Hello, UFC fans. This weekend, we have a 11-card in Las Vegas, including a main event between Derek Brunson and Edmen Shahbazyan. The main GPP has $100,000 going to first place with a total of $400,000 being paid out. Here I will offer the fighters I feel posses the most upside and value, and should be on your radar MMA DFS picks radar. Let’s dig into some MMA DFS analysis and this weekend’s UFC odds.
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Chris Gutierrez $9,200 vs. Cody Durden $7,000
Chris Gutierrez
- Age: 29
- Height: 5-foot-8
- Weight: 145 lbs
- Reach: 67 in.
- Record: 15-3-1
- Striking Accuracy: 58%
- UFC Odds: -300
Gutierrez is on a three-fight win streak. However, he has had some issues with take-down defense in the past. In contrast, he will be facing Durden, who has a strong wrestling pedigree and solid striking. Gutierrez has devastating leg kicks, which he displayed in his dominating stoppage performance against Vince Morales. So, I expect this fight may have a similar outcome if Gutierrez can avoid being taking to the mat.
Cody Durden
- Age: 29
- Height: 5-foot-6
- Weight: 135 lbs
- Reach: 70 in.
- Record: 11-2-0
- Striking Accuracy: N/A
- UFC Odds: +260
Durden is taking this fight on a week’s notice. He is replacing Luke Sanders, and there is no word on why Sanders withdrew from the fight. Durden is coming into this fight hot, currently on a seven-fight win streak. Durden last fought July 18, where he destroyed John Sweeney in just 80 seconds. In this fight, if Durden gets Gutierrez to the mat, he should have a huge wrestling advantage.
My preferred play is Durden. I expect Durden to shoot for takedowns and control this fight on the mat, where he is most comfortable in his fights. I would have both sides of this fight if building multiple lineups, but if Durden pulls off a submission win at $7,000, we could see him in the optimal lineup.
MMA DFS Pick: Cody Durden via Second-Round Submission.
Frankie Saenz $7,600 vs. Jonathan Martinez $8,600
Frankie Saenz
- Age: 39
- Height: 5-foot-5
- Weight: 135 lbs
- Reach: 66 in.
- Record: 13-6-0
- Striking Accuracy: 47%
- UFC Odds: +175
Saenz has not fought in over 16 months. He is a solid wrestler, and that will be his path to victory in this fight. If he can get Martinez to the mat, Saenz should have a clear advantage over him. Wrestling continues to be one of Martinez’s weaknesses. He is the better striker here, but I do not think Saenz has the skill to hang with Martinez on the feet. Taking this fight to the mat will be Saenz’s best path to victory, and he could definitely grind out a decision win.
Jonathan Martinez
- Age: 26
- Height: 5-foot-7
- Weight: 135 lbs
- Reach: 70 in.
- Record: 11-3-0
- Striking Accuracy: N/A
- UFC Odds: -200
Martinez is the bigger fighter, and his speed should be too much for Saenz to deal with. He should have a clear striking advantage over Saenz, but if Martinez gets takedown and Saenz is able to keep him on his back, it would be huge trouble for the weak wrestling of Martinez. In this fight, I expect Martinez to dominate on the feet and pick apart Saenz at range.
My preferred play is Martinez. He will be the bigger fighter, and if he can stay off the mat, he should have no problem picking Saenz apart.
MMA DFS Pick: Jonathan Martinez via Second-Round TKO/KO.
Kevin Holland $8,900 vs. Trevin Giles $7,300
Kevin Holland
- Age: 27
- Height: 6-foot-2
- Weight: 170 lbs
- Reach: 70 in.
- Record: 17-5-0
- Striking Accuracy: 64%
- UFC Odds: -200
Holland is a hard fighter to trust, but he should have a clear advantage over Giles everywhere. He is light on his feet, constantly moving to keep his opponents guessing. Holland has solid boxing skills and has speed, power that can put his opponents lights out in a hurry. He closes the distance extremely well, which can lead to big shots that can hurt his opponents. I expect Holland to be able to finish this fight on his feet or on the mat.
 Trevin Giles
- Age: 27
- Height: 6-foot-0
- Weight: 185 lbs
- Reach: 74 in.
- Record: 12-2-0
- Striking Accuracy: 56%
- UFC Odds: +175
Giles has heavy hands and throws wild at times in his past fight. He does have one-shot knockout power when landed clean on his opponents. In his last fight, he landed 88 total strikes and had five submission attempts. Giles is an overly aggressive fighter. Holland should be able to land hard shots because Giles’ aggressiveness and forward movement will leave his chin wide open at times.
