DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo MLB DFS Deep Dive: September 28th

Note: The Yahoo slate starts at 2:15 EST and includes the White Sox/Tigers and Twins/Royals games. The biggest standout from those games is that Matt Boyd is only $30 and is the best pitching option on that slate.

Pitcher

Justin Verlander

Pros: Verlander is the best pitcher on the slate, as usual. He has struck out 35.0 percent of hitters this season with a 29.9 percent strikeout percentage and 3.01 SIERA. He faces a watered-down Angels team that is missing Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Justin Upton. Verlander should have no issues in this matchup.

Cons: Verlander is the most expensive pitcher on the slate by far and there aren’t any cheap pitchers that we can feel confident in pairing him with to offset the cost. In addition, this game has minimal importance for the Astros. Verlander has thrown 87 and 92 pitches in his last two starts and I expect him to be in the 90-100 pitch range again tonight.

Overall Thoughts: While Verlander is always a “good” play, he isn’t a priority for me on this slate. His very expensive price tag makes it tough to get the hitters that I want in a lineup with him and it is unlikely he posts a monster score that you have to have in your lineups in just 90-100 pitches.

Robbie Ray

Pros: Ray has struck out 31.3 percent of hitters this season and faces the San Diego Padres. San Diego is running out a below average lineup to close out the season due to injuries and trades and Ray should be able to have success against them. While he isn’t cheap, Ray is much less expensive than Verlander while offering similar strikeout upside.

Cons: Ray has walked 11.3 percent of hitters this season and his combination of high strikeout percentage and high walk percentage prevents him from going deep into games. He has also allowed 1.50 home runs per nine innings and there is significant risk of a blowup outing whenever we talk about a pitcher that walks a lot of hitters and also gives up a lot of home runs.

Overall Thoughts: I normally don’t roster Ray all that often because he is priced up for his strikeout potential and he comes with significant risk due to the walks and home runs. There isn’t much opportunity cost at the position on this slate, however, so I am very interested in Ray.

Luis Severino

Pros: Severino is one of the most talented pitchers in baseball and he is finally back in the Yankees’ rotation. He has struck out just north of 38 percent of hitters through is first two starts this season and 28.6 percent of hitters in 200.1 innings pitched since the start of last season. He is facing the Texas Rangers, who have the sixth highest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season and an 87 wRC+.

Cons: We shouldn’t expect Severino to go too deep into this game. He threw 80 pitches in his most recent start and my best guess is that we get 80-90 tonight in his final tune-up before the postseason. He also has the disadvantage of pitching in Texas where the weather is favorable for hitters compared to most parks this time of year that favor pitchers.

Overall Thoughts: On some slates I would write Severino off because he doesn’t have as high a ceiling as I would like at his salary. On this slate, however, because there is essentially no mid-range and all of the pitchers at the top of the pricing scale are dealing with similar workload concerns he is one of my favorite options.

Adam Wainwright

Pros: Wainwright gets to face the Chicago Cubs, who are just playing out the string. Javier Baez is out while Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Nick Castellanos are all banged up and could be rested in this meaningless game for Chicago. Wainwright is only $32 on Yahoo, where he is especially appealing.

Cons: Wainwright has only struck out 20.8 percent of hitters with a 4.71 SIERA this season. While a watered-down Cubs lineup makes him more appealing, he still isn’t an above average strikeout pitcher so he has a limited ceiling for his salary.

Overall Thoughts: I prefer Severino and Ray for a little bit more money but, if you can’t find it, Wainwright is a decent consolation option. I prefer him to similarly-priced pitchers Mike Foltynewicz and Cole Hamels and the mid-range is so weak that paying $9,400 for Wainwright isn’t as unappealing as it normally would be.

Steven Matz

Pros: Matz is available for $7,400 on DraftKings when every other pitcher in that price range is an opener, a starter on a pitch count, really bad or some combination of the three. Matz is an average pitcher with a 22.2 percent strikeout percentage and 4.43 SIERA this season. He is priced like the average pitcher that he is on a slate that is lacking any sort of mid-range pitching options.

Cons: Matz has a tough matchup against the Braves. He has allowed 1.58 home runs per nine innings this season and a .196 ISO to right-handed hitters. Atlanta has four right-handed hitters in their projected lineup with an ISO above .200 against left-handed pitching since the start of last season, in addition to Tyler Flowers at .180 and Dansby Swanson at .161. Freddie Freeman also has a .207 ISO for good measure.

Overall Thoughts: I hate the spot for Matz and want to roster Atlanta hitters, but Matz is also the cheapest pitcher that I have any sort of confidence in on DraftKings.

Hitters

Author
Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].

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