Pitcher
Trevor Bauer
Pros: Bauer’s 27.6 percent strikeout percentage leads the slate and his 18.2 K-BB percentage is second to Brendan McKay. He faces the San Diego Padres, who enter the game with an active roster that has a 26.3 percent strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season. That mark is higher than every team in baseball except for the Detroit Tigers. San Diego is also without one of their best hitters as Fernando Tatis Jr. is sidelined for the rest of the season. While this removes a 31 percent strikeout percentage from the lineup, it also removes a very productive hitter. Bauer has had some struggles this season after an excellent season last year, but he has dominated right-handed hitters in particular. Righties have struck out 30.5 percent of the time against Bauer with a .287 xwOBA and .140 xISO. Bauer is also affordable on Yahoo at $47 and FanDuel at $10,200.
Cons: There are no glaring issues with Bauer, just issues in the context of the slate. Because it is a weak pitching slate and Bauer is the clear top projected pitcher, he will have high ownership. I am fine rostering Bauer at high ownership in this spot, but you need to be careful with the rest of your lineup because it does paint you into a similar roster construction as a large percentage of the field- especially on DraftKings where he is $11,700.
Overall Thoughts: As mentioned before, Bauer is my highest projected pitcher and I will be happy to get him into as many lineups as I can. The reason for avoiding him in some lineups is that he limits your creativity throughout the rest of your lineup and it is difficult to win a large field GPP if you are forced to the same plays as a large percentage of the field. Because of the way that I choose my lineups, I know that any Bauer lineups I have will be contrarian enough elsewhere to give me a chance at winning. He is easier to roster on FanDuel and, especially, Yahoo so the roster construction concern is less of an issue on those sites.
Wade Miley
Pros: Miley is facing the Tigers which automatically gets a pitcher included in the Deep Dive article these days. Detroit enters tonight’s game with the highest strikeout percentage against left-handed pitching this season at 26.5 percent with a .304 wOBA and 88 wRC+. Miley has struck out 19.9 percent of hitters this season, but his strikeout expectation increases because of the matchup with the Tigers.
Cons: Miley is priced up for this matchup, especially on DraftKings where he is $11,200. He is more reasonably priced on FanDuel at $9,000 and Yahoo at $44 but, when we compare him to pitchers with comparable projections like Kyle Gibson and Brendan McKay, we see that he is still more expensive than he should be.
Overall Thoughts: If Miley continues to be projected for relatively high ownership it will be difficult for me to get to a lot of him. There is no upside for a 19.9 percent strikeout percentage and 4.69 SIERA at an $11,200 salary (and very little at $9,000 or $44). The argument for rostering him is that the slate doesn’t have many good pitching options so there is a reasonable chance he is a top scorer just because other pitchers don’t do very well. High ownership projections less that appeal, however, since we aren’t gaining an advantage even if that outcome plays itself out.
Kyle Gibson
Pros: Gibson has a favorable matchup against the Chicago White Sox. Chicago’s active roster has a 25.6 percent strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season (fourth highest) with a .299 wOBA and 86 wRC+. Gibson is not a high strikeout pitcher, but he does have the fourth highest strikeout percentage on this slate (excluding Kolby Allard’s two starts). Chicago’s projected lineup is balanced with five righties and four lefties, but the middle of the order is entirely right-handed with Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, James McCann and Eloy Jimenez all hitting from the right side. Gibson has struck out 24.3 percent of right-handed hitters this season with a .313 xwOBA and .141 xISO, so he should be able to mitigate damage from the best hitters in the Chicago lineups.
Cons: Gibson is expensive on DraftKings at $10,100. He doesn’t have much upside at that salary, but he does at least come at a $1,100 discount from Wade Miley with a similar projection.
Overall Thoughts: Gibson is a decent pitcher who should be better than he is based on his stuff- namely his slider. He is one of the better pitchers on this slate and he is in a good matchup, so I have no issue with him being in my lineups. He is expensive on DraftKings compared to Zac Gallen and Brendan McKay, who project similarly, which will keep my exposure to him in check. On FanDuel and Yahoo he is priced much closer to McKay than he is on DraftKings, which gives us the opportunity to play the ownership game between those two.
Zac Gallen
Pros: Gallen has impressed in his first nine Major League starts after posting dominant numbers in 91.1 innings at AAA this season. He struck out 33.6 percent of hitters at AAA with a 5.1 percent walk percentage and 3.37 FIP. Through his first 45.1 innings pitched in the Majors, he has a 27.4 percent strikeout percentage and 3.37 FIP. His 11.6 percent walk percentage is concerning, but the highest walk percentage he has had at any level of professional baseball is 8.2 percent at AAA last season so I expect that his walks will decrease going forward. In addition to an above average strikeout percentage, his plate discipline numbers are also good. He has generated a 12.6 percent swinging strike percentage and 34.3 percent o-swing percentage through his first nine starts. He faces the Colorado Rockies tonight in Chase Field. Chase Field is a top 10 pitcher’s park and the Rockies are much less imposing outside of Coors Field. The Rockies’ active roster has struck out 24.1 percent of the time away from home this season with a .292 wOBA and 76 wRC+.
Cons: Gallen is a little expensive on DraftKings at $9,300 but his salary is lower than similarly projected pitchers Wade Miley and Kyle Gibson. He is more affordable on FanDuel and Yahoo where he is $8,000 and $33, respectively.