My preferred play is Holland. He should be able to take advantage of Giles’ aggressive fighting style and get a finish on the feet or lock up a submission on the mat.
MMA DFS Pick: Kevin Holland via First-Round Submission.
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Vicente Luque $8,800 vs. Randy Brown $7,400
Vicente Luque
- Age: 28
- Height: 5-foot-9
- Weight: 170 lbs
- Reach: 75.5 in.
- Record: 18-7-1
- Striking Accuracy: 54%
- UFC Odds: -180
Luque has knockouts in five of his last six. He is dangerous with solid power in his hands. If this fight gets to the mat, Luque should have a huge advantage over Brown. Luque boxing skills are dangerous and can hurt his opponents fast because he targets and attacks his opponent’s head. So, we should expect Luque to keep this fight standing because his style is looking to put his opponents lights out in a hurry.
 Randy Brown
- Age: 30
- Height: 6-foot-2
- Weight: 170 lbs
- Reach: 78 in.
- Record: 12-3-0
- Striking Accuracy: 48%
- Betting Odds: +160
Brown is a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and has four submission victories on his record. He has solid boxing skills, but his nasty devastating knees from the clinch can end fights quickly. Brown does have power, but the edge there still goes to Luque in this fight. This should be a fun fight to watch. Both fighters have  solid boxing , and solid wresting with submission wins. Brown’s best path to victory is getting Luque in the clinch, while trying to land his devastating knees.
My preferred play is Luque. I expect this fight to be a striking match and Luque has the power edge over Brown. But I can also see this playing out on the mat, where I still think Luque will get it done via submission.
MMA DFS Pick: Vicente Luque via Second-Round Submission.
Joanne Calderwood $8,700 vs. Jennifer Maia $7,500
Joanne Calderwood
- Age: 34
- Height: 5-foot-5
- Weight: 125 lbs
- Reach: 65.5 in.
- Record: 14-4-0
- Striking Accuracy: 50%
- UFC Odds: -180
Calderwood will be the more active fighter. She is averaging 6.19 significant strikes per minute, far more than her opponent, and she will shoot for more takedowns. Calderwood’s cardio is solid, and she should have a big advantage if this fight gets in the latter rounds. In this fight, Calderwood should dominate on the feet and the mat, walking away with another victory on her record.
 Jennifer Maia
- Age: 31
- Height: 5-foot-3
- Weight: 125 lbs
- Reach: 74 in
- Record: 17-6-1
- Striking Accuracy: 46%
- UFC Odds: +160
Maia has won six of her last eight fights, but she is coming off a loss to Katlyn Chookagian. She does come from a boxing background and will be looking to let her hands go in this fight. Maia has four career submission victories, but I expect her to keep this fight standing. Maia likes to push the pace, but in this fight, it will probably get her in trouble against Calderwood.
My preferred play is Calderwood. I just do not see Maia being able to stand and throw with Calderwood.
MMA DFS Pick: Joanne Calderwood via Unanimous Decision.
Derek Brunson $7,100 vs. Edmen Shahbazyan $9,100
Derek Brunson
- Age: 36
- Height: 6-foot-1
- Weight: 185 lbs
- Reach: 77 in.
- Record: 20-7-0
- Striking Accuracy: 45%
- UFC Odds: +250
Brunson is the No. 8-ranked fighter in the middleweight division. He’s coming off back-to-back wins via unanimous decision. He is a solid striker and wrestler, although he leaves his chin open in striking exchanges for his opponents to land big shots. Brunson has solid boxing skills with one-punch knockout power in his left hand. The only path to victory for Brunson in this fight is landing his power left clean, but honestly, I don’t see that being the case in this fight.
Edmen Shahbazyan
- Age: 22
- Height: 6-foot-2
- Weight: 185 lbs
- Reach: 74 in.
- Record: 11-0-0
- Striking Accuracy: 60%
- UFC Odds: -300
Shahbazyan is coming off a first-round knockout win over Brad Tavares, where Shahbazyan wasted no time finishing him with a powerful kick. He is averaging 6.77 takedowns every 15 minutes, and he has a dangerous ground game. Shahbazyan is younger, faster and probably better everywhere except for experience. So, I expect this to be an exciting fight and a striking match between top middleweights.
My preferred play is Shahbazyan. He is the faster, younger fighter and Brunson is way too hittable for a power striker like Shahbazyan.
MMA DFS Pick: Edmen Shahbazyan via First Round TKO/KO.
