Friday, April 30, offers an expansive schedule with every team in action. That will bring a couple of aces to the mound, but as always, it also means a lot of targetable bats getting targetable pitching matchups. Today stacks like the Reds and Orioles look like quality MLB DFS picks. Let’s break down the hitters to roster on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Hitters and Stacks, Friday, April 30th
Yahoo Stack of the Day: Cincinnati Reds vs. RHP Jake Arrieta — 4.4 implied runs
The Yahoo salary algorithm seems to be remembering the Jake Arrieta who is the proud owner of two no-hitters and a Cy Young Award. In turn, this has led to some bargains among the key Reds batsmen. Arrieta has solid numbers this season, but he struggled in his final two years with the Phillies. In his last 33 starts spanning 180.0 innings, he had a below-average 18.1% strikeout rate and above-average 8.5% walk rate. What really hurt was the pedestrian 7.5% swinging strike rate, as he is starting to have trouble fooling hitters.
Mike Moustakas ($12) is back in action after a non-COVID illness, and he is the top option to target for the Reds. Tyler Naquin ($11) is also coming at a deep discount when considering his power upside in the platoon advantage. Eugenio Suarez ($10) simply has the wrong salary, and the savings on this trio plus Joey Votto ($12) can allow for extending the stack to Nicholas Castellanos ($20) or Jesse Winker ($24), who are coming in at lofty salaries that will scare off all but the heartiest of DFS gamers. It is going to be a pleasant evening in the mid-60s at first pitch, and there is a 12 to 15 mph wind headed out to right field, which bodes well for the batters swinging the stick from the left side of the plate tonight.
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Evening Slate
Boston Red Sox at RHP Kohei Arihara — 4.8 implied runs
Depending on the potential precipitation the roof may be closed in this game. That will help the pitchers, but it should not lead anyone to shy away from Boston. Kohei Arihara survived through his first four starts this season, but the White Sox caught up to him on Sunday, plating five runs and chasing him after 70 pitches across two innings. Arihara has a 90 to 91 mph fastball, and he works in five other secondary pitches. He will turn 29 in August, though even in his seven years pitching for the Nippon Ham Fighters, limiting power and walks was his calling card. That is not going to play well in The Show without some strikeout stuff.
DraftKings did a nice job of increasing the key Red Sox salaries for this matchup. Yahoo did an adequate job, and of course, FanDuel does not seem to be cost conscious at all. The trio to target is J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts. They are all in the mid-$5,000s on DraftKings, which should keep their popularity in check. At the bottom of the order, Bobby Dalbec and Franchy Cordero provide some extreme discounts. While they are likely to be two slots away from the heart of the order, utilizing them to average down the full-stack cost makes sense on DraftKings, even though their placement in the lineup is not the most optimal.
Late Slate
Baltimore Orioles at RHP Mike Fiers — 5.0 implied runs
This will be the 2021 debut for Mike Fiers, who opened the year on the injured list while dealing with a sore hip. Fiers has done a nice job limiting walks, but the strikeouts have been below league average for several seasons. Since the beginning of the 2018 season, he has allowed the fourth-most home runs in the league. In that timeframe, his 3.85 ERA when compared to his 4.99 xFIP shows that he has been lucky. This is partly due to limiting baserunners, along with an above-average 80.1% strand rate.
While the Orioles do not have much in the way of All-Star talent, they do have some serviceable hitters that do not break the bank. Trey Mancini and Austin Hays are the two best all-around hitters, and D.J. Stewart and Maikel Franco provide some discounted power from each side of the plate. Though it will be in the mid-50s during the game, there is a 9 to 12 mph breeze blowing out to straight centerfield.
Final Thoughts for the Friday, April 30th MLB DFS Slate
This should be a fun one after Thursday’s short four-game main slate. Keep in mind that salaries and scoring formats differ across the various fantasy sites, and a home run play on Yahoo may be a below-average MLB DFS pick on DraftKings or FanDuel.
