PITCHERS
Kenta Maeda [R – LAD]
Maeda is projected to have only 17 percent ownership on DraftKings and nine percent on FanDuel despite being priced at $9,000 and $8,600, respectively. Maeda’s pitch count has been an obvious issue, but I’m not sold on it being a serious concern going forward. Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Walker Buehler and even Rich Hill have had no legitimate issues with pitch count this season, so it doesn’t make sense to assume Maeda would be the only starter routinely pulled after 80 pitches.
Maeda is a slate-best -233 ML favorite at home against the Giants, whose 3.3-run implied total is tied for the lowest mark on Monday night. The Giants rank 27th in wOBA (.300), 26th in ISO (.162) and 27th in wRC+ (86) vs. right-handed arms, while their active roster is striking out at 22.7 percent on the year (14th). Maeda performs much better vs. same-handed bats (29.7 K%, 0.73 WHIP), but Brandon Belt should be the only formidable lefty he’ll face tonight. His ownership simply seems too low on a slate that’s devoid of quality pitching.
Patrick Corbin [L – ARI]
Corbin has seen his price tag plummet over the last month, due in part to three straight highly underwhelming performances. The 29-year-old southpaw boasts ample upside, though, with the second highest K-rate on Monday’s slate (26.4%) behind only Luis Castillo. Corbin throws his slider 34 percent of the time vs. right-handed hitters, and is inducing an elite 24.5 percent whiffs on the year.
Corbin is allowing too much power to righties (1.36 HR/9), but the Phillies have already lost Andrew McCutchen for the season and could be without J.T. Realmuto again tonight. Philadelphia’s lineup is becoming more watered down by the day, and Corbin is a -140 ML favorite at home. At $8,200 on DraftKings he’s cheaper than Wade Miley and is the eleventh highest priced pitcher on this 12-game slate.
Mike Clevinger [R – CLE]
Clevinger was dominant in a pair of starts this season before a back injury sidelined him for more than two months. Clevinger had generated 21 percent swinging strikes and 40.9 percent called plus swinging strikes in meetings with the Blue Jays and White Sox, racking up a combined 22 strikeouts through 12 innings of work. He held them to a combined two hits and zero runs, while striking out 52.4 percent of batters faced.
Clevinger obviously can’t sustain such a torrid pace, but he can continue to churn out the K’s against the Rangers, whose 23.9 percent K-rate vs. RHP is the league’s tenth highest mark. The problem here is Clevinger threw only 58 and 67 pitches in his rehab assignments, so it’s hard to project him for more than 80-85 pitches on Monday.
That said, the Rangers are already missing Joey Gallo, and will likely be without Hunter Pence, Nomar Mazara and possibly Willie Calhoun tonight. Clevinger will face a skeleton crew lineup in Arlington, and is well worth considering in tournaments. He’s only $8,700 on DraftKings. I have no interest in Clevinger on Yahoo, where he’s the highest priced pitcher on the night.
Danny Duffy [L – KC]
Duffy is striking righties out at a paltry 18.4 percent clip this season, but it’s looking like he’ll be chalk tonight against the Mariners. At $7,500 on DraftKings and $7,300 on FanDuel, Duffy is projected to carry 38 and 27 percent ownership, respectively. Seattle’s league-high 27.4 percent K-rate vs. left-handed pitching certainly adds to Duffy’s appeal, along with the recent loss of Edwin Encarnacion and Mitch Haniger’s extended absence.
The current version of Seattle’s lineup is highly unimposing, and although Duffy isn’t generating a ton of strikeouts vs. RHH, he’s holding them to a .290/.161 wOBA/ISO split with 0.89 HR/9. He has been a bit lucky (4.91 vs. RHH), but Duffy should have the advantage in this matchup, as the Mariners ran out five lefties against a southpaw yesterday and could do something similar tonight. Duffy is punching same-handed hitters out at 24 percent for his career with a 3.58 xFIP and 0.43 HR/9 allowed.
