The highly anticipated Western conference finals matchup that seemed unavoidable all season is now upon us and with that comes some big tournaments across the industry to mark the occasion. Golden State vs Houston in a contest that might be more competitive than the actual NBA Finals. Huzzah!
We’re down to only Showdown slates now so take a peek at my primer on how to use ownership projections effectively for single-game tournaments. We’ll have rankings and ownership projections up as we get closer to Game 1’s tip off but after a weekend of thinking about the various outcomes with a bunch of things taped to my wall like Carrie from Homeland let’s get to the Switch and Hedge for my ruminations on this first matchup in the series.
Golden State Warriors (111.75 implied points, +2 on their last 10 games) at Houston Rockets (113.25 implied points, +10 on their last 10 games)
Golden State will be facing a slight pace down in this matchup and their Vegas implied team total is a bit lower than they encountered versus the equally fast paced Pelicans in the second round. No one on the Warriors’ side jumps off the page as having had particularly poor matchups versus Houston in the regular season but defensively the Rockets will try to make it hardest on Kevin Durant with the array of defensively minded wings on Houston’s side. The Rockets can throw Trevor Ariza, PJ Tucker, and Luc Mbah A Moute at Durant to make it harder on him and Mbah A Moute is a long enough player that he shouldn’t be able to go straight over the top of him like he did Jrue Holiday in the conference semifinal round. Durant’s price on FanDuel is still appealing and his DraftKings price is workable but I worry the most about him in Game 1. Steph Curry will also get some tough Chris Paul defense which will largely hinge upon what refs are calling; if the refs let Paul get away with some of the handsier defense that the NBA mostly doesn’t allow other teams to get away with versus Curry, a luxury CP3 has historically been granted versus Steph, he’s going to have a tougher time than one might expect. But Paul isn’t the defender he’s been in previous years and Curry will still get lots of chances to get going, especially if the defense does key in on stopping Durant. I like Curry and his ability to get Klay Thompson better shots off of any defensive attention he does get. Draymond Green looks the most interesting of the starters here, primarily because Golden State will need him to be the best, most fantasy-efficient form of himself for Golden State to succeed versus Clint Capela in this series. I expect Draymond to rip rebounds and drive the offense a lot versus Capela, as well as get a bunch of open looks from three as a result of the Rockets’ defensive attention on the more threatening shooters. Andre Iguodala should pick up the start again and if he does, he looks like a solid mid-priced play who can get results. I could see a world where Kevon Looney has some value, possibly as help on the boards if Capela gets going, but I’m not sure I’d bank on him without an obvious matchup need like there was versus Anthony Davis in round two.
The Rockets will get an increase in pace in the matchup versus the Warriors and that should benefit the guards and Clint Capela with more opportunity at picking up stats. James Harden looked a little lethargic down the stretch of the Utah Jazz series as Chris Paul picked up the slack but both players should be of interest tonight. This is the matchup they’ve known was at the end of the tunnel all season, it’s Chris Paul’s first conference finals appearance, both guys should come out motivated at home. Both Harden and Paul are of interest to me in the matchup and there is certainly a world where both guys have to produce en masse to keep up with the Warriors’ offense if they get hot. I’ve mentioned Capela a lot so far because he’s really the key to this matchup; if the Rockets’ pick and roll is as effective as it was versus Utah, Capela can have a great series and Houston can cause a lot of problems versus Golden State. Draymond Green will likely be on the floor a lot to try to stop Capela and the Warriors also have Javale McGee, Kevon Looney, and even Zaza Pachulia to deploy if Capela dominates the interior despite Green’s efforts. I’m interested in Capela tonight but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Warriors view stopping him as one of the most important parts to escaping the series given how they’re unlikely to fully stop Paul or Harden. PJ Tucker has been aggressive in getting looks in the playoffs and I don’t mind him again in Game 1. Both he and Trevor Ariza could be beneficiaries from the defensive attention Golden State will dedicate to stopping the Rockets’ more integral offensive pieces and they’ve both shown the ability to knock down open threes. Eric Gordon has had a few monster games versus Golden State this year and he’s a remorseless shooter whether his shot is falling or not so I can certainly see him getting a decent chance at hitting value tonight. Luc Mbah A Moute will see more of the floor in this series out of defensive necessity. I wish he were a little cheaper and I think a lot of people have been dying to play Mbah A Moute despite his limited offensive capabilities so while I like him, it’s important to temper some enthusiasm for a guy who exists primarily as a defensive body than a scorer or rebounder.
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There it is, now you know everything you need to know about Game 1 in the Western Conference. Make sure to follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags, subscribe to the Awesemo YouTube where we’ll talk about this and the MLB slate tonight at 6PM Eastern, and I’ll see you guys soon for more.
