Using Awesemo’s Boom/Bust Tool, each player carries an optimal lineup percentage score, which is the probability that player will be in perfect lineup for that slate based on Awesemo’s projections. Below are three of the players with the highest Week 12 DraftKings and FanDuel optimal lineup percentage scores of the week using the Boom/Bust Tool. Check out all of the Awesemo expert tools and cheat sheets when making your NFL DFS picks this week.
NFL DFS Picks: Week 12 Optimal Lineups
*Percentages indicate Optimal Lineup Scores
Miles Sanders– DraftKings: 21.9%, FanDuel: 18.7%
Sanders is projected to be owned under 12% on both sites which would be phenomenal. He leads the entire slate in percentage to be in the DraftKings optimal lineup. That may shift slightly as far as ownership goes because Jordan Howard was ruled out Friday afternoon. That means only Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell will likely be active behind Sanders, and Gainwell was a healthy scratch last week.
In the past three weeks, Philadelphia has led the entire league in rushing attempts per game (42.7). The next closest team is Indianapolis at 34.3 attempts, so there is a significant gap. The Giants have almost hit rock bottom in DVOA against the run at 30th, and they are 21st in yards allowed per carry (4.4). When he returned from the IR last week, Sanders set a new season high in carries (16). That is an encouraging sign coming back from an ankle injury.
Through his eight games he was only averaging 9.9 carries per game, so that would be a significant shift. Additionally, the 10% target share could add another two or three touches through the passing game. The Awesemo Boom/Bust Tool gives him a top-eight percentage to boom on both sites, and a running back for a 3.5-point favorite with a 24.5-point implied total should not be this cheap.
Cooper Kupp — DraftKings: 14.3%, FanDuel: 19.7%
Saving salary by playing Sanders can pay dividends in the form of spending a significant chunk of salary on Kupp. He is second on FanDuel for optimal percentage and 12th to be in the DraftKings optimal despite his high salary, and the expense is well deserved given Kupp’s performance this season. The Packers have the 12th-ranked DVOA against the pass, but no team has found the formula to slow down Kupp this year. He is now second in targets, trailing only Tyreek Hill for Kansas City. However, Hill is currently on his bye week, so Kupp has a strong chance to re-take the lead. Kupp also leads in red-zone targets (25), part of the reason he has the highest ceiling on DraftKings and FanDuel (for non-quarterbacks).
There are not many categories for receivers that Kupp does not lead, as he is tops in receptions (85), yardage (1,141), touchdowns (10) and fantasy points per game (25.9). He runs out of the slot 56.3% of the time, which is the fourth-highest mark among receivers, and he ranks third in yards run per route (3.33). Packers cornerback Chandon Sullivan has manned the slot 80% of the time in his snaps and has allowed a 112.2 passer rating and 1.90 fantasy points per target. Kupp is an elite play across any site and format.
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Kyle Pitts — DraftKings: 15.6%, FanDuel: 22.1%
The fantasy production has not been there for Pitts in recent weeks, but he leads the optimal percentage on FanDuel and still has the eighth-highest chance to be in the DraftKings optimal, a strong play regardless of site. His leverage score is also very high for both sites, and that suggests he is not as popular as he should be. It is a bit of an odd slate for the position. After all, Travis Kelce, Darren Waller and Mark Andrews are all unavailable. The top end of the position is much thinner than normal, and the field seems to be spending less there. However, the metrics for Pitts continue to scream that he has barely scratched the surface of his potential.
Among tight ends Pitts ranks first in air yards share (29.2%), third in yards (635), sixth in yards run per route (2.18) and fifth in unrealized air yards (239). One aspect that is holding Pitts back is he has only scored one touchdown on the season, but he has 10 red-zone targets. Jacksonville is 31st in DVOA against the pass, and Pitts has the highest boom potential on both sites. His projected ownership continues to hover at just 10% according to the Awesemo Ownership Tool, which does not match what Pitts brings to this slate.
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