Monday paves way to a 10-game MLB main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel with a flurry of starting pitchers priced in the mid-range. Leaning on Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool and daily fantasy baseball point projections, we’ll delve into some of the most competitively projected pitching options to start the week off right, such as Shohei Ohtani dueling with Tyler Glasnow, this time as a pitcher. With potential needs for salary relief, we’ll also address one of the best available candidates in the mid- and lower-cost tiers as well.
To find the best daily fantasy baseball picks to pair with the top starting pitchers, check out EMac’s Spotlight Hitters & Top Stacks article, as well as our MLB DFS picks cheat sheets.
Top Daily Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers | May 3
Tyler Glasnow: TB at LAA — DraftKings $10,300; FanDuel $10,800
Tyler Glasnow draws the start for Tampa Bay against the Angels. Glasnow has been having one of his best seasons to date, besting last season’s 38.2% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate while surrendering home runs at a lower rate. Averaging 29.5 DraftKings and 49 FanDuel points over his six starts this season, Glasnow’s 43.4% fly-ball rate will be put to the test against the Angels.
Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool gives Glasnow a 27.6% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and 9.9% chance of being the top pitcher on FanDuel. That correlates with his MLB point projections of 21.78 on DraftKings and 37.21 on FanDuel, the highest projections in Monday’s player pool. As the most costly pitching option on both sites, Glasnow’s value ratings drop a bit — a 6.7% top-two value on DraftKings and 1.6% top value on FanDuel. MLB DFS ownership projections of 25.3% DraftKings and 11.9% on FanDuel suggest Glasnow will be popular, but not egregiously.
Glasnow is scheduled to face a lopsided Angels order of seven righties. As a larger sample size, Glasnow had a 37.9% strikeout rate, 1.19 WHIP, 4.86 FIP and a terrifying 2.45 HR/9 against righties last year. The numbers were nearly identical against lefties, only with fewer home runs allowed. Glasnow has an uphill battle with Mike Trout (third) hitting .340 off of right-handed pitchers through last season. He will be joined by Anthony Rendon (fourth) recently returning from injury and Jared Walsh (fifth) smashing a .389 ISO with just a 12.5% strikeout rate against righty pitchers since 2020. With the cost shedding some ownership on FanDuel, Glasnow is a spend-up option with extremely high risk/reward value.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value C
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value B
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Shohei Ohtani: LAA vs. TB — DraftKings $7,600; FanDuel $8,900
Shohei Ohtani is averaging 19.38 DraftKings and 33.66 FanDuel points in three starts as a pitcher for Los Angeles. Facing a strikeout-inclined Rays roster may play directly into Ohtani’s abilities, potentially paying off his fantasy salary on both sites with ease.
Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool gives Ohtani a 17.4% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and 7.6% top-pitcher on FanDuel. His frugal prices also give him a 15.9% top-two value chance on DraftKings, though he is down to 3.2% top value on FanDuel where he’s significantly more costly. Awesemo projects Ohtani’s MLB DFS ownership for 28.4% on DraftKings and 12.2% on FanDuel.
The Rays lineup is split evenly with four lefties and righties and one switch-hitter. Ohtani has a 34.8% strikeout rate, .197 average against, 1.23 WHIP and 3.64 FIP agianst righties in his career. His brief stint against lefties has produced fewer strikeouts but a lower home run rate and identical average against. With threats from the Rays posed by Randy Arozarena (.276 ISO) and Brandon Lowe (.262, 138 wRC+ against righties since 2020), Ohtani will have his work cut out for him. However, Tampa is striking-out 24.9% collectively against right-handed pitching over the past season, and Ohtani’s strikeout propensity makes him an excellent option for Monday.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points B, Value C
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value B
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Kenta Maeda: MIN vs. TEX — DraftKings $7,800; FanDuel $6,900
Kenta Maeda has had a rough start to 2021 with a bit of bad luck, but he’s proven his stuff is still intact. He is averaging just 7.7 DraftKings and 18.4 FanDuel points in five starts, but he is also coming at a discount on FanDuel in an excellent matchup with the Rangers. Velocity back up around 92 mph could help his cause, and the Rangers lead the league in strikeouts. Awesemo gives Maeda a 17.5% chance of being a top-two value on DraftKings and 10.8% top value on FanDuel. His ownership, however, is pushing 30% on both sides, so differentiation will be necessary elsewhere.
Maeda is due to face five lefties. He had a 38.2% strikeout rate, .149 average against and 0.55 WHIP against righties last year, though the 1.55 HR/9 was worrisome. He had fewer strikeouts against lefties, but also allowed fewer home runs and a sub-.200 average. Potential danger in the Rangers’ order would be Nate Lowe (.279 ISO) and Adolis Garcia (.631 slugging against righties), so Maeda’s command will be necessary. Yet the Rangers striking out at a league-leading 30.1% against right-handed pitching this season lends credence to rostering Maeda at a reduced salary
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value A
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value A
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