For each of the featured games, typically Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football slates, we will be providing free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks for today. There are loads of information and NFL DFS showdown picks to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 3 Sunday Night Football slate featuring the San Francisco 49ers vs. the Green Bay Packers.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Week 3 Sunday Night Football
The Packers are coming into this game relatively healthy, with the only key player sidelined being offensive lineman Elgton Jenkins. San Francisco, on the other hand, has lost several running backs including Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr. and JaMychal Hasty. Rookie Elijah Mitchell drew the start last week, but he did not practice and is doubtful with a shoulder injury. That leaves fellow rookie Trey Sermon, Kerryon Johnson, Trenton Cannon and another rookie in Jacques Patrick. Chris Thompson has also been trying to win a reserve role on some of the more desperate teams over the last two weeks.
This will be the third time in three years and the fifth time overall that Aaron Rodgers is playing San Francisco. Week 1 was a disaster for Green Bay, as they were dismantled by New Orleans 38-3 at a neutral site, but Week 2 brought a rebound with a 35-17 drubbing of Detroit, and Rodgers threw four touchdowns. The Lions are a common opponent, as they lost 41-33 to the 49ers in Week 1. This season the 49ers have been a middle-of-the pack defense, but they are trending up in the passing game, with the 11th-best DVOA.
Aaron Jones did the heavy lifting last week, 17 carries for 67 yards, and he brought in all six of his targets for another 48 yards and four total touchdowns. That is an aberration considering he only had six touchdowns receiving heading into that game, but it was nice to see the coaching staff clearly scheming to get that matchup look. A.J. Dillon looks to be on the short end of the rotation, with about a third of the opportunities, and Kylin Hill is the backup and kick returner.
It should be no surprise that Davante Adams leads the team with 16 targets. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is second with 11, and no other wideout has more than four. Allen Lazard did not get a single target last week, but he did play on 65% of the snaps, which was in line with Valdes-Scantling. Likely some of the attempts that went to Jones would normally go his way, so this is just a blip on the radar rather than a trend. Randall Cobb has played on just 26% and 18% of the snaps through the first two weeks, and rookie Amari Rodgers went from 26% in the opener to not seeing the field on Monday. It is hard to consider anyone other than the first three options.
Robert Tonyan is the clear top tight end option, with seven targets to Marcedes Lewis’ one. Lewis has played only five fewer snaps, but he mostly is used in a blocking role, and aside from a fortuitous red-zone target or Tonyan injury, it is hard to consider him a fantasy contributor, even in the single-game format.
On the season the 49ers have allowed one sack and no interceptions. Green Bay has a decent defense, but it is hard to imagine more than a handful of sacks and turnovers combined in this road matchup.
Jimmy Garoppolo has led the team to two victories, and while rookie Trey Lance got four snaps and threw a touchdown in Week 1, he did not take the field against the Eagles. It would not be a surprise to see him worked in for a series or a specific package, though for the time being this looks like Garoppolo’s gig. Green Bay has a bottom-five passing DVOA, and they are in the bottom 10 in rushing DVOA.
Trey Sermon looks like he will be getting the start, though it is somewhat concerning that both Hasty and Mitchell got the first crack at the gig when Raheem Mostert went down. The salary is quite appealing for Sermon, which will make him a popular play. It is a bunch of practice squad options after him, even if there are some recognizable names; Trenton Cannon and Kerryon Johnson have already been on multiple teams this season.
Deebo Samuel has been the clear top wideout for San Francisco this season as Brandon Aiyuk has been recovering from a hamstring injury. This has allowed Trent Sherfield to see far more action than anyone projected and made things a little murky. Aiyuk is talented, though it may be a couple more games before he is back in the good graces of his coach. Mohamed Sanu is filling in wherever needed, and with George Kittle in the mix, Aiyuk is not getting the looks necessary to be fantasy viable. On the year there have been 51 total targets, with Samuel getting 20, Kittle nine, the running backs 12, and Sherfield has six. The rest of the receivers share the other six.
Kittle is one of the elite tight ends in the league and is always in line to be the top fantasy recommendation from his team. Through two games he has played on 95% and 100% of the snaps, with veteran Ross Dwelley playing 25% and 33% in mostly a blocking role. With so many new faces in the backfield, Garoppolo will be looking to Kittle early and often in the passing game tonight.
Through the first two games Rodgers has been sacked four times and has two interceptions. Just when it seemed the offensive line was better and Rodgers became more willing to throw the ball away, he could be backsliding into old habits.
Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those taking the MME approach, remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their quarterback.
Week 3 Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Davante Adams: He has such a large portion of the Green Bay targets.
- Deebo Samuel: Finally healthy, and he is good for a carry or two.
- George Kittle: Discounted compared to the quarterbacks; he really needs to find the end zone or flirt with 100 yards receiving.
- Trey Sermon: The salary is going to have him as one of the most popular options tonight on FanDuel ($8,500) and DraftKings ($3,000).
- Aaron Jones: Four touchdowns are out of the question, but he easily could get one or two with his heavy involvement.
- Aaron Rodgers: Does not do much with his legs anymore, which curbs his upside.
- Jimmy Garoppolo: Specter of Lance lurking is not going to go away.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Can score from anywhere on the field, making him a great option in the single-game format.
- Robert Tonyan: Looking for red-zone usage, but he does have touchdown equity.
- Allen Lazard: Caps out around 4-5 targets, but he is on the field for two-thirds of the snaps and Rodgers trusts him.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Robbie Gould: The run-focused offense lends itself to more field goal attempts.
- Mason Crosby: Green Bay is in the bottom of the league for field goal attempts over the last five seasons.
- Brandon Aiyuk: He has only two targets this season.
- Kerryon Johnson: Most experienced member of the dwindling 49ers running back corps.
- A.J. Dillon: Needs a lucky red-zone plunge, mop-up duty or something to happen to Jones.
Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Trent Sherfield: Only if he is starting or Aiyuk is still not ready for a full workload, and it sounds like he is in the doghouse.
- San Francisco D/ST: They need Rodgers to be careless, something that is not out of the question.
- Green Bay D/ST: Would be better off if they were going against Lance.
- Kyle Juszczyk: The salary is right on DraftKings as an extreme punt who should see a couple targets and potentially a carry or two.
- Randall Cobb and Mohamed Sanu: Three targets would be the realistic upside for each.
- Trenton Cannon and Chris Thompson: Desperation plays; Thompson is in the player pool but not signed by San Francisco yet.
- Trey Lance: Stranger things have happened in this format.
- Marcedes Lewis and Ross Dwelley: Blocking tight ends, but they will be on the field for between 20% and 40% of the snaps.
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