NBA DFS action on Thursday, March 18, locks at 7:00 p.m. EST with a six-game main slate on Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel. SuperDraft is locking 30 minutes later at 7:30 p.m. EDT with a five-game slate. Before you lock in your lineups on Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft, make sure to check out Awesemo’s daily fantasy basketball picks, rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some daily fantasy basketball picks, including Donovan Mitchell, LeBron James, Joe Ingles and more.
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NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks, Thursday, March 18th
Yahoo Play of the Day – Joe Ingles: Utah Jazz at Washington Wizards
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 27.41 | DraftKings: 29.56
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 49.4% | FanDuel 23.8% | DraftKings 30.4%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $13 | FanDuel $4,400 | DraftKings $5,200
This one is pretty straightforward, as Mike Conley will be getting a maintenance day. Joe Ingles’ last seven starts have coincided with Conley’s absences. However, even if Ingles is coming off the bench, he should still be a core play for us on Thursday. Ingles generally backs up both Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley and is in a lot of Utah closing lineups. This should be no surprise, as Ingles is seventh on the Jazz all-time assists leaderboard.
Looking at NBA WOWY, we can see that since the beginning of last season, Ingles averages 0.71 Yahoo fantasy points per minute when sharing the court with Conley. Without Conley, this metric jumps to 0.85 Yahoo fantasy points per minute. This is a marvelous matchup tonight for the Jazz, who are double-digit road favorites. They are projected for nearly 124 points, which is 7 above their season average. Ingles will be wildly popular today, but there are many other NBA DFS picks we can make to differentiate our rosters.
Donovan Mitchell: Utah Jazz at Washington Wizards
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 42.39 | DraftKings: 45.22
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 27.4% | FanDuel 24.7% | DraftKings 21.8%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $36 | FanDuel $8,300 | DraftKings $8,700
There should be no shortage of fantasy goodness available for the Jazz tonight. Even with 12 teams in action, I foresee most of my rosters having multiple Utah players, and Donovan Mitchell has shouldered more of the load in the seven games he has played without Conley,
In these games Mitchell is averaging 35.3 minutes, 21.9 field-goal attempts, 5.4 assists and 45.3 Yahoo fantasy points. That is a nice jump over his full-season averages of 34 minutes, 19 field-goal attempts, 6.9 assists and 38.7 Yahoo fantasy points.
Do not be concerned with a possible blowout dramatically impacting Mitchell. The Jazz have won all seven games this season without Conley by an average of 14 points, and Mitchell has been just fine from a fantasy perspective. Rudy Gobert and Jordan Clarkson are also intriguing NBA DFS picks tonight.
LeBron James: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Charlotte Hornets
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 51.52 | DraftKings: 54.95
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 27.8% | FanDuel 36.1% | DraftKings 28.9%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $49 | FanDuel $10,800 | DraftKings $10,700
While this will be the third game in four nights for the Lakers, keep in mind they had last weekend off. Their next game is Saturday afternoon against Atlanta, and then they play again on Sunday in Phoenix. In his last three appearances, LeBron has played 31.2, 30.5 and 34.3 minutes. Even in these conservative minutes, he has still been a nightly triple-double threat, reaching that milestone in the last two games. In this stretch he is averaging 21.7 points, 8.3 rebounds, 11 assists and 0.7 combined blocks/steals for 45.8 Yahoo fantasy points.
Tuesday I was a little worried about LeBron seeing limited fourth quarter run. However, with Alex Caruso out, James still saw 7 minutes in the final frame. Caruso has been ruled out for tonight, as have Marc Gasol and Kostas Antetokounmpo, who are both still in the health-and-safety protocol. That leaves LeBron and Dennis Schroder as the main facilitators, with youngster Talen Horton-Tucker having seen some of the responsibility fall to him as well. The Saturday afternoon game against the Hawks would be the one I worry more about James seeing limited minutes, with Sunday’s matchup against Phoenix looming large for Western Conference playoff standings.
Good Value
Chris Paul: Phoenix Suns vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 37.6 | DraftKings: 38.59
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 29.8% | FanDuel 36.1% | DraftKings 19.7%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $30 | FanDuel $6,900 | DraftKings $7,700
Phoenix last played on Monday, so they have had three days off. Tonight and tomorrow they will be hosting Minnesota before a marquee Sunday matchup with the Lakers. The Suns are double-digit favorites against a woeful Timberwolves squad. While I am not expecting crazy minutes or production for Chris Paul with a game again tomorrow, his price is perfectly acceptable for a floor of 30 fantasy points and 10 to 12 fantasy points of upside realistically within reach.
Risky Value
Julius Randle: New York Knicks vs. Orlando Magic
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 45.83 | DraftKings: 48.89
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 18.6% | FanDuel 41.3% | DraftKings 16.1%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $44 | FanDuel $9,200 | DraftKings $10,000
If you have been a regular reader of this article series, you know all about my seemingly limitless love for Julius Randle. However, on FanDuel we are seeing him reach a tipping point that should not be overlooked in tournaments. Looking at the Awesemo Boom/Bust tool, we can see that there is a 42.2% chance that Randle is in the FanDuel optimal lineup. That is a lofty probability, though we also need to consider that FanDuel is unique in that it requires us to play two power forwards, and after Randle and Zion Williamson, we are looking at the likes of John Collins, Kyle Kuzma and Dario Saric.
Currently, Randle has a 29.1% chance of reaching his boom score of 57.5 FanDuel points. On the other hand, he has a 33.1% chance of failing to exceed his bust threshold of 47.5 FanDuel points. So the math is telling us that he is projecting to be appropriately represented on around 40% of all rosters tonight. This is also the third game in four nights for the Knicks and the fourth in six. While their next game is not until Sunday, in the last three Randle has played 41, 41 and 39 minutes. This playing time represents three of the five highest minute totals he has played in the last 25 games. Leaving this downside risk to be assumed by other gamers is not for the faint of heart, but it may be a path towards a successful tournament showing tonight.
Yahoo Daily Fantasy Basketball Discount Dandies
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: LAL vs. CHA – $11
- Alex Len: WAS vs. UTA – $10
- Talen Horton-Tucker: LAL vs. CHA – $12
SuperDraft Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks
- Lonzo Ball: NOP at POR – 1.45x multiplier
- Julius Randle: NYK vs. ORL – 1.15x multiplier
- Danilo Gallinari: ATL at OKC – 1.60x multiplier
Final Thoughts on the Thursday, Mar. 18 NBA DFS Slate
Tonight’s games will be in two waves, with three games tipping off during the 7 o’clock hour and three more during the 10 o’clock hour. This could potentially have gamers away from their computers when unexpected late-breaking news occurs. Keep in mind that salaries and scoring formats differ across the various fantasy sites, and a slam-dunk play on Yahoo may be a below-average NBA DFS pick on DraftKings or FanDuel.
