Hello UFC fans. This weekend, we have an 11-fight card in Las Vegas, including a main event between Anthony Smith vs. Aleksandar Rakic. The main GPP has $100,000 going to first place with a total of $400,000 being paid out. Here I will offer the fighters I feel have the most upside and value. Let’s dig into some UFC DFS picks analysis.
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UFC DFS Picks: Core
Aleksandar Rakic | DraftKings: $8,700, FanDuel: $23
Rakic is a talented boxer with extremely good technical skills and a seemingly solid chin. He is coming in on a split-decision loss against Volkan Oezdemir. I expect Rakic to be focused and motivated to shock the world. Smith always starts out slow in the early rounds. So, if Smith continues this trend in this fight, I expect Rakic to put him to sleep. In Awesemo’s UFC DFS Fighter projection, Rakic is the highest-projected fighter on the slate, with 71% win odds.
Magomed Ankalaev | DraftKings: $9,000, FanDuel: $19
Ankalaev is a southpaw, he is an extremely explosive fighter and can put his opponents to sleep with his nasty counter left hook. Their first meeting had one of the more bizarre finishes in UFC, referee Kevin MacDonald stopped the fight, but Cutelaba immediately came to and said he was just trying to lure Ankalaev. Ankalaev will be focused and motivated in this fight, by finishing Cutelaba in the early stages of this fight. Awesemo’s projections have Ankalaev with the highest chance for a knockout (52%) and 75% win odds.
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UFC DFS Picks: Mid-Priced
Neil Magny | DraftKings: $8,600, FanDuel: $18
Mangy looked good in his last fight against Anthony Rocco Martin in June. He will have a six-inch reach advantage over Lawler, and Magny’s cardio is one of the best in the welterweight division. Magny is averaging 2.57 successful takedowns every 15 minutes, being successful on 47% of his takedown attempts. In this fight, I expect Magny to use his head and body kicks, which Lawler has struggled with over his career. Magny will be shooting single legs, while looking to get this fight to the mat where he will have a clear advantage. Awesemo’s UFC DFS Fighter projections give Magny 69% win odds.
Zak Cummings | DraftKings: $8,400, FanDuel: $15
Cummings will be making his first appearance of the year. He moved back up to middleweight after a loss to Michal Prazeres. He started out on fire with an unanimous decision win over Trevor Smith, then topped that performance off by a submission win against Trevin Giles. However, he then faced Omair Akhmedov losing via unanimous decision. This fight could go either way, but I expect Cummings will look to get this fight to the mat. Awesemo’s projections give Cummings 49% win odds vs. 17% ownership, which could make for a nice leverage play.
UFC DFS Picks: Value
Alex Caceres | DraftKings: $7,400, FanDuel: $13
Caceres is a southpaw. He will have the kickboxing edge and his jiu-jitsu should give Springer trouble on the mat. His striking is solid, he throws a right hook that is dangerous and can hurt his opponents. In this match, I expect Caceres to take this fight to the mat and look to finish Springer via submission. This is a risky play; although, with a finish he will easily pay off his low $7,400 salary. Awesemo’s UFC DFS Fighter projections give Caceres 33% win odds.
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