MMA DFS Fight Breakdown + Analysis | UFC Fight Night | Frankie Edgar vs. Pedro Munhoz

Hello UFC fans. This weekend, we have an 11-fight card in Las Vegas, including a main event between Frankie Edgar vs. Pedro Munhoz. The main GPP has $100,000 going to first place with a total of $400,000 being paid out. Here, I will offer the fighters I feel have the most upside and value. Let’s dig into some MMA DFS picks analysis.


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 Austin Hubbard $7,800 vs. Joe Solecki

 Austin Hubbard

  • Age: 28
  • Height: 5-foot-8
  • Weight: 155 lbs.
  • Reach: 71 ins.
  • Record: 12-4-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 45%
  • Betting Odds: +110

Hubbard comes into this fight with an 1-2 record since entering the UFC, with all going to the judges score cards. His last fight against Mark Madsen, he struggled, being taken down eight times. Hubbard’s UFC career has not been what he was hoping for thus far. He absorbs 2.71 significant strikes per minute and is only averaging 3.00 significant strikes per minute. In this fight, Hubbard needs to keep this fight standing, in hopes of edging out a decision victory.

Joe Solecki

  • Age: 26
  • Height: 5-foot-8
  • Weight: 155 lbs.
  • Reach: 70.5 ins.
  • Record: 9-2-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 80%
  • Betting Odds: -160

Solecki has a solid ground game. He is extremely good at taking his opponents down to the mat. He is averaging a highly respectable 3.99 successful takedowns per 15 minutes. In Solecki’s last fight, he outstruck Matt Wiman  56-10 and his takedown offense looked sharp, taking Wiman to the mat four times. In this fight, I expect Solecki to shoot for takedowns and that is where Hubbard struggles, so I expect Solecki to have multiple takedowns, which should be the difference in this fight.

My preferred play is Solecki, I expect Solecki ground game will be to much for Hubbard to withstand, whereas Solecki could very easily finish Hubbard on the mat.

MMA DFS Pick: Joe Solecki via Unanimous Decision.

Daniel Rodriguez $8,700 vs. Dwight Grant $8,800

Daniel Rodriguez

  • Age: 33
  • Height: 6-foot-1
  • Weight: 178 lbs.
  • Reach: 74 ins.
  • Record: 12-1-0
  • Striking Accuracy: N/A
  • Betting Odds: -174

Rodriguez comes into this fight with a 12-1 record, he is a solid striker landing 8.60 significant strikes per minute. His last fight against Gabriel Green, he landed an astonishing 176 significant strikes. Rodriguez is a power striker that works off his jab, although his one downfall is being wild with his striking at times.   Rodriguez will need to keep his wild striking in check in this fight, if he does not I expect Grant will land a power shot and put Rodriguez’s lights out.

Dwight Grant

  • Age: 35
  • Height: 6-foot-1
  • Weight: 170 lbs.
  • Reach: 76 ins.
  • Record: 10-2-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 33%
  • Betting Odds: +146

Grant knocked out Tyler Hill on the “Contender Series”  to earn a UFC contract. He is a powerful striker; he will need to let his hands go and should case problems for Rodriguez, who relies heavy on his jab. if Grant can be more active and push the pace, he should be able to use his power striking to secure a victory. I expect Grant to be throwing more volume in this fight, that will be his best path to victory.

My preferred play is Grant, I expect Grant’s power will be more than the wild striking Rodriguez can withstand.

MMA DFS Pick: Dwight Grant via Second Round KO/TKO.

Mariya Agapova $9,300 vs. Shana Dobson $6,800

Mariya Agapova

  • Age: 23
  • Height: 5-foot-5
  • Weight: 125 lbs.
  • Reach: 68.5 ins.
  • Record: 12-0-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 51%
  • Betting Odds: -1500

Agapova is coming into this fight, with an impressive first-round submission victory over Hannah Cifers. She called out Dobson after beating Cifers, her last three fights have all came by stoppage. Agapova is a well-rounded fighter, with a solid grappling game and good striking, whereas she can finish her opponents on the ground are standing. I expect Agapova’s grappling and standup to be way more than Dobson can handle. I think Agapova will be better everywhere in this fight, while Dobson will mostly just be trying to survive.

