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Awesemo’s Perfect Pitcher %Premium content

Alex Baker

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Awesemo break downs the chance of each pitcher on today’s slate being the highest scoring on FD or the top 2 on DK based on his projections. This will be a twice-a-week feature for premium Awesemo.com members.

In Fantasy MLB, it’s important to take strategy into consideration over raw projections. That is especially evident in a large slate like tonight’s 14 gamer, because there are so many options and ownership tends to concentrate on the top ones. Although these players are often the most likely to perform well, it can pay to take a more contrarian approach.

Today’s 8 game slate has a good range from ace pitchers to sleeper picks. Morton and Syndergaard will be two of the most popular plays tonight and combine for a large majority of the ownership on FanDuel. By my projections though, there’s only a 32% chance of one of these two being the highest scoring pitchers on the evening. With that in mind, I think going contrarian at pitcher tonight is a viable strategy. Michael Wacha stands out as a good pivot to differentiate yourself from the field.

On DraftKings the second most popular pitcher is projected to be Ross Stripling. Don’t let the -180 line on the game fool you; Stripling is a great value but a very mediocre option according to my rankings tonight (D points grade). I like high variance cheap guys when they are low owned but since Stripling only has a 9% shot to be a top 2 scoring pitcher on DK I like him more in cash than in GPP’s tonight. I like pivoting to a worse value play to give you a great chance of success if Stripling has a bad game; some options tonight are Jeff Samardzija, Chad Kuhl, and Homer Bailey. These guys I project to all have a better shot of being a top pitcher tonight than their projected ownership.

pitcherDK SalaryDraftkings PP%Draftkings OwnershipFD SalaryFanduel PP%fanduel ownersihp
Noah Syndergaard1150031.91%51.00%1000017.34%32.00%
Zach Eflin880012.86%1.00%77005.87%1.00%
Chad Kuhl770011.08%1.00%73005.59%1.00%
Jeff Samardzija640010.57%8.00%62005.77%1.00%
Mike Soroka75009.88%1.00%68004.72%1.00%
Jarlin Garcia53006.12%16.00%66002.37%1.00%
Charlie Morton1280027.48%32.00%930014.79%50.00%
Doug Fister45005.51%1.00%64002.52%1.00%
Kyle Freeland70005.27%1.00%70002.29%1.00%
Michael Wacha800018.11%19.00%850010.25%3.00%
Chase Anderson57007.58%1.00%60003.24%1.00%
Tyson Ross900018.56%8.00%80009.40%3.00%
Kyle Gibson82007.78%1.00%75003.49%1.00%
Nick Tropeano720011.84%11.00%72006.01%1.00%
Ross Stripling44008.85%45.00%58003.53%2.00%
Homer Bailey40006.59%2.00%55002.84%1.00%

Alex is better known to fantasy players by his handle "Awesemo" from seeing him in every big tournament in the industry. Playing poker professionally from 2009-2015, he heard that daily fantasy was the next big game picking up steam, and he quickly saw the potential of the relatively new game. Growing his bankroll from 2015-2016, he made a big step in 2017 by claiming the #1 overall ranking on RotoGrinders for the year. After completing his primary objective, he was looking for what's next. Attending dozens of fantasy events, Alex realized that everyone was repeating the same story: wanting to be a great DFS player while holding down a full-time job. He realized that the resources available to fantasy players while great weren't enough to help hobbyists get to the level of competing with the top pros. Having met Tom Kennedy during the FanDuel Scottish Open, the two decided to take on the realm of fantasy content along with co-founder Eddie Lai. Alex creates his own projections for each sport he plays, publishing rankings derived directly from them updated for each major slate. He also writes strategy content for how to become a better DFS player in his Game Plan series. You can contact Alex by emailing support@awesemo.com.

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