Finding the right mix of low-owned golfers and chalk is critical when making fantasy golf picks this week. With 144 players in the field at this week’s PGA Tour event in the tropical paradise of the Riviera Maya, Mexico, for the Mexico Open 2022, there will be plenty of opportunities to find golfers that not many gamers know about and create the edge necessary to score big. For this week’s tournament, let’s break down some of the best against-the-grain fantasy golf picks on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Contrarian Fantasy Golf Picks: Mexico Open 2022
Check out the entire field’s PGA DFS ownership projections before making your predictions and fantasy golf picks on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Awesemo’s Fantasy Golf Ownership: Top 10
As of 8:30 a.m. ET Tuesday
Click here for the full field and the most up-to-date projections
PGA DFS Favorites: $9,000 and Above
- 15 golfers
Jon Rahm is not shy about playing in fields that are not particularly strong, and while some may think he dominates those events, that is not the case at all. Still, his value is hard to ignore this week, and he could be the first 50%-owned golfer this year in a full slate. He could be owned well over that number in the limited-entry fields, as he still grades out as one of the best values on the slate.
Tony Finau and Abraham Ancer’s ownership is also getting a boost after the withdrawal of Daniel Berger, who likely would have been priced around $10,900, filling a large gap between Finau and Rahm. Finau and Ancer are both likely to be owned over 15% this week, their highest price points of the year. Gary Woodland has been trending for some time, although that did not help his owners at the Masters, where he missed the cut. Still, his ownership should push 20% with such a weak field, as will Chris Kirk’s and Aaron Wise’s. Sebastian Munoz, like Ancer, has withdrawn from a few events over the past month or so, but around 15% of the field can overlook that fact. Cameron Tringale, Kevin Streelman and Matt Jones are the last of the golfers priced above $9,000 this week to have an ownership projection of at least 10%.
Top Contrarian Fantasy Golf Picks
There are five golfers that have a projection of less than 10%, which is much higher than normal for the top price range. Kevin Na and Patrick Reed are seeing their highest prices of the year, and with that a bit of sticker shock and lower ownership. The same can be said for Cameron Champ, Brendon Todd and Russell Knox, all of whom come with less than 10% projected ownership. Among them, Champ has been trending and had a season-best 10th place finish at the Masters a few weeks ago, while Na, Reed and Todd have each made three straight cuts after missing multiple in a row. That leaves Knox, who has made eight of his last nine cuts but has only one top-10. Champ will lead this list given the course setup and trending form. Reed, with a projection of 67.6 points, would be the pick based on Awesemo’s DFS projections.
PGA DFS Mid-Range ($8,900-$7,500)
- 21 golfers
When the highest-priced golfer in the field is projecting at 40% or more, that inevitably leads to lower ownership across the top plays. Given that there are another five or so golfers from the top of the board with projections at or above 15%, it really thins out this next pricing level. Just five of the 21 golfers in this range will be owned over 10%, which is a rare occurrence:
- Charles Howell III
- C.T. Pan
- Mark Hubbard
- Adam Long
- Scott Stallings
It will leave a number of golfers projected between 8% and 10% this week:
- Doug Ghim
- Sahith Theegala
- Aaron Rai
- Davis Riley
- Lanto Griffin
- Taylor Moore
- Anirban Lahiri
- David Lipsky
- Pat Perez
While few names above will be owned over 10%, there are not many that will be owned under 5% either. Only Carlos Ortiz and Patrick Rodgers have projected for ownership less than 5% this week. Others like Chad Ramey, Austin Smotherman, Wyndham Clark, Nate Lashley and J.T. Poston are all projected between 5% and 10% ownership this week.
Top Contrarian Fantasy Golf Picks
Of all the golfers with less than 10% projected ownership this week, Lanto Griffin and Aaron Rai have the two highest projected points, coming in at 60.4 and 60.3 points, respectively.
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- 99+ golfers
In weaker fields, the talent level and ownership allocated to it thin out extremely quickly. Of the 100 or so golfers left in the field, only two of them right now have projected ownership of greater than 10%: Alex Smalley and Chase Seiffert. The following should be owned over 5% this week but are very unlikely to be above 10%:
- Nick Taylor
- Greyson Sigg
- Adam Svensson
- Tyler Duncan
- Emiliano Grillo
- Scott Piercy
- Kurt Kitayama
- Peter Uihlein
- Nick Hardy
- Robert Streb
- Vince Whaley
- Hayden Buckley
- Bo Hoag
Grillo is projected to score the most points among those golfers according to Awesemo’s PGA DFS projections, with a projected score of 56.8 points. This comes in as one of the best values on the slate as well. Other top values include Dylan Wu, Chez Reavie and Camilo Villegas. Be sure to check out how all of the Awesemo experts are ranking these golfers in the Pro Plays Tool.
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