Greetings, NFL DFS Gamers! Welcome to the Awesemo daily fantasy football Single-Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and DraftKings Showdown slates. For each of the featured games, typically Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football slates, we will be providing a free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules as well as player rankings and comments for all of your daily fantasy needs. We have loads of information and NFL DFS picks to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 16 Friday Holiday Football slate between the New Orleans Saints and Minnesota Vikings.
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NFL DFS Picks: Week 16 Friday Holiday Football DraftKings + FanDuel
Minnesota Vikings: 22.0
Quarterback
This is not going to be an easy matchup for the Vikings as the Saints defense is really rounding into form. Currently they have the second best rushing DVOA and the third best passing DVOA. Even setting aside the Kendall Hinton starting for the Broncos debacle, New Orleans has allowed just six touchdowns in the other five most recent game and three of those were notched last weekend by Patrick Mahomes. Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Jalen Hurts and Nick Mullens combined for the other three.
For the full Week 16 slate, Kirk Cousins is checking in as the QB24 in the Awesemo projections. In his last nine games, Cousins does have multiple touchdowns in seven along with four 300+ yard performances. Sadly he has topped 10+ rushing yards only four times and is averaging 2.3 carries and 11.1 yards in that stretch.
Never Miss An Active/Inactive Ever Again Don't get burned by a player being ruled out last minute, use our New NFL Depth Charts page to see starting lineups and inactive players for every team.Running Back
Dalvin Cook is a top five running back for both FanDuel and DraftKings in the full-week Awesemo projections. Over his last eight games he has topped 96+ yards in seven and is averaging 25.6 carries for 124.4 yards rushing and 4.5 targets for 3.8 receptions and 35.6 yards receiving along with six rushing and one receiving score. That works out to an average of 30 opportunities per game which is a phenomenal workload. In this same stretch of games he has put up 102 rushing yards on Tampa Bay plus 96 and 132 in his two outings against Chicago.
Just a little cold bucket of reality, the last two running backs to top the century mark against New Orleans were Miles Sanders in Week 14 and then Samaje Perine in Week 11 of the 2017 season when he was a rookie with Washington.
Ameer Abdullah saw a few snaps while Alexander Mattison was recovering from an appendix operation. C.J. Ham will play nearly half of the snaps if the game is close, however, he has 5/18/0 on the ground and 10 targets for 6/53/1 through the air this season. Over the last six games running backs not named Dalvin Cook have a combined 12 carries and 11 targets. Mattison will miss Friday’s game while in the concussion protocol.
Wanna bet?
Alex “Awesemo” Baker’s projected stats (part of Awesemo+) have Dalvin Cook with 90.2 rushing yards, which makes the over 80.5 at -129 on OddsShopper an intriguing way to hedge some our DraftKings and FanDuel DFS lineups. Click on the image below to start shopping for the best edge in betting and check out all the player props available for the Friday Afternoon Football action between the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints.
Wide Receiver
Over the last three weeks rookie Justin Jefferson has 31 targets, Adam Thielen has 18 and Chad Beebe has eight with Tajae Sharpe chipping in one. The tight ends have 21 and the running backs have seen 27 in this timeframe. The point is that Cousins tends to spread the ball around and take what the defense is giving him.
The Vikings have attempted at least 35+ passes in five of their last six games and they are likely to be trailing at points during Friday’s tilt. Beebe is worth some consideration at $1,800 on DraftKings, but otherwise we should focus on Jefferson and Thielen.
Tight End
Kyle Rudolph is out with a foot injury, though there does not appear to be any truth to the rumor he hurt himself while helping deliver presents last night. Tyler Conklin has played in 45 games seeing just 31 targets, however, nine of those have been in the last two weeks while Rudolph was out. At $6,000 on FanDuel and especially at $3,000 on DraftKings, he is worth a look as a discount dandy.
In the last two games, Irv Smith has four targets in each and of course he has the longer track record of producing with Cousins. During these two game the production has nearly been identical with Conklin going for 8/97/1 and Smith for 7/100/1.
Defense/Special Teams
New Orleans has allowed 2+ sacks in five of their last six games along with eight turnovers. Minnesota is averaging 1.2 takeaways and 1.6 sacks per game.
New Orleans Saints: 29.0
Quarterback
It looks like Drew Brees will be working with Alvin Kamara, Emmanuel Sanders and a few create a players. Michael Thomas (ankle) and Deonte Harris (neck) are on the injured reserve with the hopes they returns for the playoffs. Tre’Quan Smith was added to the IR on Wednesday with his own ankle injury. That means that Lil’ Jordan Humphries, Juwan Johnson and Tommylee Lewis will be playing significant snaps on Friday.
Keep in mind that while Brees did look rusty last week, he did come back early from his punctured lung and eleven fractured ribs. He also will be 42-years old in three weeks.
While Brees does come in five spots higher than Cousins for the full-week, he is just 2.1 fantasy points ahead of him. In the last seven weeks only Mike Glennon (280) and Teddy Bridgewater (267) have topped 211 passing yards against the Vikings. In this stretch only Andy Dalton (3) and Tom Brady (2) have had multi-touchdown games.
