playing as the true WR3 without Qualls. He is now averaging 3.3 targets per game over Akron’s last three. These pass catchers are a bit overpriced here, but Akron should be forced to throw.

Western Michigan (44 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 79.2 (7th)

Pass Rate – 43.85% (84th)

On the Western Michigan side, Kaleb Eleby ($7,500) benefits from playing in the offense with the highest implied team total. Western Michigan is a run heavy offense, but they run 79.2 plays per game, keeping Eleby’s volume serviceable. Eleby currently averages 250.2 yards per game on 30.2 attempts. This also comes with plenty of upside. Eleby already has two games above 300 yards this year and another three above 250. While he only has 48 cumulative yards rushing this year, Eleby has one of the safest floors on the slate. With Akron’s poor defense on the other side, Eleby makes sense in all formats.

Sean Tyler ($6,300), La’Darius Jefferson ($5,200) and Jaxson Kincaide ($3,700) form a three way committee in Western Michigan’s backfield. Jefferson averages 16.8 touches per game to Tyler’s 15.0. However, Tyler has been more efficient with 76.2 yards rushing per game to 64.9 for Jefferson. Tyler has now out-carries Jefferson in back to back games, shifting the tide of this backfield. Either way, it will be a near even split, with Kincaide taking his usual 5.6 touches per game. Interestingly, he has been above that mark in each of the last three games for those looking at GPP dart throws.

Western Michigan has a pure alpha receiver in Skyy Moore ($8,300). Moore averages 102.8 yards receiving per game on 11.5 targets. Behind him, Jaylen Hall ($5,100) and Corey Crooms ($4,700) are also very involved. Crooms averages 6.7 targets per game to Hall’s 5.9. Hall still holds the yardage edge 572-540 on the year. All three options are excellent price adjusted plays. Western Michigan rotates their right ends, but Anthony Torres ($3,100) technically plays the most. he averages 1.6 targets per game. Taking at least one of the Western Michigan receivers looks like a strong move here.

Ohio vs. Eastern Michigan

Ohio (26.75 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 64.8 (113th)

Pass Rate – 43.24% (89th)

Another team rotating quarterbacks to start the year, Ohio has apparently committed to Kurtis Rourke ($6,200). Rourke is mobile, with 179 yards rushing in limited starts this year. However, volume is an issue with this offense. Ohio is one of the slowest and run-heaviest offenses in the entire country. Rourke only averages 177.7 yards passing per game on 26.3 attempts. For what it is worth, he now has back to back games with at least 288 yards passing. However, he had not eclipsed 175 in any game prior. There is also a risk that Armani Rogers ($6,100) siphons a few snaps as well due to his elite rushing ability.

Ohio utilizes a two-man backfield consisting primarily of De’Montre Tuggle ($7,000) and O’Shaan Allison ($3,900). These backs play clearly defined roles with Tuggle handling most of the early downs and Allison operating as the preferred pass catcher. On the year, Tuggle averages 69.1 yards rushing and 8 yards receiving per game on 12.4 touches. Allison averages 35 rushing and 16.7 yards receiving per game on 11.2 touches. Allison also has 13 targets over Ohio’s last two games, showing excellent pass catching ability. Eastern Michigan allows over 240 yards rushing per game, putting both players into the mix here.

Low volume and run heavy, this is the worst receiver group to target on the slate. Cameron Odom ($4,000) is the most consistent player here with his 84% route rate. Tyler Walton ($3,700) comes in at 56%, with Isaiah Cox ($4,900) at 48%. However, Cox has played more than Walton in three straight weeks and exceeded a 67% route share in each of those games. Again, none of these players average more than 40 yards receiving per game or 4.1 targets. Ryan Luehrman ($3,000) is the primary tight end, averaging 2.6 targets per game, but Adam Luehrman ($3,000) will also play a decent number of snaps. Odom and Walton are the best plays, but they are only live in tournaments.

Eastern Michigan (33.75 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 69.9 (69th)

Pass Rate – 53.13% (29th)

Cincinnati transfer Ben Bryant ($6,800) will quarterback Eastern Michigan here. He is not mobile whatsoever, with just six cumulative yards rushing this year. However, he does benefit from a pass heavy Eastern Michigan offense that passes the ball 53.1% of the time. On the year, he averages 243.2 yards per game on 28.7 attempts. This has allowed him to hit 300 yards on three occasions and eclipse 280 on another two. He is a solid option for those who cannot find their way into the $7,000 range.

Eastern Michigan uses three running backs, but Darius Boone ($4,300) leads the group with 11.2 touches per game. He has been out-gained by Jawon Hamilton ($4,500) on less opportunities, which looks like a problem moving forward. Hamilton averages 9.9 touches per game himself, but he has moved into more of a 50/50 split with Boone of late. Samson Evans ($6,500) is also involved and too expensive for his 7.1 touches per game. He plays a valuable role as the team’s pass catching back, but he is unlikely to lead the group in touches. Ohio allows 239.2 yards rushing per game, making this a live situation for GPPs.

Hassan Beydoun ($7,400) continues to emerge as Eastern Michigan’s top receiver. Beydoun averages 79.6 yards per game on 8.3 targets, but he has seen 9.8 targets per game in Eastern Michigan’s last three games. On the year, Dylan Drummond ($5,500) has been a consistent WR2. He averages 60.2 yards per game on 7.8 targets. This includes nine targets per game over Eastern Michigan’s last four. However, Tanner Knue ($4,800) started out of nowhere after not playing at all this year. Knue was a focal point of the offense last year, so his re-emergence is a solid sign for the offense. Knue saw nine targets in his debut, racking up 55 yards in the process. It is now possible that Knue pushes Drummond the WR2 role in this offense. Ultimately, all three are solid plays here. The tight end position is a three way split between Bryson Cannon ($3,900), Thomas Odukoya ($3,600) and Gunnar Oakes ($3,400).

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Looking for more DFS college football picks today and DFS college football predictions? Alex Baker, the No. 1 DFS player in the world, developed and maintains the DFS college football ownership projections for today. Check out our industry-leading DFS college football projections for DraftKings.

Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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