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Fantasy MMA DFS Picks: UFC on ESPN 4: Leon Edwards vs. Rafael Dos Anjos

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Josh Engleman breaks down the Fantasy MMA DFS Picks: UFC on ESPN 4: Leon Edwards vs. Rafael Dos Anjos card (FREE).

# 12 Leon Edwards (-126) vs. #4 Rafael Dos Anjos (+112)

This is a quality main event which could have major ripples in the welterweight division. We last saw Leon Edwards in March when he took a split decision win from Gunnar Nelson along with a three piece and a soda from Jorge Masvidal. Meanwhile, Dos Anjos is coming off a fourth round submission win over Kevin Lee just two months ago. This is a huge fight for Edwards. I believe a win here gets him the matchup with Jorge Masvidal. If Colby Covington gets through Robbie Lawler on August 3, I expect him to get the first shot at Kamaru Usman. If not, it’s probably Masvidal, although Tyron Woodley is still lurking. In a perfect world, Colby wins (not that I like him) and we get Edwards/Masvidal for the next crack, but Dos Anjos probably has something to say about that. If I’m taking anyone in this fight, it’s absolutely Dos Anjos. At $7900, he’s underpriced for a main event, particularly for someone with his output and finishing ability. Right now, the fight is -165 to go to a decision. I would be shocked if Dos Anjos wins this fight and doesn’t finish north of 100 DK points. He’s one of my favorite plays of the night, cash or GPP.

Walt Harris (-153) vs. Aleksei Oleinik (+136)

Let’s get this out of the way now. I’m a huge fan of Oleinik. This guy can submit every single heavyweight on the planet. If he’s able to get Walt Harris on the ground, I’m not sure Harris ever gets back up. Oleinik was finished in his last fight against Alistair Overeem, while Harris picked up a KO win against Serghei Spivac. Obviously, there’s a bit of a gap in talent between their last two opponents. A finish is expected in this one, with decision odds currently sitting at +400. I expect to have a decent amount of both guys because of the chance of a quick finish. Because of the price difference, I expect to have more Oleinik than Harris. Harris’ last legitimate loss came to Fabricio Werdum in October 2017. After that, he lost by DQ to Mark Godbeer and had his decision win over Andrei Arlovski overturned after testing positive for LGD-4033 (whatever that is). Sure, he gets finishes, but they’re always against fighters that are clearly inferior. Meanwhile, you have to murder Oleinik in the cage to get him out of there. I’m honestly a little surprised at the price difference. Give me Oleinik in GPPs.

Other Fights

Greg Hardy makes his return to the octagon as a slight underdog to Juan Adams. You’ll want exposure to both guys in GPPs, as the expectation is this fight ends early. I slightly prefer Adams, but I’ll be paying close attention to their ownership. If either guy separates from the other, I’m more likely to just go the other way. This one is just super close. Dan Hooker and James Vick is a fun fight for two guys trying to stay in the mix at lightweight. Hooker dropped his last fight to Edson Barboza, but he went into that fight on a four-fight winning streak with all four ending in a finish. I don’t love his price, so I can’t recommend a ton, but I think he’s the better fighter. Vegas odds say Andrei Arlovski vs. Ben Rothwell is a 50/50 shot of going to decision. That means 50% of the time, we’ll be making a 15 minute torture video. Don’t forget, Arlovski once beat Brendan Schaub by decision after landing just 12 significant strikes and no takedowns. He’s entering the cage on a four fight losing streak, with all four being boring decisions. Can we just remove this fight from the card? Dom Pilarte is the most expensive fighter on the card, and the biggest favorite, but I’m a little nervous about using him. This fight is a coinflip to go to decision, with Pilarte much more likely to finish the fight by submission. If this goes the whole way, I don’t think he’ll justify his price tag.

Josh is the Director of Content for Awesemo.com where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections across all sports. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Awesemo's Premium Slack. You can contact Josh by emailing support@awesemo.com.

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