Miles Mikolas [R – STL]
Mikolas was trashed by the Marlins last week, allowing five runs on eight hits across five ugly frames. He simply isn’t a very good pitcher, but that doesn’t mean Miami is going to blow him up against tonight. The Marlins rank dead last in wOBA (.288), ISO (.118) and wRC+ (80) vs. right-handed pitching, while striking out at the eighth highest clip (24.3%). They’ll produce some runs from time to time, but this is still the best matchup for opposing righties in all of baseball. Mikolas is striking same-handed hitters out at an underwhelming 18.8 percent clip, but walks them only 1.7 percent of the time with a 0.96 WHIP on the season.
I don’t think Danny Duffy deserves more than ten percent additional ownership over Mikolas, who is discounted by $1,100 on DraftKings, is a -201 ML favorite at home, and faces a Marlins team that owns the lowest total on Monday’s slate (3.3). As much as I dislike rostering Mikolas, he’s cheap enough to deploy on a slate that doesn’t provide many quality alternatives.
Felix Pena [R – LAA]
Pena’s pitch limit remains unclear tonight, when he is expected to handle the long-relief role for Los Angeles. Pena owns a stellar 13.5 percent swinging strike rate and 30.7 percent CSW rate this season, and is striking both handed hitters out 24-plus percent of the time. He’s much more effective vs. righties, though, thanks to a strong slider (24% Whf) and 50 percent ground balls.
Pena should face five righties in the Blue Jays lineup, and should have no trouble earning some run support with Edwin Jackson toeing the rubber for Toronto. He’s worth a look in tournaments where ownership should be negligible. The Jays are striking out at a 24.5 percent clip vs. RHP (7th), while ranking bottom five in wOBA (.299), wRC+ (86) and 20th in ISO (.178)
Jhoulys Chacin [R – MIL]
Chacin is not a good pitcher, and has allowed way too much power and too many base runners in 2019. He has, however, struck out 22.2 percent of right-handed hitters, and isn’t the craziest pitching option on Monday night. The Padres will likely have six righties in their lineup tonight, and lead the league with a 26.1 percent K-rate vs. right-handed arms.
Petco Park is a nice park shift for Chacin, and should help to mask his low ground ball rate. San Diego’s 4.2-run implied total is the seventh lowest mark on the night, and Chacin is cheap. That’s about all there is to it.
Mike Fiers [R – OAK]
Fiers is garnering significant ownership tonight as a monster -217 ML favorite against the Orioles, who own a 3.4-run implied total at O.Co. But you’re really only rostering him tonight in the hopes that he can pitch deep into this game and prevent any runs. Fiers’ 7.7 percent swinging strike rate is brutal, and his K-rate vs. lefties and righties alike is below 17 percent. Fiers has finished with fewer than 20 DKPT in all but two of 15 starts this season, one where he finished with 20.5 DKPT and the other was the bizarre no-hitter. The upside is extremely limited here, unless you think he’s got another no-no in the back pocket.
Honorable Mention: Zack Wheeler [R – NYM]Â @ ATLÂ [Yahoo]
HITTERS
STACKS
Angels (6.1) vs. Jackson [RHP]
No explanation needed.
Nationals (5.5) vs. Arrieta [RHP]
Washington’s implied total has risen from 4.8 to 5.5, and Arrieta has struggled mightily vs. left-handed hitters this season (.380 wOBA, .238 ISO, 2.39 HR/9, 5.76 xFIP).
Royals (4.2) @ Milone [LHP]
Milone is due for serious regression vs. RHH, sporting a .205 BABIP, 4.98 xFIP, and is already ceding 1.65 HR/9 on the year. He’s generating a pathetic 27.7 percent ground balls vs. opposite-handed bats.
Athletics (5.2) vs. Cashner [RHP]
A’s bats are too cheap to ignore against a highly pedestrian righty in Cashner.
