DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Deep Dive- Tuesday, May 14 (FREE TODAY)

MLB Deep Dive- Tuesday, May 14

 

Pitcher

 

Chris Sale stands out as the clear top pitcher on tonight’s slate, despite a loaded top tier of pitching options. He is priced comparably to other top pitchers at $10,800 on DraftKings and $53 on Yahoo. There is a bigger gap between Sale and pitchers like Charlie Morton on FanDuel, but hitter pricing is so soft that it still should not be all that difficult to get to Sale- though I would have more exposure to someone like Morton on FanDuel than other sites because of the pricing difference. Sale started out slowly this season, but he has returned to dominant form in recent starts, including a 14-strikeout performance over eight innings against the Orioles in his most recent start. His fastball velocity is still down a bit from last season, but it is trending in the right direction, and he is now getting whiffs on the pitch that he was not getting earlier in the season. In Sale’s first four starts, he had raw whiff totals on his fastball of 0, 0, 1 and 1. In his four most recent starts, his raw whiff counts are 5, 6, 7 and 14. Despite his poor start to the season, Sale still ranks 10th in called strike plus swinging strike percentage among all starting pitchers who have thrown at least 500 pitches this season. He will face the Rockies outside of Coors Field, which is obviously a park downgrade for Colorado. The Rockies have a 114 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season, but they also have a 24.8 percent strikeout percentage. If we look through Colorado’s projected lineup player by player instead of as an overall team, we can see that, as expected, most of their production against left-handed pitchers comes from two players. Nolan Arenado has a 210 wRC+ against left-handed pitching since 2017 while Trevor Story has a 151 wRC+. Beyond them, Charlie Blackmon has a 118 wRC+ and Chris Iannetta has a 113 wRC+. Ryan McMahon also has a 113 wRC+ but he has just 75 plate appearances against lefties and he is left-handed so I give the edge to Sale. Nobody else on the roster has a wRC+ above 100 against left-handed pitching since 2017 and Mark Reynolds, Raimel Tapia and David Dahl all have strikeout percentages greater than 30 percent, while McMahon is at 28.9 percent and Story is at 27.2 percent. Sale will be popular tonight, but there are enough pitching options that it is very unlikely he garners as much ownership as he actually should based on his projection and percentage of reaching his target score.

 

Caleb Smith is my second-highest projected pitcher, even over bigger names like Noah Syndergaard and Charlie Morton. Smith showed very good strikeout stuff last season and that has continued into this season. He actually leads the entire slate with a 34.8 percent strikeout percentage and his 7.5 percent walk percentage is down from 10.1 percent last season. Smith also leads the slate with a 2.98 xFIP this season. He is able to generate swings and misses from right-handed hitters with three different pitches, posting an excellent 17.2 percent swinging strike percentage on his fastball, along with a 23.3 percent swinging strike percentage on his change-up and a 15.4 percent swinging strike percentage on his slider. Against lefties, Smith throws his slider over 50 percent of the time and has a 21.9 percent swinging strike percentage. Tampa Bay has been above average against left-handed pitching this season with a 106 wRC+, but they also have the fifth-highest strikeout percentage at 27.9 percent. Smith is my top pitcher not named Chris Sale, though I would roster Charlie Morton ahead of him on FanDuel because of the price difference.

 

Luke Weaver is getting expensive, but he has been an improved pitcher this season. He has struck out 27.2 percent of hitters with a 3.52 xFIP. The biggest difference for Weaver has been improved secondary pitches. Weaver has thrown his change-up 37.8 percent of the time to left-handed hitters this season with a 19.1 percent swinging strike percentage, .264 xwOBA and .095 xISO. Last season, he threw his change-up 28.4 percent of the time with a 14.5 percent swinging strike percentage, .312 xwOBA and .150 xISO. He has thrown his cutter 23.3 percent of the time to right-handed hitters this season with a 13.6 percent swinging strike percentage, .251 xwOBA and .116 xISO. He threw the pitch just 7.5 percent of the time last season with a 4.9 percent swinging strike percentage. Weaver’s release point on all of his pitches is different this year as well, as his vertical release point is higher than last season and his horizontal release point is closer to first base (meaning he may have changed his position on the rubber in addition to changing where he throws the ball from). I am more concerned about right-handed power against Weaver than lefties based on his current arsenal, and most of the power on Pittsburgh is left-handed. The Pirates have just a 20.3 percent strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season and I think that Caleb Smith has more upside for a slightly higher salary, but Weaver is not a bad consolation prize if we cannot quite afford Smith in a lineup.