Running Back
Alvin Kamara was a little disappointing last week, but he still had eight targets for 5/51/1 and 12 carries for 16 yards and another touchdown. Expectations sure were high when considering eight receptions, 67 combined yards and two touchdowns is a “bad” day. Kamara has the highest Week 16 running back projection and we all know he needs to be a priority for our lineups.
On FanDuel, Kamara checks in with a $15,000 price tag while Latavius Murray gets a healthy discount by comparison at $8,500. DraftKings give Murray provides even steeper savings coming in at $4,800 which is less than half of the $11,400 salary figure for Kamara.
Murray is effective in all facets of the game and does have a red zone presence. He will be on the field for 30-40% of the snaps and starting with Week 10 he has had every running back carry and all but one target that did not go to Kamara.
Wide Receiver
Emmanuel Sanders is basically the last man standing, however, we know that Brees does not play favorites in the red zone and that means Lil’ Jordan Humphrey, Juwan Johnson and Tommylee Lewis are all live for a touchdown, but not many targets can be projected to any one individually. On the season this trio has combined for 15 targets resulting in five receptions for 50 yards and a score which occurred last week courtesy of Humphries.
Marquez Callaway (knee) was activated from the injured reserve Thursday after missing three games. In a corresponding move, Lewis was waived at the same time. Technically, Callaway is the most accomplished receiver available after Sanders, but we will have to see how healthy and effective he is after missing time. On both FanDuel and DraftKings the pricing algorithm missed him as he is a the minimum salary on both sites. This is particularly enticing on DraftKings where he is $200.
We need to remember that Callaway is an undrafted rookie out of Tennessee who has played in just four NFL games. He does have 19 targets for 15/136/0, but this is more of a price play than anything else. Keep a close eye to see if he is even active and of course if there is any hint about his potential playing time.
Tight End
Jared Cook should be thrilled to have Brees back since he has developed a nice touchdown connection with him in his short time with the Saints. The real question is volume, but it is reasonable to think he should see 5-6 targets on Friday with another 2-3 in achievable upside.
Adam Trautman seems to be the TE2, but of course Josh Hill is always lurking as is triple threat and the apple of Sean Payton‘s eye Taysom Hill.
Defense/Special Teams
Minnesota has allowed 17 sacks in their last five games along with seven fumbles and two interceptions. New Orleans is sixth in the league with 2.9 sacks per game and they are fifth with 21 takeaways. On DraftKings this unit is very much in play at $4,200.
Friday Afternoon DraftKings Showdown + FanDuel Single Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and also for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those of you who are taking the MME approach, remember that correlation with your lineups is key. This means matching a receiver or two if you have a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their signal-caller.
EMac’s Week 16 Friday Afternoon Football DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Rankings
Notable Inactives: MIN Kyle Rudolph, C.J. Ham, Alexander Mattison NO Tre’Quan Smith
Week 16 Friday Afternoon Football Top 10 NFL DFS Picks
- Alvin Kamara:Â No Thomas makes this an easy choice.
- Dalvin Cook:Â Should see 30-ish opportunities, but it won’t be easy.
- Justin Jefferson:Â Hard to go with either quarterback just yet.
- Kirk Cousins:Â Tiny edge for me because we know he is healthy and likely will have to throw in the second half.
- Adam Thielen:Â Swap with Jefferson if you have a preference, it gets tight after the running backs.
- Emmanuel Sanders:Â Likely target leader after Kamara.
- Drew Brees:Â Zero rushing upside and the Saints do have two red zone rushing threats.
- Will Lutz/Dan Bailey:Â Woo Hoo, kickers!
- Tyler Conklin: Take the savings and popularity discount from Smith.
- Marquez Callaway:Â DraftKings only at $200 if he is active.
Week 16 Friday Afternoon Football Secondary NFL DFS Picks
- New Orleans D/ST:Â Should be an over under of 3.5 combined sacks and turnovers and I would shade towards the over.
- Latavius Murray:Â We can play him with Kamara or as a direct leverage gambit.
- Irv Smith:Â Likely will be the “consensus” cheap guy.
- Juwan Johnson/Lil’Jordan Humphrey: Touchdown hunting at its finest.
- Taysom Hill:Â At this price we really need him to replace Brees in the first half or get two touchdowns somehow.
Week 16 Friday Afternoon Football Lottery Tickets NFL DFS Picks
- Chad Beebe:Â Cheap on DraftKings, on FanDuel he would really need to score.
- Minnesota D/ST:Â Just not a big play crew, but anything can happing in a single game.
- Adam Trautman:Â Worthy of his own line.
- Josh Hill:Â Troll touchdown specialist.
- C.J. Ham:Â Would need a lucky wheel route or broken screen pass.
- Ameer Abdullah:Â DraftKings only at $200 with Mattison out.
- Olabisi Johnson, Michael Burton, Dwayne Washington and Mike Boone:Â The DFS version of coal in our stocking. Happy Holidays!
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