Overall Thoughts: Gallen will probably be one of my highest owned pitchers tonight as his stuff combined with the matchup and ballpark make him a top pitching option. He is more affordable than Gibson and Miley on DraftKings and it won’t be too difficult to pair him with Brendan McKay and fit some good hitters into my lineups. On FanDuel, it is a good idea to strongly factor in ownership between Gallen, Gibson and McKay because they all project similarly.
Brendan McKay
Pros: McKay is affordable across the industry at $7,500 on DraftKings and FanDuel and $35 on Yahoo. He faces the Seattle Mariners in Tropicana Field. The Trop is one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball and Seattle’s active roster has a 25.4 percent strikeout percentage against left-handed pitching this season. McKay has struck out 27.4 percent of hitters with a 6.2 percent walk percentage and 3.90 SIERA through his first seven starts. He leads the slate with a 21.2 K-BB percentage.
Cons: McKay hasn’t been going deep into games, averaging only 4.7 innings pitched per start. He has averaged 84.6 pitches per start with a high of 93 pitches. He will need to be efficient to reach six innings in about 85 pitches and it is difficult to be efficient when you are piling up strikeouts. McKay will be one of the highest owned pitchers on the slate.
Overall Thoughts: McKay evaded the DraftKings pricing algorithm for this slate. DraftKings priced up every reasonably good pitcher but overlooked McKay. This makes him stick out like a sore thumb and practically guarantees high ownership. There isn’t an easy way to pivot away from the ownership, however, because similarly projected players are much more expensive and cheaper players are much worse. For that reason, I expect that I will end up overweight on McKay on DraftKings and will be contrarian in other parts of my lineup. On FanDuel and Yahoo, we should be paying close attention to projected ownership because McKay, Gallen and Gibson all project similarly and are priced near one another.
John Means
Pros: Means is a DraftKings-only option as he is $6,400 and there is a lack of cheap SP2 options. Means will face the Kansas City Royals, who have been slightly below average against left-handed pitching this season with a .319 wOBA and 96 wRC+. Means has been reasonably good at limiting right-handed production, despite just a 16.8 percent strikeout percentage, with a .317 xwOBA and .163 xISO against. He has a very good change-up that keeps right-handed hitters off balance.
Cons: As mentioned before, Means has only a 16.8 percent strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season and the Royals’ projected lineup has seven right-handed hitters. Whit Merrifield, Hunter Dozier, Jorge Soler and Cheslor Cuthbert have all been above average hitters against left-handed pitching since the start of last season, and the first three are good overall hitters, so Means will have his work cut out for him with the top of the lineup.
Overall Thoughts: I don’t have a ton of confidence in Means as the top of the lineup is scary for Kansas City and it is hot and humid at Camden Yards. There aren’t any cheap options that I am confident in on DraftKings, however, so getting some tournament exposure to Means at relatively low ownership is somewhat appealing.
Trevor Williams
Pros: Same as Means, Williams is only an option for me on DraftKings where he is $5,900. Williams doesn’t project for a lot of raw points, but he projects as one of the better point per dollar options on DraftKings simply because most of the pitchers are so overpriced.
Cons: Williams enters tonight’s game with a 17.5 percent strikeout percentage and 5.04 SIERA. He has a tough matchup against the Nationals, who have a .333 wOBA, 101 wRC+ and .196 ISO against right-handed pitching on their active roster with a 21.0 percent strikeout percentage that ranks 21st. Despite having a reputation as a pitcher’s park, PNC Park has been the seventh best park for scoring runs this season and is in the middle of the pack for home runs.
Overall Thoughts: Williams projects similar to John Means. The matchup is a bit tougher but his salary is also a little lower. We currently have Williams projected for 21 percent ownership on DraftKings compared to 10 percent for Means. If that ownership projection holds throughout the day, I expect to be underweight on Williams with some of my Williams lineups pivoting to Means at lower ownership with a similar projection.
Zach Davies
Pros: Davies is only $4,200 on DraftKings, which is the only site that I am considering him on. He is making his first start back from the Injured List, but he wasn’t injured for long and didn’t even need to make a rehab start. There is simply more reward than risk for minimum priced pitchers who are capable of throwing around 100 pitches regardless of their talent level- especially on a slate where most pitchers are overpriced.
Cons: Davies isn’t good at pitching, he doesn’t have a great matchup and he will be popular on DraftKings because of his salary. He has struck out 14.9 percent of hitters this season with a 5.49 SIERA. The Cardinals are healthy now that they have returned Marcell Ozuna, Matt Carpenter and Yadier Molina to the lineup, so it is not as favorable a matchup as it has been for much of the season.
Overall Thoughts: I generally look to avoid rostering pitchers with a SIERA near 5.50 and a 14.9 percent strikeout percentage when they are projected for 27 percent ownership. Davies’ bargain basement price tag on DraftKings will get him into some lineups for me since he opens up so much, but I don’t expect to get close to 30 percent ownership because I have Zac Gallen plus Brendan McKay projected for a lot more points than Trevor Bauer plus Zach Davies for a similar combined salary. If Davies’ projected ownership falls, then he becomes more appealing since you can gain an advantage over the field if the play works out. With Davies projected to be in nearly one-third of all lineups, you aren’t getting much of an edge even if he pitches well because you still have to beat 10,000 teams with him in the large $10 on DraftKings, for example.