 

Danny Duffy is coming off two good starts in a row, with his most recent coming against the Houston Astros. I do not quite know what to make of him. We have seen Duffy show flashes of upside in the past and we have also seen him very quickly regress to a terrible pitcher at times as well. Two starts ago, Duffy essentially scrapped his two-seam fastball and threw more sliders to right-handed hitters- a trend that I was very excited about and I expected that he would continue going forward because anyone in baseball with a working brain understands at this point that breaking balls are better than sinkers to opposite handed hitters. That was not the case, however, as he threw his sinker 20.4 percent of the time to right-handed hitters against Houston. Not surprisingly, he had just an 8.0 percent swinging strike percentage and 25.5 percent o-swing percentage compared to a 17.0 percent swinging strike percentage and 31.1 percent o-swing percentage in the start where he threw his slider 29.4 percent of the time to righties (though those numbers are also certainly influenced by one start being against Tampa Bay and one being against Houston). His matchup with Texas tonight is appealing as the Rangers have a .314 wOBA, 89 wRC+ and 28.4 percent strikeout percentage against left-handed pitching this season. Duffy has held left-handed hitters to a .252 wOBA with a 22.9 percent strikeout percentage since 2017 and most of the Rangers’ most dangerous bats (Choo, Mazara, Gallo, Odor) are left-handed. I will be rostering Duffy in this matchup because he grades out as the best mid-range pitching option and I will be paying close attention to his pitch mix in order to have a better idea what to expect from him in more difficult matchups.

 

Trent Thornton has shown flashes of upside this season, but those flashes have come with plenty of downside as well. Overall, Thornton has struck out 24.7 percent of hitters while allowing 1.69 home runs per nine innings and a 4.25 xFIP. He has struggled the most with left-handed power, allowing a .378 xwOBA and .223 xISO to lefties. While the Giants have five left-handed hitters in their projected lineup, only Stephen Vogt and Brandon Belt (who is questionable) have an ISO above .160 against right-handed pitching since 2017. In addition, this game will be played in San Francisco which limits left-handed power. The Giants have a .296 wOBA, 86 wRC+ and 23.8 percent strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season. It is a nice spot for Thornton.

 

Honorable Mention: Charlie Morton (bump him up if the Marlins are still projected to be highly owned at 6:30 because that is insane), Clayton Kershaw, Chris Paddack, Noah Syndergaard, Jack Flaherty, Joe Musgrove (better on DraftKings than FanDuel or Yahoo), Tyler Beede

 

Catcher

 

Yasmani Grandal is affordable in his matchup tonight against Jerad Eickhoff. Eickhoff has been good so far this season, but he has allowed a .359 wOBA and 1.5 home runs per nine innings to lefties since the start of 2017 with just an 18.0 percent strikeout percentage. Grandal has a .342 wOBA, 115 wRC+ and .230 ISO against right-handed pitching since the start of 2017 and he is facing Eickhoff in a park that plays up power.

 

Robinson Chirinos has come through for us recently and I want to go back to him tonight against Ryan Carpenter and a weak Detroit bullpen. Carpenter has allowed a .424 xwOBA and .270 xISO to right-handed hitters in his limited time in the Major Leagues. Chirinos strikes out frequently, but he also has a .396 wOBA, 146 wRC+ and .242 ISO against left-handed pitching since the start of 2017.