Shana Dobson

  • Age: 31
  • Height: 5-foot-5
  • Weight: 125 lbs.
  • Reach: 69 ins.
  • Record: 3-4-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 34%
  • Betting Odds: +870

Dobson has struggled in her last three fights, and I expect this fight will not be any different. She seems to have been inconsistent with her striking and grappling. Now, she will be facing Agapova, who happens to be the more well-rounded fighter. Dobson trains at Elevation Fight Team and their credentials speaks for themselves, but Dobson just has not been able to put it all together in her previous fights. If Dobson can come out rejuvenated and motivated, she could possibly have a shot at beating Agapova. But after what she has demonstrated in previous fights, it is probably a long shot.

MMA DFS Pick: Mariya Agapova via Frist-Round KO/TKO.


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Ovince Saint Preux  $7,900 vs. Alonzo Menifield $8,300 (Cancelled)

Ovince Saint Preux  

  • Age: 37
  • Height: 6-foot-2
  • Weight: 230 lbs.
  • Reach: 80 ins.
  • Record: 24-14-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 43%
  • Betting Odds: +102

Saint Preux is coming off a loss to Ben Rothwell via split decision, he is 5-5 in his last 10 fights. He is a dangerous fighter in the light heavyweight division, with huge knockout power in his hand. Saint Preux throws leg kicks that can be devastating to his opponents, and is averaging 2.60 significant strikes per minute. In this fight, Saint Preux should look to keep this fight standing. If the fight does happen to get to the mat, his ground and pound is dangerous and nasty.

Alonzo Menifield

  • Age: 32
  • Height: 6-foot-0
  • Weight: 205 lbs.
  • Reach: 76 ins.
  • Record: 9-1-0
  • Striking Accuracy: N/A
  • Betting Odds: -120

Menifield has heavy hands and starts his fights with aggressiveness, looking for the knockout while throwing heavy shots. He is coming off a loss to Devin Clark, where he was dominated everywhere. Menifield showed some cardio issue against Clark, so if this fight gets into the later rounds, that could play a factor. His one downfall is using all his energy when the fight starts, by throwing his power strikes with everything he has in the gas tank. I expect Menifield to start fast, but it could possibly cost him facing such a powerful striker as Saint Preux.

My preferred play is Saint Preux. I expect Saint Preux to use his experience, power striking and wrestling to give Menifield problems.

MMA DFS Pick: Ovince Saint Preux via Second-Round Submission.


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Frankie Edgar $7,200 vs. Pedro Munhoz $9,000

Frankie Edgar

  • Age: 38
  • Height: 5-foot-5
  • Weight: 145 lbs.
  • Reach: 68 ins.
  • Record: 22-8-1
  • Striking Accuracy: 40%
  • Betting Odds: +188

Edgar will be looking to rejuvenate his career, by dropping to a new division once more. He is averaging 3.60 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.48 strikes per minute. Edgar struggled in his last fight against Chan Sung Jung, landing a mere nine significant strikes before getting a knockout in Round 1. In this fight, I expect Edgar to try and keep the distance using his foot work and head movement, which has Decreased over his career. The issues Edgar will face in this fight, is his body has taken a lot of damage in his career and Munhoz could land some hard power shots and put Edgar away early.

Pedro Munhoz

  • Age: 33
  • Height: 5-foot-5
  • Weight: 135 lbs.
  • Reach: 65 ins.
  • Record: 18-4-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 43%
  • Betting Odds: -225

Munhoz will have the clear advantage in this fight, his speed and power striking are elite for the Bantamweight division. He is averaging 5.29 significant strikes per minute, Munhoz will throw hard power strikes in volume looking to hurt his opponents early and often. Munhoz struggled against Aljamain Sterling, being out struck by a significant margin, which lead to an unanimous decision loss. I expect Munhoz to push the pace with a barrage of punches, looking to land a hard shot to the suspect chin of Edgar.

My preferred play is Munhoz, I think his speed and power striking will be too much for the fading Edgar to withstand.

MMA DFS Pick: Pedro Munhoz via Frist-Round KO/TKO.


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