PITCHERS
Chris Sale [L – BOS]
Sale somehow remains below $11,000 on DraftKings despite a 51.5-fantasy point performance last week, and an 11-strikeout average over his last seven starts. Sale boasts an elite 14.4 percent swinging strike rate and 34.8 percent CSW rate this season, while striking out a slate-best 34.9 percent of batters faced.
His first month of the season was an unmitigated disaster, but since the beginning of May (7 GS) he is sporting a 2.20 xFIP with a 42.9 percent K-rate, 37.9 percent K-BB rate and 65.5 percent contact rate. Playing 100 percent of him on DraftKings wouldn’t be a stretch tonight, as he’ll face a Rangers team that ranks 28th in wRC+ (79) vs. left-handed arms. Their 23.7 percent K-rate vs. southpaws ranks 14th in baseball, but that hardly matters for an elite strikeout artist like Sale. He’s tonight’s top pitching option across the board, and it isn’t very close. I don’t understand how he’s projected for only 36 percent ownership on DraftKings, seven percent on FanDuel and 31 percent on Yahoo!
Masahiro Tanaka [R – NYY]
Tanaka has endured a disappointing campaign through two-plus months, but he’s cheap enough to deploy on Monday night. The Yankees’ right-hander is $7,900 on DraftKings and $38 on Yahoo! in an exploitable matchup with the Mets, who despite their middle of the road K-rate (22.7%) own an unimposing 4-run implied total in the Bronx. Tanaka is a -183 ML favorite at home, and should earn run support with Jason Vargas toeing the rubber for the Mets — no, I don’t think he’s recent production is sustainable). Tanaka’s 21.4 percent K-rate is disappointing, but he’s generating swinging strikes north of 11 percent and boasts a 30.4 percent CSW rate that ranks fourth on tonight’s nine-game slate. He’ll need to get more whiffs on his slider before we begin to see high-upside performances, though.
Michael Wacha [R – STL]
Wacha will be chalk tonight at $6,000 on DraftKings, $6,300 on FanDuel and probably even at $32 on Yahoo!. He isn’t a very good pitcher, striking out only 20.4 percent of batters with 8.5 percent swinging strikes, but the Marlins are the worst team in baseball. Miami runs out a righty-heavy lineup each night, which would generally bode well for a right-handed arm, but Wacha has struggled mightily vs. same-handed hitters this season (.417/.308/3.03 wOBA/ISO/HR/9) and is allowing a .329 wOBA for his career. Wacha is the clear cash game SP-2 tonight, but looking elsewhere in tournaments simply makes too much sense given the long list of viable alternatives. Hell, I’ll likely even run out some Miami stacks with Wacha projected to carry heavy ownership into Monday’s slate.
The obvious benefit to rostering Wacha, however, is Miami’s dead last ranking in wOBA (.281), ISO (.114) and wRC+ (77) vs. RHP. Their 24 percent K-rate is the league’s eighth worst mark, and they own a 3.9-run total on the night. Wacha is a -137 ML favorite inside the spacious Marlins Park.
Yu Darvish [R – CHC]
Darvish owns the fourth highest K-rate (26.4%), fifth highest swinging strike rate (13%) and third lowest contact rate (70.8%) on Monday’s slate. He’s also pitching inside the league’s most hitter-friendly venue, which is why his salary has plummeted to $6,200 on DraftKings, $7,100 on FanDuel and $32 on Yahoo!. Darvish presents massive risk against the Rockies at Coors Field, but he’s also striking out 28.5 percent of batters over his last ten starts with a semi-respectable 4.01 xFIP over that span. Walks have been a serious issue for Darvish, but he still presents more upside than anyone in his price range. Mixing in some Darvish exposure in your non-Rockies lineups makes sense on a night where he’s projected to have minimal ownership at a dirt cheap cost.
Kevin Gausman [R – ATL]
Gausman is striking lefties out at a strong 26.6 percent clip this season, and actually boasts a strong overall swinging strike rate at 13.2 percent, which ranks third best on Monday’s slate. He’s striking out a batter per inning, too, so it’s not like Gausman doesn’t offer upside at discounted cost.
Tonight’s meeting with Pittsburgh surely isn’t perfect, but the Pirates will likely run out six left-handed hitters, who Gausman has done a very solid job of limiting power against (0.95 HR/9) in 2019. He’s also been unlucky against lefties, allowing a .341 wOBA with a .360 BABIP despite ceding very little power or hard contact with nearly 50 percent ground balls induced. His bottomed-out price tag is garnering some attention across the industry, but Gausman is at least capable of racking up strong strikeout totals thanks to a strong splitter (20% Whf) and decent enough fastball. Having Tyler Flowers behind the dish would make Gausman a more appealing play tonight.
Joe Musgrove [R – PIT]
Musgrove is almost free on DraftKings, weighing in at $5,200 in a road meeting with Atlanta. The Braves are a quality offense, but Musgrove is cheap enough to roster in tournaments, especially if they run out six righties in tonight’s lineup. Ultimately, Musgrove isn’t that much riskier than Wacha when you factor his salary into the equation. You aren’t touching him in cash games, but a 21.9 percent K-rate and 13.5 percent swinging strike rate vs. RHH is respectable enough to consider at a near minimum salary price point.
Honorable Mention:Â Jerad Eickhoff [R – PHI] vs. ARI [GPP]
HITTERS
STACKS
Colorado Rockies (5.9) vs. Darvish [RHP]
New York Yankees (5.6) vs. Vargas [LHP]
Tampa Bay Rays (5.4) vs. Anderson [RHP]
Philadelphia Phillies (5.2) vs. Clarke [RHP]