 

Honorable Mention: John Hicks, Wilson Ramos, Yadier Molina, Travis d’Arnaud

 

First Base

 

Matt Olson seems to have quickly regained his power stroke after breaking the hamate bone in his wrist. He has hit home runs in each of his last two games. Normally, I couldn’t care less if a player has hit home runs recently but, since Olson is returning from an injury that can temporarily sap power, it is nice to see. Olson has a .376 wOBA, 141 wRC+ and .295 ISO against right-handed pitching since 2017 and he faces Mike Leake who has allowed a .354 xwOBA and .190 xISO with a 10.0 percent swinging strike percentage to left-handed hitters this season.

 

Matt Carpenter remains inexpensive as he has gotten off to a slow start this season. He will face Mike Foltynewicz, who also has gotten off to a slow start this season. Foltynewicz has allowed a .322 xwOBA and .225 xISO to left-handed hitters this season. Since last season, he has allowed just a .290 xwOBA and .144 xISO to lefties so this is not a great matchup on paper if we assume that Foltynewicz is just going through a temporary stretch of poor pitching. The most appealing part of the matchup is simply Carpenter’s price tag. Carpenter has a .269 wOBA, 132 wRC+ and .241 ISO against right-handed pitching since 2017 and there is no reason not to expect Carpenter to eventually return to form.

 

Tyler White is a hitter who has trouble making contact but can hit the ball very far when he does. He  has a .391 wOBA, 153 wRC+ and .247 ISO in 117 plate appearances against lefties since 2017 and he will face Ryan Carpenter, who does not generate many swings and misses against right-handed hitters and has had no success at getting them out during his short time in the Major Leagues.

 

Honorable Mention: Paul Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman, C.J. Cron

 

Second Base

 

Mike Moustakas is inexpensive in his matchup against Jerad Eickhoff. As mentioned earlier, Eickhoff has had some success through his first few starts this season. His track record against lefties is not impressive, however, and Moustakas has plenty of power to take advantage of Eickhoff. Moustakas has a .349 wOBA, 118 wRC+ and .257 ISO against right-handed pitching since 2017.

 

Robinson Cano remains inexpensive across the industry despite posting a .364 wOBA and 136 wRC+ in 80 games last season. He has just a .309 wOBA and 97 wRC+ this season, but he has a .404 xwOBA and .246 xISO against right-handed pitching. He will face Jeremy Hellickson, who has allowed a .350 wOBA and .208 ISO to lefties since the start of last season. The Nationals also have one of the worst bullpens in baseball so Cano should see favorable matchups through the middle innings if the Mets are able to get to Hellickson early.

 

Keston Hiura is only in the player pool on DraftKings, but he is just $3,200 and he should slot into the Brewers’ starting lineup with Travis Shaw headed to the injured list. The ninth overall pick in the 2017 draft, Hiura is the Brewers’ top prospect and the 13th overall prospect in baseball (according to FanGraphs). The 22-year-old has a .449 wOBA, 164 wRC+ and .364 ISO through his first 147 plate appearances at AAA this season. Steamer projects him for a .317 wOBA, 96 wRC+ and .173 ISO in the Majors, but keep in mind that Hiura is young and had never played above AA until this season so he is difficult to project. There is a lot of talent here and he is one of the least expensive hitters on the slate.

 

Honorable Mention: Whit Merrifield, Jurickson Profar, Aledmys Diaz, Starlin Castro

 

Third Base

 

Alex Bregman is expensive, but he is one of the best hitters in baseball (and improving) and he has one of the best matchups on the slate tonight against Ryan Carpenter and the Detroit bullpen that has the sixth worst xFIP in baseball. Bregman has a .394 wOBA, 155 wRC+ and .243 ISO against left-handed pitching since 2017 and a .402 wOBA, 159 wRC+ and .310 ISO overall this season. He is quickly becoming matchup proof, but he happens to have an excellent matchup tonight.

 

Matt Chapman faces Mike Leake in a matchup that I like for home run upside. Leake does not miss many bats and has allowed a .416 xwOBA and .289 xISO to right-handed hitters this season. Leake relies on perfect command and the ability to induce weak contact. There is very little margin for error if he does not have his best stuff and we have seen him struggle so far this season. Chapman has a .361 wOBA, 131 wRC+ and .246 ISO against right-handed pitching in his career and he should only be improving.

