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College Football DFS: Week 12 DraftKings & FanDuel CFB Picks | Tuesday, 11/16/2021

Matt Gajewski

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Week 12 action kicks off with a Tuesday three-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. This college football DFS breakdown will look at both teams and provide information about each skill position player of note. Make sure to check out our projections, depth charts and datasheets for more information. With that said, let’s dive into the first iteration of the Week 12 CFB DFS picks for Tuesday’s matchup.

College Football DFS: Week 12 Tuesday CFB Picks

Toledo vs. Ohio

Toledo (30.25 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 71.4 (56th)

Pass Rate – 48.99% (56th)

At quarterback, Toledo turned to Dequan Finn ($8,200) after using Carter Bradley ($7,500) to start the year. Finn has excellent mobility, with 378 cumulative yards rushing this year. He has also shown a solid ceiling in the pass game. Finn only has one game above 300 yards this year, but he reached 461 in that particular game against Eastern Michigan. Finn has only eclipsed 30 pass attempts on two occasions, but he has only played four full games this year. Ohio allows over 200 yards rushing and 200 yards passing. With Finn’s mobility, he is equipped to take advantage of both matchups. Finn is an excellent option across formats here.

Bryant Koback ($8,200) is the best running back play on the slate. Toledo is favored against an Ohio defense, allowing 200.6 yards rushing per game. Koback also averages 93.6 rushing and 26.7 yards receiving per game on 18.1 touches. Behind Koback, Micah Kelly ($3,700) plays a change of pace role, averaging 5.2 touches per game. However, he has exceeded that in each of Toledo’s last three games, touching the ball at least eight times in each of those contests. Koback is the best running back play on the slate and Kelly is live for tournaments.

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At receiver, Bryce Mitchell went down with an injury and Toledo’s rotation expanded. Only Isaiah Winstead ($4,200) retained a route rate above 80% last week, but his target volume fell to three. Toledo did demolish Bowling Green, so take that for what it is worth. Devin Maddox ($3,600) has been the second-most targeted receiver. On the year, Winstead averages 5.7 per game, while Maddox checks in at 4.8. However, Maddox has 502 yards receiving to Winstead’s 419. Behind them, Jerjuan Newton ($3,200), Danzel McKinley-Lewis ($4,300) and Matt Landers ($4,800) all rotate snaps. Newton is the cheapest, making him the best play in a group without much separation.

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Ohio (23.75 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 64.3 (121st)

Pass Rate – 41.97% (103rd)

Ohio uses Kurtis Rourke ($6,300) as their main quarterback, but Armani Rogers ($6,100) will rotate in for a few snaps every game. Both quarterbacks are mobile. Rourke has 234 yards rushing and Rogers checks in with 499. As a passer, Rourke averages 184.3 yards per game on 25.1 attempts. Ohio is one of the run-heaviest and slowest teams in the country, limiting Rourke’s upside. However, Rourke has shown improvement in recent weeks, passing for at least 230 yards in three straight games. This includes games with 308 yards and 288 yards against Kent State and Miami (Ohio). Toledo plays superior defense to either of those opponents, but Rourke’s involvement and efficiency keep him in play here.

Ohio seems to prefer a running back by committee regardless of which backs are healthy. O’Shaan Allison ($4,200) missed last week’s game with an undisclosed injury, but De’Montre Tuggle ($6,700) did not see a considerable upgrade in his role. Allison will form a 50/50 time share with Tuggle when healthy, but the Ohio beat reporters are asleep at the wheel. Do not expect an update on his status and be prepared to take a zero, if rolling the dice on Allison. Tuggle only saw 16 touches in his “expanded role”, while Ohio added Jake Neatherton ($3,000) and Sieh Bangura ($3,200) to the mix. Tuggle is still in play based on Ohio’s elevated run rate, but this is a dicey situation regardless.

Because Ohio plays such a run heavy, low volume offense, all of their pass catchers are overpriced. Cameron Odom ($3,900) was the only receiver to eclipse 80% of the routes last week, but he only saw one target. Tyler Walton ($3,500) and Isaih Cox ($5,500) fell below a 70% route share, but Cox in particular has been involved. He now has three straight games with at least seven targets. With that said, no one on Ohio averages more than 40.6 yards receiving per game or 4.1 targets. This is a situation to avoid outside of tournaments.

Western Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan

Western Michigan (36.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 77.9 (14th)

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Pass Rate – 42.80% (98th)

At quarterback for Western Michigan, Kaleb Eleby ($7,200) has been efficient despite a run heavy attack. Fortunately, Western Michigan plays with a high play volume, allowing Eleby to average 246.9 yards passing per game on 29.2 attempts. Eleby is not the most mobile, with 48 cumulative yards on the year, but his upside as a passer is clear. Eleby has two games north of 300 yards this year, with only two below the 200-yard mark. This game easily has the highest total on the slate, putting Eleby squarely in play today.

Western Michigan typically runs a two-man committee, but they benefit from an elevated run rate and an excellent matchup against an Eastern Michigan defense allowing 204.9 yards rushing per game. La’Darius Jefferson ($4,500) has the better volume on the season, averaging 17 touches per game to Sean Tyler‘s ($7,700) 15.4. However, both backs saw 19 touches last week and Tyler received the only three running back targets. Tyler has also dwarfed Jefferson in terms of efficiency with 833 yards rushing on fewer carries than Jefferson’s 683. Ultimately, this is reflected in price and Jefferson is still involved enough to play in a variety of contests. Both are solid plays here.