 

Honorable Mention: Josh Donaldson, Yuli Gurriel, Jeff McNeil, Hunter Dozier, Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.

 

Shortstop

 

Carlos Correa has his power back this season with a .385 wOBA, 148 wRC+ and .267 ISO through his first 38 games this season. Since 2017, Correa has a .396 wOBA, 156 wRC+ and .176 ISO and that includes a lot of time that he was playing through injuries. It is difficult to afford all of the Astros because of their price tags, but they are top plays at their respective positions and Correa is no exception.

 

Adalberto Mondesi offers a ton of upside tonight against Shelby Miller and the Rangers. Mondesi has a .339 wOBA, 113 wRC+ and .226 ISO against right-handed pitching since last season and Miller has allowed a .437 xwOBA and .316 xISO to left-handed hitters this season. Miller has also allowed six stolen bases in his first 27.2 innings pitched this season. Kansas City has a ton of speed in their lineup, starting with Mondesi who has already stolen 13 bases this season. The Royals are expensive which should help keep their ownership down, but Mondesi has as much upside as any shortstop on the slate.

 

Manny Machado has a tough matchup against Clayton Kershaw, but he is too good a hitter to be just $3,700 on DraftKings with shortstop eligibility. He is more reasonably priced on FanDuel and Yahoo, so it is mostly a DraftKings specific play. Kershaw has held righties to a .296 xwOBA and .159 xISO this season, but Machado has a .379 wOBA, 140 wRC+ and .266 ISO against left-handed pitching since 2017. It is virtually impossible to find that kind of upside at his price tag and position.

 

Honorable Mention: Jorge Polanco, Eduardo Escobar, Xander Bogaerts, Marcus Semien

 

Outfield

 

George Springer is really expensive, but the matchup can’t get much better than Ryan Carpenter and the Tigers’ bullpen. Springer has been phenomenal this season with a .433 wOBA, 181 wRC+ and .329 ISO through his first 42 games. Since 2017, he has a team-leading .397 wOBA and 157 wRC+ along with a .245 ISO that is second only to Tyler White against left-handed pitching.

 

Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler are affordably priced against Felix Pena tonight in Minnesota. Cam Bedrosian is expected to be the opener for the Angels, but Pena is expected to follow him. Pena has allowed a .395 xwOBA and .308 xISO to lefties this season and a .340 xwOBA and .195 xISO to lefties since the start of last season. Rosario has a .357 wOBA, 123 wRC+ and .248 ISO against right-handed pitching since 2017 while Kepler has a .335 wOBA, 108 wRC+ and .208 ISO over that time. Marwin Gonzalez is a strong value play in this matchup as well.

 

Shohei Ohtani faces Kyle Gibson tonight in Minnesota. Gibson is coming off an excellent start against the Blue Jays, but he has struggled with left-handed hitters this season as he has allowed a .370 xwOBA and .254 xISO. Since last season, his numbers are better with a .337 xwOBA and .165 xISO. Ohtani is an excellent hitter and his price tag is depressed for unknown reasons. Since joining the Angels last season, Ohtani has a .426 wOBA, 177 wRC+ and .335 ISO against right-handed pitching. All of those numbers are second best on the team because of Mike Trout, but they are still phenomenal numbers.

 

Khris Davis homered twice last night and has another matchup that offers plenty of power upside tonight against Mike Leake. As mentioned earlier, Leake has struggled to limit power this season and has allowed a .284 actual ISO and .289 xISO to right-handed hitters this season. Davis is often thought of as a “lefty masher” but the truth is that he hits well against everyone. Since 2017, Davis has a .367 wOBA, 134 wRC+ and .294 ISO against right-handed pitching. All of those numbers are second best on the Athletics to Matt Olson over that time.

 

Honorable Mention: Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, David Peralta, Nick Castellanos, Bryce Harper, Michael Conforto, Victor Robles (stolen base upside), Stephen Piscotty

 

Top Stacks: Astros, Royals, Red Sox, Twins, Brewers

Author
Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].

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