At receiver, Skyy Moore ($6,500) has been extremely efficient with 96.4 yards per game on 9.8 targets. He is simply too cheap for his 32.4% target share in this shootout environment. Corey Crooms ($5,200) and Jaylen Hall ($4,700) round out the receiver room, averaging 6.7 and 5.7 targets per game. Hall has been more efficient with 636 yards to Crooms 613. However, Crooms has out-targeted Hall in back-to-back weeks, keeping both in play here. Moore in the top price adjusted play in the offense.

Eastern Michigan (31.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 71.6 (53rd)

Pass Rate – 55.28% (18th)

After splitting time with Preston Hutchinson to start the year, Ben Bryant ($6,800) has taken over as quarterback for Eastern Michigan. Bryant only has seven cumulative yards rushing this year, but he benefits from an Eastern Michigan passing attack, throwing the ball at a top 20 rate in the country. He averages 254.3 yards per game on 31.5 attempts, showing upside along the way. Bryant has 300 yards passing in three of his last four games and five times this year. With two other games above 285 yards, his upside is clear. Bryant is viable across formats here.

The three-way committee continues to Eastern Michigan behind Samson Evans ($5,900), Jawon Hamilton ($3,800) and Darius Boone ($3,000). Evans led the backfield with 12 touches last week, while Hamilton and Boone checked in with five and two. Western Michigan plays solid run defense and Evans received an appropriate price increase for his elevated role. With a 68-point total in the game, Evans can be used in GPPs.

At receiver, Eastern Michigan consistently uses three options. Hassan Beydoun ($6,200) is he WR1, averaging 80.1 yards per game on 9.1 targets. In Eastern Michigan’s last four games, this volume jumped to 11.8 targets per game. Behind him, Tanner Knue ($6,900) returned from injury and now has 22 targets and 182 yards in Eastern Michigan’s last two games. Still, Dylan Drummond ($5,700) has the exact same target volume in that span. With Beydoun and Drummond at similar or better opportunity, Knue is a contrarian GPP play based solely on price. All three options are excellent in this potential shootout.

Bowling Green vs. Miami Ohio

Bowling Green (17.75 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 65.4 (112th)

Pass Rate – 57.73% (10th)

Bowling Green attempts to throw the ball at an elevated rate, but inefficiency depresses their play volume outside the top 100. That means quarterback Matt McDonald ($5,000) still only gets of 33 attempts per game, despite a top ten pass rate. McDonald’s inefficiency also shows up in his 218.9 yards passing per game. McDonald does have a 300-yard game this year, but the downside is clear. Overall, McDonald has at least 200 yards in seven of ten games this year. While risky, he is a possible option in a tough matchup against Miami.

In the run game, Bowling Green has increasingly relied on Terion Stewart ($4,900) with 10 and 14 carries in the last two weeks. However, Stewart is not involved in the pass game whatsoever. Nick Mosley ($3,500) also carried ten times last week, while Jaison Patterson ($3,600) and Jamal Johnson ($3,900) continue to provide a change of pace. This is still a tough backfield to target with the potential for a four-way committee on a 17.75 implied team total.

In the receiving game, Bowling Green relies on three players. Tyrone Broden ($5,400) is the yardage leader with 543 on 55 targets. However, Austin Osborne ($4,100) has been increasingly involved. While he only has 443 yards on the year, his 74 targets dwarf Broden. Osborne makes sense as a cheaper option here. Christian Sims ($4,400) is a full-time player at the tight end position, but his 5.1 target average has dropped to 2.7 over Bowling Green’s last four games. Jhaylin Embry ($3,000) is the last player to mention here as a player averaging 2.8 targets per game. He also gets a couple carries.

Miami (Ohio) (33.25 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 67.9 (93rd)

Pass Rate – 51.23% (38th)

As a team Miami plays with an elevated pass rate but a depressed pace. After splitting time with A.J. Mayer to start the year, Brett Gabbert ($9,000) has functioned as Miami’s starter in recent weeks. Gabbert is somewhat mobile, with 123 yards rushing this year. He also averages an efficient 254.9 yards passing per game on 28.4 attempts. While expensive, Gabbert still plays behind his team’s 33.25 implied team total, giving him upside here.

In the run game, Miami utilizes a four-man committee. This is unfortunate, considering Bowling Green allows 215.8 yards rushing per game. Keyon Mozee ($4,300) led the team with 13 carries last week, but he only averages 9.5 touches per game. Tyre Shelton ($3,100), Kevin Davis ($3,400) and Kenny Tracy ($4,000) will all play roles, making this a GPP-only situation.

Jack Sorenson ($9,200) is the most expensive receiver on the slate for good reason. He averages 106.8 yards receiving per game on 8.8 targets. With that said, Mac Hippenhammer ($5,100) and Jalen Walker ($4,600) are excellent consolation prizes, averaging 7.1 targets and 4.5 targets per game themselves. Hippenhammer and Walker have 16 and 18 targets respectively in Miami’s last two games. While there is a blowout risk here, these two are too cheap.


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Alex Baker, the No. 1 DFS player in the world, developed and maintains the DraftKings CFB DFS ownership projections. Looking for more FanDuel CFB DFS picks and DFS college football picks today? Check out our industry-leading DraftKings college football DFS projections for this week.

Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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